What really happened in the second round?

[Ivan]

I do see what you're saying, I think. Let me try it like this:

If you had to pick a single factor to be the best indicator of a prospect's leaguewide draft value, it would have to be when he was drafted.

Yes, it's always possible for one team to rate (or need) a player wildly differently from the rest of the league. E.g., Alex Smith was the #1 overall pick in 2005, but if he hadn't gone #1 he likely would have entered freefall. And you could count on Al Davis for the occasional stunner, like kicker Sebastian Janikowski at #17 overall.

But by and large, the real-life commitment of draft capital by a real-life GM is the best indicator of how the league views a prospect. So it's a fair bet that out of 31 other teams, somebody else also saw Tavon Wilson as a 2nd-round value.

Yep. Unfortunately too many people who follow the draft confuse the mock draft projections of the draftniks as reality when in truth they are just projections, it is the draft itself that reveals what the real grades on the players are, so the people claiming he isn't a 2nd round caliber player when the Patriots staff scouted him extensively and gave him that grade are making a baseless argument. And as surprising as the pick was I don't believe the Patriots were the only team grading him that way, and we have seen similar instances of this in recent history, e.g.. Mankins and Vollmer.


Like pretty much everyone else here I wanted a number of other players at that pick, and i was bummed when they passed on Lavonte David, but I understand what they were thinking and hope they were right. What makes this argument really bizarre is that the people trashing the pick are claiming that those supporting it are just homers who would praise Belichick for "wiping his ass," when in fact not one person here has praised the pick as a great pick or heaped praise on Wilson, all we have done is withhold judgement on him, and apparently that isn't good enough for them because if you aren't trashing Wilson then you are a suck-up, and that's despite the fact that none of these people scouted Wilson and are basing their opinions solely on blurbs from Kiper and Rang and others.

 

[Off The Grid]

Yep. Unfortunately too many people who follow the draft confuse the mock draft projections of the draftniks as reality when in truth they are just projections, it is the draft itself that reveals what the real grades on the players are, so the people claiming he isn't a 2nd round caliber player when the Patriots staff scouted him extensively and gave him that grade are making a baseless argument. And as surprising as the pick was I don't believe the Patriots were the only team grading him that way, and we have seen similar instances of this in recent history, e.g.. Mankins and Vollmer.


Like pretty much everyone else here I wanted a number of other players at that pick, and i was bummed when they passed on Lavonte David, but I understand what they were thinking and hope they were right. What makes this argument really bizarre is that the people trashing the pick are claiming that those supporting it are just homers who would praise Belichick for "wiping his ass," when in fact not one person here has praised the pick as a great pick or heaped praise on Wilson, all we have done is withhold judgement on him, and apparently that isn't good enough for them because if you aren't trashing Wilson then you are a suck-up, and that's despite the fact that none of these people scouted Wilson and are basing their opinions solely on blurbs from Kiper and Rang and others.

Pure nonsense.

There's plenty of tape on Wilson.

And you know what??

It ain't that impressive.

Patriots CB/S No. 3 Tavon Wilson vs Michigan 2011 - YouTube

Patriots CB / S No. 3 Tavon Wilson vs ASU 2011 - YouTube

Patriots CB/S No. 3 Tavon Wilson vs Northwestern and Ohio State 2011 - YouTube

#3 in your Programs, Ladies and Gentlemen!!

He's the Contact-******ant one.

 

[Ivan]

Pure nonsense.

There's plenty of tape on Wilson.

And you know what??

It ain't that impressive.

Patriots CB/S No. 3 Tavon Wilson vs Michigan 2011 - YouTube

Patriots CB / S No. 3 Tavon Wilson vs ASU 2011 - YouTube

Patriots CB/S No. 3 Tavon Wilson vs Northwestern and Ohio State 2011 - YouTube

#3 in your Programs, Ladies and Gentlemen!!

He's the Contact-******ant one.

Although I respect your opinion OTG i'm not buying the idea that fans watching You Tube clips and reading Kiper know more about prospects than the team scouts who break down every play the prospect has ever been involved in, nor do I believe they have anywhere near the knowledge needed to actually evaluate the player. As I have said many times i'm perfectly fine with everyone who follows the draft coming up with their lists of who they like and don't like, what I don't buy is the claims they make about Belichick not knowing what he's doing and how they know better; I don't include you in that category of fan and I have been clear that my posts are directed at those claiming they know better, when in truth they don't know sh.t.. And, as i said in a previous post not one person here has lauded the Wilson pick as some great move or talked about how much they like him and all we have said is that the Patriots know what they are doing and that he deserves an opportunity to show what he can do without being labelled as "garbage," which has been done here. Over and over year after year we hear about supposed reaches where fans complain about players being taken too high when all they are basing their opinions on is pre draft projections by Kiper and Co. ,and if you really look at how many prospects they are way off on it is easily enough to demonstrate that they are just guessing. They aren't experts they just think they are.


