We Might Have Traded For A Wide Receiver

[jmt57]

Would it have worth it for us to move up to trade for Tua or Herbert?

What exactly would the Patriots have had to give up, in order to move all the way up to number five or six in last spring's draft?

Let us put ourselves in the shoes of the Miami or Chargers GM for a moment. Why would I trade away that early of a draft pick on a team that needs a QB, forfeiting an opportunity to draft either Tua or Herbert?

I cannot fathom a scenario where a trade to move up that high would make sense - for either team.

 

[jmt57]

I was listening to the radio the other day and they mentioned there was a strong rumour the Pats really loved Herbert. I wish they had made a move for him. Herbert looks great and should be a quality QB for the next 15 years if he stays healthy.

There was no realistic trade for Herbert. The Patriots would have needed to give LAC their first and second round draft picks in 2020, 2021 and 2022 to make it worthwhile from their perspective.

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart – WalterFootball

walterfootball.com

The Chargers were better served drafting Herbert at number six than receiving all those early picks, regardless.

Even if that hypothetical trade did occur, the Patriots still would have had holes everywhere for multiple seasons during Herbert's rookie contract (above and beyond the issues they already have at TE, WR, DL, LB), due to no draft picks until the third round for three years. Each year that passed there would be another hole to fill (safety, corner), with no draft capital to reload and replenish. That would lead to either overpaying in free agency, or further bottoming out.

No bueno.

 

[Ring 6]

BTW, do you believe that everyone is agreed that we should have been willing to trade a 1st for a Diggs or a Jones (or choose your own target, who might be available of not).

I said "folks". I suppose, I could have said "some folks".
===========
AS AN ASIDE
Are we ever going to have enough ammo to trade for a Tua or Burrows? Is the alternative 4th rounders?

How many teams have drafted 1st round QBs as their savior and ended up going right back to the drawing board? It’s not a panacea or a guarantee. There is less chance that tua and burrows will be great qbs who lead their teams to multiple playoff seasons and successes than that they will fail.

 

[Ring 6]

Here are the last 32 QBs drafted in the first round:

• Cam Newton
• Jake Locker
• Blaine Gabbert
• Christian ponder
• Andrew Luck
• RG III
• Ryan Tannehill
• Brandon Weeden
• EJ Manuel
• Blake Bortles
• Johnny Manziel
• Teddy Bridgewater
• Jameis Winston
• Marcus Mariota
• Jared Goff
• Carson wentz
• Paxton Lynch
• Mitch trubisky
• Patrick Mahomes
• Deshaun Watson
• Baker Mayfield
• Sam Darnold
• Josh Allen
• Josh Rosen
• Lamar Jackson
• Kyler Murray
• Daniel Jones
• Dwayne Haskins
• Joe Burrow
• Tua
• Justin Herbert
• Jordan Love

How’s that looking?

Everyone of the first 14 are no longer with the team that drafted them. 2011-2015 14 first round QBs and zero are with the team that drafted them and maybe 3 could be called some level of a success.

Only 13 are currently their teams starting QB and 5 of those have played less than 25 games; a few are hanging by threads, and only 1 can claim his team is a consistent winner - Mahomes - and that team was already winning with Alex freaking Smith!

In another 3 years how many of those 13 will no longer be starters?
Drafting a Qb in the first round to turn your franchise into a winner is not something that works very often.

 

[Boomer B]

Here are the last 32 QBs drafted in the first round:

• Cam Newton
• Jake Locker
• Blaine Gabbert
• Christian ponder
• Andrew Luck
• RG III
• Ryan Tannehill
• Brandon Weeden
• EJ Manuel
• Blake Bortles
• Johnny Manziel
• Teddy Bridgewater
• Jameis Winston
• Marcus Mariota
• Jared Goff
• Carson wentz
• Paxton Lynch
• Mitch trubisky
• Patrick Mahomes
• Deshaun Watson
• Baker Mayfield
• Sam Darnold
• Josh Allen
• Josh Rosen
• Lamar Jackson
• Kyler Murray
• Daniel Jones
• Dwayne Haskins
• Joe Burrow
• Tua
• Justin Herbert
• Jordan Love

How’s that looking?

Everyone of the first 14 are no longer with the team that drafted them. 2011-2015 14 first round QBs and zero are with the team that drafted them and maybe 3 could be called some level of a success.

Only 13 are currently their teams starting QB and 5 of those have played less than 25 games; a few are hanging by threads, and only 1 can claim his team is a consistent winner - Mahomes - and that team was already winning with Alex freaking Smith!

