Brady the 50 Pass per Game Gunslinger

Ring 6 · Sep 23, 2015

Concussion Protocol said:
The fact that the Patriots have such a short-range-based passing attack also leads to more attempts and completions. I'll say something that's never been said before: The Patriots use the pass as an extension of the running game. That doesn't take away from Brady's greatness or add to it, it's just a key factor in driving up those numbers. Rodgers and Ben are much more likely to drive 80 yards in 5 plays than Tom is.

This is simply not factual, other than the fact that every team uses short passing as an extension of the running game.

BlueThunder · Sep 23, 2015

Using the classic " balanced attack" will benefit the Pats down the road......having 3 rookies on their OL will require getting them more experience. Against stout run defenses like Squealers and Jills spreading out the D and throwing was a good game plan......Lewis ran enough to keep the pass rush off Brady and using him ala Vereen is great. We havn't seen Blount punish any defenses with his running just yet. Hopefully he does that down the stretch when he is really needed. Break him in slowly. If he starts tearing up the field it just gives opposing DC's another headache to defend against.

I have a feeling this is going to be a great season for the Patriots. One week at a time......No Injuries please...

Concussion Protocol · Sep 23, 2015

hambone1818 said:
This is why I laugh at yards/attempt being a factor in passer rating--certainly as it pertains to Brady. Maybe for the mere mortal QB's they need to have a healthy Y/att. because they're not as accurate, but Brady finds the open receiver and gets the ball to the chains so damn often; he rarely takes deep shots (at least in his pre- and post-Moss days) and for that reason doesn't hit the HR's that pad the Y/att. stats. But he doesn't need it, because he methodically goes 11-of-13 for 80 yards and a TD all...day...long.

I honestly think they should integrate first downs/att. into the metrics. Listen, Flacco can throw his jump ball and go 1-for-4 on it for 60 yards, but two or three of those shots may have killed a drive. Meanwhile Brady's getting a first down every other throw and the team slowly marches down the field as if it's a casual stroll to the end zone.

Yards per attempt is affected by completion percentage, so it doesn't work against short-range passers too much. Yards per completion is complete crap and means nothing.

Concussion Protocol · Sep 23, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
This is simply not factual, other than the fact that every team uses short passing as an extension of the running game.

Are you saying the average distance that Brady's passes travel is not less than most other "top flight" QBs?

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2014/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2013/

These numbers indicate that Brady is racking up a ton of yards from RAC on short passes. This isn't a bad thing, it's just a thing.

PATS16N0 · Sep 23, 2015

Tom is just unbelievable.

We should put him on the 20 dollar bill.

PATS16N0 · Sep 23, 2015

Concussion Protocol said:
Are you saying the average distance that Brady's passes travel is not less than most other "top flight" QBs?

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2014/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2013/

These numbers indicate that Brady is racking up a ton of yards from RAC on short passes. This isn't a bad thing, it's just a thing.

You think just anyone can do this? When we played the Colts back in the Dynasty years, Belichick called it making Peyton take "the long, hard road." These short passes, that kill teams with a thousand and one paper cuts, requires a quarterback that is masterful at deciphering defenses with consistent, deadly accuracy, or else you end up throwing interceptions and pick sixes.

I've been seeing a lot of haters use Tom's 8 yard passes as a knock against him and it's hilariously ignorant. If it was easy the other 31 teams would ride it to the Superbowl.

Let's see another QB in the league take `the long hard road` against the best defenses in the league without turning it over because it's too many throws per drive.

When you're watching Tom do it, you're watching the best quarterback that's ever played.

shmessy · Sep 23, 2015

PATS16N0 said:
Tom is just unbelievable.

We should put him on the 20 dollar bill.

He was on some Bills last Sunday, alright.

Concussion Protocol · Sep 23, 2015

PATS16N0 said:
You think just anyone can do this? When we played the Colts back in the Dynasty years, Belichick called it making Peyton take "the long, hard road." These short passes, that kill teams with a thousand and one paper cuts, requires a quarterback that is masterful at deciphering defenses with consistent, deadly accuracy, or else you end up throwing interceptions and pick sixes.

I've been seeing a lot of haters use Tom's 8 yard passes as a knock against him and it's hilariously ignorant. If it was easy the other 31 teams would ride it to the Superbowl.

