Patriots Rumor Wolf turned down at least three 1sts from the Vikings

[Ross12]

Considering how we have holes all over the place this is a fireable offense. Turning down an offer like that reeks of a first year HC+GM duo thinking short-term.

Wouldn't trading the 3rd pick plus a couple of mid round picks for the 11th and 23rd picks and a first next year be the "short-term" play? They'd have been able to fix the tackle issue and possibly the WR issue but QB would still be a question mark. They would float up to a .500 team but no avenue for finding a franchise QB outside of dumb luck taking the 4th/5th/6th QB in a future draft.

Taking Maye at 3 leaves the team with a worse roster short-term but a potential franchise QB long-term. If they are able to patch the holes reasonably after another free agency and draft cycle from now and Maye develops then he will overcome roster deficiencies and as time progresses the team will become a true contender. Doesn't seem like "short-term" thinking to me.

 

[mgteich]

It's fubar if Maye sucks, it's genius if he's an All-Pro. To make a decision today is ridiculous.

I strongly, strongly disagree.

What you are saying is that decisions should NOT be judged on how likely they are to work, or (said in another way) the expected value of the choice.

If Maye has a 40% chance of being a top 10 QB, and a 40% chance of being a 4 year starter (but not top 10), then this was a great choice, whether he flames out or not, whether he plays a game or not
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[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Yep. You read that RIGHT..

Wolf turned down 11, 23 and a 1st in 2025.

That's the sort of deal that CHANGES teams and the Pats fubared it.

They could have had the QB, WR and OT ALL by 34..

Execs unfiltered on AFC's Draft class: Should the Patriots have traded down?

Execs were split on the Pats choosing Drake Maye over a boatload of picks, and they had questions about the Raiders taking TE Brock Bowers.

theathletic.com

This isn't about the LT and WR we could have had, this comes down to the player Drake Maye becomes.

For arguments sake, let's say he becomes the next Patrick Mahomes. Can you name a current LT/WR combo from any team in the NFL that would make you forgive the Pats for passing on the next Mahomes?

 

[Fuzz]

The appeal of the trade down for 11, 23, and #20 or so in 2025 was lower risk: many top 10 QB's are busts, and relatively few 1st round WR's and OT's are busts. But if the QB plays up to his potential, that's worth more than a lower level QB (say McCarthy) together with say a Guyton at 23 and whatever they would get a year from now.

Plus we'd have had to give up some draft capital to make the deal with Minn (unknown pick swaps), and more draft capital to move up to 10 or 9 to land McCarthy. And there was inherent risk/uncertainty of what QB's would go between 3 and 10. When you weigh all that, Wolf did the right thing.

Actually, someone from ESPN recently did that analysis (characterizing success as getting signed to a second contract), and WR had the highest bust rate of all positions at 73%. QB was 54% and OT was 41%.

2024 NFL Draft preview: What is the hit rate on positions selected in first round?

As we approach the 2024 NFL Draft, here is how well each position does after being selected in the first round.

www.usatoday.com

 

[203Pat]

This isn't about the LT and WR we could have had, this comes down to the player Drake Maye becomes.

For arguments sake, let's say he becomes the next Patrick Mahomes. Can you name a current LT/WR combo from any team in the NFL that would make you forgive the Pats for passing on the next Mahomes?

We have seen it with teams like the Jets or the Bengals last year when Burrow went down. Even when you hit on a bunch of draft picks if you don't have the quarterback it doesn't matter.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Unfortunately, the select the QB vs trade down for multiple picks debate has outlived the draft and rages on. To think that we were looking forward to the draft to change the discussion, LOL. At this point in time it is still a source of contention with posts slamming the team for taking the safe route by picking the QB and others claiming the team took the risky approach by betting so many resources on one pick. Without being able to see into the future no one really knows and no one will know for a long time.

 

[Steve102]

I strongly, strongly disagree.

What you are saying is that decisions should NOT be judged on how likely they are to work, or (said in another way) the expected value of the choice.

