The cost of trading up to draft a QB

[The Gr8est]

OK, there has been a lot of disagreement regarding the Pats trading out of the #3 spot for a haul or stay put and draft a QB.

I am on the side of those who think trading down should be considered.

Others have suggested that that would mean the Pats would have to trade a king’s ransom in the future to get their franchise QB.

I don’t take that as a fact, but I think this is a worthy discussion for it’s own thread.

For starters I am posting an ESPN article that shows all of the trade ups for QBs, but only goes to 2021. We can add more context as this thread develops.

All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback

From the bold moves that paid off -- like Patrick Mahomes -- to the many that didn't, here's a rundown of each QB trade-up from the common draft era.

www.espn.com

 

[TheRainMaker]

Pats need to stay put and draft a QB.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

The Bills got Tre'Davious White (CB), Tremaine Edmunds (LB), Dion Dawkins (T), Zay Jones (WR), Siran Neal (CB) for the Patrick Mahomes trade with the Chiefs they got An all pro, a 2x pro bowler and 1x pro bowl and 3 high levels starters they hit it out of the park and they still lost.

The Bills basically got it all right when it came to the picks and they still lost, it just proves if you trade and the QB you traded can play even if you get 3 pro bowlers you still lose.

The Bills would be getting crucified now if they didn't luck into Josh Allen a year later.

It doesn't matter who and what you get from the trade, if you give away a bonafide top 10 QB you lose.

I would rather have Mahomes than White, Edmunds, Dawkins and Josh Allen combined, they gave away one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game for Phillip Rivers with athletic ability.

 

[TommyD4207]

Pats need to stay put and draft a QB.

I get this thought process.

But what if there are no good QBs? What if it's a 2021 situation? What if the only potentially good QB in the draft is the first pick, and the rest are just overhyped busts? What will you be saying in 3 years?

 

[mgteich]

I get this thought process.

But what if there are no good QBs? What if it's a 2021 situation? What if the only potentially good QB in the draft is the first pick, and the rest are just overhyped busts? What will you be saying in 3 years?

Yup, the only possibilities are top franchise QB's or busts? I strongly reject that idea. Personally, I think that if Jones and Fields were well coached, both could long-term starters. Not top 5's in the NFL, but solid starters, say top 15.

There is little reason to believe that we will be able to acquire a top 15 QB in 2025. It is most unlikely that we will have anywhere near the draft prospects that we have this year.

Sure, we could say potential Mahomes quality or we don't draft a QB in the first round.

IMO, the staff will do the right thing, which WILL include a QB in the top 10 picks, even one that they HOPE to coach up to have a floor of top 15.

 

[TommyD4207]

Yup, the only possibilities are top franchise QB's or busts? I strongly reject that idea. Personally, I think that if Jones and Fields were well coached, both could long-term starters. Not top 5's in the NFL, but solid starters, say top 15.

There is little reason to believe that we will be able to acquire a top 15 QB in 2025. It is most unlikely that we will have anywhere near the draft prospects that we have this year.

Sure, we could say potential Mahomes quality or we don't draft a QB in the first round.

IMO, the staff will do the right thing, which WILL include a QB in the top 10 picks, even one that they HOPE to coach up to have a floor of top 15.

There are 2 QBs in next year's draft, in my mind, that will have as much chance to hit as the 6 or 7 in this year's, if not better. If you get Quinn Ewers or Carson Beck in next year's draft, I think you're in the same position as this year - except maybe you can use a mid-first pick instead of #3 overall.

I'm not falling for the banana in the tailpipe that I fell for in 2021. Fields and Jones are both abject busts. There's not enough coaching in the world that can make them not do dumb **** on the field.

 

[Ross12]

It is an interesting thought experiment. Take the QB now and play him through the growing pains of trying to build a roster (or sit him for some period of time), or trade down and build up a roster, then trade up a year or two later once the roster is ready for a QB?

For a can't miss prospect, you gotta take that guy - but otherwise, there's also merit in building up the roster first and then hitting on QB later. The biggest advantage is having that QB on a rookie contract while the team is good, so if you have a nice roster built and ready to go, it's easier to trade a future first or two for a QB in a trade up later and then supplement those lost picks with free agent signings while your QB is cheap for 5 years.

