One issue that increases skepticism for whether the Pats (specifically the Pats) will take Barwin higher than Mayock, Brandt, or others have him ranked (roughly a mid-2nd-rounder) is that there are MANY talented DE and OLB prospects this year.
There aren't that many "talented" DE and OLB prospects who projects into 3-4 OLBs.
There have been many classic draft threads through the years on this forum, speculating on methodology, value groupings (by rookBoston I believe), and the myth or explaining of the Pats 'reaching' for certain players. Based on these understandings, it isn't convincing or consistent why the Patriots would use a #1 pick on Barwin. I believe it goes against Belichick's history and his own draft strategy.
People claim the Pats "reach" for players because they base that information off where prospects are rated according to draft sites or these so called experts. The Patriots use their own scouts and have their own rating system. And, from the mouth of Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli, the Patriots draft based on Best Value Available according to their draft board. And they have spelled out in Management Secrets of the New England Patriots and, to a lesser extent, Patriot Reign, how they rate prospects. Its a 1-10 scale with 10 being the top and 1 being they wouldn't touch the player if he was the last player alive and the roster was empty.
Now, considering that BB has a history of "reaching" for players based on the draft sites (Watson, Mayo, Wilhite, Wheatley, Hobbs, Mankins, etc, etc,) how can you say it goes against his draft strategy and history?
Belichick took Watson and others (like Mayo) "early" because he saw a major drop-off in the next best available talent by the time his next pick came around, and possibly because he couldn't predict how long that player would last. He also moved/traded up to grab certain players because he likely projected that player to be the last left in the same caliber/talent grouping, and wanted to nab him before certain teams he knew were interested could pick. He also stayed pat and took Seymour and Warren when there were other more touted defensive players he could have traded up for (no matter how much the media hyped up those other players). Finally, he has never drafted a major positional conversion project before, especially with a high pick.
Belichick took Watson because he couldn't trade the pick and Watson was the BVA on the Patriots draft board.
Ummm.. Where are you getting that the Patriots could have traded UP to get someone better than Seymour? The Patriots DID trade up to get Warren.
You are dead wrong about BB having never drafted a major positional conversion project before. Justin Rogers, Jeremy Mincey, and Tully Banta-Cain were all draft picks who played DE in college and were converting to 3-4 OLB.
Just because BB has never drafted 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB project in the first round doesn't mean it can't or won't happen. Prior to Wilfork in 2004, BB had only drafted 1 underclassmen. That was Patrick Pass. Prior to 2008, BB had never drafted a LB in the first round. Prior to 2007, BB hadn't drafted a DB in the first round while the HC of the Patriots. Prior to 2005, BB had never drafted an interior lineman in the 1st round, yet he drafted Mankins. Prior to 2006, BB hadn't drafted a RB in the first round, yet he drafted Maroney. If there is anything that I've learned about BB over the years of following the draft, its that past history does not guarantee future actions.
All of these reasons make it hard to believe Belichick would use a 1st round pick on a player when it's very likely there will still be similarly comparable players still left on the board.
Just because its hard to believe, that doesn't make it impossible.
Now, as for this "similarly comparable players," who are they? And what makes you believe it won't take them 2-3 years to be productive? And can they be productive on Special Teams while gaining the reps and experience necessary to make an impact as an every down LB?
