Assessing BB's drafting

[Fencer]

It's the time of year to have discussions about BB's drafting break out in various threads. This is my attempt to consolidate those a bit.

There are stats out there suggesting the Patriots have been at or near the top in the league in number of productive players gotten via the draft, whether productive just on the Pats on elsewhere. And even with Maroney, Meriweather, and the TEs, I imagine the first round can be shown to have been a good overall success.

I invite people to post detailed stats on those issues if they like.

So if BB's done anything wrong drafting -- other than particular draftee mis-evaluations, of which there no doubt have been many -- it would have to be in a failure to bring in sufficient big stars. E.g., if the price of the trading down is missing various Clay Matthews types AND if those guys would indeed be huge assets to the Patriots, there can be a discussion.

I'd say the elite/Pro Bowl types of players that BB drafted and who remain on the roster are:

• Brady -- the knock is that he was a lucky pick, long ago
• McCourty -- the knock is that he could regress
• Mayo -- the knock is that his big plays have been confined to preseason
• Mankins -- the knock is that he's only a guard
• Gostowski -- the knock is that he's only a kicker
• Wilfork -- I can't think of a knock even for the purpose of discussion
• Vollmer -- the knock is that he's only a right tackle

Light, Koppen, Gronk, Hernandez, and Mesko are all in the discussion too, but either too young or too old to make the top list. Many would add Chung as well.

I'd further say that Welker is an elite vet who BB acquired at a bargain cash price by paying in draft picks.

Are there other teams out there who've accomplished more than that in gathering elite players together?

 

[BradyFTW!]

It's the time of year to have discussions about BB's drafting break out in various threads. This is my attempt to consolidate those a bit.

There are stats out there suggesting the Patriots have been at or near the top in the league in number of productive players gotten via the draft, whether productive just on the Pats on elsewhere. And even with Maroney, Meriweather, and the TEs, I imagine the first round can be shown to have been a good overall success.

I invite people to post detailed stats on those issues if they like.

So if BB's done anything wrong drafting -- other than particular draftee mis-evaluations, of which there no doubt have been many -- it would have to be in a failure to bring in sufficient big stars. E.g., if the price of the trading down is missing various Clay Matthews types AND if those guys would indeed be huge assets to the Patriots, there can be a discussion.

I'd say the elite/Pro Bowl types of players that BB drafted and who remain on the roster are:

• Brady -- the knock is that he was a lucky pick, long ago
• McCourty -- the knock is that he could regress
• Mayo -- the knock is that his big plays have been confined to preseason
• Mankins -- the knock is that he's only a guard
• Gostowski -- the knock is that he's only a kicker
• Wilfork -- I can't think of a knock even for the purpose of discussion
• Vollmer -- the knock is that he's only a right tackle

Light, Koppen, Gronk, Hernandez, and Mesko are all in the discussion too, but either too young or too old to make the top list. Many would add Chung as well.

I'd further say that Welker is an elite vet who BB acquired at a bargain cash price by paying in draft picks.

Are there other teams out there who've accomplished more than that in gathering elite players together?

Maroney, Meriweather and the TEs were all productive starters for 3+ years in the NFL. You hope for more from our first round picks, but none of them were busts- only Maroney was even especially close to being one, and that was mostly because of injury.

If you want to see busts, look at how the Colts and Raiders do in the first round. Guys like Meriweather, Graham, and Watson, who go on to sign fairly lucrative second contracts once their deals are up, are reasonable picks at least.

 

[Kasmir]

Posting this again. Until somebody here makes a evaluation supported by actually looking at more than just the Patriots, I'll consider this definitive:

Using information from the great folks at pro-football-reference.com – or, as we like to call it, "The Bible" – we broke down the 10 drafts from 2001-2010 looking for an impartial answer to who was the best. Who drafted the most stars, the most longtime starters, the most promising young players? Who had the most players from their drafts active in the league last year? Who was the best?

When it was all said and done, there was an easy and not-so-surprising answer: the New England Patriots.