Let's say they trade down and accumulate 3 firsts plus a second - that's a lot of capital to fix your team in a short period of time. Maybe you find a diamond in the rough QB along the way, but if not, you may be able to get a really nice roster built by 2026 at the same time the rest of the division is coming down to earth, and then move up for a top QB you like at that time by trading future capital (2027, 2028 first rounders).

 

[mgteich]

It is an interesting thought experiment. Take the QB now and play him through the growing pains of trying to build a roster (or sit him for some period of time), or trade down and build up a roster, then trade up a year or two later once the roster is ready for a QB?

For a can't miss prospect, you gotta take that guy - but otherwise, there's also merit in building up the roster first and then hitting on QB later. The biggest advantage is having that QB on a rookie contract while the team is good, so if you have a nice roster built and ready to go, it's easier to trade a future first or two for a QB in a trade up later and then supplement those lost picks with free agent signings while your QB is cheap for 5 years.

Let's say they trade down and accumulate 3 firsts plus a second - that's a lot of capital to fix your team in a short period of time. Maybe you find a diamond in the rough QB along the way, but if not, you may be able to get a really nice roster built by 2026 at the same time the rest of the division is coming down to earth, and then move up for a top QB you like at that time by trading future capital (2027, 2028 first rounders).

3 firsts and a second, including which 2024 #1 pick?

I'm, fine getting Nix or Penix plus 2 firsts and a second, as long as the team really doesn't believe in their ability to coach any of the top 4 into being our franchise QB.

 

[jmt57]

OK, there has been a lot of disagreement regarding the Pats trading out of the #3 spot for a haul or stay put and draft a QB.

I am on the side of those who think trading down should be considered.

Others have suggested that that would mean the Pats would have to trade a king’s ransom in the future to get their franchise QB.

I don’t take that as a fact, but I think this is a worthy discussion for it’s own thread.

For starters I am posting an ESPN article that shows all of the trade ups for QBs, but only goes to 2021. We can add more context as this thread develops.

All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback

From the bold moves that paid off -- like Patrick Mahomes -- to the many that didn't, here's a rundown of each QB trade-up from the common draft era.

www.espn.com

By my count it's approximately a 2:1 ratio in favor of the trade up being a bad decision over being a good one. So while the ones that do work out (Mahomes, Allen, Jackson) get lots of attention, it's actually usually the wrong move.

Another thing to consider though is that drafting a QB in the first round is not a 50-50 proposition. I don't recall the exact percentage from previous threads, but if the overall worked out/didn't work out proportion of all QBs selected in the first round is 33%, then the percentage of trade ups working out follows as expected, in pretty much the same proportion.

Some of those that did not pan out were unforeseen. Nobody that I am aware of predicted Teddy Bridgewater's injury, Vick and Watson's off-field issues, or Ryan Leaf's train wreck. Experts rated Brady Quinn to be a top-10 pick; writers and fans thought the Browns got a steal when he was available at #22. Hindsight is simple. For whatever reason, accurate evaluations of QB draft prospects is not.

 

[VrabelJr]

By my count it's approximately a 2:1 ratio in favor of the trade up being a bad decision over being a good one. So while the ones that do work out (Mahomes, Allen, Jackson) get lots of attention, it's actually usually the wrong move.

Another thing to consider though is that drafting a QB in the first round is not a 50-50 proposition. I don't recall the exact percentage from previous threads, but if the overall worked out/didn't work out proportion of all QBs selected in the first round is 33%, then the percentage of trade ups working out follows as expected, in pretty much the same proportion.

Some of those that did not pan out were unforeseen. Nobody that I am aware of predicted Teddy Bridgewater's injury, Vick and Watson's off-field issues, or Ryan Leaf's train wreck. Experts rated Brady Quinn to be a top-10 pick; writers and fans thought the Browns got a steal when he was available at #22. Hindsight is simple. For whatever reason, accurate evaluations of QB draft prospects is not.

I agree. Perennially bad franchises try to force a QB pick when it isn’t there. If 5-6 QBs go in the first round the already good teams are going to get even better when they pick up the real talent at other positions.

