BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2013
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A lot of people are making predictions about the Patriots (yours truly as well) and if we are to do that then we should try to know as much about the team as we can. One of the best ways to do that is look at last years team and try to figure out what gave them trouble and will those problems be repeated.
In my humble opinion you can cut the 2016 Patriots year in 2 pieces. The games with Brady and the games without him. Lets focus on the 15 games with him. In those 15 games the Patriots were pushed hard 4 times. The other games were in the bag comfortably in the 4th quarter. Those 4 games were Seattle (week 10), @NJY (week 12) Ravens (Week 14) and the Falcons (Superbowl). Besides those games it never felt like the Pats were close to losing at any other time.
The question is why these 4 games and not the others. What can we learn from them. Let's go a bit out of order.
Ravens week 14. The reason this game was close can be summed up in 2 words. Cyrus Jones. The mistakes made here are obvious and avoidable with botched STs plays turning a almost blowout into a nail biting in the mid 4th quarter. This doesn't really need to be broken down beyond that.
Falcons Super bowl - So much has been said about this game I feel going over it again would be a waste of time. Protecting Brady was of course one of the major issues. This may or may not improve on the year and of course is something to look at as to reasons the Pats could have a hard time vs some teams. I will leave it at that for this game.
These next 2 games will have more meat on the bone.
Seattle week 10. This was at home and the only game lost under Brady that year. There were many reasons this game was lost but if i had to name the main ones it would be these in order of importance. Poor pass defense, Inability to exploit a poor offensive line, losing the turnover battle 2-0 (the Edelman one was rare though). As for the first 2 I believe those could still be issues. As safe as Brady is with the ball he does tend to throw Picks against certain teams and Seattle is one (since 2012). I don't think that is avoidable. Also the Patriots don't have the personal to really exploit a team whose weakness is the offensive line this year so that is still an issue. As for the poor pass defense... It is my hope Gilmore can do something about it. That being said it is just the case with a mobile QB who can pass pretty well, a talented D that gets pressure and defends the pass. This team is just a hard match up for the Patriots. They managed to win the one game that matters the most but all 3 were nail biters and really it felt like coin flipping. Luckily they don't face this team and will not have to deal with these same issues again that I believe would still mostly be there if they were to play again.
At Jets week 12. The Jets seem to give the Patriots trouble particularly at home most years. It came down also to the pass defense having a bad game. Part of it though was letting big talented WRs out muscle our CBs and win jump balls. It is something that tends to give the Patriots trouble; when other teams see a 1 on 1 and throw it up and dare them to pick it off. Particularly Butler had a bad day. A missed 39 yard FG took some key points off the board and a lot of drops. On the whole though I think this day was more a combination of odd and bad things happening more than any particular problem with the Patriots team as well as the Jets giving the Pats a hard time which they tend to do sometimes. I don't see them able to do it this year though. They are even worse than they were last year and to expect those 50/50 balls to be completed and FGs missed and passes dropped and white missing the easy 2 point conversion... I don't see it being an issue again as games were so many things go wrong like this happens only once every few years for the Pats usually.
Also it is worth noting all 4 games were with Gronk hurt (or getting hurt). I think that is a factor united them all you can't overstate.
Generally on the whole games like the Jets and Ravens should not happen again this year as I doubt they let a return man put them in such a bad situation or they have as many bad plays and missed chances in one game again in back to back years.
The Key games are the Falcons and Seahawks. I think the Seahawks have to do partly with how hard the Seahawks are for the Patriots from a match up stand point and they are not on the schedule and hopefully with Gilmore they would not let a non-elite pocket passer like Wilson do that too them again.
As for the Falcons and the problems they gave the Patriots I think they learned a lot from that game and hopefully the line will be able to avoid such a bad showing again. The offense, if healthy, is unlikely to be so shut down for over half the game. Looking at the 2017 schedule I try to picture how this team with the changes made to it will deal with the teams on it schedule and I feel pretty confident besides a few games generally those same issues should not pop up again.
In my humble opinion you can cut the 2016 Patriots year in 2 pieces. The games with Brady and the games without him. Lets focus on the 15 games with him. In those 15 games the Patriots were pushed hard 4 times. The other games were in the bag comfortably in the 4th quarter. Those 4 games were Seattle (week 10), @NJY (week 12) Ravens (Week 14) and the Falcons (Superbowl). Besides those games it never felt like the Pats were close to losing at any other time.
The question is why these 4 games and not the others. What can we learn from them. Let's go a bit out of order.
Ravens week 14. The reason this game was close can be summed up in 2 words. Cyrus Jones. The mistakes made here are obvious and avoidable with botched STs plays turning a almost blowout into a nail biting in the mid 4th quarter. This doesn't really need to be broken down beyond that.
Falcons Super bowl - So much has been said about this game I feel going over it again would be a waste of time. Protecting Brady was of course one of the major issues. This may or may not improve on the year and of course is something to look at as to reasons the Pats could have a hard time vs some teams. I will leave it at that for this game.
These next 2 games will have more meat on the bone.
Seattle week 10. This was at home and the only game lost under Brady that year. There were many reasons this game was lost but if i had to name the main ones it would be these in order of importance. Poor pass defense, Inability to exploit a poor offensive line, losing the turnover battle 2-0 (the Edelman one was rare though). As for the first 2 I believe those could still be issues. As safe as Brady is with the ball he does tend to throw Picks against certain teams and Seattle is one (since 2012). I don't think that is avoidable. Also the Patriots don't have the personal to really exploit a team whose weakness is the offensive line this year so that is still an issue. As for the poor pass defense... It is my hope Gilmore can do something about it. That being said it is just the case with a mobile QB who can pass pretty well, a talented D that gets pressure and defends the pass. This team is just a hard match up for the Patriots. They managed to win the one game that matters the most but all 3 were nail biters and really it felt like coin flipping. Luckily they don't face this team and will not have to deal with these same issues again that I believe would still mostly be there if they were to play again.
At Jets week 12. The Jets seem to give the Patriots trouble particularly at home most years. It came down also to the pass defense having a bad game. Part of it though was letting big talented WRs out muscle our CBs and win jump balls. It is something that tends to give the Patriots trouble; when other teams see a 1 on 1 and throw it up and dare them to pick it off. Particularly Butler had a bad day. A missed 39 yard FG took some key points off the board and a lot of drops. On the whole though I think this day was more a combination of odd and bad things happening more than any particular problem with the Patriots team as well as the Jets giving the Pats a hard time which they tend to do sometimes. I don't see them able to do it this year though. They are even worse than they were last year and to expect those 50/50 balls to be completed and FGs missed and passes dropped and white missing the easy 2 point conversion... I don't see it being an issue again as games were so many things go wrong like this happens only once every few years for the Pats usually.
Also it is worth noting all 4 games were with Gronk hurt (or getting hurt). I think that is a factor united them all you can't overstate.
Generally on the whole games like the Jets and Ravens should not happen again this year as I doubt they let a return man put them in such a bad situation or they have as many bad plays and missed chances in one game again in back to back years.
The Key games are the Falcons and Seahawks. I think the Seahawks have to do partly with how hard the Seahawks are for the Patriots from a match up stand point and they are not on the schedule and hopefully with Gilmore they would not let a non-elite pocket passer like Wilson do that too them again.
As for the Falcons and the problems they gave the Patriots I think they learned a lot from that game and hopefully the line will be able to avoid such a bad showing again. The offense, if healthy, is unlikely to be so shut down for over half the game. Looking at the 2017 schedule I try to picture how this team with the changes made to it will deal with the teams on it schedule and I feel pretty confident besides a few games generally those same issues should not pop up again.
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