They had the second-most Pro Bowlers, 11, trailing only San Diego (12). They had the most players with a career "Approximate Value" of 50+ as determined by Pro Football Reference's formula that takes into account position, playing time, team success and production (read more about it here). They had the second-most players with career AV of 20 or better. They were tied for third in terms of draftees still active in the league in 2010.

And they did it despite having the best record in the league over that decade, which means having the least amount of actual draft power. It's pretty remarkable feat, and the reason that guys like Mel Kiper and Peter King couched their criticisms of the Patriots' 2011 draft by adding "but it's the Patriots, so it'll probably work out OK."

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Insider

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats are still above average in drafting. You should look at other teams' draft "success" before looking at the Pats. They have some phenomenal drafts (2010, 2003), some horrible drafts (2006, 2009 draft after Mayo, 2000), and a lot of average drafts.

The Pats had a streak in the early 2000s that really gave them a reputation for being excellent drafters. Then the Pats started to lose coaches to be head coaches elsewhere and everyone wanted to copy the Patriots. That meant there were a lot of people trying to draft Patriots type of players making it harder for the Pats to get them. Plus they lost some key scouts.

If you look at the teams that have the reputation for great drafting and they all have had bad years. The Colts haven't hit on a first round draft pick since 2007 and Addai was a flash in the pan.

 

[Deus Irae]

They have hits and misses, just like every other team. Belichick is solid overall. Boneheaded picks like Crable and O'Connell are balanced by strong picks like Hernandez.

As a side note, the 2009 draft has lost some of its luster, I think it's safe to say. It's still not a bad draft, but the end of the Tate era, McKenzie's inability to stick with either the Patriots or Bucs, and the question marks that are Brace and Butler weaken what originally looked to be a very impressive draft. I had no issue with BB taking a flyer on Tate, and I still don't since he'd gotten the team in a position to have 6 picks in rounds 2 and 3, but replacing Tate with Wallace would have meant

Chung
Vollmer
Wallace
Pryor
Edelman

at a minimum, with Brace and Butler there as still having at least a chance.


P.S. I wanted Sean Smith, not Darius Butler, damn it! It's time to end this post before I get genuinely annoyed at what might have been.

 

[Coach42]

The Pats have had some bad drafts the Pats have had more solid drafts. There are probably a few front office people who do a better job evaluating talent than BB and CO. but, whatever BB lacks in personnel decisions he more than makes up for in his coaching. I'll take that trade off every day of the week.

Another thing that BB does that I don't think he really gets credit for is when he makes a bad pick with a higher pick (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) he gives them the same chance to make the team as a street free agent, all he cares about is that the team on the field is better. He doesn't give a **** about the reputation of the player. The latest example being supposed pro bowler Brandon Merriweather not making the team over guys like Josh Barret, Sergio Brown, and Alex Molden.

 

[Coach42]

They have hits and misses, just like every other team. Belichick is solid overall. Boneheaded picks like Crable and O'Connell are balanced by strong picks like Hernandez.

As a side note, the 2009 draft has lost some of its luster, I think it's safe to say. It's still not a bad draft, but the end of the Tate era, McKenzie's inability to stick with either the Patriots or Bucs, and the question marks that are Brace and Butler weaken what originally looked to be a very impressive draft. I had no issue with BB taking a flyer on Tate, and I still don't since he'd gotten the team in a position to have 6 picks in rounds 2 and 3, but replacing Tate with Wallace would have meant

Chung
Vollmer
Wallace
Pryor
Edelman

at a minimum, with Brace and Butler there as still having at least a chance.


P.S. I wanted Sean Smith, not Darius Butler, damn it! It's time to end this post before I get genuinely annoyed at what might have been.

Also you have to take into account the depth at particular positions. Yeah Brandon Tate didn't make the team but in other years he might have. It just so happens this year the WR corp is strong and pretty deep. Obviously Wallace is a better player but that is not to say Tate couldn't go on to have success in this league. He really only got one and a half full training camps under his belt.

