What If - super bowl run edition

[ivanvamp]

The Patriots in the TB/BB era played 18 seasons, not counting 2000 and 2008 when Brady was a 4th string rookie and then hurt for the entire year, respectively. Of those 18 seasons:

- 6 resulted in SB championships and 12.7 regular season wins on average
- 3 resulted in SB losses and 14.0 regular season wins on average
- 4 resulted in AFCCG losses and 12.0 regular season wins on average
- 2 resulted in AFC divisional round losses and 12.0 regular season wins on average
- 2 resulted in AFC wild card round losses and 11.0 regular season wins on average
- 1 resulted in missing the playoffs and a 9 win season

So of those 6 SB championships...which one(s) was most likely to NOT happen? In other words, which one(s) was the one(s) that if the entire season/post-season/Super Bowl was to be played out again, was least likely to result in a Pats' SB win? (beating Pitt in the 2001 playoffs on 2 special teams TD was....fortunate, to say the least, for example)

Of those 3 SB losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

Of those 4 AFCCG losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

I'm guessing that the five seasons where they lost prior to the AFCCG were all unlikely to result in a SB championship, except maybe for 2010 (the Pats were GOOD that year).

*By the way, look at that 18 year run again. Holy god that's just out of control incredible. Man are we Pats' fans lucky.

 

[Pape]

XXXVI easily... New quarterback, snow for the Raiders game... The tuck rule being call again... Vinateri making two fg in the snowy conditions, the winner in ot... The exceptional special teams play in Pittsburgh... Bru getting the turnover on a botched snap... Bledsoe actually making the td pass to Patten... Tebucky Jones actually intercepting slash... Slowing the greatest show on turf... Warner hurting his thumb on vrabels helmet...

By 2003 Brady was in full command of his game...

That's why 36 is the best of the lot ... Because it was the most improbable

 

[Guts]

36 was the most improbable. We were 14 points underdogs that game and I believe if the game were to be played 10 times we would lose 6 out of 10 times or even more.


42 is of course the Superbowl we should have won and had the greatest team ever

 

[sb1]

So of those 6 SB championships...which one(s) was most likely to NOT happen? In other words, which one(s) was the one(s) that if the entire season/post-season/Super Bowl was to be played out again, was least likely to result in a Pats' SB win? (beating Pitt in the 2001 playoffs on 2 special teams TD was....fortunate, to say the least, for example)

Yeah I'd say that one easily. Very unlikely the same Patriots team runs through the same gauntlet and has the exact same things go their way.

Of those 3 SB losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

Was tempted to go with 2007 but I think a second Giants SB do-over would be very winnable. I doubt Brady has another intentional grounding flagged (it shouldn't have been in the first place) and Welker will catch that pass to clinch it. Brady carried that team that year. No idea how the 2011 Giants beat us (twice!). Look at their stats. 25th ranked scoring defense ,the third worst pass defense in the league and the worst run offense in the league which happened to gash us in the Super Bowl. SMH. That wouldn't happen again.

Of those 4 AFCCG losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

2006 easily. I'm sure they could handle Rex Grossman. Also a decent chance they beat Cam in 2015.

I'm guessing that the five seasons where they lost prior to the AFCCG were all unlikely to result in a SB championship, except maybe for 2010 (the Pats were GOOD that year).

Yep 2010. Still can't explain that one. They were not a Super Bowl caliber team in 2002, 2005, 2009, or 2019.

 

[signbabybrady]

The next one

 

[n6249c]

The Patriots in the TB/BB era played 18 seasons, not counting 2000 and 2008 when Brady was a 4th string rookie and then hurt for the entire year, respectively. Of those 18 seasons:

- 6 resulted in SB championships and 12.7 regular season wins on average
- 3 resulted in SB losses and 14.0 regular season wins on average
- 4 resulted in AFCCG losses and 12.0 regular season wins on average
…

*By the way, look at that 18 year run again. Holy god that's just out of control incredible. Man are we Pats' fans lucky.