Let's see another QB in the league take `the long hard road` against the best defenses in the league without turning it over because it's too many throws per drive.

When you're watching Tom do it, you're watching the best quarterback that's ever played.

Did I say "just anyone can do this"? Don't put words in my mouth and pick a fight with me over the opinion of someone else.

You need to calm down

hambone1818 · Sep 23, 2015

Concussion Protocol said:
Yards per attempt is affected by completion percentage, so it doesn't work against short-range passers too much. Yards per completion is complete crap and means nothing.

I agree with you, but again though, you could have a game from Flacco--or Cutler, Stafford, anyone who throws jump balls downfield--where they hit two 40, 50 yard bombs but miss on six more of them. When you have Brady and this offensive scheme there's almost no reason (behind needing quick scores, end of the half or needing a comeback) where you ever need to look downfield. The dink-and-dunk offense gets them to the same place without the threat of INT's and missing downfield on 2nd-and-10 and missing out on a first down.

So let's say QB1 goes 3-of-10 (for 110 yards total) on deep balls, his team gets big yards on three passes but miss out on first downs a few times on some of the other throws. Meanwhile QB2 goes 1-of-4 (for 50 yards) on deep balls, similar completion percentage and yards/att, but far fewer shots downfield, which can stall a drive or lead to a pick. The rest of the game they have similar stats, except QB2 has more short completions for 4-6 yards and a first down.

I'm taking the QB2 any day of the week and twice on NFL Sunday, regardless of an inferior yards/attempt (which, again, is a factor in passer rating). Fewer risky deep passes, constantly moving the chain, wear the defense out. And that's what Brady does, the occasional seam pass to Gronk or deep shot to Edelman but otherwise it's death by a million paper cuts.

Concussion Protocol · Sep 23, 2015

hambone1818 said:
I agree with you, but again though, you could have a game from Flacco--or Cutler, Stafford, anyone who throws jump balls downfield--where they hit two 40, 50 yard bombs but miss on six more of them. When you have Brady and this offensive scheme there's almost no reason (behind needing quick scores, end of the half or needing a comeback) where you ever need to look downfield. The dink-and-dunk offense gets them to the same place without the threat of INT's and missing downfield on 2nd-and-10 and missing out on a first down.

So let's say QB1 goes 3-of-10 (for 110 yards total) on deep balls, his team gets big yards on three passes but miss out on first downs a few times on some of the other throws. Meanwhile QB2 goes 1-of-4 (for 50 yards) on deep balls, similar completion percentage and yards/att, but far fewer shots downfield, which can stall a drive or lead to a pick. The rest of the game they have similar stats, except QB2 has more short completions for 4-6 yards and a first down.

I'm taking the QB2 any day of the week and twice on NFL Sunday, regardless of an inferior yards/attempt (which, again, is a factor in passer rating). Fewer risky deep passes, constantly moving the chain, wear the defense out. And that's what Brady does, the occasional seam pass to Gronk or deep shot to Edelman but otherwise it's death by a million paper cuts.

Yes, I agree with you. Converting 3rd downs into 1st downs and redzone opportunities into touchdowns is enormous, and a precision passer won't feel the effects of a compressed field as much as a mad bomber will.

Ring 6 · Sep 23, 2015

Concussion Protocol said:
Are you saying the average distance that Brady's passes travel is not less than most other "top flight" QBs?

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2014/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2013/

These numbers indicate that Brady is racking up a ton of yards from RAC on short passes. This isn't a bad thing, it's just a thing.

Show me where in those numbers Rodgers and Roethlisberger are taking their teams 80 yards in 5 plays.
Also please explain how an 'average throw' of 3.7 yards is short passing and 4.0 is airing it out.

Concussion Protocol · Sep 23, 2015

AndyJohnson said:
Show me where in those numbers Rodgers and Roethlisberger are taking their teams 80 yards in 5 plays.
Also please explain how an 'average throw' of 3.7 yards is short passing and 4.0 is airing it out.

I already said I used the 80/5 numbers randomly, and was surprised they weren't accurate between Tom and Ben.

I'm not going to get into an argument over whether or not the Pats run primarily a short passing attack, because they obviously do. Apparently there are some hypersensitive fans who take that as some kind of an insult towards Brady.

shmessy · Sep 23, 2015

Concussion Protocol said:
I already said I used the 80/5 numbers randomly, and was surprised they weren't accurate between Tom and Ben.

