Reaching for Barwin Against Patriot-Belichick Philosophy?

[DaBruinz]

No I mean actuall scouts, you know the ones who write the " Scouting reports"
According to scouts:

Maybin: 22 reps on the bench Barwin: 21 well there goes the "too weak" argument. He's no more of an Unfinnished product than Barwin is and he has just as much if not more upside. Maybin hasnt grown into his body and probably could have used another year in college but right now he is considerd by most a top 15 pick, pretty good for a guy who should have stayed an extra year. By next year this time he will start to max out his frame. Maybin also has the quickest first step in this draft and is graded as a 95 overall grade by scouts inc. Barwin:81 overall. Run stopping:Spent a lot of time last season working head-up on the TE as PSU's strong-side DE. Shows discipline with backside containment. Stays low and fights to keep his positioning. Can stack versus most TE's but gets washed out too easily by bigger OT's when they get into his pads. Barwin:Can get engulfed by bigger offensive tackles and going to have problems holding ground against the run if asked to line up at defensive end in a 4-3 scheme but big and strong enough to hold his own working against tight ends. Sideline-to-sideline run defender. Reliable open field tackler that wraps up upon contact. Both received a grade of 3. 1 is the highest 5 the lowest so its safe to say both need work in the run game.

Maybe is intriguing because of his age. You are right that he hasn't grown into his body yet. The bench press only measures arm strength. It doesn't take into consideration leg strength. And that is where I believe that Barwin has an edge. When I look at Maybin, I see a kid that will have issues with his leg strength during the first 3-4 years at the next level. I don't see that with Barwin.

I think in terms of potential, Maybin has slightly higher upside, but it will take longer to reach it as well.

 

[DaBruinz]

I don't recall any reports of an attempt to move up, not to say there wasn't any.

The correct question for that pick will be formulated when #47 is used in this draft...assuming it doesn't get bumped ahead a third time. Mayo was drafted with the #28 pick that year...

They Pats tried, unsuccessfully, to move and and grab Bradley. They couldn't find any takers, unforutnately. It was a story that came out after the draft and confirmed by Reiss.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

They Pats tried, unsuccessfully, to move and and grab Bradley. They couldn't find any takers, unforutnately. It was a story that came out after the draft and confirmed by Reiss.

:enranged:

 

[Revman]

Barwin is a reach in round one. He is multidimensional. Unlike Mayo-whom Belicheck drafted simply as an ILB. Barwin may very well be no better than Gary Guyton-undrafted last year, Guyton found several roles on Patriots team. Barwin makes sense if you pick him in round 2-3. A talented guy with versatility. I do not think he is a premier pass rusher against NFL tackles. I think Pat's should grab the guy that can step into a determined need and make significant contributions right away. The obvious needs are Ilb-PASS RUSHER-SAFETY. Need a DL-man to challenge for a starters role by next season with contracts up. Would love a young center/guard to be ready to start in a year. Pat's have already signed 11 players that were not on last years roster.So I am sure that the focus is winning this year. They will look at a whole new set of circumstances in the future. Right now is the motto. Who plays right now and makes Pat's a better team. I think the 3 best value players that can help immediately are:

1. Maualuga- If we don't draft him he will be a terror for several years on someone elses club. I have little doubt. Imagine if he goes to Dolphins or Jets. He will be someone that will make it harder to beat.

2. Mack-Here is a value. I say that he is the most ready lineman in the draft. Meaning he will start as a rookie for someone. Be a pro-bowl type center for several years. I would love to have him blocking for Brady the next 5 seasons.

3. Evander Hood- Right team picks him, coaches him inot a system he will be the best D-lineman out of this draft in 3 years. De-or DT. Ty Warren came out of big 12. College DT,transitioned to 3/4 end and has been one of the unsung players for our title teams.He does alot of the dirty work-doesn't get accolades. Hood is that type-but with much better pass rush moves.

* I think these 3 guys will be 3 that we will look back on in 3 years and see are all real good NFL players.

* Barwin is not one of these guys in my opinion.

 

[maverick4]

Barwin is a reach in round one. He is multidimensional. Unlike Mayo-whom Belicheck drafted simply as an ILB. Barwin may very well be no better than Gary Guyton-undrafted last year, Guyton found several roles on Patriots team. Barwin makes sense if you pick him in round 2-3. A talented guy with versatility. I do not think he is a premier pass rusher against NFL tackles. I think Pat's should grab the guy that can step into a determined need and make significant contributions right away. The obvious needs are Ilb-PASS RUSHER-SAFETY. Need a DL-man to challenge for a starters role by next season with contracts up. Would love a young center/guard to be ready to start in a year. Pat's have already signed 11 players that were not on last years roster.So I am sure that the focus is winning this year. They will look at a whole new set of circumstances in the future. Right now is the motto. Who plays right now and makes Pat's a better team. I think the 3 best value players that can help immediately are:

1. Maualuga- If we don't draft him he will be a terror for several years on someone elses club. I have little doubt. Imagine if he goes to Dolphins or Jets. He will be someone that will make it harder to beat.