If I were the one making the pick it would have been L. David, however I also know that if i were the one making the picks the Patriots would suck, and I'm not deluded enough to think otherwise. Unfortunately posters like Snake Eyes, Triumph, Fred From Dartmouth, and others actually think they know more and could do a better job than Belichick and his staff do, and that's just stupid.


I actually do like and appreciate all the information and efforts that you and mayo and others contribute on the draft but i don't respect the posters who serially trash Belichick and his staff and claim they know better, the truth is that they are deluded. Belichick and his staff have created the best franchise in football, and their record demonstrates that beyond question, and messageboard draftniks don't know better, no matter how much they insist that they do.

 

[Off The Grid]

Although I respect your opinion OTG i'm not buying the idea that fans watching You Tube clips and reading Kiper know more about prospects than the team scouts who break down every play the prospect has ever been involved in, nor do I believe they have anywhere near the knowledge needed to actually evaluate the player. As I have said many times i'm perfectly fine with everyone who follows the draft coming up with their lists of who they like and don't like, what I don't buy is the claims they make about Belichick not knowing what he's doing and how they know better; I don't include you in that category of fan and I have been clear that my posts are directed at those claiming they know better, when in truth they don't know sh.t.. And, as i said in a previous post not one person here has lauded the Wilson pick as some great move or talked about how much they like him and all we have said is that the Patriots know what they are doing and that he deserves an opportunity to show what he can do without being labelled as "garbage," which has been done here. Over and over year after year we hear about supposed reaches where fans complain about players being taken too high when all they are basing their opinions on is pre draft projections by Kiper and Co. ,and if you really look at how many prospects they are way off on it is easily enough to demonstrate that they are just guessing. They aren't experts they just think they are.


If I were the one making the pick it would have been L. David, however I also know that if i were the one making the picks the Patriots would suck, and I'm not deluded enough to think otherwise. Unfortunately posters like Snake Eyes, Triumph, Fred From Dartmouth, and others actually think they know more and could do a better job than Belichick and his staff do, and that's just stupid.


I actually do like and appreciate all the information and efforts that you and mayo and others contribute on the draft but i don't respect the posters who serially trash Belichick and his staff and claim they know better, the truth is that they are deluded. Belichick and his staff have created the best franchise in football, and their record demonstrates that beyond question, and messageboard draftniks don't know better, no matter how much they insist that they do.

All right, Brother Ivan...And..Thanks.

If you're gonna be courteous ~ and insightfull ~ enough to distinguish Brother Mayo, me, and the other Draft Lunatics from Kiper Parrotters ~ and I'm not saying anyone in particular is OF that ilk!! ~ then I have no choice but to withdraw my objection.

Indeed, perhaps I need to relearn to count to 10 and try to understand that more or less sweeping statements aren't necessarily intended to BE so sweeping.

To be sure: Those who gorge themselves on the sewage pumped by Kiper and their dubious Ilk and then ~ thus fortified ~ proceed to bash Bill based purely on that turgid excrement...are as stupid as they are LEGION.

Personally, I don't like the Wilson Pick at ALL ~ DESPITE the fact that Kiper the IDIOT happens to agree with me!!! ~ but I have been resigned to it for two weeks, and am fully prepared to give Brother Bill ~ if not the unfettered Faith that the IBWT fools dispense ~ the Benefit of the Doubt which he has most certainly EARNED.

You assert that you have been clear ~ presumably in previous posts ~ that your Defenestrations are aimed at the ~ how did you put it?? ~ "Serial Trashers"!!

~ and I have no reason to doubt the veracity of that assertion, Brother Ivan, as Your Credit Is Good. I apologize for my harsh rebuttal. And: Thanks.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Ah but the whole point of this forum is second guess the professionals. It would be so boring if we just agreed with the picks like sheep. And it is not too far-fetched to think that BB screwed up on Wilson; he has a track record of second and third round screwups. All teams screwup after the first round but we all expect better of BB.

Personally I think that the Patriots talked themselves into giving Wilson a third or fourth round grade. Then in the second round something did not go as planned; either a pre-arranged trade-down fell through or the guy they were waiting for was came off the board. Then there was some "cognitive dissonance" (see: I did not use the panic word) and they said to themselves "Well we have Wilson ranked at 3'd or 4'th ...might as well take him here because we do not have later picks..."

 

[mayoclinic]

It would be so boring if we just agreed with the picks like sheep.

And equally boring to pile on bashing every pick that goes against the grain.

 

[Ivan]

Ah but the whole point of this forum is second guess the professionals. It would be so boring if we just agreed with the picks like sheep.