 

[Deus Irae]

Also you have to take into account the depth at particular positions. Yeah Brandon Tate didn't make the team but in other years he might have. It just so happens this year the WR corp is strong and pretty deep. Obviously Wallace is a better player but that is not to say Tate couldn't go on to have success in this league. He really only got one and a half full training camps under his belt.

Coach, I was a defender of the Tate pick. I'd understand if Belichick took a flyer on a player like him again in the future, if the circumstances were similar. That being said, we shouldn't deny what we see. Tate doesn't seem have it, and I doubt he's ever going to get it, because what seems to be missing is the type of explosion he needs to make up for his other deficiencies. He's had 3 offseasons with the team, and I think it's fair to evaluate him as a miss at this point.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one, I suspect.

 

[Coach42]

Coach, I was a defender of the Tate pick. I'd understand if Belichick took a flyer on a player like him again in the future, if the circumstances were similar. That being said, we shouldn't deny what we see. Tate doesn't seem have it, and I doubt he's ever going to get it, because what seems to be missing is the type of explosion he needs to make up for his other deficiencies. He's had 3 offseasons with the team, and I think it's fair to evaluate him as a miss at this point.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one, I suspect.

No I really wasn't trying to argue anything with you, simply pointing out that he played a position that was particularly deep this year which probably hastened his departure as much as anything else. I mean if he was drafted by the Rams he probably makes that team this year right? I was just pointing out that consistent quality teams like the Pats etc. will have more "misses" due to the quality of their rosters.

 

[Deus Irae]

No I really wasn't trying to argue anything with you, simply pointing out that he played a position that was particularly deep this year which probably hastened his departure as much as anything else. I mean if he was drafted by the Rams he probably makes that team this year right? I was just pointing out that consistent quality teams like the Pats etc. will have more "misses" due to the quality of their rosters.

I see your point, although I don't necessarily agree with your take on Tate. I think that, without Johnson, the Patriots would have looked for someone else to challenge Tate, because I think his play last year demanded it. Then, when you add Price seemingly outplaying him in camp and exhibition games, I think the writing was on the wall for Mr. Tate.

I think 2007 is the poster child for your argument about a deep team leading to high cut rates (especially when partnered with a weak draft class), but other years have had problems that may be institutional in nature. There was no good excuse for the O'Connell pick, for example, and the Crable pick should never have happened either. Those were obvious failures of scouting and selecting, IMO, and there have been others that fit that same bill.

 

[Joker]

Then, when you add Price seemingly outplaying him in camp and exhibition games, I think the writing was on the wall for Mr. Tate.

this ....and, the new kickoff rule practically made Tate obsolete as a KR

 

[jmt57]

Regarding the original topic - assessing BB's drafting - very recently someone on this forum provided a link to a site that graphically showed all the players from all 32 teams past few drafts; specifically it showed how many players were still on those teams, and how many were still in the NFL.

Since this is the topic of conversation, if anybody has a link to that article, please post it here so that we (I) can take another look. . .

 

[italia44]

The Pats are still above average in drafting. You should look at other teams' draft "success" before looking at the Pats. They have some phenomenal drafts (2010, 2003), some horrible drafts (2006, 2009 draft after Mayo, 2000), and a lot of average drafts.

The Pats had a streak in the early 2000s that really gave them a reputation for being excellent drafters. Then the Pats started to lose coaches to be head coaches elsewhere and everyone wanted to copy the Patriots. That meant there were a lot of people trying to draft Patriots type of players making it harder for the Pats to get them. Plus they lost some key scouts.

If you look at the teams that have the reputation for great drafting and they all have had bad years. The Colts haven't hit on a first round draft pick since 2007 and Addai was a flash in the pan.