2. Mack-Here is a value. I say that he is the most ready lineman in the draft. Meaning he will start as a rookie for someone. Be a pro-bowl type center for several years. I would love to have him blocking for Brady the next 5 seasons.

3. Evander Hood- Right team picks him, coaches him inot a system he will be the best D-lineman out of this draft in 3 years. De-or DT. Ty Warren came out of big 12. College DT,transitioned to 3/4 end and has been one of the unsung players for our title teams.He does alot of the dirty work-doesn't get accolades. Hood is that type-but with much better pass rush moves.

* I think these 3 guys will be 3 that we will look back on in 3 years and see are all real good NFL players.

* Barwin is not one of these guys in my opinion.

Thank you for that well reasoned analysis.

 

[dryheat44]

Am I willing to bet two week's salary that I know more about football than a lot of these so called experts who have never played a snap but blog like they're fuggin Pioli? yeah. Do I put in as much time as them? No, I have a job that is completely unrelated to football.

Bro, I'm not trying to be a ****, I just get so frustrated with some of the information put out there by some of these services. For all we know, Barwin may very well be a top 10 pick who is the second coming of Lawrence Taylor. Conversely, for all we know he could be a 4th rounder who plays tight end for a year and then bounces around the league as a ST'er.

The value that Barwin presents is a guy who has demonstrated everything you look for in a stud 3-4 weakside OLB or "Jack" linebacker. If they call the position Jack in NE, I have no idea, but that's how I refer to the position. Further, his relatively small sample size will likely make him available between 20 and 50, picks NE has in abundance. Barwin has top 10 potential and skill, and has demonstrated everything you look for in risk minimization. The other 3-4 prospects have nowhere near his requisate skill set for this scheme and he is likely available when the Patriots pick. If he had two similar seasons to the one he had this past year, he would be a top five pick. It is very rare that a player of this calibur will be available when the Patriots pick. There is an opportunity here for the Pats to land a potential top 5 tallent in the 20-50 range. That's the value.

Apropos to nothing but language, I believe the "Jack" linebacker is the inside backer away from the strength of the formation. The weakside OLB is the "Will", just like in the 4-3.

Carry on, then.

 

[Synovia]

Until last year, he hadn't used a first-rounder on a LB. Until the year before that, he hadn't used a first-rounder on a DB. He still hasn't used a first-rounder on a QB or WR.

The whole "Team XXX doesn't draft position YYY in the first round" is ridiculous. You only get 1 first round pick per year. There are 16 or so discrete positions. So, unless a team has had the same coach for 16+ years, then theres no way for them to have drafted every position in the first round.

 

[DaBruinz]

The whole "Team XXX doesn't draft position YYY in the first round" is ridiculous. You only get 1 first round pick per year. There are 16 or so discrete positions. So, unless a team has had the same coach for 16+ years, then theres no way for them to have drafted every position in the first round.

When talking about this subject in regards to BB, most people include his time as HC of the Browns.

 

[billdog3484]

This may be the oddest conclusion I've seen yet, because you're basically arguing "Because there are a bunch of OLBs still on the board, BB shouldn't take any of them." And, of course, you're assuming you know what BB's draft board looks like.

i have to disagree. if there are a lot of players with similar abilities there is no need to take one of them. ESPECIALLY, with all the moving around we figure to do.

For example, say we want an OLB when we are drafting at 34. there are 4 guys we are eyeing, but none of them stand out, all we know is we want 1 of them. We can either (1) trade our current pick, or (2) draft a player at a different position where the depth is likely to drop off.

now, there are 13 spots between #35 and our next pick #47. At any time, if we see 2 or 3 or those similar OLBs go, we can move up and snag one of the remaining players

 

[maverick4]

i have to disagree. if there are a lot of players with similar abilities there is no need to take one of them. ESPECIALLY, with all the moving around we figure to do.

