WR Donald Jones released

[belichick010405]

Re: Rapoport: WR Donald Jones released

That is the kind of foolish thinking that the team has been doing too much of.

Here is what is foolish - anyone on these boards who think that they should be a general manager of the Patriots unless BB is here and we don't know it.

Amendola and Welker were never going to be here together.

As far as I am concerned, a corp of Amendola-Dobson-Edelman-Boyce is still going to work and nothing is going to hinder Brady running this offense.

And as previous posters have said, someone like Lloyd coming back is not out of the realm of possibilities.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Rapoport: WR Donald Jones released

How many championships did Welker lead the Broncos to? Can we wait until Amendola plays a down before we start calling Welker leaving a mistake? Football is played on the field.

Wes didn't help with our last 2 championship games. I think gronk and ahern helped more on 2011 in the playoffs.

 

[captain stone]

I think that BB didn't do Brady any favors this offseason. Just a reminder of what the receiving corps could have been, had the team gone in the direction(s) I preferred:

Welker
Amendola
Edelman
Lloyd
Dobson
Wheaton

Having both Welker & Amendola might have been too expensive/redundant. But if the FO had not exposed
Salas to waivers last year, and had signed Danario Alexander to a no-compensation-required offer sheet,
then a top-6 WR group of:
Welker
Salas
Alexander
Edelman
Rookie WR 1 (Dobson/Marcus Wheaton/Keenan Allen)
Rookie WR 2 (Boyce/Quinton Patton)
would've been a group in which I would've had a lot more confidence than the current motley fools.

 

[JDot]

Re: Rapoport: WR Donald Jones released

You would think nobody would sign him but wrong, the freaking Raiders signed him the next week. Not even joking around..

 

[patsinthesnow]

I wouldn't say perfect. There are plenty of things that Welker's going to have to put up with that he didn't in NE, such as not having the tight ends or a Moss-level deep threat to clear out the middle of the field. Manning throws a much uglier ball than Brady, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Welker "drop" some wobbly passes. And Manning is notorious for leading his receivers (most notably Austin Collie) into getting blown up by defenders, something that Brady avoided with Welker outside of maybe three or so notable hits over the years.

...........

Thomas: 94 receptions 1,434 yards 15.3 ypc 10 TDs

Moss average 2007-2009: 83 receptions 1,256 yards 15ypc 16 TDs*

*You could just use 07 and 09 since Brady wasn't there in 08 and Thomas still matches Moss statistically.

Demaryius Thomas is a 25 year old beast, deep threat, stud, WR. Decker is a fine intermediate #2 WR at 13.2ypc.

Wes and that offense will have a field day, time to move on and carve up that weak defense.

 

[Uncle Meat]

Re: Rapoport: WR Donald Jones released

Hopefully this means the others we have are better......

That doesn't really necessarily mean that they are good, though. I was glad when Buffalo made it clear they weren't going to re-sign Donald Jones, and they didn't have anyone else besides Stevie at the time.

 

[Brady6]

ESPN had an interesting statistic on the other day.. though I was unable to hear any of the commentary for the context.

Brady #1 in leading his receivers in open space and YAC.

Manning #30

Great post!

I think anyone who's watched Manning play over the years knows he's willing to hang his receivers out to dry more than most QB's.

Collie, Clark, Gonzalez, Stokley all had injury problems and at least one head or neck injury during their time in with Manning. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Welker miss some games this season because of a head or a neck injury.

I do see the karma in Manning being one bad hit from his head coming off his neck after writing this post

 

[Sciz]

...........

Thomas: 94 receptions 1,434 yards 15.3 ypc 10 TDs

Moss average 2007-2009: 83 receptions 1,256 yards 15ypc 16 TDs*

*You could just use 07 and 09 since Brady wasn't there in 08 and Thomas still matches Moss statistically.

Demaryius Thomas is a 25 year old beast, deep threat, stud, WR. Decker is a fine intermediate #2 WR at 13.2ypc.

Wes and that offense will have a field day, time to move on and carve up that weak defense.

Thomas isn't as much a deep threat as he is an intermediate target. His YPC is high because he does all of his work in that 10-25 yard range or so, as opposed to blazing down the field like Moss. There's not really a good stat to show this, but number of receptions at least 30 yards down the field comes close. 2007 Moss had 11 of these (7 TDs), while Thomas had two last season, neither of which went for TDs.

And I'm not sure the one 30+ yard pass counts, considering he beat Sterling Moore and Chung was late to help. In fact, I think the ball was in the air for exactly 30 yards, because that's all Thomas needed to beat the Moore/Chung combo. Outside of that one pass, Thomas wasn't really running past guys.

I will say, though, that deep threats are extremely overrated, and I'd take an intermediate target like Thomas over a one-dimensional deep threat any time. He's just not the kind of guy that safeties line up extra deep against.