Amen. Incredible! A Super Bowl appearance every other year for almost two decades, 9 times in 18 years. AFCCG appearances in 13 out of those 18 years. In a league designed for parity.

No wonder almost all fans of the rest of the NFL hate the Patriots. And really really hate what seems to be happening with Mac Jones. Let’s hope lightening strikes twice!

 

[TheRainMaker]

So of those 6 SB championships...which one(s) was most likely to NOT happen? In other words, which one(s) was the one(s) that if the entire season/post-season/Super Bowl was to be played out again, was least likely to result in a Pats' SB win? (beating Pitt in the 2001 playoffs on 2 special teams TD was....fortunate, to say the least, for example)

2001. If there were clear skies in the Divisional round, the Raiders run them off the field like they did in 2002.

Of those 3 SB losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

All of them. They had no business losing any of those games. But picking one, I'll go with 2007 as they come up with a better game plan offensively. and Brady's ankle is better. Eli tried desperately to lose the game on about 5 or so occasions, but the Pats could only capitalize on one INT. The defense was absolutely horrendous given Eli wanted that game to end. Runner up is Giants 2011. Horrendous game management up 17-9. 2017 was Bill's worst defensive game plan against a backup QB. Just pathetic.

Of those 4 AFCCG losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

This is a tough question. I want to say 2006, but Manning found their massive weakness at LB and would've thrown it again to his TE's repeatedly as he did in the 2nd half. 2012, I think they would've lost to the 49ers again. They had cheat code LB's in Willis and Bowman that would've suffocated the middle of the field. If you were lucky to get past their LB's, their S's would knock you out. They could rush 3 and get to the QB. 2015, they may have lost to the Panthers given they lost to them again at home 2 years later with a healthy team. I'll go with 2006 that they win the shootout against the Colts as the Bears were an inferior NFC opponent.

I'm guessing that the five seasons where they lost prior to the AFCCG were all unlikely to result in a SB championship, except maybe for 2010 (the Pats were GOOD that year).

2005 they would've beaten Pittsburgh again as they did in the regular season. Denver was just their Daddy's and there was no way avoiding them even if the Pats didn't give away the #3 seed. As much as I don't think their 2010 team was very good despite their record, they would've whooped the Steelers like they did in the regular season in the AFCCG. GB is a different story as this would be the first time Bill plays Rodgers. It would've been a high scoring game.

 

[crawhammer]

The Patriots in the TB/BB era played 18 seasons, not counting 2000 and 2008 when Brady was a 4th string rookie and then hurt for the entire year, respectively. Of those 18 seasons:

- 6 resulted in SB championships and 12.7 regular season wins on average
- 3 resulted in SB losses and 14.0 regular season wins on average
- 4 resulted in AFCCG losses and 12.0 regular season wins on average
- 2 resulted in AFC divisional round losses and 12.0 regular season wins on average
- 2 resulted in AFC wild card round losses and 11.0 regular season wins on average
- 1 resulted in missing the playoffs and a 9 win season

So of those 6 SB championships...which one(s) was most likely to NOT happen?

The first one for sure. Firstly, Bledsoe has to get knocked out of action and Brady needs to have an immediate impact that warrants staying with him as the starter over a $100 million dollar player. Then you go from 5-13 to 14-3 with a Super Bowl win against a better team... getting there with the aid of the tuck rule, probably the greatest FG made in the history of the league, and surviving a reappearance of Bledsoe.

Of those 3 SB losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

SB 52... firstly if Butler starts/plays on defense then they win the game. Secondly, they got torched by a backup quarterback (in part because of the first thing). Thirdly, how many games are you going to lose with your quarterback going off for 500 yards?

Of those 4 AFCCG losses...which one(s) was most likely to result in a Pats' SB title, if played all over again?

A 21-6 halftime lead against the Colts and a choker like Peyton manning should have been a highly winnable game. 34 points by your offense on the road in the postseason also should be enough for a win. They certainly would have beaten the Rex Grossman led Bears in the SB.

