Where Is The Sweet Spot For Us To Draft An LT?

[VJCPatriot]

So we are taking for granted that there's viable trade partners for every scenario? Sorry, but I am driving the struggle bus on this one, bud.

Plan A, take Hunter, great. What if no one wants to deal? Then you run the risk of missing your guy at #38
Plan B, pray that Vegas, Jete, Carolina or New Orleans want to pay to move up. If not, then what?
Plan C, again, requires the offer to be accepted. This seems like the most likely, because it's overpayment, but what if no one wants to deal?

I am really uncomfortable planning on a trade. I think there's likely trade partners for Hunter or Carter, but I have my doubts if they are gone at #4. I think you could move way back and get paid, essentially, 50 cents on the dollar because it's a no brainer move for a late R1 team to underpay for the 4th pick, but the Pats gets screwed, miss out on a big pay day, and maybe miss their targeted player to boot. If they don't see the value in #4, why do the other teams? I agree with @Patsfan1645 that this year absolutely sucks to be at #4.

Unless they are overwhelmed with offers for #4, stay put, take your guy. If you opt for Hunter, Carter, Warren, Jeanty or whoever is at the top of their draft board, then you need to be prepared to overpay to get back into R1 for the LT run that will no doubt happen.

Teams go through a lot of trade scenarios and phone calls BEFORE the draft even starts.

Whoever is in control of the draft room must have contingency plans for every situation.

So if they know they want Hunter/Carter at #4 and one of them makes it to us that makes the call very easy.

If those two are gone, then they would have discussed with teams ahead of time what the possible compensation of a move down would be. They also should have held talks with teams at the bottom of 1st to explore the cost of a move up.

You're assuming complete incompetence by our front office, for them not to hold these preliminary talks. That should not be the case anymore this time around. The Mayo era is over.

 

[mgteich]

15-25 you're guaranteed one of the starters.

There were several OT's in the 15-25 range last year. How many were good starters?

 

[Wozzy]

If you think Campbell, Membou and Banks have similar grades then trade back to 6-10. One of these guys will be there.

If you think Mason Graham or someone else is too amazing to pass on, take them at 4 and take an offensive tackle in the second round. The good thing about drafting at the top of the order is there is always options there.

They should sign one or more free agent tackles now so they don’t have to reach and can draft the best player available.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

At 4



There was rumbling for a few days that they could have messed up the measurement at the combine for everybody.

 

[mgteich]

I suspect that if we are OK with any one of Membou, Campbell and Banks, we can still get ONE of them by say 8. If we have a clear choice, then 4th is the spot.

If we OK with one of Simmons, Conerly or Eserly, I would think that 15 or even 20 would work.

If we are Ok with others, then move down to the 25 would get us our choice.
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The issue for me is whether we have clear choices among the two groupings.
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Membou and Simmons seem to be the players moving up (from all the BS talk). I could see Membou gone by 6 and Simmons gone by 15.
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I think that there just aren't that many that we would expect to be a good starter for the next 5 years.

 

[JayNM]

Based on the context for this draft, I'd be a little bit disappointed in a #4 OT. Fine overall, but bit disappointed

If we can trade down once, I'm all for it, whoever is available

Just please no RB please

 

[BobDigital]

People are projecting Campbell, who many have as the top OT, projects better as a guard. Membu is another guy people believe may be the top LT in this draft (people are split). The issue is he played RT in college, so he will need to learn to do the opposite of everything he did. He is ALSO a guy some think would fit better at guard.

So the top 2 LTs in this draft we could pick at 4 already have question marks. No one else is debated as worth that pick from an OT perspective

Josh Simmons and Kelvin Banks are other potential first round OTs, but won't go as highly. Simmons may not even go in the first. Frankly this is not a good draft for absolute top tier OTs,,, but a good draft for guys with some question marks, who are a little raw or coming back from injury like Simmons. To me this is a draft where the best value for an OT would be between picks 20-40. So we should aim to get one with our second pick or if we trade down far enough. My favorite OT from what i've read is actually Simmons who may be the most naturally build OT of the top guys and will come with a discount due to his ACL injury, but will be able to play early next year and even potentially start week 1 if needed.

To me though the key issue is THIS IS NOT a draft were you draft an OT to start week 1. I just don't think that guy is there for this draft. Doesn't mean great OTs won't come out of this class.... but i don't think this class has those guys ready to play at a high level week 1 and protect the franchise.

 

[PatsFan2]

People are projecting Campbell, who many have as the top OT, projects better as a guard. Membu is another guy people believe may be the top LT in this draft (people are split). The issue is he played RT in college, so he will need to learn to do the opposite of everything he did. He is ALSO a guy some think would fit better at guard.

So the top 2 LTs in this draft we could pick at 4 already have question marks. No one else is debated as worth that pick from an OT perspective

Josh Simmons and Kelvin Banks are other potential first round OTs, but won't go as highly. Simmons may not even go in the first. Frankly this is not a good draft for absolute top tier OTs,,, but a good draft for guys with some question marks, who are a little raw or coming back from injury like Simmons. To me this is a draft where the best value for an OT would be between picks 20-40. So we should aim to get one with our second pick or if we trade down far enough. My favorite OT from what i've read is actually Simmons who may be the most naturally build OT of the top guys and will come with a discount due to his ACL injury, but will be able to play early next year and even potentially start week 1 if needed.

