Any confidence going into the Week 16 game vs the Ravens?

[Brady_to_Moss]

The frustrating thing about the Patriots this year besides the injuries and redzone woes, is when we have the opponent on third and long and opposing teams always convert!!!

I want to know these numbers. 3rd and 9 or more. What % do opponents convert on pats and what is league average?

 

[Rob0729]

Who will cover pitta? I expect a few ray rice screens as well

Did you watch Pitta on Monday? My answer is who cares (I am exaggerating to make a point)? He is clearly no where near 100%. He played fairly well in a snow storm two weeks ago when no one was moving very fast, but he was slow as crap on Monday night indoors. Pitta will be on a pitch count and is a shell of himself. The Pats have to account for him, but he was MIA in the second half of Monday's ball game and was used sparingly.

Also, Ray Rice has not been a huge factor in the passing game this year. He only has 263 yards receiving this year and on track for a career low in receiving other than his rookie season.

 

[supafly]

Who will cover pitta? I expect a few ray rice screens as well

Once again, our LB/S coverage issues on the TE/RB positions have plagued us.

Hopefully Collins grows into a nice role and/or they address it again in the draft and free agency, because it's going to continue to be a problem moving forward.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Once again, our LB/S coverage issues on the TE/RB positions have plagued us.

.

Hopefully they do a decent job sunday

 

[supafly]

Did you watch Pitta on Monday? My answer is who cares (I am exaggerating to make a point)? He is clearly no where near 100%. He played fairly well in a snow storm two weeks ago when no one was moving very fast, but he was slow as crap on Monday night indoors. Pitta will be on a pitch count and is a shell of himself. The Pats have to account for him, but he was MIA in the second half of Monday's ball game and was used sparingly.

Also, Ray Rice has not been a huge factor in the passing game this year. He only has 263 yards receiving this year and on track for a career low in receiving other than his rookie season.

Hopefully you're right, Rob--but I would definitely expect Harbaugh and Flacco to try and take advantage of mismatches like that. I don't think it matters (lack of production on the year) quite as much as you seem to in terms of it potentially hurting us come Sunday.

In other words, we could easily point out any number of players from around the league who have had good/great games against us, yet didn't really do much else in terms of big production. If the mismatch is there (and it is, probably in BOTH cases), then I'd expect them to use it. Hopefully the defense will be properly prepared and will execute to the best of their ability.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

3rd and long..HAVE to make stops on 3rd and long. Curran and others are working on those 3rd and long stats i asked them to get. Will be interesting

 

[ripatsfan91]

Read the first page of this thread, and skipped immediately to the last to post a reply!! We should have plenty of confidence in going in there and winning this game! Miami was a wake up call that told this team we need to start playing playoff football.

Miami has a much better D than the Ravens. And as pointed out earlier, Baltimore nearly lost at home to the Vikings! This team is gonna get hot and make some noise in the playoffs!

Get Dobson and Thompkins back, have Solder return healthy, keep reintegrating Ridley in the run game, use Blount as the closer. We will be fine for the playoffs.

For the ravens game, I think put Talib on Smith with help over the top from McCourty. Gregory/Harmon and Collins on Pitta, and then single up Jacoby and Brown. Ravens offense doesn't scare me at all.

 

[supafly]

Miami has a much better D than the Ravens.

Which year of NFL football are you referring to? Certainly not the current 2013 season, that's for sure....Your statement couldn't be more incorrect. Miami may have a capable defense, but they are nowhere on Baltimore's level whatsoever.

Baltimore is top 10 is how many defensive categories this season?




--They are #9 in total overall defense

--They are #6th in pts allowed at 19.8 per game

--They are giving up only 227 yds per game in the pass, and only 82.9 on the ground. Those are both surely in the top 10.

--They have 2 players (Dumervil and Suggs) who are both hovering around 10 sacks apiece

--They are also amongst the NFL defensive leaders in situational stats such as 3rd down conversion and red zone conversion. They actually lead the NFL in 3rd down defense, giving up less than SEA, SF, CAR, etc.

