So assuming that we haven't got Welker, Vollmer, or Talib in the fold, here's one way to approach it.
Premise #1: The Patriots' offense is historically great with Wes Welker. Without him, they would drop from historically great down to merely being tremendous (top 2-3 in the NFL). I estimate that they would score about 28-30 points a game without Welker, as opposed to the 34 they score with him. His overall contributions are worth 4-6 points a game, IMO. But can a team with a 28-30 ppg offense win the Super Bowl? Absolutely positively yes.
Premise #2: The biggest area of need the Patriots have is on defense (pass rush and DBs, specifically) and wide receiver. Obviously if you let Welker go you create an even bigger need at the WR position.
Premise #3: The defense, full of young players, will probably improve *some* just due to increased experience. But not enough for my liking.
Premise #4: I have to assume that Dennard will miss some time due to his conviction. I have to plan on him not being around in 2013. If he is here, bonus. If I plan on him being here and he's not, it cripples my defense.
So here's the deal.
(1) Here (
) lists the highest paid corners in the NFL in 2012. Based on this information, I think the Pats re-sign Talib to a 4-year, $26 million contract. He can't expect to be a top 5 guy, but I think making more of it guaranteed entices him (say, $18 million of it). If you have to go an extra year at that rate to make him bite, so be it. So there's $6.5 million of the $15.5 million available, meaning I've got $9 million left.
(2) Sign either Reed or Woodson to a 3-year, $13.5 million deal to play safety. This is for two reasons. First, if Dennard is out, you can move McCourty to corner and have Reed/Woodson play with Gregory. And if he's there, you have Dennard/Talib at CB, and McCourty/Reed(Woodson) at S. That's a very, very strong defensive backfield. All four guys can cover and hit. And second, they draft a S and having Reed/Woodson serves as a great mentor and placeholder until that new guy is ready. That leaves me with $4.5 million left.
BTW, you can structure the contracts for Talib and Reed/Woodson in such a way that instead of $4.5 million left, you actually have about $7 million left, so I'm working with that number.
(3) Sign Freeney or Umenyiora (preferably Freeney) to be a situational pass rusher. I hope you can get one of them for $5 million a year over 3 years. This gives the Pats added help getting after the quarterback.
So I'm down to $2 million. With that, I'd re-sign Edelman and add a couple of depth moves to fill out the roster, especially on the OL where Dante can coach up a couple of JAGs into useful players.
So my pass defense looks like this:
DE Jones
DT Wilfork
DT Armstead
DE Freeney/Umenyiora
LB Ninkovich (in for Spikes in passing situations; he can cover better and rush the QB better)
LB Mayo
LB Hightower or Fletcher (Fletcher is better in coverage)
CB Talib
CB Dennard
S McCourty
S Reed/Woodson
That is, on paper, a MUCH improved defense against the pass. And it takes care of their biggest need on the entire team.
Now, that's it for free agency. And it brings me to the draft. They have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th round picks. I would use the 1st and 2nd round picks, and trade the 3rd rounder for a 4th and 5th rounders, just to add depth, unless there was a guy I wanted that's available in the 3rd round.
Round 1 - Tavon Austin, WR. The more I think about this guy the more I like him. He is unbelievable. Blazing speed (4.39). Can play RB or WR. Very good hands. Incredible playmaker. He not only helps you right now but he becomes the best WR target on the team for years to come.
Round 2 - DJ Swearinger, S. Per my comments on Reed/Woodson, the Pats will need a new young safety. I think Tavon Wilson has potential, but a guy like Swearinger has more, IMO. I think other possibilities could include Datone Jones (DE, UCLA), Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise St), Eric Reid (S, LSU), etc. Go with the best available safety here.
Round 4, 5, 7 - the best available D-linemen and DBs. I might even trade my 4th for a 5th and a 6th, meaning instead of 3 picks in this group, I'd have 4, thus increasing my chances of landing someone good.
So my offense, would then have a good player in Edelman plus a dynamic stud in Austin replacing Welker. Austin, Lloyd, Hernandez, Gronk, Ballard, Edelman, Vereen, Woodhead, Ridley, Bolden, Demps....that's a LOT of firepower to give Brady. Hope your OL holds up - that's the one big question mark, but again, I'm counting on Scarnecchia to do his work.
There's not enough money to get everyone you want, but this fills in the biggest holes and sets the team up not just now, but longer-term as well. I *think* they can do it with the budget you've allotted. (obviously nobody knows for sure)