For example, say we want an OLB when we are drafting at 34. there are 4 guys we are eyeing, but none of them stand out, all we know is we want 1 of them. We can either (1) trade our current pick, or (2) draft a player at a different position where the depth is likely to drop off.

now, there are 13 spots between #35 and our next pick #47. At any time, if we see 2 or 3 or those similar OLBs go, we can move up and snag one of the remaining players

Yup. It's possible BB has Barwin ranked in the same class as Curry, but that is unlikely, and if so what you wrote is spot on.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

A talented guy with versatility. I do not think he is a premier pass rusher against NFL tackles. I think Pat's should grab the guy that can step into a determined need and make significant contributions right away. The obvious needs are Ilb-PASS RUSHER-SAFETY.

So what makes a great NFL pass rusher:

1.) Explosive first step. Barwin has it.

2.) Strength/Superior use of the hands. Barwin does not have it.

3.) Multiple moves/techniques to set up the tackle. Barwin has only one move. Straight up the field and around the corner.

So Barwin only has 1 of the 3, fortunately it is the most important attribute needed and it cannot be taught!

The thing is - Barwin does not need to come in and start. He only needs to spend his freshman year upgrading ST and getting physically stronger and technically better. By year 2, he should at least become the 3rd down pass rush demon we desperately need. And by year three a full time member of the base defense.

Is this developmental course any different from what BB did with Meriweather, except Merriweather got on the field a half year quicker due to Rodney's injury?

Not everybody is going to track developmentally like Mankins did.

 

[maverick4]

The thing is - Barwin does not need to come in and start. He only needs to spend his freshman year upgrading ST and getting physically stronger and technically better. .

Do you think he would beat out Shawn Crable in two years?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

One issue that increases skepticism for whether the Pats (specifically the Pats) will take Barwin higher than Mayock, Brandt, or others have him ranked (roughly a mid-2nd-rounder) is that there are MANY talented DE and OLB prospects this year.

There have been many classic draft threads through the years on this forum, speculating on methodology, value groupings (by rookBoston I believe), and the myth or explaining of the Pats 'reaching' for certain players. Based on these understandings, it isn't convincing or consistent why the Patriots would use a #1 pick on Barwin. I believe it goes against Belichick's history and his own draft strategy.

Belichick took Watson and others (like Mayo) "early" because he saw a major drop-off in the next best available talent by the time his next pick came around, and possibly because he couldn't predict how long that player would last. He also moved/traded up to grab certain players because he likely projected that player to be the last left in the same caliber/talent grouping, and wanted to nab him before certain teams he knew were interested could pick. He also stayed pat and took Seymour and Warren when there were other more touted defensive players he could have traded up for (no matter how much the media hyped up those other players). Finally, he has never drafted a major positional conversion project before, especially with a high pick.

All of these reasons make it hard to believe Belichick would use a 1st round pick on a player when it's very likely there will still be similarly comparable players still left on the board.

Is taking Barwin in the first round a reach when you know he will not be there by the time you pick next? I do not think so, and BB has demonstrated time and agin that he follows that philosophy.

He did it with Mankins, Bethel, Brock Williams and he did it last year with Wheatley. Sometimes he gets burned, Bradley for instance. But when you pick in the last part of rounds year after year, you have to be prepared to overdraft for a player, if you feel strongly about that player.

 

[DaBruinz]

So what makes a great NFL pass rusher:

1.) Explosive first step. Barwin has it.

2.) Strength/Superior use of the hands. Barwin does not have it. Barwin's hand technique is that of a 1st year DE. But if you look at his technique from game 1 to the Bowl game, it improved tremendously. When I watched the Combine, I saw that Barwin was one of only 3 or 4 LB prospects to do the Rushing drills the way the coaches said to do them.

His arm strength is adequate and he has very good leg strength that will help him hold up at the point of attack.

3.) Multiple moves/techniques to set up the tackle. Barwin has only one move. Straight up the field and around the corner. Barwin has more than one move. Barwin has used other moves (spin, swim, club, etc) to shed the OT, TE, or FB. They weren't used regularly because you use your best move until you aren't beating them anymore and then you switch.

So Barwin only has 1 of the 3, fortunately it is the most important attribute needed and it cannot be taught!

The thing is - Barwin does not need to come in and start. He only needs to spend his freshman year upgrading ST and getting physically stronger and technically better. By year 2, he should at least become the 3rd down pass rush demon we desperately need. And by year three a full time member of the base defense.

This is all that I have been asking for of him. Some people have this irrational idea that I've been proclaiming Barwin the equivalent of the next coming because they either exaggerate or irrationally read into what is said.

Is this developmental course any different from what BB did with Meriweather, except Merriweather got on the field a half year quicker due to Rodney's injury?

Not everybody is going to track developmentally like Mankins did.

