We've Traded For TE James O'Shaughnessy From KC

[PScottman]

BB preferring to use his 2017 draft capital on pro players, rather than college players

This is an excellent take and as a theory could explain quite a bit about the BB drafting methodology if true. The world may never know (I don't see BB as the "Tell All book after retirement type), but is as viable a hypothesis as some others out there.

 

[VJCPatriot]

ST specialist.

Tight End is just the position we call him. Like the way we call Matthew Slater a WR even though he doesn't play that. Position is irrelevant.

I still hope we pick a TE in the 6th or 7th round.

 

[realtime]

ST specialist.

Tight End is just the position we call him. Like the way we call Matthew Slater a WR even though he doesn't play that. Position is irrelevant.

I still hope we pick a TE in the 6th or 7th round.

I don't know what happened to him last year on offense, but the guy can play TE. He is definitely NOT like Slater offensively. Right after the FG at 1:02 of the below is a nice catch-and-run by O-Shag-Hennessey against an outstanding Denver defense:

 

[maineman209]

Sounds like he was all but exclusively used as a blocker.

Not the whole story, though.

In the first 7 games of his rookie season (2015), he had 6 catches on 9 targets for 87 yards (112 snaps) as the #3 TE (of four) behind Kelce and Demetrius Harris. Then, he went to IR with a foot injury.

Last year, he was again the #3 TE (of four), and became a top-end special-teamer, active for all 16 games, getting 18 ST snaps per game (Slater level usage) and 8 ST tackles (would've been 4th on the Pats).

Both seasons, Kelce and Harris stayed healthy all year.

In any case, in terms of passing targets, it's been mostly a 1-TE offense in KC. Harris, the #2TE, has averaged only 9 catches on 16 targets over his three seasons there, with a "high" of 17 rec on 31 tgts in 2016. Basically, that's Hoomanawanui level usage - for their #2 TE.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Does bb start gronkowski out on the pup next season? If the banana can only play 10 games or so a season before getting hurt, this trade makes sense. Allen, o'shaughnessy and lengel to start the year, then add gronkowski after the bye week! Could be the best situation for playoff success.

A healthy gronkowski in the playoffs makes it very difficult for opposing teams to play man to man against us like Houston and Atlanta did.

 

[maineman209]

They were just talking about learning curves on the NFLN and it made me wonder if this is behind the seeming change in Belichick's approach to the offseason and the draft. The new CBA had radically reduced the teaching time coaches have in the offseason and that is obviously going to limit the amount of work the prospects get before the season and extends their learning curve. Belichick may have moved to an approach of brininging in young veteran players who have already shown they can play in the league, so he's effectively trading the extra years a rookie gets for ready to play guys with defined NFL experience. He addressed almost all of their needs with young players with experience through free agency and trades, and thenfilled their remaining needs for depth at edge DL, pass rusher, and OT with the few picks he kept.Unlike pretty much every team in the league the Patriots aren't going to be counting upon rookie production for their improvement this year. It could be an anamoly or it could be the advent of a new approach for him , we will see?

Great thoughts!

This could - in addition, not instead of - be BB's version of "going all in" (on a budget).

A lot of Pats' fans have been clamoring for a few seasons for BB to "go all in" to maximize Brady's chances at rings during the limited time he may remain an elite QB. So, this may be BB's method for doing that without leaving the roster or cap space is shambles three seasons from now (instead of making all the big name signings that would each cost a gazillion dollars).

With both concepts, it's BB shifting gears and adapting to new conditions.

 

[maineman209]

Does bb start gronkowski out on the pup next season? If the banana can only play 10 games or so a season before getting hurt, this trade makes sense. Allen, o'shaughnessy and lengel to start the year, then add gronkowski after the bye week! Could be the best situation for playoff success.

A healthy gronkowski in the playoffs makes it very difficult for opposing teams to play man to man against us like Houston and Atlanta did.

Could very possibly work out that way.

Also, limiting Gronk's snaps and targets could help him stay healthy. From 2011-2015, Gronk averaged over 8 targets per game, a couple years well over 9 tgts/game, with several games every season getting into the 10-15 targets range.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Could very possibly work out that way.

Also, limiting Gronk's snaps and targets could help him stay healthy. From 2011-2015, Gronk averaged over 8 targets per game, a couple years well over 9 tgts/game, with several games every season getting into the 10-15 targets range.

If they need to go into preservation mode with Gronk just so he can last then they aren't going to pay him elite money.

He'll be gone.

 

[deroc5050]

If they need to go into preservation mode with Gronk just so he can last then they aren't going to pay him elite money.

He'll be gone.

If Gronk is read to play he will play. They won't hold him back or preserve him. I am quite certain by September Gronk will be the starting tight end on opening night.

Whether he stays healthy the whole season is another story altogether.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If Gronk is read to play he will play. They won't hold him back or preserve him. I am quite certain by September Gronk will be the starting tight end on opening night.

Whether he stays healthy the whole season is another story altogether.

Starting is irrelevent.

For the past 4 seasons they have allowed him to ramp up in Sept and a little in Oct by barely throwing to him. Some years it was bc of injury. Others were preservation.

Gronk's physical makeup and playing style make him succeptible to injury. The team knows this and are trying to manage his health

My point is preserving him or limiting his targets/touches wont make a difference.

He'll get hurt either way.