To me though the key issue is THIS IS NOT a draft were you draft an OT to start week 1. I just don't think that guy is there for this draft. Doesn't mean great OTs won't come out of this class.... but i don't think this class has those guys ready to play at a high level week 1 and protect the franchise.

Well we wouldn't be Drafting a Healthy Offensive Tackle to sit. That said: Josh Simmons intrigues if we double dip; sit him for the year and we are set at OT for years to come.

 

[mike_usagisan]

People are projecting Campbell, who many have as the top OT, projects better as a guard. Membu is another guy people believe may be the top LT in this draft (people are split). The issue is he played RT in college, so he will need to learn to do the opposite of everything he did. He is ALSO a guy some think would fit better at guard.

So the top 2 LTs in this draft we could pick at 4 already have question marks. No one else is debated as worth that pick from an OT perspective

Josh Simmons and Kelvin Banks are other potential first round OTs, but won't go as highly. Simmons may not even go in the first. Frankly this is not a good draft for absolute top tier OTs,,, but a good draft for guys with some question marks, who are a little raw or coming back from injury like Simmons. To me this is a draft where the best value for an OT would be between picks 20-40. So we should aim to get one with our second pick or if we trade down far enough. My favorite OT from what i've read is actually Simmons who may be the most naturally build OT of the top guys and will come with a discount due to his ACL injury, but will be able to play early next year and even potentially start week 1 if needed.

To me though the key issue is THIS IS NOT a draft were you draft an OT to start week 1. I just don't think that guy is there for this draft. Doesn't mean great OTs won't come out of this class.... but i don't think this class has those guys ready to play at a high level week 1 and protect the franchise.

Which is weird because they didn't bolster it with any kind of vet. I think the Pats may project one of the ones in the draft being a starter because otherwise the rest of their decisions don't make sense.

 

[Steve102]

Which is weird because they didn't bolster it with any kind of vet. I think the Pats may project one of the ones in the draft being a starter because otherwise the rest of their decisions don't make sense.

Scar says he can play. that's good enough for me.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Scar says he can play. that's good enough for me.

There's a report that the Pats like Campbell at a LT. I wouldn't overthink that.

 

[Clonamery]

There's a report that the Pats like Campbell at a LT. I wouldn't overthink that.

There's a report for just about every team scenario and player you can think of.

 

[PatsFan2]

Which is weird because they didn't bolster it with any kind of vet. I think the Pats may project one of the ones in the draft being a starter because otherwise the rest of their decisions don't make sense.

Membou or Campbell after a Trade down. I have no problem with Campbell if they like him for our Left Tackle. Just Trade down to get him same for Membou.

 

[mike_usagisan]

There's a report for just about every team scenario and player you can think of.

This is true. It came up from the combine when asked what the Patriots liked at 4. The report said the Pats thought Carter would be gone, but liked Hunter as a WR and/or a CB and Campbell as a LT.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Membou or Campbell after a Trade down. I have no problem with Campbell if they like him for our Left Tackle. Just Trade down to get him same for Membou.

If you trade down you risk missing out on Membou and Campbell. That's the deal with trading down. You get draft ammo but you lose control of who will be there when you select.

 

[Steve102]

This is true. It came up from the combine when asked what the Patriots liked at 4. The report said the Pats thought Carter would be gone, but liked Hunter as a WR and/or a CB and Campbell as a LT.

My "war room" draft board looks like this

Travis Hunter
Abdul Carter
Will Campbell
Mason Graham

Just cross them off as they get picked, draft the top guy there. I don't have a guy ranked 5th yet, but you know they do.

 

[PatsFan2]

If you trade down you risk missing out on Membou and Campbell. That's the deal with trading down. You get draft ammo but you lose control of who will be there when you select.

10 or 11 should net either plus we have Conerly and Ersery as back ups in Round 1 and 2.

 

[yukon cornelius]

campbell is the wildcard.......skillset & experience to play T (?), despite the arm length

membou, simmons, banks, ersery, & conerly all seem to project to T.....some of the others tend to be maybe tackle/maybe

depends on how they rank them.......simmons & banks early to mid teens? or there's a run on Ts and you miss out......if they have one of the big (4) in campbell, simmons, membou or banks in their top 10 players, take them at 4.......if they are lower than that, trade down and get what you can get 11-20 (assuming there's a trade to be made)

a lot depends on how THEY view the Ts

 

[Water Boy]

Here's the PFF OT big board rankings

6 Campbell
11 Membou
18 Simmons
20 Banks
29 Zabel
34 Connerly
60 Esery
74 Trapillo
76 Mbow
87 Savaiinea
90 Milum
92 Cam Williams
97 Charles Grant
98 Belton

Campbell, Membou potential picks at 4 (not ideal) or slight trade back.

Banks, Simmons trade back to mid round

Connerly, Esery - likely need a trade up into the 20s to get ahead of Texans and Chiefs

Trapillo - Early round 3

Belton or Grant - late round 3 or early 4.

 

[mike_usagisan]

10 or 11 should net either plus we have Conerly and Ersery as back ups in Round 1 and 2.

How sure are you that someone from 10 or 11 wants to trade up? Also we have no idea how the Psts have graded any of the tackle prospects. Just because one might be there, it might not be one we think can even play tackle.

I can see it going a lot of different ways, but I would put odds on us picking at 4.