The other things I'd like to add to this excellent post is the number of teams that are playing the 3-4 defense since the "glory days_ of 2001-2004.Much more competition for 3-4 LB's and man-corners.The thing I would fault BB about is his sticking to drafting small,shifty DB's,when the trend around the league has been for drafting bigger Wide Receivers.....he just seemed too slow to change....I still have nightmares over all those "fade" passes that killed us,the last 5yrs or so.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The other things I'd like to add to this excellent post is the number of teams that are playing the 3-4 defense since the "glory days_ of 2001-2004.Much more competition for 3-4 LB's and man-corners.The thing I would fault BB about is his sticking to drafting small,shifty DB's,when the trend around the league has been for drafting bigger Wide Receivers.....he just seemed too slow to change....I still have nightmares over all those "fade" passes that killed us,the last 5yrs or so.

FWIW, I think Belichick did that in direct response to the "point of emphasis" that Polian rammed through the competition committee after 2004. After that, it made a weird kind of sense to go for smaller, agile guys, since they couldn't be physical anyways. That said, I'm glad that they've since gone and signed Bodden and drafted McCourty and Dowling.

Of course, I'm still holding out hope that Butler could turn into a good NFL player, so wtf do I know

 

[Fencer]

Posting this again. Until somebody here makes a evaluation supported by actually looking at more than just the Patriots, I'll consider this definitive:



Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Insider

That's a pretty good link, or looked like one when I checked it some time back.

As before, I have a small quibble in that I wonder whether the "drafting power" claim was rigorously checked. But if not wholly true, it's probably pretty close. Modifiers include:

The Pats got a couple of first round picks in for Bledsoe and Seymour, and other high picks for Tebucky Jones and Matt Cassell. They traded 2nds for Welker and Dillon. Lesser picks-for-players trades were also in the mix, as well as comp picks.. There also were future year rollover pick trades that may not have been entirely in the period covered. (And does it include the pick-for-BB "trade"?)

 

[Kasmir]

That's a pretty good link, or looked like one when I checked it some time back.

As before, I have a small quibble in that I wonder whether the "drafting power" claim was rigorously checked. But if not wholly true, it's probably pretty close. Modifiers include:

The Pats got a couple of first round picks in for Bledsoe and Seymour, and other high picks for Tebucky Jones and Matt Cassell. They traded 2nds for Welker and Dillon. Lesser picks-for-players trades were also in the mix, as well as comp picks.. There also were future year rollover pick trades that may not have been entirely in the period covered. (And does it include the pick-for-BB "trade"?)

One great point brought up in an article is that in evaluating drafting prowess, the career of a player after they leave their original team needs to be taken into account when evaluating the pick. Not being able to sign a player after their initial contract expires or replacing a player with a better player doesn't mean the original draft pick was a "bust". Reiss in his current column is acting as if letting Meriweather go this year means he's a bust, but not only did the Patrots get several good years from the pick, Meriweather will undoubtedly stay in the league and probably start somewhere. It was still a good pick.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

He's been good, but not great. I'd still probably take him over anyone in the league, but that aura of "Belichick the Mastermind Talent Evaluator" has worn off with some poor drafts from 06-08 and some poor signings.

The drafts from 06-08 killed this team. To get virtually nothing out of Wheatley, Crable, Meriweather, Maroney, and Chad Jackson set the team back. 06-08 was a key period for this team to try to reload while it still had veteran talent. Guys like Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison were nearing the end but you figured they still had a few more years left and the young kids could develop under them and eventually take over. But it didn't happen. None of those guys adequately filled the shoes of the guys that left/retired/were dealt, and this team was left with a significant talent drain, especially on defense. The only good player they came away with was Mayo, who was a top ten pick. Even the 2009 draft which at first looked pretty promising has turned out to be pretty disappointing. We all had higher hopes for Brace, Butler, and Tate. Chung and Vollmer were good pickups, but Brace, Butler, and Tate all look like pretty bad misses, especially when you see Mike Wallace went a pick after Tate.

When you go back an look at those drafts, you're just left with so many what-ifs and what could have been. What if instead of Maroney and Chad Jackson they came away with Maurice Jones Drew and Greg Jennings or Brandon Marshall? What if they took Jon Beason, David Harris, or Lamar Woodley in 07 instead of Meriweather? What if we took Wallace instead of Tate in 08? Of course hindsight is 20/20, but the talent was there. Bill just missed out on it.

