Your 2016 Pittsburgh Steelers...

[lillloyd]

Our defense has the habit at times of making ordinary QBs look like pro bowlers. So I wont be surprised if throws it all over the pats on sunday. Regarding pre season performances of his , its had to gauge .Garrapolo looked quite bad in the week 3 pre season game as well. Also ,I am trying to remember, wasnt landry jones the QB when you guys beat the raiders in a shootout at home last year?

Landry came out in relief in two games last year and to his credit played well (AZ and OAK). His stat lines looked better than his game however, as his yardage came mostly on catch-and-runs by superior athletes (AB and Bryant).

His only full-game performance was at KC, and he was pretty dreadful. He also somehow managed two INTs in four total throws in very brief relief of Ben at SEA.

Jones is in the final year of his rookie contract. It would not surprise me at all if Pitt went another direction next year at backup (again, really the QB2 job was supposed to be Gradkowski's but he just kept getting hurt)...and if Jones was out of football entirely as of next year.

I hope he proves me wrong tomorrow...but IMO he's really a borderline QB3 (if that) and an INT machine.

 

[lillloyd]

Nice writeup lilloyd - I'd be curious to get your prediction of the score with a healthy big Ben. My gut says 28 - 20 Pats. I know all signs would point to a shootout but unlike teams like the Colts both of these teams play defense.

Having said that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats put 35 or more on the board tomorrow but that's only because Ben won't be around to keep TB12 and the Pats O off the field.

My prediction if only Big Ben were healthy would still be a pretty comfortable (10pt spread?) Pats win.

If Pitt were at *full strength* with most or all of their players healthy (even beyond Big Ben) I'd pick Pitt in a shootout, 35-31 or something like that.

Again, this is not to say that I think Pitt is the better overall team; rather, this is the type of midseason home marquee matchup that Pitt typically gets geeked up for and does well in. So under very favorable circumstances (at home, fully healthy) I think Pitt could win in a shootout.

But more to the point: at Gillette, in the playoffs, etc. - that's a different deal entirely. (IMO your coaching staff in the playoffs is the equivalent to an extra HoF player on the field.) I could maybe fathom putting money on Pitt under the right circumstances for a midseason game at Heinz...but in the playoffs, on the road, no.

 

[lillloyd]

Needless to say, the limits of QB longevity are a popular topic around these parts. Brady is entering uncharted territory. Based on past QB history this should be just about his last rodeo, but there are several factors suggesting otherwise:

1. So far he's exhibited no skill decline or adjustments due to age-related limitations.
2. He hasn't missed a game to injury in 8 years.
3. He's off the charts on devotion to fitness, including a focus on flexibility for injury prevention.
4. He plays in the "hands off the QBs" NFL era.

Ben checks box #1, but not 2-4. (IMO his style of play earlier in his career largely cancelled out the benefits of the QB protection rules.) In terms of "playing age," Brady at 39, Brees at 37 and Ben at 34 might actually be pretty comparable. I wonder if any of the league's young QBs can really fill the void they'll leave behind.

Another big advantage for Brady is that he plays within a system that places a lot of emphasis on short, precision throws. He doesn't have to maintain an Elway-type howitzer to be dominant. So if father time takes a couple of mph off his fastball, so be it.

Brady's really a marvel. Barring injury (and of course that becomes more iffy as time goes on) I could see him playing for several more years.

 

[Joker]

yeah, but Brady is a lousy QB when the ball is inflated to proper levels...Brady needs to have the ball deflated by approximately the weight of a sheet of looseleaf paper or he's a complete bum...if you doubt me just read what Roger Goodell has to say about him. Compared to Shady, woman beating, raping,murderous steroid thugs are fine outstanding NFL citizens.

 

[supafly]

Brady needs to have the ball deflated by approximately the weight of a sheet of looseleaf paper or he's a complete bum...

1/2 the weight of a dollar bill--or at least that's what they were saying in the media last year.

Ridiculous that anyone would actually believe that would make any kind of difference, especially when his passing statistics have historically been better on the road.

 

[PF_SU]

Has anyone besides BUF had a good day running on you? It seems the run D is pretty stout...

Run defence should be one strength of the team. David Johnson ran for 89 yards on 16 carries. But outside of that one 45-yard run (where the linemen were in position but failed to tackle him in the backfield) he had 44 yards on 15 carries (2.9 YPC). Miami didn't have much of an opportunity to run since they were down big pretty fast, but even when they tried they couldn't get much. The Texans had a bit of success with Lamar Miller getting 80 yards on 21 carries. The Browns rushing attack got completely shut down with Crowell and Johnson combining for 23 yards on 17 carries (1.4 YPC). Last week the Bengals tried to run with Bernard and Hill getting 28 carries between them, but they only got 87 yards out of it (3.1 YPC).

