Brady the 50 Pass per Game Gunslinger

[PatsWickedPissah]

Great article on the unprecedented dominant stats when TFB is asked (too often!) to carry the team.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...atriots/2015/09/tom_brady_nfls_top_gunslinger

"The Patriots are 15-7 (.682) when Brady passes the ball 50 or more times, including the postseason. Every other team in modern NFL history (since 1960) has combined to go 100-386-6 (.209) in this situation. The Brady Patriots have singularly won 13 percent of all the 50-attempt victories during the past 55 years of professional football. Lamonica, by the way, never attempted 50 passes in a game.

Victory in these bombing campaigns is difficult for two reasons: First, it’s usually a sign of desperation. Most NFL teams tend to pass the ball that often only when they’re down big. Second, desperate quarterbacks tend to throw interceptions, sometimes multiple. And teams simply don’t win when they throw interceptions.

Brady and the Patriots, however, are utterly unique in their ability to win these games: Brady is the career leader in 50-attempt games (22), 50-attempt wins (15) and 50-attempt winning percentage (.682).

Nobody else is close.

Peyton Manning is second with 17 50-attempt games, and he’s just 4-13 (.235) in those contests."

Aaron Rogers has never had to do this, not even once.

 

[NashuaPats]

Great article on the unprecedented dominant stats when TFB is asked (too often!) to carry the team.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...atriots/2015/09/tom_brady_nfls_top_gunslinger

"The Patriots are 15-7 (.682) when Brady passes the ball 50 or more times, including the postseason. Every other team in modern NFL history (since 1960) has combined to go 100-386-6 (.209) in this situation. The Brady Patriots have singularly won 13 percent of all the 50-attempt victories during the past 55 years of professional football. Lamonica, by the way, never attempted 50 passes in a game.

Victory in these bombing campaigns is difficult for two reasons: First, it’s usually a sign of desperation. Most NFL teams tend to pass the ball that often only when they’re down big. Second, desperate quarterbacks tend to throw interceptions, sometimes multiple. And teams simply don’t win when they throw interceptions.

Brady and the Patriots, however, are utterly unique in their ability to win these games: Brady is the career leader in 50-attempt games (22), 50-attempt wins (15) and 50-attempt winning percentage (.682).

Nobody else is close.

Peyton Manning is second with 17 50-attempt games, and he’s just 4-13 (.235) in those contests."

Aaron Rogers has never had to do this, not even once.

Wow! Just more evidence that

 

[Clonamery]

Play to your strength, goddammit.

 

[Tunescribe]

"But ... But ground and pound is REAL football!"

 

[Concussion Protocol]

The fact that the Patriots have such a short-range-based passing attack also leads to more attempts and completions. I'll say something that's never been said before: The Patriots use the pass as an extension of the running game. That doesn't take away from Brady's greatness or add to it, it's just a key factor in driving up those numbers. Rodgers and Ben are much more likely to drive 80 yards in 5 plays than Tom is.

 

[nabwong]

Just wanna add that Brady doesn't just pass short for the sake of it. He takes what the D gives him. He makes the best decision possible every snap. The Pats opponents just happen to give us a lot of short yardage. Also, combined with our management of the salary cap, we are unlikely to pay for a Dez Cryant. So we get UDFA and 7th round QB-converted WR and rely on their strength; quickness in the first 5-10 yards.

 

[Angelpats]

I will say this. I hate seeing Blount or boldin running for zero or negative yards and then we go three and out.

 

[JMC00]

The fact that the Patriots have such a short-range-based passing attack also leads to more attempts and completions.

It also leads to long clock killing drives which is a bonus. But it also raises the chances of a turnover.

I'll say something that's never been said before: The Patriots use the pass as an extension of the running game.

Not sure if you are being serious with that first sentence but people have said this before. Yet I just don't get it. Why run the ball when the GOAT is locked in and getting good protection?

Rodgers and Ben are much more likely to drive 80 yards in 5 plays than Tom is.

This is not entirely true.

Since '10 Brady has had 13 such drives and Roethlisburger has had 13. So over the past 5 seasons Brady has been as just as likely to have a 5 play 80 yard drive as Roethlisburger.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

It also leads to long clock killing drives which is a bonus. But it also raises the chances of a turnover.


Not sure if you are being serious with that first sentence but people have said this before. Yet I just don't get it. Why run the ball when the GOAT is locked in and getting good protection?



This is not entirely true.

Since '10 Brady has had 13 such drives and Roethlisburger has had 13. So over the past 5 seasons Brady has been as just as likely to have a 5 play 80 yard drive as Roethlisburger.

Not serious with that "extension of the running game" line. Total cliche.