You can say that Bill has no one to blame but himself -- after all he is the one who tried to replace Asante with Fernando Bryant and Delthea O'Neal then followed it up with Wheatley/Wilhite/Butler in the draft before finally getting McCourty. He is the one that traded Seymour -- one of the cornerstones of our defense and one of the best defensive lineman in all of football -- and never really replaced him over a two year period until he traded for Haynesworth this off-season. And he is the one who has only drafted a linebacker once in the first round during his tenure in NE and never drafted pass rusher in the first or even developed one from the draft.

But even so, not many people have been better than Bill when it comes to drafting. He's had his share of bad picks, and the law of averages really caught up with the Pats later in the decade after they killed it in the draft earlier in the decade. He's the best in the business at collecting draft picks and turning current picks into higher picks the following year.

The only complaints that I've had are the reluctance to trade up and grab an elite player every once in a while and the lack of drafting/developing the front 7. Not saying he should do it every year, but when you have so many draft assets year in and year out, sometimes you've got to cash them and go up and get your Demarcus Ware type of OLB or Richard Seymour type of DL. I also think Bill has been far too passive in rebuilding the front 7. Besides Mayo and Wilfork, Bill has not invested heavily enough in the front 7 and it's showed in recent years. The linebacking corps and the defensive line have both lacked playmakers and the pass rush has been subpar. Imagine they went Beason in 07 and Mayo in 08? You'd be set at LB for at least the next 5-7 years while also giving them time to learn under a veteran like Bruschi.

Bill has been so good in the first round throughout his tenure in New England that you wonder why he hasn't traded up a bit more. A lot of people are afraid of trading up and giving up the assets and then being saddled with a bust. But with BB's track record in the first round, I'd say it's 90-10 or 80-20 at the worst that you're going to get a great football player.

2008 is the perfect example. Look at all the trash around Jerod Mayo -- Gholston, Harvey, Chris Williams, Gosder Cherilus, Leodis McKelvin, etc. But Bill identified Mayo and took him, and he has been by far the best defensive player taken in that draft. Better than Chris Long, Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Gholston, Rivers, etc. It makes you wonder why he doesn't trade up more because the odds heavily favor him hitting big on the guy he drafts.

 

[DarrylS]

What we have seen in the past couple of years is an obvious, yet subtle change..

With Pioli gone, not sure if he was the problem, and Caserio ascendency to that throne there has been a movement afoot to draft college team captains, not that they are necessarily untainted, but have been shown confidence by their peers and coaches. If you are a coaches son, you move up 2 or 3 notches..

What has always impressed me was his ability to find UDFA's, who fit this system and wind up being very good "blue collar" NFL players... Guyton, BJGE, Tarpinian etc all come to mind. This typifies this meritocracy, that if you come to play, love football you stand a better chance.

 

[bigfandan]

Looking back, 2006, 2007, 2008 drafts would have to be graded F, do you agree?

The reason: the 3 drafts contributed very little to the team today. With 3/#1, 2/#2, 3/#3, 4/#4, and total of 26 draftees, only Mayo, and 2 special teamers (Gostkowski and Slater) made this year's roster. If you factor into trades, trade value was insignificant (I believe Maroney was for a 5th and Thomas was a 7th).

I believe F is a fair grade if you have to invest 26 picks including 3 #1s and 12priority picks (1-4 rounds) to net one position player (Mayo) that's a keeper (knock on wood).


2006 Draft: 1 Maroney/2Chad Jackson/3Dave Thomas/4Garrett Mills/ - very little value from that draft today (10 drafted, only /4Gostkowski is on roster)

2007 Draft:1 Meriweather/4Kareem Brown/5 Clint Oldenburg (9 drafted, 0 on roster) Zero value to today's team

2008 Draft: 1Mayo/2Wheatley/3Crable/3O'Connell/4Wilhite (7 drafted, 2 on roster /5Slater)

 

[LesPaul]

2006 and 2007 were the worst draft for any nfl team. Disregarding trades, the Pats have 1 player left from those drafts. That is terrible drafting.