I think the Chargers have the best D in the NFL. They create turnovers vs the pass but may be a bit vulnerable vs the run with a hobbled J. Williams, and playing the nickel most of the game. I see Maroney having a good day running the shotgun draw and the screen.
The Chargers O-line is impressive, but won't be able to maul the Pats like they did the absurdly overrated Colt D-line. Next Sunday's matchup will be a stalemate, or even a slight win for the Pats due to the rest of the bye week and a less physical game last week. So if Rivers plays I expect him to have much more trouble in the pocket than he did vs the Colts. Combine that with the frigid temperatures and his less than rocket arm, and IMO Rivers will be less efficient, if he plays, than last week. Volek, with his mobility and better arm, presents a bigger risk/reward. He is more likely to blow up and throw multiple picks, but he could pull an AJ Feeley and have the game of his life. His history in Tennessee suggests there is a possibility of the latter. His deep ball is impressive.
The Pats D is vulnerable in the middle since A. Thomas was moved to OLB. The other ILBs do not have the athleticism to cover and make game changing plays, and give up too much space out of fear of surrendering the big play. If Gates is half speed that could mitigate this flaw a bit, but if V. Jackson is willing to go high over the middle there will be space to exploit, provided Hardwick can allow the Qb to step up and deliver the ball vs Wilfork.
The Pats are very familiar with C. Chambers' game, having played him for many years. Nothing he does will surprise them, and i do believe he and Jackson will be good for a few explosive plays. However, Chambers has a history of shaky hands and frigid weather conditions won't help that longstanding problem. I believe the play of Vincent Jackson is THE KEY to Chargers hopes. if he continues to play like a probowler the Chargers can stay in this game throughout. If he turtles in the weather and the bright lights the Chargers have no chance.
The Chargers D will play with great violence and passion. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they force a fumble and get a pick in this game. I don't believe the Pats O will play a flawlessly vs a D with this degree of physical talent.
Turner will have a solid game, and even make one or two flashy plays to give his team scoring opportunities. The Bolts will exploit the Seymour/Thomas/Seau side of the field vs the run, just as they did the Seymour/Banta Cain/Bruschi side last season. I don't see Tomlinson being his normal dynamic self, and Turner may be their better option.
Moss will burn the Chargers at least once over the top. The Chargers safeties are inadequate, and, assuming Cromartie is assigned to Moss (which I would be surprised at since he plays the opposite side of the field), he is better at this stage of his career as a playmaker than a cover guy. I could see him being schooled for most of the game, but coming through with an INT anyway, though I wonder how well an FSU kid in his 2nd year will adjust to 10 degree weather. Those sleek atheltic moves may get sluggish.
This will be a game decided in the red zone, where the Chargers have become very solid on both sides of the ball. The Chargers' athletic arrogance, assuming they can match up with Moss, will give #81 room to work and he will catch a TD. Maroney will have a very solid game in the 80 to 90 yard range, though I do see his first fumble of the year. Rivers/Volek will make some plays but also some mistakes. Tomlinson will not be a major factor. The Burner will run well, for over 70 yards with a good average per carry. Chambers will make a 20+ catch, but drop several others and turtle. Jackson will play tough but take a vicious hit and start to hear footsteps. Welker will take a beating. Brady will throw a pick, and Watson will drop a key pass or two. Merriman will be neutralized by Light. Stallworth will work the slip screens and the cold weather will make tackling him a chore. Final score 24-17 Pats.
