4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why going for it was right

people keep saying this, and giving zero evidence. your evidence seems to be "punting is right b/c I say so"



nobody would ever say that, nor do they need to. read my op.

I did give evidence. Now could you please post the mathematics that clearly show that Manning's chances from scoring at 80 yards out are just as good, if not better, than his chances at scoring from 25 to 30 yards out?

 

[Theplayer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

^ do you honestly think the Pats D could stop Manning from getting 10 yards with 4 downs? I don't....


Think about it this way, the defense still had a chance to make plays and win the game..BB gave his offense a chance to win the game on the 4th and 2, and the defense also had their chance..it's not like they gave the Colts the ball inside the 10..

 

[upstater1]

Re: Why going for it was right

The same guy who made the decision to go for it made the decision to play prevent on the last couple of Colts drives...

He also made the decision to go for it early in the season. And as I recall he did so because that week he had hammered on them that some time in the season they would be in a situation where they HAD TO CONVERT.

As someone else said in another thread on another site, if you are going to go for it on 4th down in that particular situation, you better have made that decision prior to the first down. That saves you two time outs at the very least and should dictate better initial playcalling or selection designed to ensure at the very least you burn more clock or force your opponent to use all his remaining TO's. You should also have very good reason to believe you can convert. Trouble is we aren't a team who can count on 3 yards a crack from the run when we have to, and last night we were down to only two backs in a running game that chooses not to emply a fullback, neither of which is a push the pile option. So we did what we do and it almost worked save for a horrendous spot on a bobble that couldn't be seen by the guy who called it, the Colts 12th man, a guy whose existence and presence you must always account for.

Of course the other alternative was trusting your defense. And if we/he still can't do that then we haven't really changed the thing that's been dogging this team for the last couple of seasons.

And as an aside, it wouldn't hurt to upgrade at punter. If the decision to punt would have realistically left the Colts with a 70 yard field to traverse, Bill might have been more inclined to punt. I doubt Hansen would have backed the Colts up much beyond midfield, and Bill knows that. But again that's a roster spot BB has chosen to stand pat on despite historically being a field position guy...

I don't think going for it considering all the circumstances was any more right or wrong than punting, unfortunately. But given that, discretion might have been the better part of valor.

How can you possible make that decision on 1st down when the whole sequence is dictated by the fact that you're 2 yards from a first down?

The Patriots were trying to make first downs there (I hope) from the 1st down on.

And when you find yourself close on 3rd or fourth, that's when such decisions are made. Not earlier.

I do buy the argument that on 3rd down, he could plan ahead if he was certain he were going for it, but I don't think any football coaches could be expected to think that way there.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

^ do you honestly think the Pats D could stop Manning from getting 10 yards with 4 downs? I don't....


Think about it this way, the defense still had a chance to make plays and win the game..BB gave his offense a chance to win the game on the 4th and 2, and the defense also had their chance..it's not like they gave the Colts the ball inside the 10..

They gave the Colts the ball in field goal range. Giving Manning the ball at the 30 is a DEATH WISH. Is this really all that hard to understand?

 

[NEGoldenAge]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

After reading some stuff from Advanced Football statistics, I've changed my mind. I think it was a good call.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Why going for it was right

How is letting a punter who had averaged over 50 per punt that game make the other team march down the field 70 yards like that?

We had a 40% chance of handing the ball to Peyton on our 28 with timeouts and four downs. 40% is a lot.

Peyton was an axe-wielding murderer in the 4th quarter.

Twice he had already shredded our defense in 2 minutes.

I had zero faith in our D there, and so did Belichick. In fact, I was happy he was going for it.

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Why going for it was right

I did give evidence. Now could you please post the mathematics that clearly show that Manning's chances from scoring at 80 yards out are just as good, if not better, than his chances at scoring from 25 to 30 yards out?

what are you talking about? in my OP, which you clearly didn't read, I estimated the following

75% chance Colts score from our 30
45% chance Colts score after we punt

it's a given that its much easier to score from our 30, but you are completely ignoring the fact that this difference is completely overcome by the % chance we convert the 1st down and end the game.

 

[pats1]

AdvancedNFLStats.com: 4th down call gave Pats best chance to win [merged]

Advanced NFL Stats: Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: Why going for it was right

If Bill was thinking all along that it was 4 down territory, why not QB sneak on 3rd and 2 on the play before everyone is talking about?

That either gets the 1st down (remember the earlier easy sneak for 3+ yards) or gets it a lot closer and maybe you sneak again. The Colts D-line is still smallish.

This analysis also shows why we miss a short yardage back (get well Sammy Morris)

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Why going for it was right

This isn't a debate. We saw how BB's decision ended and it still ended in a loss. Mathematics or not, we had no timesouts left to challenge should anything (such as a bad spot) happen. At that point, the decision should have clearly been to punt the ball and give Manning a long field to work with. Now, if you can make a strong argument that shows that Manning's chances to score from 70-80 yards out were just as good, if not better than his chances to score from 25 yards out, then I'll listen. As of right now, however, no argument exists. The fact of the matter is that the defense did a good enough job against Manning. He threw up two ducks and both got picked off. On the drive before that, the Colts were only in striking position because of an iffy pass interference call that Darius Butler still had extremely good position on.

On top of all of this, using the 2006 AFCCG to support your argument is rather ridiculous considering the fact that we had completely different personnel in there for this game. Could Manning have driven 80 yards for the score? Sure. Were the chances of him doing so equally as good, if not better, than his chances to score from 25-30 yards out? Absolutely not.

Agreed. Only game to use as a point of reference was the 11/30/03 game and BB as HC (to use a data point for his reasoning). Take a look w/ Pats up 38-34. w/ 4th and 13, BB punted. Seems totally logical. However Indy has scored 24 2nd 1/2 points so by all indications, the D was gassed and BB still punted.

