What’s with 21st century people who think everything can and should be quantified?
All these draft numbers are well and good but fail to account for one of the biggest reasons draft picks fail which is that players too often becomes obsolete because of the constant coaching and personnel instability throughout the NFL.
Entering the 2022 season, only 10 coaches have been the HC of their team for, at least, 4 seasons or the length of a draftees initial contract. On average there are 8 coaching changes every year which means half the league changes head coaches every 2 years. When coaches change, schemes change, so you end up with a lot of recent draft picks who become system misfits because of it. New coaches and GMs want to succeed or fail going with “their guys” not holdovers from the previous regime.
It is patently foolish or an exercise in spin to judge the recent draft record of the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs et al by comparing them to league averages weighed down by the 22 teams that have had 2 or more Head Coaches and GMs during that time. Franchises with established systems like the Patriots should have a higher rate of success than the average.
The only true “randomness” of the process are injuries. Otherwise, it’s just the inadequate evaluations, poor judgement or misplaced objectives of those making the selections that result in failed draft picks
The biggest problem regarding draft picks isn't system change although that's certainly up there with injuries. Injuries are a killer. Most of the time its never fun switching coaches, terminology etc but players are somewhat used that by the time their in the league. It's not ideal and does hinder player development but that's the biggest reason why draft picks suffer, stall and ultimately burn out. I'd say development by a good stretch actually followed by injuries and coaching changes.
You're right about comparing a team with a new regime or w/e vs Bill and others who have almost bulletproof job security.
Anyway back to development ...
NFL prospect/player development is borderline terrible. I've touched on this subject before but year 1 is all about the team trying to get the prospect acclimated with how they do things. Coaches aren't working on a WR releases, QB mechanics or pass rushers moves although there is a little bit of that. It's mostly about install, how
we run this route, how
we workout etc it's all about getting that player to be a part of team. Not necessarily maxing out a prospects development as crazy as that seems.
Coaches aren't even trying to "develop" prospects until year 2 or even three depending on injury and other stuff. So development falls by the waist side right off the rip.
There's a big gap between player development and the team. I'd say roughly 70-80% of player development is on the player themselves. There just aren't many Scar's around that actually make players better. Again I think most would be surprised with that aspect. Coaches are teaching a system, installing for Sunday, working with 50+ players a week sometimes depending on injury. That's a ****t load of time and effort. Coaches just don't have the time for development.
Teams should have a guy like House in the building continually working with QB's. A WR specialist. Someone like Chuck Smith for the pass rushers. Someone that isn't necessarily there for the playbook or vs Buffalo next Sunday but specifically there for a WR releases and stems. Always looking a QB's mechanics which change over time and with age. There's a little of that in the league but not nearly enough. There's a reason these guys are so busy and the best of the best are paying them. Like if I'm a team I'm considering hiring guys like Von Miller, Robert Quinn or even a Matthew Slater. Some of these guys won't make good "coaches" but are great in other, specific areas.
There should be other "sides" on a team but NFL coaching is full nepotism and good old boys. If you ever put these guys on a board they'd look like an inbred family with so much crisscrossing and ties to each other. I suspect a lot would have trouble giving up "control" or w/e you want to call it. I'd go as far as to say they should extend that to drafting as well if not let the "development" side have a say. There's definitely room for improvement there as well.
I think player development would be #1 though. Teams should absolutely invest more in this area and be looking to really maximize each players skill set and tools.