What if Mac Jones and Jaylen Waddle are available at 15?

[lancerman]

And yet is there another team that has had more "success" developing QBs where success is defined by the player having post Patriots longevity in the league ?

Cassel 107 games, Hoyer 70 games, JG 48 games, Brissett 49 games, even Mallett stuck around for a while played in 21 games and started 8.

It is clear that the players themselves had -- or still have -- flaws that prevent them from being a bone fida starter. But what they absorbed here on their way through seemingly gave them a good fundamental basis to build upon and keep finding work. Who else in the league really can say that about their organization ?

Exactly one of those guys is considered a viable franchise QB and most people think his real is angling to move on. Hoyer was a disaster when he was a starter, Cassel had one good season, Brissett was an emergency situation for his team and Jimmy can’t stay on the field. In most cases they got their spots because we made them look good in small sample sizes and Patriots mystique compelled franchises to give them a shot

 

[moosekill]

To accurately come up with the odds you have to know how many qb's are actually drafted in each round.

 

[moosekill]

But I would certainly say, if you want to draft a starting quality qb, it makes much more sense to draft him as high as possible in the draft.

 

[lancerman]

To accurately come up with the odds you have to know how many qb's are actually drafted in each round.

I posted it once before, but after the top half of the first round, you have about a 60% chance of the QB working out and then less than 50% in the second and then it’s basically a fluke every round after that where you might get lucky every 3 drafts.

You are better off doing with the Cardinals did and picking QB with your first rounder in consecutive years than you are with playing for value. Assuming it’s a position of need. If you have a QB like Brady and you want to take a gamble on developing a future guy, then maybe do it. But no way is it the best course of action for a team that needs their QB.

 

[BTTA]

YOUR PLAN
Pick a QB later, with the expectation that he has a 25% chance of "becoming a good NFL starter.
====================
As the owner, I would consider firing the GM who had such an approach. Your plan has us having a more than75% chance of starting Cam or Stidham, depending on how long it take the later pick from becoming a starter.

LOL, yeah, I should be fired as a GM before I'm even hired.
I think the Pats have a 75% chance of starting Cam or Stidham (or a vet signing or traded for) even if they pick in the top 5.
But whatever. It doesn't really matter that much. The ride will be fun regardless.

 

[BTTA]

Just for exercise, here are the current starting NFL QBs and where they were drafted

BUF - Josh Allen (1st round)
MIA - Tua Tagovailoa (1st round)
NE - Cam Newton (1st round)
NYJ - Sam Darnold (1st round)

BAL - Lamar Jackson (1st round)
CIN - Joe Burrows (1st round)
CLE - Baker Mayfield (1st round)
PIT - Ben Roethlisberger (1st round)

HOU - Deshaun Watson (1st round)
IND - Carson Wentz (1st round)
JAX - Gardner Minshew (6th round)
TEN - Ryan Tannehill (1st round)

DEN - Drew Lock (2nd round)
KC - Patrick Mahomes (1st round)
LAC - Justin Herbert (1st round)
LV - Derek Carr (2nd round)

DAL - Dak Prescott (4th round)
NYG - Daniel Jones (1st round)
PHI - Jalen Hurts (2nd round)
WAS - Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th round)

CHI - Andy Dalton (2nd round)
DET - Jared Goff (1st round)
GB - Aaron Rodgers (1st round)
MIN - Kirk Cousins (4th round)

ATL - Matt Ryan (1st round)
CAR - Teddy Bridgewater (1st round)
NO - Jameis Winston (1st round)
TB - Tom Brady (6th round)

ARI - Kyler Murray (1st round)
LAR - Matthew Stafford (1st round)
SEA - Russell Wilson (3rd round)
SF - Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd round)

And that’s while considering that the Jaguars are almost certainly getting their own first rounder in Trevor Lawrence, so we’ll be adding him to that list soon. But yeah it’s interesting to see the majority of current starting quarterbacks have a first round pedigree. Guys like Tom Brady are a special exception.

On the surface this is compelling evidence.

But of what, exactly? Perhaps it is because talent is richer in the first round. Or, it could be that teams spend more developmental energy, and have more patience, for QB's they've drafter higher. We can't know the answer to this, because a level-playing field test can't be done.

All the certainty expressed in this thread has more to do with anxiety about future unhappiness from Patriot losses, than it does objective analysis.

And if it can't be light-hearted and fun, what's the point? I've got enough stuff in my life that's difficult and anxiety inducing that I can't control.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Mac Jones ran a 4.79 second 40 yard dash at his Pro Day today. That's faster than Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Sam Darnold. Josh Allen ran a 4.75, for comparison.

He also checked in with a 32 inch vertical. Which was higher than Mahomes, Baker & Darnold.

Not bad...

 

[Nunchucks]

Mac Jones ran a 4.79 second 40 yard dash at his Pro Day today. That's faster than Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Sam Darnold. Josh Allen ran a 4.75, for comparison.

He also checked in with a 32 inch vertical. Which was higher than Mahomes, Baker & Darnold.

Not bad...

Jones is starting to look like. Good pick, not sure he will be available. They will have to trade up.

 

[Lansdowne]

On the surface this is compelling evidence.

But of what, exactly? Perhaps it is because talent is richer in the first round. Or, it could be that teams spend more developmental energy, and have more patience, for QB's they've drafter higher. We can't know the answer to this, because a level-playing field test can't be done.