I full agree with most of your assessment, Ochmed. I have never said that Barwin isn't raw. He is. And he'll take some time to be productive as a 3-4 OLB, but he's got damn near elite, if not elite, football tangibles and intangibles and a "Rudy" attitude of "just put me in coach".

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Right now is the motto.

Except that, you know, it's not:

“We are building a big, strong, fast, smart, tough and disciplined football team that consistently competes for championships.”

When the Patriots look at "values," they're looking at values over the life of the contract, not necessarily in the first year; that's true even of first-round picks.

 

[maverick4]

Ochmed, given the fact Barwin needs development, do you think he'll beat out Crable or the others currently on the roster? Those guys have a year in the system and came out of college with huge potential as well.

 

[TriplecHamp]

All I am saying is Barwin is not the best 3-4 OLB in this draft. I would rather have English, Maybin, Orakpo, E.Brown, Clay Mathews because of his versatiltiy, and cushing because of his versatilty. the first four I believe will be better Pass rusheres, and the last two because they are more versatile, and I believe can put up similar numbers in the passing rush. I think all of them could use the time to develop pass coverage skills but at the same time so could barwin. People say Barwin is raw in the pass rushing department but he is better in space/against the run so he would need a year or two to develop into a full time starter. I dont want our first pick in the draft to be a ST contriubuter, I want him to be somebody who will be in the game on third downs his first year rushing the passer. I think thoes above can do that better than Barwin. So what I am trying to say is I would take one of the better pass rushers and let them develope the coverage skills and run game. Than get Barwin who will prob be a special teamer. look at it this way, would you rather have a player who will be a good pass rusher in his first year or a player who will be a special teamer for the most part in his first year as the #23 overall pick. Barwin after three years I think will be a player who is a good solid overall player but not a "Great Pass Rusher" I would rather have a great Pass Rusher and a decent coverman.

 

[DaBruinz]

All I am saying is Barwin is not the best 3-4 OLB in this draft. I would rather have English, Maybin, Orakpo, E.Brown, Clay Mathews because of his versatiltiy, and cushing because of his versatilty. the first four I believe will be better Pass rusheres, and the last two because they are more versatile, and I believe can put up similar numbers in the passing rush. I think all of them could use the time to develop pass coverage skills but at the same time so could barwin. People say Barwin is raw in the pass rushing department but he is better in space/against the run so he would need a year or two to develop into a full time starter. I dont want our first pick in the draft to be a ST contriubuter, I want him to be somebody who will be in the game on third downs his first year rushing the passer. I think thoes above can do that better than Barwin. So what I am trying to say is I would take one of the better pass rushers and let them develope the coverage skills and run game. Than get Barwin who will prob be a special teamer. look at it this way, would you rather have a player who will be a good pass rusher in his first year or a player who will be a special teamer for the most part in his first year as the #23 overall pick. Barwin after three years I think will be a player who is a good solid overall player but not a "Great Pass Rusher" I would rather have a great Pass Rusher and a decent coverman.

I have to disagree with you. Its my opinion that none of the players you've mentioned fall into the category of being able to step into the 3-4 2 gap defense and be a good pass rusher in his first year. Maybe in sub-packages after half a season, but not right out of TC. Especially not Orakpo, Mathews, Cushing, or Maybin. Maybe Brown or English, but I am not holding my breath.

Now, please correct me if I am wrong, but most, if not all of the players you've mentioned have spent very little time (if any) on special teams. To me, that gives Barwin an advantage. Is it enough to make him a 1st round pick? I don't know. But I'd rather him than the others you've mentioned because I don't believe that their abilities translate as well into the 3-4 2 Gap OLB. Brown and English would be ahead of Cushing, Matthews, Maybin and Orakpo.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I have to disagree with you. Its my opinion that none of the players you've mentioned fall into the category of being able to step into the 3-4 2 gap defense and be a good pass rusher in his first year. Maybe in sub-packages after half a season, but not right out of TC. Especially not Orakpo, Mathews, Cushing, or Maybin. Maybe Brown or English, but I am not holding my breath.

Now, please correct me if I am wrong, but most, if not all of the players you've mentioned have spent very little time (if any) on special teams. To me, that gives Barwin an advantage. Is it enough to make him a 1st round pick? I don't know. But I'd rather him than the others you've mentioned because I don't believe that their abilities translate as well into the 3-4 2 Gap OLB. Brown and English would be ahead of Cushing, Matthews, Maybin and Orakpo.

Matthews made a living on Special Teams before he started getting so much playing time.

 

[DaBruinz]

Matthews made a living on Special Teams before he started getting so much playing time.

Thanks for the correction.