 

[Brotherblues]

I agree. Perennially bad franchises try to force a QB pick when it isn’t there. If 5-6 QBs go in the first round the already good teams are going to get even better when they pick up the real talent at other positions.

In my heart I know this. And yet my heart still wants a QB. So it goes.

Think of this: Imagine if the Jete had decided to not Jete for a second and picked not Darnold and Wilson, but Denzel Ward and J'Mar Chase.

 

[The Gr8est]

The Bills got Tre'Davious White (CB), Tremaine Edmunds (LB), Dion Dawkins (T), Zay Jones (WR), Siran Neal (CB) for the Patrick Mahomes trade with the Chiefs they got An all pro, a 2x pro bowler and 1x pro bowl and 3 high levels starters they hit it out of the park and they still lost.

The Bills basically got it all right when it came to the picks and they still lost, it just proves if you trade and the QB you traded can play even if you get 3 pro bowlers you still lose.

The Bills would be getting crucified now if they didn't luck into Josh Allen a year later.

It doesn't matter who and what you get from the trade, if you give away a bonafide top 10 QB you lose.

I would rather have Mahomes than White, Edmunds, Dawkins and Josh Allen combined, they gave away one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game for Phillip Rivers with athletic ability.

I assume you are talking about draft picks that eventually got traded when you are mentioning the players that Buffalo got in the Mahomes trade, but KC traded their 3rd rounder and a future 1st to swap picks with Buffalo.

That is short of the three 1st round picks I have heard it will cost the Pats on the future if they don’t pick a QB at #3 this year.

 

[maust]

I would rather have Mahomes than White, Edmunds, Dawkins and Josh Allen combined, they gave away one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game for Phillip Rivers with athletic ability.

Hey now, let's not be so quick to dismiss Phillip Rivers' athletic ability. With 10 kids the guy's got to have some. At the very least his wife has a bleep ton.

 

[VrabelJr]

Hey now, let's not be so quick to dismiss Phillip Rivers' athletic ability. With 10 kids the guy's got to have some. At the very least his wife has a bleep ton.

Mrs. Rivers has the most fluid hips the game has ever seen. I heard she did a 4.2 on the 20 yard shuttle while delivering twins.

 

[maust]

Mrs. Rivers has the most fluid hips the game has ever seen. I heard she did a 4.2 on the 20 yard shuttle while delivering twins.

She also probably had them diapered before she made the first cut.

 

[The Gr8est]

Hey now, let's not be so quick to dismiss Phillip Rivers' athletic ability. With 10 kids the guy's got to have some. At the very least his wife has a bleep ton.

When did he find time to play football?

 

[maust]

When did he find time to play football?

Dude was probably afraid to go home. All he had to do was look at her and bada bing, bada boom... knocked up. They've got as many kids as Brady has Super Bowl appearances.
At least we know why he played as long as he did

 

[cmasspatsfan]

They went over all the percentages of staying put and drafting a QB, trading down and you guys know the drill. The odds are not in your favor in any scenario, you can better your odds by playing it right. We have to hope we have a staff that knows a good college QB when they see one, one that can be a top pro.

 

[venecol]

If rumors of WAS selecting JJ at #2 are true, Pats having the choice between 2 top 3 QB prospects is a no brainer.

 

[lancerman]

The Bills got Tre'Davious White (CB), Tremaine Edmunds (LB), Dion Dawkins (T), Zay Jones (WR), Siran Neal (CB) for the Patrick Mahomes trade with the Chiefs they got An all pro, a 2x pro bowler and 1x pro bowl and 3 high levels starters they hit it out of the park and they still lost.

The Bills basically got it all right when it came to the picks and they still lost, it just proves if you trade and the QB you traded can play even if you get 3 pro bowlers you still lose.

The Bills would be getting crucified now if they didn't luck into Josh Allen a year later.

It doesn't matter who and what you get from the trade, if you give away a bonafide top 10 QB you lose.

I would rather have Mahomes than White, Edmunds, Dawkins and Josh Allen combined, they gave away one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game for Phillip Rivers with athletic ability.

Mahomes is a once in a generation QB though. The odds of that happening are very low. Josh Allen by comparison is generally viewed as a top 5 QB (especially of the younger class of guys). It's just Mahomes dwarfs everyone else today.