Arizona DC says Brady tipping plays?

[WhiZa]

If you look at the stats from the Titans game then this strategy would of worked perfectly. No runs from the shotgun. Brady & shotgun tracker, Week 2 - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Thankfully teams change their game plan week to week rending their strategy worthless. I can't believe we lost.

 

[brdmaverick]

In a further update, the Arizona DC's insightful observations didn't just help the Arizona defense. The Arizona DC informed the special teams coach that the Patriots would punt every time Mesko lined up in punt formation. Sure enough, the Cards were onto us, and blocked the key punt that provided Arizona with the go ahead TD. The Cards never relinquished the lead from there.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

What he’s saying is simply not true.

Mike Reiss has broken it down with game tape:

Brady was in the shotgun 39 times on Sunday (including penalties and two-point conversion). The Patriots ran it 11 times, and threw 28 times on those snaps. Thus that tendency is correct, but is not an absolute.

Meanwhile, Brady was under center 43 times in the game (including penalties), and the Patriots ran it just 17 times on those plays. So they actually passed the ball more often than they ran it, when Brady was under center.

Looking closer at Brady & 'tipping plays' - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[cmasspatsfan]

In a further update, the Arizona DC's insightful observations didn't just help the Arizona defense. The Arizona DC informed the special teams coach that the Patriots would punt every time Mesko lined up in punt formation. Sure enough, the Cards were onto us, and blocked the key punt that provided Arizona with the go ahead TD. The Cards never relinquished the lead from there.

Also when Brady handed off it was usually a run and when he stepped back it was usually a pass, this is almost 100% of the time with few exceptions, those guys are geniuses.

 

[Rob0729]

What he’s saying is simply not true.

Mike Reiss has broken it down with game tape:

Brady was in the shotgun 39 times on Sunday (including penalties and two-point conversion). The Patriots ran it 11 times, and threw 28 times on those snaps. Thus that tendency is correct, but is not an absolute.

Meanwhile, Brady was under center 43 times in the game (including penalties), and the Patriots ran it just 17 times on those plays. So they actually passed the ball more often than they ran it, when Brady was under center.

Looking closer at Brady & 'tipping plays' - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Cmon, you are spoiling the fun. Facts are misleading. It is clear that McDaniels' offense is too predictable.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Was Tom Brady tipping New England's plays? - ArizonaSports.com

Not according to Reiss..
>>>Usage of the shotgun
vs. Cardinals: 39 of 82 (11 runs, 28 passes)
vs. Titans: 13 of 67 (0 runs, 13 passes) <<<<<

 

[IllegalContact]

I said it duirng the game.......running out of the shotgun is pathetic and did not work well for ridley at all

 

[jcdavey]

i can see how this would be true

even if you know what's coming, sometimes execution breaks down


greg maddux said it best "i threw a great pitch, and he made a great swing"

 

[BradyManny]

I predict that when Tom Brady is in the game, the Patriots will either run or throw the ball.

I am a genius.

 

[sieglo]

whenever Tom Brady was under the center, they were going to run the ball

Bull****. Pats ran a ton of play action against Arizona.

 

[Koma]

Wait...Brady is a "bad" tipper?!!?

This falls right in line with Kraft being cheap and Belichick being vindictive. No wonder Welker and Waters can't get paid. Brady's in on it, too!

 

[WinstonSmith]

I predict that when Tom Brady is in the game, the Patriots will either run or throw the ball.

I am a genius.

On 12/7/2003 and 1/14/2012 you would've been wrong

 

[JJDChE]

Dude is an idiot.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Not according to Reiss..
>>>Usage of the shotgun
vs. Cardinals: 39 of 82 (11 runs, 28 passes)
vs. Titans: 13 of 67 (0 runs, 13 passes) <<<<<

It would be helpful if Reiss posted the QB completion%, yards per attempt, and QB rating when he shows these breakdowns. Also the ypc in running attemps in the breakdowns.

It's true that the Patriots still pass more than run even when Brady is under center. It's just not as dramatic a difference as with shotgun. What is telling is the belief/perspective of the opposing defensive coordinator. If at least this person thinks there was a clear predictable pattern, whether it was true or not, that would mean that the defensive line was going all out pass rush against shotgun and not having to hesitate to protect against running lanes.

 

[kpreh]

Someone needs to tell this guy to move on-I mean Pats played about as bad as you can get on offense and they still had a chance to win in the end. Pats not as bad as they looked and AZ certainly didn't win that game divisively .

 

[DropKickFlutie]

The majority of teams in the NFL are tipping run with the quarterback under center and pass with him in the shotgun. This is nothing new.

If this is true and general knowledge, then wouldn't it make sense to keep your quarterback under center as much as possible to keep the defense guessing, especially in neutral down-distance situations?


It's good that Reiss tracks these things. One that should be worth keeping an eye on as well is run/pass plays when Ridley is in the game, and also run/pass when Woodhead is in the game. It's obvious but opposing coordinators will obviously look to see if there are tells and predictable signs of a play whenever a certain player is in a game.

 

[PromisedLand]

What he’s saying is simply not true.

Mike Reiss has broken it down with game tape:

Brady was in the shotgun 39 times on Sunday (including penalties and two-point conversion). The Patriots ran it 11 times, and threw 28 times on those snaps. Thus that tendency is correct, but is not an absolute.

Meanwhile, Brady was under center 43 times in the game (including penalties), and the Patriots ran it just 17 times on those plays. So they actually passed the ball more often than they ran it, when Brady was under center.

Looking closer at Brady & 'tipping plays' - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

In order for the defense to gain a meaningful advantage their would need to be a statistically significant difference in the PERCENTAGE of plays they ran or passed out of the shotgun vs under center because (assuming past is prologue) those percentages are the probability that the NEXT play is going to be pass or run. So let's look at that:

SHOTGUN
run 11/39 = 28.2%
pass 28/39 = 71.8%

UNDER CENTER
run 17/43 = 39.5%
pass 26/43 = 60.5%

So yes, statistically they do pass more out of the shotgun and run more from under center, but it's not such a huge disparity that defenses can just stack 8 or 9 in the box when Brady is under center - in fact he still passes well more than half the time from that formation. Perhaps the defenses can bet on a pass play when Brady is in the shotgun, but what defense doesn't already know the shotgun is usually a passing formation?

Hey, when Brady is on the field the Patriots are more than likely going to pass the ball. Stop the presses, we have hot breaking news! ;-)

 

[BradyManny]

On 12/7/2003 and 1/14/2012 you would've been wrong

Well done!

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Isn't "tipping" a play when a player does something like stand in a certain way or move his head or look in a particular direction or something? Lining up in the shotgun or over center is more like "the odds are that one thing or another will happen if they do that." If the Pats were indeed running every time TB was over center and passing every time he was in shotgun, isn't that more like bad game planning and not "tipping??

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Was Tom Brady tipping New England's plays? - ArizonaSports.com

That's very insightful, thank you, Arizona. Personally, I noticed that the Pats tried a Field Goal every time Gostkowski was in the game for a play from scrimmage.