I'm going to write a "No Duh" post for a general thread discussion about defense and whether football has radically changed toward offense in the last 10 years. This is going to sound like a defense of the Patriots expending resources on D, and it is, but it comes from my preference for watching defense anyway. I know a lot of fans, especially younger fans, love offense. This may have to do with fantasy football, which I don't play. It may have to do with going away from hard hitting. I've actually stopped watching college football except for maybe 6 games a year of my favorite school because I don't see the point in people running up and down the field, especially the B12 (I am also done with all Big12 QBs and WRs because these guys never see any resistance in college and they are the source of a ton of draft busts).
Offenses have changed, obviously, with the rules, but defenses have adapted as well. McDaniel in Miami is a genius. But his timing offense was throttled yesterday by the Buffalo Bills who are severely lacking in the defensive backfield. Good defense still wins half the games. And we have a lot of examples to see this. This doesn't mean a team with a bad offense can make the playoffs. You need some semblance of mediocrity to do so.
I'm looking at the last 10 Super Bowls and it seems that defense won half the games, offense won the other half, and some were just expertly played by both sides, while others were badly played by both sides.
Last 10:
XLVIII | Feb. 2, 2014 | DEFENSE DESTROYED GREATEST OFFENSE IN HISTORY | Seattle 43, Denver 8 |
XLIX | Feb. 1, 2015 | EVEN | New England 28, Seattle 24 |
50 | Feb. 7, 2016 | DEFENSE DESTROYED HIGHFLYING CAROLINA O | Denver 24, Carolina 10 |
LI | Feb. 5, 2017 | 1st Half Atlanta D, 2nd half Patriots D, EVEN | New England 34, Atlanta 28 |
LII | Feb. 4, 2018 | OFFENSE | Philadelphia 41, New England 33 |
LIII | Feb. 3, 2019 | DEFENSE | New England 13, Los Angeles Rams 3 |
LIV | Feb. 2, 2020 | OFFENSE | Kansas City 31, San Francisco 20 |
LV | Feb. 7, 2021 | DEFENSE DESTROYED KC | Tampa Bay 31, Kansas City 9 |
LVI | Feb. 13, 2022 | BOTH TEAMS INEPT ON BOTH SIDES OF BALL | Los Angeles Rams 23, Cincinnati 20 |
LVII | Feb. 12, 2023 | OFFENSE | Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 35 |
When teams have played for all the marbles in the last 10 years, it's been a 50/50 proposition as to which side of the ball is more important. Top 10 All-Time offenses have failed to win 4 times in the last 10 years, and sometimes they have failed miserably.
So for me, I do recognize the invention of new kinds of offenses in the NFL. Miami is a testament to it. McDaniel is really maximizing his approach, and it truly reminds me of Bill O'Brien in 2012. But--the thing is--we haven't seen any success with such offense outside of Andy Reid last year.
The claim we know for certain that the new way is better is a claim lacking evidence. I do accept that many prefer it. I too like offenses that take advantage in those ways. I'm sure the Patriots do too. But when it comes to style and aesthetics, give me a great defense matched with a decent offense over a great offense matched with a decent defense. I think the defense wins these games more often than not. Based on the evidence at least.