My point: 4th and 2 was the different variable in this scenario. In 2003, Indy got the ball at the 50. In theory, last night they most likely would have gotten the ball at the Indy 40. BB thinking is that's 30 yards which Manning can cover in about 30 seconds. I can see BBs thinking, but still why give Manning 30 free yards and not give the D 2 extra snaps to make some kind of a play (as he did in 2003....

My biggest problem with last night: He totally mismanaged the risk vs reward.

11/30/2003- Pats @ Colts 4th qtr..

4th and 13 at NWE 30 Punt by Ken Walter (NWE) no return by Indy.
DRIVE TOTALS: IND 3 plays, 2 yards, 0:11 drive
Indianapolis at 3:12 NWE IND
1st and 10 at IND 50 Peyton Manning (IND) pass complete to Edgerrin James (IND) for 5 yards. 38 34
2nd and 5 at NWE 43 Peyton Manning (IND) pass complete to Reggie Wayne (IND) for 13 yards.
1st and 10 at NWE 30 Dominic Rhodes (IND) rushed for 9 yards.
2nd and 1 at NWE 21 2 minute warning.
2nd and 1 at NWE 21 Edgerrin James (IND) rushed for 3 yards.
1st and 10 at NWE 18 Peyton Manning (IND) pass complete to Marvin Harrison (IND) for 9 yards.
2nd and 1 at NWE 9 Edgerrin James (IND) rushed for 7 yards.
1st and 2 at NWE 2 Edgerrin James (IND) rushed for 1 yard.
2nd and 1 at NWE 1 Edgerrin James (IND) rushed for no gain.
3rd and 1 at NWE 1 Indy timeout; 00:18 remaining 4th quarter
3rd and 1 at NWE 1 Peyton Manning (IND) pass incomplete
4th and 1 at NWE 1 Edgerrin James (IND) rushed for no gain; turnover on downs.

 

[Theplayer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

They gave the Colts the ball in field goal range. Giving Manning the ball at the 30 is a DEATH WISH. Is this really all that hard to understand?

death wish from the pats 30 or the colts 30 at that point. Maybe you don't understand statistics and probabilities..too hard for you to understand?

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

They gave the Colts the ball in field goal range. Giving Manning the ball at the 30 is a DEATH WISH. Is this really all that hard to understand?

you have zero understanding of probabilities, and as such will never understand scenario analysis. best of luck!

 

[Nunchucks]

Re: Why going for it was right

fine, what do YOU THINK THEY ARE? give me the probabilities you think are correct. ballpark is fine.

% chance Pats make the 1st down
% chance Colts score from our 30
% chance Colts score after we punt



conventional wisdom is often wrong

Probabilities aren't part of the game on the field. You aren't understanding my point. You force the QB to drive the length of the field with 2 minutes left. That is the correct decision.

Stats are the greatest liars in the world, I know cause I work with them and I can make them say whatever I want.

Probabilities will not describe whether Manning will throw an INT during that 70 yard drive, probabilities will not describe whether a player will fumble the ball or whether Manning will be sacked or a player will not run out of bounds when he should and run out the clock.

I understand why you want to use them, but they stopped us on 3rd down....why would we think we would make it on 4th? Especially since giving Manning the ball on the 30 is basically committing suicide

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Probabilities aren't part of the game on the field.

lolololololol

thats really I all need to say to your post

Stats are the greatest liars in the world, I know cause I work with them and I can make them say whatever I want.

either you are lying or you don't "use stats" in any meaningful capacity

 

[SeymourTrophies]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

After all the years of cheating Belichick thinks he is unstoppable and can do anything he wants. Look at SB 42. he goes for it on fourth down when he could have kicked a field goal, then with under a minute left, he had enough time left to get a field goal to tie the game, but instead Brady throws 3 erratic bombs that are incomplete and they lose the SB and the perfect season.

Cheaters never win, when they do they are given an asterisk*

Methinks you need to read a little interview with Jimmie Johnson where he says that everyone does it, and the best man in the game at what we got caught for works in Indy.

Now,
Jason Campbell would have given us trouble if we gave him the ball on our 30.

I'm surprised there wasn't a QB draw in there. The play calling seemed way too predictable/ typical for it to actually be happening.

 

[Nunchucks]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

lolololololol

thats really I all need to say to your post



either you are lying or you don't "use stats" in any meaningful capacity

You still aren't understanding. Just because the aggregate stats say that a QB gets sacked 1% of the time that they drop back doesn't mean that the next drop back means they won't get sacked. Stats are lying to you and you are letting them lie.

Just because you have a 50% chance of flipping a coin and having it turn up heads, doesn't mean that you won't flip the coin 10 times in a row and have it turn up heads each time. You are making the most common mistake people make by using stats.

 

[JAYHAWKS34]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

either we trust our offense way too much or our D not enough.... terrible call either way :nono:

 

[duce110]

Re: AdvancedNFLStats.com: 4th down call gave Pats best chance to win

i honestly dont think it was a bad call... we thought his offense was good to get 2 yards (which it did by the waii)... Just a ref wantin to put his mark on the game... Nothin new in the NFL...

 

[DarrylS]

Re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here

Consider this, this specific play had 2. options.. and Brady could make a choice dependent on the defense...

A. Delay of game, take the 5 yards and punt
B. Brady observes the matchups, and notices that Faulk is 1-1 with a safety.. he knows it is mismatch and calls an audible... it works 90% of the time, last niight it did not.

 

[DarrylS]

Re: AdvancedNFLStats.com: 4th down call gave Pats best chance to win

I have posted that article, which is from the NY Times twice now and it has fallen on deaf ears... hysteria is a better alternative.