 

[Oswlek]

They had plenty of time to do right by Welker. They chose not to. And, yes, it's that easy.

2007 - The Patriots acquire an unheralded WR from Miami and sign him to a 5 year $18mm contract. At nearly $4mm per year, this is somewhere between $1mm and $2mm more than he would have commanded on the open market.

2009 - After Welker clearly outplays his first three year's compensation, and right when the team would be looking in earnest to give Wes a raise, he blows out his knee, creating just enough doubt to make it wise to wait a little.

2010 - While impressive, Wes was clearly not the same guy and not worth remotely the same numbers that would have been bandied about 12 months earlier.

2011 - After proving he had fully recovered - and then some - Welker asked for a bizarre contract that would have paid him more than two consecutive tags and put all the injury risk on the team. He turned down a very reasonable $16mm 2yr deal 100% guaranteed.

One can hardly blame the team for deciding to just tag him and see what the picture looked like in a year.

So, the Patriots signed him for a significant premium on his initial contract and they ultimately paid ~$28mm for 6 years of his services. Could they have done more? Of course, but it isn't nearly as cut and dry as you are making it out to be.

 

[Brady6]

...........

Thomas: 94 receptions 1,434 yards 15.3 ypc 10 TDs

Moss average 2007-2009: 83 receptions 1,256 yards 15ypc 16 TDs*

*You could just use 07 and 09 since Brady wasn't there in 08 and Thomas still matches Moss statistically.

Demaryius Thomas is a 25 year old beast, deep threat, stud, WR. Decker is a fine intermediate #2 WR at 13.2ypc.

Wes and that offense will have a field day, time to move on and carve up that weak defense.

I just don't see how many more targets Welker can get than the 64 Stokley saw in 2012. I mean it will be more but not anywhere near 170+ like he saw here. I see Welker as almost like an old school RB version of a WR who requires touches to get going and gets strong as the game goes.

I don't know if 80-100 targets is going to be enough for him, and I think players like Thomas and Decker are still young progressing so they may even command more targets which could reduce Welker's even more.

For that reason I think Welker will have a poor statistical season, probably around 50-60 catches for 600-700 receiving yards. I do think he will be impactful and a difference maker just not in the stat sheet as he was here.

 

[mgteich]

Obviously, there are always two sides to a controversy. It seems that Welker and the team could agree to much of a deal this year. Yes, the best slot receiver in the NFL and one of the best of all time was paid $4.6M a year, not terrible.

What is missing in the cold, hard numbers is the back story. Welker was promised by Kraft that he would be taken care of with a new contract if he would wait a year. It never happened. Welker was put put off lots of times. Welker probably could have gotten much more money if he were willing to sit out instead of believing the team. We may need to wait for years for the book to come out. But it is clear that Welker and the team weren't exactly on great terms when the off-season started. Welker didn't speak out as others have (like Seymour); he just left to join the team with a chance to beat the patriots in the playoffs.

Many seem to think that if Kraft dangled another million or two, Welker would have come running. I don't believe it. Yes, the team screwed up. But I am not at all sure that Welker would have signed for the patriots without a lot more guaranteed money than the team was willing to give. I don't think that they were in the same ballpark. And yes, Welker was likely willing to play for Denver for a lot less than he would have needed to play for the patriots. There was more than money involved.

2007 - The Patriots acquire an unheralded WR from Miami and sign
him to a 5 year $18mm contract. At nearly $4mm per year, this is somewhere between $1mm and $2mm more than he would have commanded on the open market.

2009 - After Welker clearly outplays his first three year's compensation, and right when the team would be looking in earnest to give Wes a raise, he blows out his knee, creating just enough doubt to make it wise to wait a little.

2010 - While impressive, Wes was clearly not the same guy and not worth remotely the same numbers that would have been bandied about 12 months earlier.

2011 - After proving he had fully recovered - and then some - Welker asked for a bizarre contract that would have paid him more than two consecutive tags and put all the injury risk on the team. He turned down a very reasonable $16mm 2yr deal 100% guaranteed.

One can hardly blame the team for deciding to just tag him and see what the picture looked like in a year.

So, the Patriots signed him for a significant premium on his initial contract and they ultimately paid ~$28mm for 6 years of his services. Could they have done more? Of course, but it isn't nearly as cut and dry as you are making it out to be.

 

[Brady6]

Deus, stop being so pissy. We get it, you're not a fan of the Pats letting Welker go(I am not either). You have productively made the case for not letting Welker go, many times over...

Let it go bra, it is what it is.

I think all of us agree we wish Welkah was still in a Pats uni.

But he his not, and yes it is a big f@#$king gamble. But we just have to keep it moving my man..

EDIT:This is not a hate post by the way.

I'm not a fan of them letting him go either. That's because I like instant gratification.