 

[Jackson 2]

If Gronk begins the season on the PUP list, people are going to be correctly asking WTF? Furthermore, many of those people correcty asking WTF will likely be his teammates. If he's healthy for the start of the regular season, he plays. This crap about stashing him until the playoffs is horseshit. Not playing while healthy preseason? Fine. Regular season? No f###### way.

 

[deroc5050]

Starting is irrelevent.

For the past 4 seasons they have allowed him to ramp up in Sept and a little in Oct by barely throwing to him. Some years it was bc of injury. Others were preservation.

Gronk's physical makeup and playing style make him succeptible to injury. The tram knows this and ate trying to manage his health

My point is preserving him or limiting his targets/touches wont make a difference.

He'll get hurt either way.

That Earl Thomas hit was massive... Those types of perfect hits don't happen often. I gotta chalk up that last injury to bad luck.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That Earl Thomas hit was massive... Those types of perfect hits don't happen often. I gotta chalk up that last injury to bad luck.

It was a monster hit on a guy with a history of structural issues with his spine

He needs to be more pliable.

 

[maineman209]

If they need to go into preservation mode with Gronk just so he can last then they aren't going to pay him elite money.

He'll be gone.

Gronk's cap hit for 2017 is only 8th highest in the league for TEs at $6.75M. His production per game in 2016 was still better than nearly all starting TEs in the league.

Until he got injured, he was leading the league in yards per catch for ALL pass-catchers (21.6), WRs included, and maintained a 66% catch rate, even at that depth of target. Typical catch rates for the top "deep threat" pass catchers is 55%-60%.

OTOH, Gronk's cap hit for 2018 & 2019 ($11M & $12M) would put him at #1, ... $2M above anyone else in 2019. IDK how much of those salaries may or may not be guaranteed for injury. If they're not, the Pats are only paying for what they get out of him.

Gronk turns 28 this May (a day after I turn 65), so he'll be 29 after the 2018 draft and 30 going into his contract season. I'd guess that significant decisions will be made about his future with the Pats at the end of 2017 based on his performance, contributions and health.

If he's ready to go for the start of 2017, stays healthy and produces well, the Pats could extend him to reduce his cap hits, but he'll be difficult to trade since his cap hits with his new team would still be $9M & $10M respectively.

If he doesn't stay healthy and/or doesn't produce well this season, then a straight up salary reduction, or ...?

Anyway, limiting Gronk to 6-8 targets per game and cutting out those 10-15 target games wouldn't be exactly coddling him. Six tgts/game (~4 catches/game) would still be about 64 catches per season and probably around 1000 yards. Heck, he had 25 catches in 8 games in 2016 and still produced 540 yards.

 

[PatsFan2]

If he makes the team, he might want to think about having those tattoos removed.

Memories don't leave like people do they always stay with you.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Gronk's cap hit for 2017 is only 8th highest in the league for TEs at $6.75M. His production per game in 2016 was still better than nearly all starting TEs in the league.

Until he got injured, he was leading the league in yards per catch for ALL pass-catchers (21.6), WRs included, and maintained a 66% catch rate, even at that depth of target. Typical catch rates for the top "deep threat" pass catchers is 55%-60%.

OTOH, Gronk's cap hit for 2018 & 2019 ($11M & $12M) would put him at #1, ... $2M above anyone else in 2019. IDK how much of those salaries may or may not be guaranteed for injury. If they're not, the Pats are only paying for what they get out of him.

Gronk turns 28 this May (a day after I turn 65), so he'll be 29 after the 2018 draft and 30 going into his contract season. I'd guess that significant decisions will be made about his future with the Pats at the end of 2017 based on his performance, contributions and health.

If he's ready to go for the start of 2017, stays healthy and produces well, the Pats could extend him to reduce his cap hits, but he'll be difficult to trade since his cap hits with his new team would still be $9M & $10M respectively.

If he doesn't stay healthy and/or doesn't produce well this season, then a straight up salary reduction, or ...?

Anyway, limiting Gronk to 6-8 targets per game and cutting out those 10-15 target games wouldn't be exactly coddling him. Six tgts/game (~4 catches/game) would still be about 64 catches per season and probably around 1000 yards. Heck, he had 25 catches in 8 games in 2016 and still produced 540 yards.

Great post. I agree. I want Gronk to end his career here but as you point out the 2018 cap hits won't fly.

I think it's after this year they will want to work out some kind of Hightower esque deal where $ = playing time.

 

[maineman209]

Great post. I agree. I want Gronk to end his career here but as you point out the 2018 cap hits won't fly.

I think it's after this year they will want to work out some kind of Hightower esque deal where $ = playing time.

Well, if his salary isn't guaranteed for injury, if he goes to IR after 8 games, the Pats pay him only for 8 games.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well, if his salary isn't guaranteed for injury, if he goes to IR after 8 games, the Pats pay him only for 8 games.

Yep. I really don't see a smarter way for the team to deal with his injury history.

 

[maineman209]

Yep. I really don't see a smarter way for the team to deal with his injury history.

IIRC, when Gronk signed his current extension in 2012, how much the Pats were going to guarantee for injury was the major sticking point (according to rumor).

 

[RobertWeathers]

IIRC, when Gronk signed his current extension in 2012, how much the Pats were going to guarantee for injury was the major sticking point (according to rumor).

Yea I recall that being an issue as well.