I thought the point was to talk football, but that explains why you always play the contrarian as you apparently believe that's the purpose of the site. The problem for you is that you are trying to play contrarian against the best franchise in the league and possibly in all of professional sports. When the Belichick era is over it will go down as the greatest run of success any pro football team has ever had, and you will still be standing there with your d.ck in your hand trying to knock it and looking stupid. And while the haters are screaming that the Patriots haven't won the big one in 7 years they will be completely missing the fact that Belichick has done something during that time that no coach has ever pulled off, at least to my knowledge, he will have entirely rebuilt a football team around a franchise QB without ever dropping off in play. If Faulk retires the Patriots will have put 52 new players around Brady while staying in contention every season. That simply doesn't happen in the NFL, and it is an incredible achievement. If they win another SB it may well be the first time in NFL history that a team has completely rebuilt a roster around one player and won another SB, and even then the haters will be upset and wondering why they didn't win 2 Super Bowls in one season.

 

[Ivan]

Personally I think that the Patriots talked themselves into giving Wilson a third or fourth round grade. Then in the second round something did not go as planned; either a pre-arranged trade-down fell through or the guy they were waiting for was came off the board. Then there was some "cognitive dissonance" (see: I did not use the panic word) and they said to themselves "Well we have Wilson ranked at 3'd or 4'th ...might as well take him here because we do not have later picks..."

I'm sure you are right, Belichick has never put any stock in VALUE so I'm sure he just went ahead and took a guy he knew was fifth round material in the 2nd just for the hell of it. Hell, he knew he had a couple more picks coming up but if things broke right he could take the guy he had pegged as a 7th at #62, and then take a player he figured would be available as UDFA in the 3rd. That's how he rolls, blindly and stupidly, just as you described.

 

[patchick]

OK, this thread is deteriorating fast...let me propose a few tenets:

- Being surprised and frustrated at the Wilson pick, given that players who were generally much more highly regarded were available at #48, doesn't make you a "hater" or unaware of the Patriots' success;

- Being optimistic about the Wilson pick, given the Pats' scouting organization and track record and the fact that he was supposedly a sleeper/late riser, doesn't make you a "blind homer";

- The fact that the Patriots drafted Wilson does not, in itself, make him the right pick -- it's totally legitimate to say what you wish they had done instead;

- The fact that we as fans think a move didn't make sense in no way suggests that the Patriots "panicked" or were unprepared for the pick;

- Continuing to argue either extreme, or assuming that anyone who disagrees with you must hold such an extreme position, will get threads shut down out of sheer tedium.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I thought the point was to talk football, but that explains why you always play the contrarian as you apparently believe that's the purpose of the site. ...

Ha! I am a Pollyanna compared to the DBs on the radio! Save your bile for Felger and Gaspar and Borges and the WEEI nabobs of negativity. I'll bet that after the three game run by the Sox this weekend that tomorrow all WEEI sourpusses will be doing is complaining about Youkie and trying to figure out schemes to trade him away for nothing....

I remember you guys roasting me when I suggested that Ty Warren should have done the offseason with the Patriots instead of lounging around campus. How's that degrees working for you Ty? And then I was practically banned (all my threads were nuked) when I had the temerity to suggest a Cut Pool for Albert Haynesworth. I predicted that he would only last alf the season. So is this the negativity that is so objectionable?

 

[Ivan]

Ha! I am a Pollyanna compared to the DBs on the radio! Save your bile for Felger and Gaspar and Borges and the WEEI nabobs of negativity.

Fred, first you say the purpose of the board is to challenge the professionals, then you take issue with being called a contrarian, which is it?

The perception that you are chronically negative about an incredibly successful team is one you created, not me, so go have a heart to heart with yourself about that in front of your mirror. In the meantime realize that you actually started a thread claiming that Belichick and the Patriots "panicked" during the draft, which is pretty ludicrous, so don't be surprised when people give it back to you about such a claim.



BTW-Here's what really happened in round 2, the Patriots took a player Patriot fans knew nothing about with multiple binkies still on the board, and it pissed off Patriot fans, so having a great draft got lost in the shuffle because some fans don't like the 2nd rounder.

 

[captain stone]

But by and large, the real-life commitment of draft capital by a real-life GM is the best indicator of how the league views a prospect. So it's a fair bet that out of 31 other teams, somebody else also saw Tavon Wilson as a 2nd-round value.

I'll take that imaginary bet, and raise you a What If Bill had drafted Cliff Avril & Connor Barwin.