Realistically though Welker has 2 maybe 3 years left which means he wasn't going to last the full final years of Brady's contract. So if Brady is going to have to adjust to a new receiving corp it probably is best to have him do it now at 35-36 than in a few years at 38-39.

 

[mgteich]

I think Brady would rather have had a better chance at the Super Bowl in 2013 and 2014, and then have to have dealt with the major changes. Better yet, Brady might have preferred to keep Welker and have developed Dobson and Boyce (and another one or two) while Welker was still here.

Perhaps it was time to tear up the offense and rebuild. I just don't see it that way. We have an improving defense. If the offense remained as good as in 2011, we would have had a better chance for a couple of Super Bowls. For me, I would have re-signed Welker, Lloyd and Edelman, and then do as we did with free agents and draftees. Basically, we determined that Welker was going to fold in the next couple of years.

How would we feel about an offense with a more healthy OL, a better running game, and a set of receivers basically the same as last year?

Jenkins or Hawkins would have replaced Branch. AND we still would have had the two draft choices.

Belichick makes the big bucks, He makes the decisions, but tearing up the best passing offense in the NFL seems wrong, even if MIGHT be rebuilt to be as good.

Realistically though Welker has 2 maybe 3 years left which means he wasn't going to last the full final years of Brady's contract. So if Brady is going to have to adjust to a new receiving corp it probably is best to have him do it now at 35-36 than in a few years at 38-39.

 

[belichick010405]

It is Donald Jones guys. If the Pats have to deal with losses on the top four receivers between now and the playoffs then I would be a little more concerned.

I am interested in what kind of offense that they are going to roll with this year considering the personnel that they have right now.

Whatever happens with this offense, it will succeed.

I want to see what Sudfield, Dobson and Boyce can do in this system as rookies. I want to see what Amendola can do in this system as well. I want to see what Vereen can do with 50-100 more touches over the season. If Gronkowski, Ridley, Washington, Ballard/Hoomana/Fells and Edelman can do in this offense or on special teams (Washington/Edelman) what is expected of them then the options are there.

The cupboard is not bare and frankly Brady has worked with less.

 

[Brady6]

Perhaps it was time to tear up the offense and rebuild. I just don't see it that way. We have an improving defense. If the offense remained as good as in 2011, we would have had a better chance for a couple of Super Bowls. For me, I would have re-signed Welker, Lloyd and Edelman, and then do as we did with free agents and draftees. Basically, we determined that Welker was going to fold in the next couple of years.

Oh don't get me wrong buddy I'm not happy that Welker isn't here. I'm just trying to look for a positive in an unfortunate circumstance.

Honestly though the fact that we are all in here a week before camp debating which JAG and UDFA wide receivers we would prefer to make final roster is not a good indication of us having a good group of wide receivers. It's actually very much a cause for concern.

 

[Brady6]

It is Donald Jones guys. If the Pats have to deal with losses on the top four receivers between now and the playoffs then I would be a little more concerned.

I am interested in what kind of offense that they are going to roll with this year considering the personnel that they have right now.

Whatever happens with this offense, it will succeed.

I want to see what Sudfield, Dobson and Boyce can do in this system as rookies. I want to see what Amendola can do in this system as well. I want to see what Vereen can do with 50-100 more touches over the season. If Gronkowski, Ridley, Washington, Ballard/Hoomana/Fells and Edelman can do in this offense or on special teams (Washington/Edelman).

The cupboard is not bare and frankly Brady has worked with less.

My man Brandon Ford is going to put up 40 catches, 500 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. You heard it hear first

Or he will be cut by 5pm tomorrow in which case my poor ability to evaluate talent will be exposed for you all to see.

 

[tonyto3690]

Oh but but but Jones and Jenkins are "seasoned vets" with "vet savvy" and are going to rival the 2007 Patriots WR corps!

 

[VrabelJr]

If the choice is to go back and extend either Hernandez or Welker, then it's quite clearly Welker for anybody you ask. If you let me go back and spend Hernandez's money however I want, I doubt Welker would be a part of that.

The only player I spend Hernandez's money on in hindsight is Devin McCourty.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I was way off I was looking for him to be a nice part of the pats offense this year

 

[UK_Pat37]

Are we still droning on about Welker?

We got younger, which was a huge need. Some will think Welker over evaluated himself, some think he was short changed however, if you do, I think you're trying to kid yourself a little too much. If Welker was originally prepared to take what he took from the Broncos, Amendola may well have been an afterthought or even better, we could of sneaked both.

Sad fact is that, by the time Welker realised that other teams valued him at the same, the Patriots had moved on.

What we now have is a younger, faster WR in Amendola who has more production at this stage in his career than Welker ever had and who is going to be playing with one of the best ever QBs to play the game.

I'm optimistic we won't lose much...if any..production at WR. We actually look a lot more versatile at WR than we ave in a long time. You just have to trust our young guys can do it.