All the certainty expressed in this thread has more to do with anxiety about future unhappiness from Patriot losses, than it does objective analysis.

And if it can't be light-hearted and fun, what's the point? I've got enough stuff in my life that's difficult and anxiety inducing that I can't control.

Yeah I think it’s that quarterbacks with a first round pedigree get more chances to prove themselves. That list is littered with guys who would be worth multiple firsts today (Mahomes), guys who used to play like a 1st rounder (Newton), and guys who it’s still too early to tell (Tua). 14 of those listed are still with the teams that originally drafted them. Teams are more willing to try to unlock that potential that scouts saw that made those quarterbacks go first round. It often signals a commitment by the franchise to 3-4 years. The Bears tried for four years to justify trading up for Trubisky and picking him over the likes of Mahomes and Watson, and trying to gain a net positive from what really was a sunk cost.

 

[mgteich]

IMO, someone will "take a chance" on ALL of the top 5 quarterbacks by pick 9.

Curiously, if the patriots get Lance early, Jones COULD be the one available after the top 10.

 

[luuked]

Exactly one of those guys is considered a viable franchise QB and most people think his real is angling to move on. Hoyer was a disaster when he was a starter, Cassel had one good season, Brissett was an emergency situation for his team and Jimmy can’t stay on the field. In most cases they got their spots because we made them look good in small sample sizes and Patriots mystique compelled franchises to give them a shot

Another person who doesn't get the point. Nobody cares if only one was a franchise guy that is besides the point. They still made a nice living in the NFL and it was not because of the mystique of the Patriots. Unless you think someone like Ozzy Newsome wasn't able to see through the smoke and got fooled into taking on Mallett.

They found work because all of them got a very solid foundation learning a lot from out coaching staff and from the general work ethic in the Patriots locker room. That doesn't mean we can turn **** to gold or pump out franchise players. But it means that we have a pretty solid developmental environment which can act as an multiplier (to a certain extend) on the abilities of a QB.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Lansdowne]

I’ve been thinking about it more and more and starting to have the feeling that Lance may end up being the 5th QB drafted when it comes time for everyone to pick.

Lance just turned 20. He has one full season of tape (2019) in three years of college. Has all the great physical tools you want from a modern day NFL quarterback, except experience. He’s the most green of the top 5 QB prospects. Whoever takes him can’t rely on him to have starts in 2021, it would have to be a redshirt year for him. Now IF the Pats were to get him, I’d imagine they’d still need a backup for Cam. Could trade for Mariota now that his contract is more affordable. But Lance would need to be no higher than third on the depth chart. Highly doubt he’s NFL ready this season.

That in mind, teams in the market for the top QB prospects are likely to want someone who can be put in to start at a moment’s notice, whether it’s Week 1 or after. Fields and Jones seem like safer bets who still possess great upside (I’d consider Fields higher ceiling, lower floor and Jones lower ceiling, higher floor). I consider Lance the highest ceiling of those three but also the lowest floor.

I think the Pats would draft Jones before they draft Lance or maybe even Fields. Heck, Jones might even be the third QB off the board after Lawrence and Wilson (and I would be shocked if those two aren’t the first two picks in the draft). I’m sure Saban is in Belichick’s ear regarding Jones.

 

[Ring 6]

You know that's not what I'm saying. I'm just playing odds. I don't want to give up massive draft capital to take a QB that's a 40% chance at best. I think by taking two later on, there's a 25% chance one of them will become a good NFL starter, and we get to shore up other positions. You can quibble with me on numbers, of course.

Then you’ll never get a QB

 

[Lansdowne]

Andy: Care to comment on what you disagree with? I said what I said as someone who actually wants the Pats to go after Trey Lance. But do you honestly think Bill Belichick would be comfortable with Lance as the immediate backup to Cam? Or was there something else in there? Just genuinely curious.

 

[mgteich]

Andy: Care to comment on what you disagree with? I said what I said as someone who actually wants the Pats to go after Trey Lance. But do you honestly think Bill Belichick would be comfortable with Lance as the immediate backup to Cam? Or was there something else in there? Just genuinely curious.

I've added my disagreement.

I don't think that Lance will be the 5th QB picked.

 

[Lansdowne]

I've added my disagreement.

I don't think that Lance will be the 5th QB picked.

He shouldn’t be. I’m just saying it wouldn’t shock me if that’s how it turned out. Mac Jones hype has been heating up lately, and I think he’s going to get picked higher than people are anticipating. For one example, Mike Tannenbaum was on ESPN last month and had Jones going no later than 8th overall. I mean it’s from the same guy who overdrafted on Mark Sanchez, so take it for what it’s worth.



I gave my reasons why some of the teams might get cold feet at choosing Trey Lance. It might be wishful thinking on my part thinking Lance could slide with a reasonable range for the Pats to pounce, but I’ve also seen him mocked as high as 3rd overall. So we’ll see.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Of Lance and Jones, I think Jones has a higher floor than Lance, but Lance has a higher ceiling. In any case, Saban will be giving Belichick his thoughts on Jones and Fields (and Trask).

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I don't know about all those QBs going early; there seems to be a recent trend of drafting OL in those slots; it is lower risk for GMs nervous about their jobs.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If I am the Jets, Miami, Atlanta, Detroit, Denver or the bengals, I would make anybody that wants to trade up for a qb bleed a ton of draft picks.

this should limit the trades inside the top 10 a good bit.