Read somewhere that the Pats will finish in a window of #13-#16 and that’s it. Not higher than #13 and not lower than #16.
Let me mess around with this for a minute....
Pats lose twice = 6-10 record.
Six teams (Jags, Jets, Texans, Falcons, Bengals and Eagles) are all guaranteed to have worse records.
Of the four 5-10 teams, the Lions, Giants, and Panthers all have lower SoS to pick earlier.
Denver is 5-10 and beat the Pats, so if the Broncos beat the Raiders then the Pats get an earlier pick.
Six-win teams: Cowboys (at Giants), Chargers (at KC), Vikings (at Lions) could theoretically win, pushing the Pats to an earlier pick.
SF (vs Seahawks) is another six-win team, but will have a later pick even if they win.
So the Patriots could in theory have the #11 pick, but it is very doubtful they get that early of a draft pick.
#13-#16 is the most realistic. Worst scenario is #17.