I'm not going to get into an argument over whether or not the Pats run primarily a short passing attack, because they obviously do. Apparently there are some hypersensitive fans who take that as some kind of an insult towards Brady.

Can someone supply an English translation of the above post other than "I was wrong, but I'm still going to believe what is in my heart and I don't to talk about it anymore"?

.

Concussion Protocol · Sep 23, 2015

shmessy said:
Can someone supply an English translation of the above post other than "I was wrong, but I'm still going to believe what is in my heart and I don't to talk about it anymore"?

.

I was wrong about an assumed stat. I provided other stats that show Brady to be a short-yardage passer. What more do you want? The stats prove it, watching the games makes it obvious. The Patriots run a short passing attack. Do you agree or disagree with that?

wolverinejoe80 · Sep 23, 2015

brees is 3-10 in 50+ attempt games

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00/gamelog/

wolverinejoe80 · Sep 23, 2015

Concussion Protocol said:
Are you saying the average distance that Brady's passes travel is not less than most other "top flight" QBs?

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2014/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2013/

These numbers indicate that Brady is racking up a ton of yards from RAC on short passes. This isn't a bad thing, it's just a thing.

no it's not a thing.
you are basing your assumption that brady is a top QB stat wise.
brady is not a 'top flight' qb past couple of years stat wise.

in 2014 brady was

10th - yards
5th - qb rating
10th - attempts
5th - tds
14th - completion %

in 2013 it was even worse.

6th- yards
17th - qb rating
5th - attempts
11th - tds
21st - completion %

so statistically speaking brady wasn't a 'top flight' qb in past couple of years. so 10th in air yards seems about right. and it's important to note that brady doesn't have that guy who can stretch the field and just go get it. for ex. that bomb he threw to amendola against steelers should've been caught if it was thrown to jordy nelson, dez bryant, antonio brown, megatron, julio jones, aj green, obj, and etc. amendola is not only small, but he isn't even 4.5 under guy.

we all know brady's deep ball is shaky at best. but if brady had julio jones brady will not only attempt more deep balls, but our entire offensive philosophy will change.

so i'm agreeing with you, but i'm really am not.

FourierSeries · Sep 23, 2015

We have one of, if not THE, most "physical" passing games I've ever seen.

Concussion Protocol · Sep 23, 2015

wolverinejoe80 said:
no it's not a thing.
you are basing your assumption that brady is a top QB stat wise.
brady is not a 'top flight' qb past couple of years stat wise.

in 2014 brady was

10th - yards
5th - qb rating
10th - attempts
5th - tds
14th - completion %

in 2013 it was even worse.

6th- yards
17th - qb rating
5th - attempts
11th - tds
21st - completion %

so statistically speaking brady wasn't a 'top flight' qb in past couple of years. so 10th in air yards seems about right. and it's important to note that brady doesn't have that guy who can stretch the field and just go get it. for ex. that bomb he threw to amendola against steelers should've been caught if it was thrown to jordy nelson, dez bryant, antonio brown, megatron, julio jones, aj green, obj, and etc. amendola is not only small, but he isn't even 4.5 under guy.

we all know brady's deep ball is shaky at best. but if brady had julio jones brady will not only attempt more deep balls, but our entire offensive philosophy will change.

so i'm agreeing with you, but i'm really am not.

I think you're looking at air yards, I'm zeroing in on air yards per attempt. Brady is quite low by that measure.

Wheelman · Sep 23, 2015

I've noticed the Patriots have been throwing more intermediate passes lately. Could it be opposing defense related or a trend?

Ring 6 · Sep 23, 2015

Concussion Protocol said:
I already said I used the 80/5 numbers randomly, and was surprised they weren't accurate between Tom and Ben.

This is unintelligible.

I'm not going to get into an argument over whether or not the Pats run primarily a short passing attack, because they obviously do. Apparently there are some hypersensitive fans who take that as some kind of an insult towards Brady.

Apparently there are some hyper sensitive fans who don't want to discuss what they are wrong about.
By your standard every passing offense in the NFL is primarily a short passing offense. Again, explaining how an average pass length of 4 yards makes you less of a short passing offense than 3.7 might help you understand that.

Brady the 50 Pass per Game Gunslinger

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