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The high majority of teams need to have the ball bounce their way, at multiple times throughout the season. We just saw a prime example of the amount of luck and good breaks needed to overcome major deficits in 2/3 postseason games. While some of that was obviously the excellent preparation and talent of the coaches and players, a lot of things had to happen (drawing specific matchups in the postseason such as the 6th and 4th seeded teams), locking up homefield advantage from a Cincinnati pick-six MNF game where another team scored at the right time to oust our competitor, and all of the things that happened in-between.
Even if you assume that there are going to be 8-10 solid contenders in the playoffs every year, it's highly unlikely that the previous year's winner is going to come up again. It'd be like writing a number on a ping pong ball, dropping it in with 8-10 other balls, and expecting the same exact number to come up twice in a row. It's not going to happen too often. Even if you cut the postseason field down to only 3 solid competitors from each conference (something that cannot be done anymore due to the emergence of WC teams), there are still going to be 6 quality teams, and an approximate 16-17 percent chance.
Free agency + the salary cap era have allowed for this kind of parity to happen, which makes the 03-04 back to back run all the more impressive.
I think it all comes down to making the playoffs. Once a team does that they have a decent chance of going all the way.
As for parity, it seems like the same teams make the playoffs every year with only a few exceptions.
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