 

[Wax Frog]

Let’s hope lightening strikes twice!

 

[Nehalem]

SB 52... firstly if Butler starts/plays on defense then they win the game. Secondly, they got torched by a backup quarterback (in part because of the first thing). Thirdly, how many games are you going to lose with your quarterback going off for 500 yards?

Goes off for 500 yards after losing his #1 WR

Not to mention if it involves a redo of the whole season then that probably means to injured Edelman either

I think the better question is can we have a universe where Josh Gordon avoids drugs and AB misplaces his phone in 2019?

 

[1960Pats]

All the losses blow, of course 2007 was the worst but the 2011 loss to the Giants was next because it was the most winnable game. The Giants had a piss-poor run defense but the Pats decided to go pass happy.

 

[Hyped]

2000: OK, we sucked....

2002: Leonard Meyers allows a gimme interception go through his hands. If that doesn't happen, we make the playoffs.

2005: If they called touchback in the end zone when Ben Watson made that incredible play jarring the ball loose from behind....if so...we are on the 20 yard line, down 6-10 in Denver...late in the 3rd. We could have hosted the Steelers for the AFC title game at home the next week....

2006: If we convert a 3rd and a 4 late in Indy... BUT I'll admit that we probably shouldn't have gotten out of San Diego alive the week before.

2007: Helmet catch and all of those non-holding calls on the Giants OL.

2008: Brett Favre 3rd and long in OT....

2009: OK, we sucked...but I believe losing Welker in Houston on the final week played a big part in us getting blown out...that and just inexplicably opening a big hole for Ray Rice to score the opening TD.

2010: Pat Chung's fake punt call. That Jets D was solid...and we couldn't afford to fall behind like that...it took us the entire 3rd quarter to drive for a TD on that defense.

2011: Manningham catch...again because Chung cheated towards the middle of the field...Chung 1.0 wasn't my favorite player until he became Chung 2.0 after going to Philly. Also, Gronk's ankle.

2012: Gronk's injury in the Houston game before the AFC title game. And we also led that game at half time. Late in the game...trailing 13-21...Ridley gets knocked out by Pollard and fumbled...that was the game right there.

2013: No Gronk...and we get killed in Denver. Also, old friend Wes Welker took out Aquib Talib.

2015: Gostkowski misses a PAT.

2017: Man, this one hurt....so many things....I really thought we were going to win when we were driving prior to the strip sack by Graham.

2019: Losing to Miami in the final week....SMH! Could have gotten a BYE. Oh...Gronk also retired that year too.

Yup, made a case for us winning 20 straight Superbowls if we just fix about 15-16 plays, LOL!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

2000: OK, we sucked....

2002: Leonard Meyers allows a gimme interception go through his hands. If that doesn't happen, we make the playoffs.

2005: If they called touchback in the end zone when Ben Watson made that incredible play jarring the ball loose from behind....if so...we are on the 20 yard line, down 6-10 in Denver...late in the 3rd. We could have hosted the Steelers for the AFC title game at home the next week....

2006: If we convert a 3rd and a 4 late in Indy... BUT I'll admit that we probably shouldn't have gotten out of San Diego alive the week before.

2007: Helmet catch and all of those non-holding calls on the Giants OL.

2008: Brett Favre 3rd and long in OT....

2009: OK, we sucked...but I believe losing Welker in Houston on the final week played a big part in us getting blown out...that and just inexplicably opening a big hole for Ray Rice to score the opening TD.

2010: Pat Chung's fake punt call. That Jets D was solid...and we couldn't afford to fall behind like that...it took us the entire 3rd quarter to drive for a TD on that defense.

2011: Manningham catch...again because Chung cheated towards the middle of the field...Chung 1.0 wasn't my favorite player until he became Chung 2.0 after going to Philly. Also, Gronk's ankle.

2012: Gronk's injury in the Houston game before the AFC title game. And we also led that game at half time. Late in the game...trailing 13-21...Ridley gets knocked out by Pollard and fumbled...that was the game right there.