I'm impressed that you were able to find those final stats, and surprised. I was just going with a random yardage/plays number based on career yards per completion and yards per attempt, in which Brady trails Aaron and Ben by a decent amount.

 

[shmessy]

That's great, but he's a 38 year old man and other teams have rushers. It's a long season and we are 2 games in. Let's have a running attack also, please.

That .682 percentage for games of over 50 passes is extremely impressive, but well below his career winning percentage of .775.

In summary, those stupid 50+ pass games screwed up his winning pct. by bringing it down from .786 to .775.....grrrrrr......

So, yes, I'd prefer under 50 per game (I'm a greedy pig when it comes to wins).

 

[turkeyneck]

Peyton Manning is second with 17 50-attempt games, and he’s just 4-13 (.235) in those contests."

 

[sevengables_2207]

I think that the match-ups have played a role in the lack of a running game the first two weeks. The Steelers and the Bills are much easier to throw against than run against. I think the Jaguars are also stingier vs. the run as well IIRC.

I think as the season goes along and league-wide players start to deal with the usual wear-tear, the Patriots running game will pick up as the weather turns nastier, the young interior line get more experience, and some vets return (e.g. Stork, Wendell).

 

[Ross12]

I would say at this time that a gaudy number of pass attempts is just as much playing to the strength of Brady as it is playing to the strength of the inexperienced offensive line. Brady getting the ball out quick for most of the plays means the linemen don't have to pass protect very long. If they ran more deep shots or run plays, they would be asking the linemen to pass protect longer or open holes, which isn't a strength right now. Hopefully by the second half of the year, when Stork and Wendell should both be fully healthy, and Mason & Jackson are more experienced, they can start blowing open lanes for Blount and Lewis.

I would also add that Brady is more effective at passing more right now because he can diagnose when the defense simply doesn't have their s*** together (which is more likely right now since these early games have effectively become pseudo-preseason).

 

[turkeyneck]

The Patriots use the pass as an extension of the running game.

Brady is why the Patriots can do this. It is his mental quickness, and his short-range accuracy, that allows him to make 50 throws a game and not have 5 pick-6s. It's the part of his game that was immediately apparent when he first came into the NFL, and was such a stark contrast to the slow-processing of Drew Bledsoe (and pretty much everyone else, to not single out Drew).

 

[scott99]

Let's not forget the playoffs too, in the history of the NFL playoffs, QBs are 7-28 when attempting 50+ pass attempts in a game. Brady is 4-1, the rest of the NFL is 3-27. Think about that, the rest of the NFL, in the history of the playoffs has 3 wins in that situation. Brady has 4 by himself.

 

[deters]

Fine and dandy but I'd rather his attempts stay around 35-40 tops. Games like this dictate higher attempts which I get but still guy is 38.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

Brady is why the Patriots can do this. It is his mental quickness, and his short-range accuracy, that allows him to make 50 throws a game and not have 5 pick-6s.

Yes, and all that adds up to some high-volume pass attempt games that are anything but desperate.

 

[BobDigital]

I do hope we don't see Brady throw 50 times that often in the regular season. If you have to do it to win so be it though.

 

[scott99]

Brady is why the Patriots can do this. It is his mental quickness, and his short-range accuracy, that allows him to make 50 throws a game and not have 5 pick-6s. It's the part of his game that was immediately apparent when he first came into the NFL, and was such a stark contrast to the slow-processing of Drew Bledsoe (and pretty much everyone else, to not single out Drew).

Exactly, it's why Mallett could never succeed in this system and Garappolo probably can. Have to not just process it quickly, have to have a quick release. You can still have mental quickness but a long windup, long release.

 

[hambone1818]

The fact that the Patriots have such a short-range-based passing attack also leads to more attempts and completions. I'll say something that's never been said before: The Patriots use the pass as an extension of the running game. That doesn't take away from Brady's greatness or add to it, it's just a key factor in driving up those numbers. Rodgers and Ben are much more likely to drive 80 yards in 5 plays than Tom is.

This is why I laugh at yards/attempt being a factor in passer rating--certainly as it pertains to Brady. Maybe for the mere mortal QB's they need to have a healthy Y/att. because they're not as accurate, but Brady finds the open receiver and gets the ball to the chains so damn often; he rarely takes deep shots (at least in his pre- and post-Moss days) and for that reason doesn't hit the HR's that pad the Y/att. stats. But he doesn't need it, because he methodically goes 11-of-13 for 80 yards and a TD all...day...long.

I honestly think they should integrate first downs/att. into the metrics. Listen, Flacco can throw his jump ball and go 1-for-4 on it for 60 yards, but two or three of those shots may have killed a drive. Meanwhile Brady's getting a first down every other throw and the team slowly marches down the field as if it's a casual stroll to the end zone.