 

[mayoclinic]

OK, this thread is deteriorating fast...let me propose a few tenets:

- Being surprised and frustrated at the Wilson pick, given that players who were generally much more highly regarded were available at #48, doesn't make you a "hater" or unaware of the Patriots' success;

- Being optimistic about the Wilson pick, given the Pats' scouting organization and track record and the fact that he was supposedly a sleeper/late riser, doesn't make you a "blind homer";

- The fact that the Patriots drafted Wilson does not, in itself, make him the right pick -- it's totally legitimate to say what you wish they had done instead;

- The fact that we as fans think a move didn't make sense in no way suggests that the Patriots "panicked" or were unprepared for the pick;

- Continuing to argue either extreme, or assuming that anyone who disagrees with you must hold such an extreme position, will get threads shut down out of sheer tedium.

But after 9 pages of posts doing all of the above, do you really think there's anything left to be said that adds anything of substance to the conversation?

 

[captain stone]

The problem for you is that you are trying to play contrarian against the best franchise in the league and possibly in all of professional sports. When the Belichick era is over it will go down as the greatest run of success any pro football team has ever had...

Vince Lombardi's Packers, Chuck Noll's Steelers & Bill Walsh's 49ers all say Hello.

 

[Ivan]

Vince Lombardi's Packers, Chuck Noll's Steelers & Bill Walsh's 49ers all say Hello.

Last I knew the Belichick era wasn't over.

 

[Ivan]

Vince Lombardi's Packers, Chuck Noll's Steelers & Bill Walsh's 49ers all say Hello.

Wow, never thought of it that way. Given the company you put him in it is no wonder you guys are so upset, he sucks. Maybe you, Fred, and Triumph can take over and right the ship?

I'll be thinking of you guys when they hoist that next Lombardi.

 

[patchick]

But after 9 pages of posts doing all of the above, do you really think there's anything left to be said that adds anything of substance to the conversation?

you may say I'm a dreamer...

 

[The Scrizz]

Personally I think that the Patriots talked themselves into giving Wilson a third or fourth round grade. Then in the second round something did not go as planned; either a pre-arranged trade-down fell through or the guy they were waiting for was came off the board. Then there was some "cognitive dissonance" (see: I did not use the panic word) and they said to themselves "Well we have Wilson ranked at 3'd or 4'th ...might as well take him here because we do not have later picks..."

Okay, I will accept that people don't like the pick, I will gladly acknowledge that BB is fallible like everybody else and has made plenty of bad picks, trades, signings, just like everybody else. It is the nature of the beast.

But the theory being placed forth here is maybe the stupidest ******* thing I've read on this board, which is saying something.

First, how exactly do they 'talk themselves into giving him a 3rd or 4th round grade'? They have a thorough, well-established process for scouting and grading players and on Wilson they just said screw-it, put him in the 3rd. Yeah that's likely.

Second, call it panic, cognitive dissonance of whatever phrase you choose to mean that you are smarter than BB, but after ignoring their own system to give the guy a 3rd round grade to begin with, he then got so flustered 16 picks into the 2nd round, that he just said screw-it again and took him with the 48th. One of the most prepared professionals in their field got confused and just blurted out Wilson. And the whole rest of the scouting, evaluation, and Front Office team just nodded their heads because there is never any disagreement in a team's war room.

The best part is that all of these morons were under such pressure that they forgot that they had another 2nd round pick with which to draft the guy that they had fooled themselves into over-grading to begin with. And coincidentally they managed to trade that pick into the 3rd round which is exactly where they had mistakenly graded him to begin with.

The very fact that they took him with #48 when they had another 2nd round pick later is PROOF that they believed they had to draft him there if they wanted him. They have a board with names on it and when it comes time to pick they pick the guy on the board. To claim they skipped down to a 3rd or 4th rounder is hysterical.

All of this is nothing more than an attempt to explain why we should trust some clown from Dartmouth over one of the greatest football minds of our time. Disagree with the pick, fine, but save the friggin fairy tales for bedtime when you dream about how much smarter you are than the rest of us.

The best part is the irony of one of the biggest 'why do they always trade down?' whiners complaining that they didn't trade down. That is too rich.

Just give it up.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Oh heck; let's just wait and see how Wilson does. If he is going to be a star then it should not take too long to find out.

 

[mayoclinic]

you may say I'm a dreamer...

You should make it into a speech:

"I have a dream: That being surprised and frustrated at the Wilson pick, given that players who were generally much more highly regarded were available at #48, doesn't automatically make you a "hater". That being optimistic about the Wilson pick given the Pats' scouting organization and track record and the fact that he was supposedly a sleeper/late riser, doesn't make you a "blind homer". I have a dream that someday it will be totally legitimate to say what you wish the Pats had done instead, without in any way suggesting that the Patriots "panicked" or were unprepared for the pick. I have a dream that people on both sides of the fence can rise up and have substantive discussion about the Wilson pick without assuming that anyone who disagrees with them must hold such an extreme position. Call me naive, Brothers and Sisters, but I have a dream that threads of this sort will not degenerate into sheer tedium."

You're a writer. Work with it.