4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[man2reg87]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

what is the rule? You said I was wrong, so I just want to know for future referance

 

[VJCPatriot]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Hanson had a net 53 yards on his punts from deep in our own half last night.

Indeed. Hanson was in a zone last night. Great punts. Should have used him to give us a better chance to win.

He's not pulling those stats out of his behind.

He's using stats that don't pertain to that particular game and situation, on our OWN 30 yard line, on the ROAD, with the crowd fired up so loud the Pats offense can't even hear each other, and a make and break 4th down play at the end of the game.

It's a lot easier to convert 4th and 2 when the game doesn't ride on it. And it's a better call if it's on the opponent's side of the field and you don't want to use your FG kicker.

I've summed up the actual game stats. Try reading up on them. But I'm sure people who don't want to hear a single negative thing about that decision will find ways to spin doctor it. Look at the facts. 33% chance of the Colts scoring in that game when starting on their side of the field. That's a 67% chance for the Pats to win by playing it safe and punting. Vs a 100% chance of losing if you don't convert and give the ball to them inside the 30.

 

[DarrylS]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

Have to wonder if this could be done by some electronic chip in the ball??? with a collateral system in the yard sticks...

Thought he made it also, think that somehow it should have been reviewed... it is BS if he did make it, which I believe he did, and it was for naught...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

Have to wonder if this could be done by some electronic chip in the ball??? with a collateral system in the yard sticks...

Thought he made it also, think that somehow it should have been reviewed... it is BS if he did make it, which I believe he did, and it was for naught...

I'm all for it. The only question is resolution: you'd need to be able to spot the ball within its own length. I also don't know what it would do about the issue of calls that are decided by inches. That said, this wasn't a call by inches, and neither was PHI's game.

 

[stevedogc]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

hey mayoclinic, what video did you use to review the play. Was it from your DVR, or did you find some on some websites. If so, could you please post a link to the vids. I deleted the game from my DVR.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

i thought he made it.

 

[duce110]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

lets just give this up... we lost... it was stolen but its a loss...

 

[Laurence Maroney's Dreads]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I've summed up the actual game stats. Try reading up on them. But I'm sure people who don't want to hear a single negative thing about that decision will find ways to spin doctor it. Look at the facts. 33% chance of the Colts scoring in that game when starting on their side of the field. That's a 67% chance for the Pats to win by playing it safe and punting. Vs a 100% chance of losing if you don't convert and give the ball to them inside the 30.

Now I don't know your metrics, but I think it's safe to say you're full of ****.

Why, you ask?

Oh, there's a chance Manning could have thrown a pick with the corners playing tighter. There's a chance Manning could have been strip sacked by Burgess who was getting pretty good pressure all game. There's a pretty good chance that Pierre Garcon could have fumbled trying to make an extra yard. There's a chance that Stover (or whomever the hell their kicker is with Vinatieri down) could have shanked an extra point. There's a chance that the Patriots, whose special teams had been close to dominant all day, blocks the kick and they go into overtime.

And you know what? With the exception of Stover flat out shanking a kick, and maybe of Garcon or another reciever fumbling trying to get extra yardage, none of those were outside of the realm of possibility. There are three kinds of lies out there... big lies, small lies, and statistics.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

lets just give this up... we lost... it was stolen but its a loss...

I accept that we lost, and I feel that it's our responsibility for giving the game away.

That doesn't take away from the fact that 2 extremely close and critical games have been decided on very dubious spots, and that the NFL should address this for the future. That's not the way games should be decided.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

If someone approaches you and tells you to run across a live shooting range and then tells you that there is about a 60% chance that you will live through it, do you do it? And you don't have to answer that as it was a rhetorical question.

the fact that you think this is a reasonable analogy to the 4th down situation is all the evidence I need that you are an idiot of the highest order.

you lack critical thinking skills and the ability to solve a problem analytically. you refuse to listen to hard facts which makes you even worse than dumb, it makes you ignorant. dumb I can deal with, ignorant I can't. I have no patience for people who put fingers in their ears and refuse to learn, it's among the worst traits of human beings. you are not worth any more of my time. bye

here is the final thing I will say on the subject:

all analytically minded, intelligent commentators say going for it was smart. Advanced NFL Stats ,the Zeus project, Joe Pos, Nate Silver, anyone with a brain who spends at least 5 minutes thinking about it

all mouth breathing idiot members of the mainstream media for write cliches for a living think it was wrong. you can take ******ed retreads like Dan Shaughnessy , I'll take Nate Silver all day.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Fine.


The problem is, without the stats its just "you're wrong. No, you're wrong."


Every discussion of statistics and probability involves some uncertainty. That doesn't mean we should throw our hands up in the air and give up trying to understand the situation.

If I've learned anything at Patsfans, it's that statistics are imperfect and therefore they should be thrown out altogether. Subjective individual opinions, on the other hand, are apparently infallible.

Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the decisionmaking process understands why Belichick went for it. And frankly, if they had converted, most of these jokers would be tripping over themselves trying to explain how awesome Belichick is. The decision to go for it makes perfect sense, and was clearly the right call: The Colts' offense was too good (and our defense too tired) to give them the ball back. FWIW, I'm not just being a blind homer here: as soon as the 3rd and 2 pass fell incomplete, I said "they have to go for it here", at which point everyone around me decided I was crazy.