If Maye has a 40% chance of being a top 10 QB, and a 40% chance of being a 4 year starter (but not top 10), then this was a great choice, whether he flames out or not, whether he plays a game or not
=================================

I guess I am not very smart. Not sure what you mean.


What I am saying is if Maye turns out to be Trey Lance or Mac Jones, then the three R1s would make sense. If he turns out to be a multi year All-Pro and a HoF caliber guy, no amount of picks are worth that. If he's something in the middle, say Drew Bledsoe, then you have a debate on what should have been done differently on draft day. IMO, if he's Bledsoe 2.0, that's a win.

 

[borg]

Patriots moving forward with search for de facto GM following Bill Belichick's departure after 24 seasons

Another change could be coming to New England soon

www.cbssports.com

 

[mgteich]

I guess I am not very smart. Not sure what you mean.


What I am saying is if Maye turns out to be Trey Lance or Mac Jones, then the three R1s would make sense. If he turns out to be a multi year All-Pro and a HoF caliber guy, no amount of picks are worth that. If he's something in the middle, say Drew Bledsoe, then you have a debate on what should have been done differently on draft day. IMO, if he's Bledsoe 2.0, that's a win.

What decisions we should make should NOT be judged in hindsight after the results are in years later.

A decision is to be judged by how likely various results are to take place.
======
For example, if you are ready to bet on the roulette wheel and someone offers you $10 to your $1 that you can't land on red.

Would you take the offer?

Your approach is that the choice to take the bet is right or wrong depending on what happens. That approach isn't reasonable.

 

[Steve102]

What decisions we should make should NOT be judged in hindsight after the results are in years later.

A decision is to be judged by how likely various results are to take place.
======
For example, if you are ready to bet on the roulette wheel and someone offers you $10 to your $1 that you can't land on red.

Would you take the offer?

Your approach is that the choice to take the bet is right or wrong depending on what happens. That approach isn't reasonable.

I am no more lost than I was before, bud.

 

[PatsFan2]

I am no more lost than I was before, bud.

Me two.

 

[VrabelJr]

Patriots moving forward with search for de facto GM following Bill Belichick's departure after 24 seasons

Another change could be coming to New England soon

www.cbssports.com

This is embarrassing leadership. Our most important draft in decades and we rolled with the existing team and now want to look externally after the fact. Cue the clown cars.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

This is embarrassing leadership. Our most important draft in decades and we rolled with the existing team and now want to look externally after the fact. Cue the clown cars.

Some of this may be procedural mandated by the league to interview minority candidates as part of every executive search. Everything that I have heard is that Wolf is expected to be the guy.

 

[Steve102]

This is embarrassing leadership. Our most important draft in decades and we rolled with the existing team and now want to look externally after the fact. Cue the clown cars.

"We aren't going to mess around, wasting time with that crap pre-draft, because we want Eliot to focus on the draft. He will be named the GM once we have fulfilled the Rooney Rule, which we will do once everyone's calendar eases up in early May."

Oh, wait, they can't say that can they?

 

[Uptown]

 

[TommyD4207]

Joe Gibbs says hi with his SB winning QBs of Mark Rypien and Doug Williams.

That was nearly 40 years ago.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I said before the draft that with the first 2 picks locked in and
consensus top 3 QB's as we know ... the 3rd pick should command
1st pick value ... so of course it was not close and they chose correctly IMO

 

[The Gr8est]

I said before the draft that with the first 2 picks locked in and
consensus top 3 QB's as we know ... the 3rd pick should command
1st pick value ... so of course it was not close and they chose correctly IMO

There was no consensus #1 IMO.

I preferred Maye over Williams and Daniels.

 

[Mack Herron]

That was nearly 40 years ago.

Yup. Gotta work with the probabilities here. Assuming Maye was the top of the his board at 3, I can't knock Wolf for maximizing the chances of selecting the best player at the most important position. (If he liked McCarthy or others equally to Maye, he would have traded.)

 

[IcyPatriot]

There was no consensus #1 IMO.

I preferred Maye over Williams and Daniels.

Sure ... me also ... I like his ceiling.
I also think Daniels will be made of glass.