Patriots Pregame Thread We are on to Tampa Bay: AFCE vs NFCS division leaders, 2025 Week 10

[denverpatsfan]

Mayfield has been running a bunch to make 1st downs in crunch time. Gonna be tough to turn your back to him and play man all game.
A real QB this week. Looking forward to see how the defense can handle him.

 

[PatsFan2]

Mayfield has been running a bunch to make 1st downs in crunch time. Gonna be tough to turn your back to him and play man all game.
A real QB this week. Looking forward to see how the defense can handle him.

I think this will have to be one of those Outscore them type of game. The Bengals game should be the same.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Arguably the Game of the Week.
Two division leaders, both tied for the best record in their respective conferences.
7-2 versus 6-2.

It's too late to flex this game into Sunday night, and it won't be shifted into the late time slot.
Reason for that is that this game is on CBS, while Fox has the Week 10 doubleheader.
With it being a week with only a single game on CBS, they'll leave it on early.
Fox will stick with Rams at 49ers in the 4:30 time slot; no reason to change that game.


Buccaneers open as 2½-point home favorites, with an over/under of 48½ points.


On offense Baker Mayfield rarely throws a pick, and they rely on their passing game much more the the run game.
Similar to the Patriots, Tampa Bay's defense is very effective against opponent's runners, and more susceptible in pass defense.
They hold onto the ball better than New England does, with only five turnovers this season (second fewest in the NFL).

The Bucs are coming off a bye week, which they badly needed based on their injuries.
Tampa Bay had 17 players on the injury report and ten did not practice at one point last week.
WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are on IR and won't play, but it is possible WR Chris Godwin and RB Bucky Irving could return.



Overall Tampa Bay Statistics

Bold indicates a top-ten stat
Underline indicates a bottom-ten stat


Bucs Offense ........................... Value (rank)
Points/Game ........................... 24.6 (#15)
Yards/Game ............................. 323.0 (#17)
Points/Play ............................... 0.402 (#15)
Yards/Play ................................. 5.3 (#19)
3D Conversion % .................. 36.27% (#25)
4D Conversion % .................. 50.00% (#22)
RZ Scoring % (TD) ................ 50.00% (#26)
TDs/Game ............................... 2.6 (#18)

Bucs Defense ........................ Value (rank)
Opp Points/Game ............... 22.3 (#13)
Opp Yards/Game ................. 321.4 (#15)
Opp Points/Play ................... 0.360 (#12)
Opp Yards/Play ..................... 5.2 (#10)
Opp 3D Conv % ................... 38.84% (#16)
Opp 4D Conv % ................... 44.44% (#3)
Opp RZ Scoring % (TD) ..... 63.16% (#22)
Opp TDs/Game ..................... 2.4 (#13)


Tampa Bay Rushing Statistics

Bucs Offense ........................ Value (rank)
Rush Play % .......................... 41.63% (#21)
Yards/Rush ............................ 3.8 (#26)
Rushes/Game ....................... 25.5 (#23)
Rush Yards/Game ............... 98.1 (#24)
Rush TDs/Game .................. 0.8 (#17)

Bucs Defense ....................... Value (rank)
Opp Rush Play % ............... 38.59% (#8)
Opp Yards/Rush .................. 3.9 (#6)
Opp Rushes/Game ............ 23.9 (#8)
Opp Rush Yards/Game ..... 92.6 (#7)
Opp Rush TDs/Game ........ 0.9 (#16)


Tampa Bay Passing Statistics

Bucs Offense ........................... Value (rank)
Pass Play % .......................... 58.37% (#12)
Completion % ..................... 63.94% (#21)
Yards/Pass ............................. 7.1 (#15)
Passes/Game ....................... 33.6 (#14)
Pass Yards/Game ............... 224.9 (#13)
Int Thrown % ....................... 0.74% (#3)
QB Sacked % ....................... 5.94% (#12)

Bucs Defense ...................... Value (rank)
Opp Pass Play % ............... 61.41% (#25)
Opp Completion % .......... 67.38% (#21)
Opp Yards/Pass .................. 7.3 (#21)
Opp Passes/Game ............. 34.9 (#23)
Opp Pass Yards/Game ..... 228.8 (#22)
Opp Int Thrown % ............. 2.51% (#11)
Sack % .................................... 8.22% (#10)


Turnovers
TO Margin/Game ............... +0.9 (#4)
Takeaways/Game ................. 1.5 (#5)
Giveaways/Game ................. 0.6 (#3)
Int Thrown % ......................... 0.74% (#3)
Opp Int Thrown % ............... 2.51% (#11)

Time of Possession ............. 51.65% (#11)



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Really interesting metrics when we look at the Bucs. We can see that they have a legit top 10 defense. Especially when stuffing the run.

So our gameplan should involve more screens and quick slants to substitute the short passing game for the run game. There's no use running your head into a brick wall over and over again.