It's been well-chronicled that Belichick relies on advanced statistics way more than anyone else as a justification for going for it on 4th down in unorthodox situations. We've known that for years, and nobody ever had a problem with it before. And they still shouldn't, because it was the right call- if our offense can't get 2 yards on the Colts' defense, we deserve to lose. What we should be harping on is the plays that were called on 3rd and 4th down, which were absolutely terrible.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Letekro, I don't think I am missing yoour point..but I think you are dodging mine.
Let me first state, I love BB as a coach, and I don't think I am "objectively better" than him in wieghing football possibilities. But, he is human, and humans make mistakes, and I think he made one last night by givng Manning a short field rather than a long field.
I got into this discussion becasue the stats guys were saying, in effect, the stats show it was a good decision to go for it. (One poster even said, there are no grey areas in the stats...lol...at least you recogize that not to be the case.) The stats argument at some point rests upon the argument that probability of making it on a 4th and two is "X" %. Now, there are only two possibilities: that percentage rests upon some large sample, including all sorts of 4th down situations which are factually and demonstrably different than that faced by the Pats last night...in which case, they aren't a fair comparison...or, the sample is limited to a 4th down situation very similar to last nights...and if it is the latter, then it is a sample size of one or two, and therefore of no use statistically. either way, the stats in my opinion are useless.

I'm saying the observable data is a good starting point. If that Data suggests the call was a good one (which it does) then we look at the other factors. IMO, the two most significant are: 1 - we should be able to trust our prolific offense to get 1.5 yds in that situation and 2 - Peyton Manning was on fire and our D was out of bullets. Add those factors to the "stats" and blindly criticizing BB seems foolish to me. He did, however, screw up the overall plan by (1) failing to run the ball on third down and (2) failing to let Indy score once they got the ball. If you disagree, that's fine, but saying it was objectively a bad call and that "it can't be justified" is completely absurd.

 

[coltsfan09]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

i think it was great because you helped us win!

 

[SVN]

John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

NFL - - FOX Sports on MSN

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You keep talking about basic math. Let me put this in perspective for you:

If someone approaches you and tells you to run across a live shooting range and then tells you that there is about a 60% chance that you will live through it, do you do it? And you don't have to answer that as it was a rhetorical question.

By the way, feel comfort in knowing that guys like Merrill Hodge agree with your stance while guys like Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison do not. That should give you a little insight into your stance that BB was absolutely correct in doing what he did.

Depends on what the payout is. It's always a risk vs. reward calculation. For a sufficiently worthwhile reward, sure, I'd run across the range.

And while we're talking about who agrees and who doesn't, you kinda forget to mention some others who agree with our stance: Bill Belichick and Ernie Adams (who crunches all of these numbers with Belichick). I'll take them over Harrison, Bruschi, Bill Simmons, Peter King, and whoever else you can find.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I'm saying the observable data is a good starting point. If that Data suggests the call was a good one (which it does) then we look at the other factors. IMO, the two most significant are: 1 - we should be able to trust our prolific offense to get 1.5 yds in that situation and 2 - Peyton Manning was on fire and our D was out of bullets. Add those factors to the "stats" and blindly criticizing BB seems foolish to me. He did, however, screw up the overall plan by (1) failing to run the ball on third down and (2) failing to let Indy score once they got the ball. If you disagree, that's fine, but saying it was objectively a bad call and that "it can't be justified" is completely absurd.

What I think people are missing in beating the "you can't know the exact percentages" drum is that the exact percentages, if we knew them, would almost certainly make the decision to go for it even easier. The Pats' offense should be far, far more likely to convert than the league average. Against a long field, the Colts' offense is far, far more likely to convert than league average. Against a short field, the Colts' offense is once again far more likely to score. The only variable that has potential to make you more likely to punt is one that's already contingent on fourth down failure, which diminishes its impact on the overall equation.

The better the respective offenses are, the easier the call to go for it is.

 

[duce110]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

I accept that we lost, and I feel that it's our responsibility for giving the game away.

That doesn't take away from the fact that 2 extremely close and critical games have been decided on very dubious spots, and that the NFL should address this for the future. That's not the way games should be decided.

but there not... listen they keep the rules vague for one reason... so the ref can use his judgment... i think the nfl might be setup and i dont wanna start drama here but if u get saints vs. colts in Superbowl undefeated that it was setup... we play the saints in a few weeks... lets see how the calls go..,

 

[upstater1]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

hey mayoclinic, what video did you use to review the play. Was it from your DVR, or did you find some on some websites. If so, could you please post a link to the vids. I deleted the game from my DVR.

YouTube - patsscrewed

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

If I've learned anything at Patsfans, it's that statistics are imperfect and therefore they should be thrown out altogether. Subjective individual opinions, on the other hand, are apparently infallible.

Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the decisionmaking process understands why Belichick went for it. And frankly, if they had converted, most of these jokers would be tripping over themselves trying to explain how awesome Belichick is. The decision to go for it makes perfect sense, and was clearly the right call: The Colts' offense was too good (and our defense too tired) to give them the ball back. FWIW, I'm not just being a blind homer here: as soon as the 3rd and 2 pass fell incomplete, I said "they have to go for it here", at which point everyone around me decided I was crazy.

It's been well-chronicled that Belichick relies on advanced statistics way more than anyone else as a justification for going for it on 4th down in unorthodox situations. We've known that for years, and nobody ever had a problem with it before. And they still shouldn't, because it was the right call- if our offense can't get 2 yards on the Colts' defense, we deserve to lose. What we should be harping on is the plays that were called on 3rd and 4th down, which were absolutely terrible.

Funny, I'd say that "Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of human beings should understand why Belichick going for it was an amazingly stupid decision".

I guess it all depends on whether or not you understand percentages and statistics well enough to realize that generalized statistics are not the end all and be all in specific, targeted situations.

One would think that years of proof would be enough for even the most stubborn of people. Sadly, this thread is proof that it is not.

 

[BigGunzXL]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

i really hope they come up with a more technological way of marking the ball. not just because of this, but to make every game go smoother with less confusion/controversy...