2013: No Gronk...and we get killed in Denver. Also, old friend Wes Welker took out Aquib Talib.

2015: Gostkowski misses a PAT.

2017: Man, this one hurt....so many things....I really thought we were going to win when we were driving prior to the strip sack by Graham.

2019: Losing to Miami in the final week....SMH! Could have gotten a BYE. Oh...Gronk also retired that year too.

Yup, made a case for us winning 20 straight Superbowls if we just fix about 15-16 plays, LOL!

This is also why I think people tend to overrate Super Bowl winning teams, as though they were constructed perfectly while any team that came up short had some fatal flaw. Hence we get stupid takes like "we didn't win a Super Bowl with Randy Moss, so we don't need a great receiver!"

In reality, a lot of the teams that fell short were still better overall teams than a few of the teams that won.

Just look at the the teams that won and the good fortune they had:

2001: Obviously we have the Tuck Rule which gave the team an extra life, and as good an example as you'll find. While the Pats had a great gameplan against the Rams, I think we can all agree we're glad the game didn't go on for an extra few minutes because the Rams were starting to throttle us.

2003: Not sure if anyone remembers, but Drew Bennett dropped that 4th and 12 pass in the AFCDG against the Titans with the game on the line. In the Super Bowl, obviously it was a crazy game and the Patriots got the ball last after the Panthers scored with ease to tie it.

2014: Trailed 28-14 and appeared to be dead to the Ravens before an awesome comeback involving that extra lineman/tight end stuff. Super Bowl 49, 10 point deficit and the Butler interception.

2016: 28-3

2018: Dee Ford jumps offsides to negate Brady's game losing interception. Multiple do or die plays by the Patriots in the waning minutes. Super Bowl very close, team fortunate Goff threw a duck to a wide open Cooks in the third quarter.

All of these teams, except for maybe 2004, faced some really steep odds and were fortunate to win but weren't really built to be so dominant they were invincible. It just worked out that way. A lot of great teams over the years, some got the bounces, the health, the key play, while others didn't.

 

[Ian]

2006: If we convert a 3rd and a 4 late in Indy... BUT I'll admit that we probably shouldn't have gotten out of San Diego alive the week before.

Just mentioned this in another thread, but if that entire team didn't have the flu, I think that game would have turned out differently and they would have absolutely destroyed Chicago. Needless to say, that one still irritates me.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

So of those 6 SB championships...which one(s) was most likely to NOT happen? In other words, which one(s) was the one(s) that if the entire season/post-season/Super Bowl was to be played out again, was least likely to result in a Pats' SB win? (beating Pitt in the 2001 playoffs on 2 special teams TD was....fortunate, to say the least, for example)

'01 and it's not close.

A dozen amazing things happened for that team. David Patten falls unconscious with his leg out of bounds in Buffalo, nullifying a fumble.

The '88 team likewise, had veterans with playoff and Super Bowl experience, and good young talent. With Flutie, they could (and did) beat anybody. Without Doug, they were putrid.

The '01 team, with Brady, went all the way. Without Tom, they would have been lucky to make .500.

 

[Ian]

'01 and it's not close.

A dozen amazing things happened for that team. David Patten falls unconscious with his leg out of bounds in Buffalo, nullifying a fumble.

Good memory. I completely forgot about that play

 

[mgcolby]

WTF did I just watch? And why the f*** did I click play?

I need to do some self reflecting about my decisions in life.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

WTF did I just watch? And why the f*** did I click play?

I need to do some self reflecting about my decisions in life.

Is that really Drew Bledsoe?

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I'd say our title in '22 is pretty unlikely, if you ignore Jones' progress as a rookie.

Wait, this can't be included in the 'TB/BB' era...or can it? I mean, Tom's still playing. Just not for us.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

WTF did I just watch? And why the f*** did I click play?

I need to do some self reflecting about my decisions in life.

If I had a nickel for every time I said that...