In another 3 years how many of those 13 will no longer be starters?
Drafting a Qb in the first round to turn your franchise into a winner is not something that works very often.

Yet we will still need our next franchise QB. We either draft him, trade for him, or obtain via free agency.

How many teams trade great QBs? Not a likely avenue. Maybe if the rumours are true there’s an avenue for Jimmy G, but he’s an oft injured player who still a ?. Who else? What great QBs are allowed to hit free agency?

While there are many misses like you’ve listed, our best option for our future QB is still likely via the draft, and probably in the 1st round.

 

[Wozzy]

We should have traded for a QB.

Another WR is just another player to ignore or miss with errant passes.

Cams coming around though, by the end of the year he should be better than the 29th ranked QB... all we have to do is play the Jets and Seahawks the rest of the way.

 

[farn]

The Bills overpaid for Diggs. I know he's very good, but my oh my. That was too much.

Giving up multiple high picks for 1 player, & then paying them a huge amount--well, it's just not smart thinking, UNLESS you're very close to being a top team, and this guy will put you over the top. Bills are more like teams #10-13 than they are like teams #1-3.

Bills fancy themselves 1-5. That is where they erred. Wish NE would’ve found another loser wannabe to fleece before the deadline.

 

[Brotherblues]

That and a QB in the draft. Pay for some FA receivers. Wouldn’t be surprised if a DT is the first pick.

Obviously qb is the top priority, but anyone projected as a Wilfork type would be fine by me. Though those don't exactly come around every year...

 

[holyredeemer]

Here are the last 32 QBs drafted in the first round:

• Cam Newton
• Jake Locker
• Blaine Gabbert
• Christian ponder
• Andrew Luck
• RG III
• Ryan Tannehill
• Brandon Weeden
• EJ Manuel
• Blake Bortles
• Johnny Manziel
• Teddy Bridgewater
• Jameis Winston
• Marcus Mariota
• Jared Goff
• Carson wentz
• Paxton Lynch
• Mitch trubisky
• Patrick Mahomes
• Deshaun Watson
• Baker Mayfield
• Sam Darnold
• Josh Allen
• Josh Rosen
• Lamar Jackson
• Kyler Murray
• Daniel Jones
• Dwayne Haskins
• Joe Burrow
• Tua
• Justin Herbert
• Jordan Love

How’s that looking?

Everyone of the first 14 are no longer with the team that drafted them. 2011-2015 14 first round QBs and zero are with the team that drafted them and maybe 3 could be called some level of a success.

Only 13 are currently their teams starting QB and 5 of those have played less than 25 games; a few are hanging by threads, and only 1 can claim his team is a consistent winner - Mahomes - and that team was already winning with Alex freaking Smith!

In another 3 years how many of those 13 will no longer be starters?
Drafting a Qb in the first round to turn your franchise into a winner is not something that works very often.

How many of the 32’s QB’s were not drafted in the first rd? Like what, 6? Even then, a few of those 2nd rd’ers we’re pretty damn close to being 1’s. It can be said that the first round is your best chance, regardless of fail rate.

 

[Ring 6]

Yet we will still need our next franchise QB. We either draft him, trade for him, or obtain via free agency.

How many teams trade great QBs? Not a likely avenue. Maybe if the rumours are true there’s an avenue for Jimmy G, but he’s an oft injured player who still a ?. Who else? What great QBs are allowed to hit free agency?

While there are many misses like you’ve listed, our best option for our future QB is still likely via the draft, and probably in the 1st round.

But that’s the point, over drafting a QB for the sake of him being a qb is a sure recipe for disaster. You build a team, a qb is part of that not 99% of it.

 

[Ring 6]

How many of the 32’s QB’s were not drafted in the first rd? Like what, 6? Even then, a few of those 2nd rd’ers we’re pretty damn close to being 1’s. It can be said that the first round is your best chance, regardless of fail rate.

Of course any first round player has a higher likelihood of success than a 2nd,3rd etc.
Not sure where I implied otherwise.
But people are talking like drafting a QB in the first round is a no brainer, guaranteed solution and even want to throw games a season to do so.
What the data really shows is that trans historically reach and overdraft QBs and it sets them back.
I didn’t say don’t draft a qb in the first round, but I’m saying don’t draft a qb because he’s a QB.

 

[Boomer B]

But that’s the point, over drafting a QB for the sake of him being a qb is a sure recipe for disaster. You build a team, a qb is part of that not 99% of it.

Sure, a QB is “part” of the team, but look at the teams on top of the league and historically the teams that have won the Super Bowl. The vast majority of teams that win in the NFL have franchise QBs.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I was listening to the radio the other day and they mentioned there was a strong rumour the Pats really loved Herbert. I wish they had made a move for him. Herbert looks great and should be a quality QB for the next 15 years if he stays healthy.