So yes, so far only Buffalo had a good day rushing (aided by a terrible day of the team tackling, they missed so many that it was astounding considering that the Patriots usually are a good tackling team). But even that has to be looked at carefully: Taylor got 28 yards on 5 attempts. Gillislee had 30 yards on 6 carries. McCoy ran for 70 yards on 19 carries, which was the second-worst YPC number for him of the season (3.7, his worst was 3.6 against the Ravens).

Here's another question: does your pressure 'travel well'? While it's obviously true of most teams, I really feel Pitt's OL and DL have an unusually high disparity between home and road performance. We actually have a bit of a pass rush at home, but have zero on the road. How are the Pats in this regard? If we can keep Landry clean, there's at least a theoretical chance of hanging in for a while...but if he's getting pressure I'd say our chances are nonexistent.

There isn't much of a disparity between home and road games. The rush is pretty much average anywhere. The line can get pressure, but have trouble converting the pressure in to sacks without the LBs blitzing. The DTs aren't much of a threat pass-rushing, but the LBs on the other hand (if Collins can play) are probably the best in the NFL rushing the QB. Actually, the team had the best pass rushing performance on the road in Arizona where they harrassed Carson Palmer for 3.5 quarters. They had their worst pass rush game at home against Buffalo where they struggled getting any pressure on Taylor (who got the ball out pretty quick) and when they had the opportunity to sack him on back-to-back possessions (Collins and Sheard had their hands on him) they couldn't bring him down.

 

[lillloyd]

Resurrecting an old thread - and frankly thrilled that I'm even in a position to do so, given where Pitt was last time around.

I'm hoping to have time to post one of my mini-novellas in a new thread--very curious to hear the thoughts of Pats Nation. So hopefully later this evening or sometime tomorrow you'll have some more Steelers tidbits to mull over.

That said, here's the executive summary of what's to come:

• Pittsburgh has basically had three different seasons and three different teams this year, which makes it tough to evaluate how good they actually are
• While it may not yield a different outcome, this will certainly be a different team that comes to Gillette - and I mean that in a very literal sense, given the sheer number of guys who were injured the first game and the number of younger starters that have since been promoted
• While it may not be enough to overcome the Pats, Pittsburgh has made major strides in key areas since midseason
• Pitt's main weaknesses in this game are its lack of a reliable receiving threat opposite Brown, and its enormous defensive matchup problems with Lewis and White in space
• I actually believe Pitt has its best chance in years to defeat New England....*BUT*...
• ...I sure as hell wouldn't bet real money on it, because at the end of the day it's still Brady and BB...in the playoffs...at home. (sigh)

 

[ViperGTS]

Resurrecting an old thread - and frankly thrilled that I'm even in a position to do so, given where Pitt was last time around.

I'm hoping to have time to post one of my mini-novellas in a new thread--very curious to hear the thoughts of Pats Nation. So hopefully later this evening or sometime tomorrow you'll have some more Steelers tidbits to mull over.

That said, here's the executive summary of what's to come:

• Pittsburgh has basically had three different seasons and three different teams this year, which makes it tough to evaluate how good they actually are
• While it may not yield a different outcome, this will certainly be a different team that comes to Gillette - and I mean that in a very literal sense, given the sheer number of guys who were injured the first game and the number of younger starters that have since been promoted
• While it may not be enough to overcome the Pats, Pittsburgh has made major strides in key areas since midseason
• Pitt's main weaknesses in this game are its lack of a reliable receiving threat opposite Brown, and its enormous defensive matchup problems with Lewis and White in space
• I actually believe Pitt has its best chance in years to defeat New England....*BUT*...
• ...I sure as hell wouldn't bet real money on it, because at the end of the day it's still Brady and BB...in the playoffs...at home. (sigh)

If it was Ben of 4 years ago, I'd give the Steelers a good shot. He's not moving as well and that's affecting his game. He's better at home by a country mile and that HAS to count for something. This game reminds me of the Cincy game post KC debacle. They played offensively as bad against Houston and were lucky to win that game in the end. Everyone was scared of the Bengals at 5-0 or whatever, and AJ Green, and Sanu and Dalton plus the backs were going to cause massive problems. The Cincy D was playing really, really good.

What happensed that game? I'm feeling the same here. Sorry to say.