Their offense looks decidedly mediocre. We should look to continue to hold the opponent's lead RB to under 50 yards and then force Baker Mayfield to beat us with his arm. Honestly he's not that scary but he has a ton of quality weapons at his disposal with Ebuka, Evans, and Godwin. Gonzalez needs to be healthy and ready for this one. Our whole secondary needs to play well.

It also looks like they protect their QB well and don't give up a lot of sacks or pressures so it might be difficult to get to Mayfield. We're going to have to manufacture pressure by doing stuff on defense whether it's stunts or blitzes, we will see but you can't give him 8 seconds in the pocket each snap or we might make Baker look a lot better than he is.

I still think we can win this matchup but it will be a tight game. We need to start off the game fast. No lethargic starts and coming back in the second half please. Take care of the football, no turnovers, and this should be winnable. That said even though I'm optimistic this could easily be our banana peel game against a really solid and talented Bucs team.

 

[mgteich]

Yeah.. we have Ellis so we're all set.

Mapu takes few reps on Defense. He is primarily a STer.
The substitute for Elliss is Gibbens. Spillane, Eliss and Gibbens (and even Tavai) take the ILB reps.
=========
If Mapu Has a role on the defense, I don't know what that is. Are his fewer than 10 reps a game really useful?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

No irving or godwin again today. Goedeke at practice again and appears likely to play

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Especially for out of town fans...

How do we feel about a nationally televised 1 p.m. game?
AAAAAAWWWW YEAHHHHH

It's been a long time coming

I remember when it barely mattered to live out of town -- half the games would end up nationally televised anyway.

Feels good -- I could get used to this (again.)

 

[Real fan 02]

Mapu takes few reps on Defense. He is primarily a STer.
The substitute for Elliss is Gibbens. Spillane, Eliss and Gibbens (and even Tavai) take the ILB reps.
=========
If Mapu as a role on the defense, I don't know what that is. Are his 10 reps a game really useful?

Yes. In his limited snaps he is... he has range, he's listed as LB so he factors into the rotation.. he realistically is the only LB that can at least attempt to cover someone or perhaps spy a mobile QB..

 

[Real fan 02]

No irving or godwin again today. Goedeke at practice again and appears likely to play

Only way realistically TB scores on us is by TOs..

 

[PatsFan2]

No irving or godwin again today. Goedeke at practice again and appears likely to play

We can bet Godwin ain't playing this week either: that injury was really bad for him. We need a Big Game form S Diggs *100yds rec game* it's been a while. Glad Pop Douglas is coming around with those Big chunk plays in the passing game.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Only way realistically TB scores on us is by TOs..

Hopefully, mayfield has understably had a couple quieter games without the big 2 and Irving. Defense gotta capitalize and offense MUST protect the ball

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

We can bet Godwin ain't playing this week either: that injury was really bad for him. We need a Big Game form S Diggs *100yds rec game* it's been a while. Glad Pop Douglas is coming around with those Big chunk plays in the passing game.

Its looking alot like we dodged a major bullet with godwin. Imagine him at 30m per and no diggs right now

 

[PatsFan2]

Its looking alot like we dodged a major bullet with godwin. Imagine him at 30m per and no diggs right now

I know him and S Diggs are like night and day with those injuries. I thought Godwin would be good to go by now: but that hasn't been the case. They're really fortunate they Drafted Egbuka and Tez Johnson; they're banged up at @ WR.

 

[PatsFan2]

Its looking alot like we dodged a major bullet with godwin. Imagine him at 30m per and no diggs right now.

 

[Real fan 02]

Hopefully, mayfield has understably had a couple quieter games without the big 2 and Irving. Defense gotta capitalize and offense MUST protect the ball

The defensive line stops the run and sets the edge consistently each week.. we are an elite Run D.. they make teams one divisional.. ironically it's been the secondary that at times had had some breakdowns in coverage.. if gonzo is healthy enough.. be good to see him erase someone and be good to see C. Davis get a pick off his old team.

 

[Real fan 02]

We no longer have to be put in a position to have to be desperate for often injured players... Godwin best days are behind him...

 

[Real fan 02]

I know him and S Diggs are like night and day with those injuries. I thought Godwin would be good to go by now: but that hasn't been the case. They're really fortunate they Drafted Egbuka and Tez Johnson; they're banged up at @ WR.

That is why.. I'm going to be watching gonzo and Davis.... if they play zone baker's going to eat the secondary up.

 

[Real fan 02]

I know him and S Diggs are like night and day with those injuries. I thought Godwin would be good to go by now: but that hasn't been the case. They're really fortunate they Drafted Egbuka and Tez Johnson; they're banged up at @ WR.

He got a fiblua injury just when he returned from the injury from last season..

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Its looking alot like we dodged a major bullet with godwin. Imagine him at 30m per and no diggs right now

And Aiyuk and Ridley last year.

 

[Real fan 02]

And Aiyuk and Ridley last year.

And Hopkins as well..

 

[jdlboot14]

Even with Bucs missing their offensive stars, it's going to be a tight one. Just because they are an experienced team and have been in a lot of close games and are used to coming from behind.