He was a hard one to rate and had potential bust written all over him. He basically made his own future in San Diego and gave the middle finger to the skeptics.

Good college career, disappeared sometimes in big games. All the tape on him was from a shotgun formation with very little from pro sets. Thats a huge learning curver made up in little time, so credit to Herbert and the coaches. He’s been a steal and appears to be well on his way to being a pro qb with big potential.

I don’t fault other teams for passing on him or not trading up though. He had a lot to prove.

 

[Ring 6]

Yet we will still need our next franchise QB. We either draft him, trade for him, or obtain via free agency.

How many teams trade great QBs? Not a likely avenue. Maybe if the rumours are true there’s an avenue for Jimmy G, but he’s an oft injured player who still a ?. Who else? What great QBs are allowed to hit free agency?

While there are many misses like you’ve listed, our best option for our future QB is still likely via the draft, and probably in the 1st round.

Also, what do you mean by “franchise QB”?
Perhaps that phrase has been bastardized but to me a “franchise QB” is one who is among the top few players at his position, has you as an annual playoff team and contender.
How many of those guys qualify? How many “franchise QBs” have won multiple SBs in the last 30 years? How many QBs not considered “franchise” have won SBs in the last 30?
My point is there is a huge misconception that drafting a qb in the first round results in success and also that you can’t win a Sb without a franchise QB

 

[Jimke]

We traded Garapolo for a 2nd round pick. Maybe, they will trade him back
for our early 1st round pick.

 

[Ring 6]

Sure, a QB is “part” of the team, but look at the teams on top of the league and historically the teams that have won the Super Bowl. The vast majority of teams that win in the NFL have franchise QBs.

That’s the point its really not the case at least not overwhelmingly.
there are a lot of Flacco, dilfer, Eli, Brad Johnson types winning. If you subtract the anomaly if Brady it’s about 50/50.

 

[Ring 6]

He was a hard one to rate and had potential bust written all over him. He basically made his own future in San Diego and gave the middle finger to the skeptics.

Good college career, disappeared sometimes in big games. All the tape on him was from a shotgun formation with very little from pro sets. Thats a huge learning curver made up in little time, so credit to Herbert and the coaches. He’s been a steal and appears to be well on his way to being a pro qb with big potential.

I don’t fault other teams for passing on him or not trading up though. He had a lot to prove.

He still has a lot to prove.

 

[Boomer B]

Also, what do you mean by “franchise QB”?
Perhaps that phrase has been bastardized but to me a “franchise QB” is one who is among the top few players at his position, has you as an annual playoff team and contender.
How many of those guys qualify? How many “franchise QBs” have won multiple SBs in the last 30 years? How many QBs not considered “franchise” have won SBs in the last 30?
My point is there is a huge misconception that drafting a qb in the first round results in success and also that you can’t win a Sb without a franchise QB

Franchise QB to me means an upper tier QB who can lead the franchise for a number of years.

I get it, there’s risk drafting one in the first, but there’s risk drafting any position. We drafted Harry in the 1st and how’s he looked? Michel in the 1st and he’s average. Since Jones and Hightower in 2012 we only have one first round pick who you’d say was worthy of the pick (Wynn). So yes, there’s risk drafting a QB in the 1st just like there’s risk drafting anyone else, but if we don’t draft a QB where are we finding him?

 

[Boomer B]

That’s the point its really not the case at least not overwhelmingly.
there are a lot of Flacco, dilfer, Eli, Brad Johnson types winning. If you subtract the anomaly if Brady it’s about 50/50.

Not sure I’m understanding your point. Eli, Dilfer, Flacco....all picked in the 1st round.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Franchise QB to me means an upper tier QB who can lead the franchise for a number of years.

I get it, there’s risk drafting one in the first, but there’s risk drafting any position. We drafted Harry in the 1st and how’s he looked? Michel in the 1st and he’s average. Since Jones and Hightower in 2012 we only have one first round pick who you’d say was worthy of the pick (Wynn). So yes, there’s risk drafting a QB in the 1st just like there’s risk drafting anyone else, but if we don’t draft a QB where are we finding him?

Ring is talking about franchise player in the old term. Who which would be considered Manning, Brady, Marino. Top of the ladder, like franchise Left tackle. Joe Thomas, Orlando Pace, Larry Allen. Franchise meaning more than just a 10-12 year player but also elite tier level at the position.

Thats what it used to mean, but somewhere along the line the meaning changed a bit.