--They are giving up 17.3 first downs per game, which is also less than Seattle

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

3rd and long..HAVE to make stops on 3rd and long. Curran and others are working on those 3rd and long stats i asked them to get. Will be interesting

maybe someone can look it up for me...3rd and 9 or longer...what % do teams convert on pats and what is the average for every D


I think this may be the pats lowest scoring game of the year

 

[Kontradiction]

maybe someone can look it up for me...3rd and 9 or longer...what % do teams convert on pats and what is the average for every D


I think this may be the pats lowest scoring game of the year

2013 Patriots Defensive Stats, Breaking Down The Patriots Performances on 1st Down, 2nd Down, 3rd Down,4th Down and Total Number of Plays

The stats database is your friend.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

2013 Patriots Defensive Stats, Breaking Down The Patriots Performances on 1st Down, 2nd Down, 3rd Down,4th Down and Total Number of Plays

The stats database is your friend.

nevermind..underhill got back to me.

70 plays fit 3rd and 9 or longer...16 first downs vs pats...so 22.9 %

And that's what that says...forgot about that part of the site

Wonder where that ranks in the NFL

 

[FourierSeries]

maybe someone can look it up for me...3rd and 9 or longer...what % do teams convert on pats and what is the average for every D


I think this may be the pats lowest scoring game of the year

You think we will score less than 6 points? I think there is a very good chance that we may lose, but I doubt we out up less than 6.

 

[Kontradiction]

nevermind..underhill got back to me.

70 plays fit 3rd and 9 or longer...16 first downs vs pats...so 22.9 %

Anton Chigurh @AntonChigurh81
@Nick_Underhill Can you look up these stats for me? 3rd and 9 and longer..what % do teams get the first vs pats and what is NFL average

I didn't know you were a bounty hunter for a living.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Anton Chigurh @AntonChigurh81
@Nick_Underhill Can you look up these stats for me? 3rd and 9 and longer..what % do teams get the first vs pats and what is NFL average

I didn't know you were a bounty hunter for a living.

i try my best


he said league average is 22%..pats are 17th...i thought they would be worse...guess not

Seattle #1 at 9.8%

 

[sb1]

maybe someone can look it up for me...3rd and 9 or longer...what % do teams convert on pats and what is the average for every D


I think this may be the pats lowest scoring game of the year

Looked it up on PFR.

On 3rd and 9+

Pats 2013 defense
Allow a 1st down 22.9% of the time
Allow a touchdown 4.3% of the time
Big Play (sack or turnover): 7.2% of the time.

League Average
Allows 1st down: 22.0% of the time
Allow a touchdown: 2.4% of the time
Big Play (sack or turnover): 12.8% of the time

I think the problem is they're clearly below league average in getting a big play on 3rd and long, which should surprise nobody. Even the wretched 2011 Pats D was 11.7% in Big plays on 3rd and 9+.

 

[juny]

i try my best


he said league average is 22%..pats are 17th...i thought they would be worse...guess not

Seattle #1 at 9.8%

the league average is 22%? wow defenses are really bad in the nfl

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Looked it up on PFR.

On 3rd and 9+

Pats 2013 defense
Allow a 1st down 22.9% of the time
Allow a touchdown 4.3% of the time
Big Play (sack or turnover): 7.2% of the time.

League Average
Allows 1st down: 22.0% of the time
Allow a touchdown: 2.4% of the time
Big Play (sack or turnover): 12.8% of the time

I think the problem is they're clearly below league average in getting a big play on 3rd and long, which should surprise nobody. Even the wretched 2011 Pats D was 11.7% in Big plays on 3rd and 9+.

29th in the league on any 3rd..teams convert 43%

Also i know the pats don't create TOs this year...but they are 3rd in AFC at +6

Balt is -2. AFC sucks at winning the TO battle it looks like

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

the league average is 22%? wow defenses are really bad in the nfl

Balt allows 1st on 23%

 

[sb1]

29th in the league on any 3rd..teams convert 43%

Most successful QB on third and 10+ vs Pats this year?

Ryan Tannehill. 6-7, 92 yards, 13.1 YPA and 118.8 passer rating. :bricks:

 

[sb1]

Offenses on 3rd and 5+

Broncos: 36.8%
...

Jets 30.2%

...

Pats: 27.6%