VJCPatriot
Pro Bowl Player
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- Apr 28, 2006
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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.he went for it bc it was pretty obv the D couldn`t stop ****.....
was the smartest thing he actaully could have done
It was a damn idiotic call and he deserves to be castigated by every sports fan, critic, and participant in the nation.
No doubt in my mind he got it, he hadn't been pushed back when he made the oh so brief bobble. I guess there's a reason (Butler says HI too) that home teams win almost every time with that reffing crew.it worked against ATL and not here . having said that BB outcoached himself and he did something similar last yr @ indy. Somehome the colts making him outthink himself .
and if had timeout he couldve challenged it becasue i thought faulk got it....
Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
I agree with going for it- I just don't agree with the calls on 3rd and 2 and 4th and 2. If you can't move the ball 2 yards in 2 downs, pack up and go home for the season. Run the ball FFS
It was a damn idiotic call and he deserves to be castigated by every sports fan, critic, and participant in the nation.
Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.