WAPO: Best teams ranked on Draft Value since 1996

[JDot]

Mods you might want to move this to the Draft forum, but I am going to drop this link here first .

The Washington Post just Published a really cool draft value interactive read for each team since 1996. Just click on the link, then click on the team. A lot of great stats.

Legendary? Lousy? How your team has fared in the NFL draft

Here is WAPOS's rankings based of said stats of each team since 96.

Spoiler: Rankings 1-32

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (16.37)

2. Indianapolis Colts (15.27)

3. Green Bay Packers (14.86)

4. Baltimore Ravens (14.71)

5. New England Patriots (14.71)

6. Carolina Panthers (14.31)

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (13.75)

8. Philadelphia Eagles (13.39)

9. New York Jets (13.32)

10. San Diego Chargers (13.18)

11. Cincinnati Bengals (13.13)

12. New Orleans Saints (13.05)

13. Seattle Seahawks (12.92)

14. Minnesota Vikings (12.91)

15. Chicago Bears (12.73)

16. Miami Dolphins (12.69)

17. Dallas Cowboys (12.62)

18. New York Giants (12.53)

19. Atlanta Falcons (12.47)

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12.44)

21. Arizona Cardinals (12.3)

22. Denver Broncos (12.1)

23. Houston Texans (11.96)

24. Kansas City Chiefs (11.71)

25. Washington Redskins (11.7)

26. Tennessee Titans (11.55)

27. San Francisco 49ers (11.29)

28. Detroit Lions (11.1)

29. St. Louis Rams (10.85)

30. Buffalo Bills (10.79)

31. Oakland Raiders (10.66)

32. Cleveland Browns (9.55)

Really fun stuff to read and fiddle around with. Click on the Link, and enjoy.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

The bottom 5 is no suprize, but thought the Pats would be a little higher.

 

[JDot]

The bottom 5 is no suprize, but thought the Pats would be a little higher.

Colts higher then the Pats irked me a bit. But Pats top 5 makes sense. It is going back to 96 after all.

 

[RxJock1120]

Great idea, marginal execution.

The Ravens, Packers, and Colts who have combined to win a total of 3 Super Bowl titles since 1996 are all ranked higher than the Pat's who have won 4 Super Bowl titles???!!! Especially interesting considering that the Pats build their teams primarily through the draft.

Putting Ray Lewis in the same category as TB in regards to draft day steals is a complete joke. Say whatever you want about Ray Lewis, I can't stand him myself, but he was an amazing player....however he was drafted in the 1st Round while Brady was taken in the 6th!!!

 

[RobertWeathers]

Colts higher then the Pats irked me a bit. But Pats top 5 makes sense. It is going back to 96 after all.

Those 1997-1999 draft disasters are the equivalent of going to high school and missing a year of midterms and ending up with a 3.7 GPA.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

How are the Jaguars #7 ?!

Just two slots under the Pats?

DOES

NOT

COMPUTE

 

[supafly]

How are the Jaguars #7 ?!

Just two slots under the Pats?

DOES

NOT

COMPUTE

Especially when you consider the fact that they normally draft top 5-10 every year!

 

[supafly]

Tagging @Danger Zone due to his interest on the subject.

 

[jah]

How are the Jaguars #7 ?!

Just two slots under the Pats?

DOES

NOT

COMPUTE

They've only been garbage for the last 5ish years. Were perpetually average before that.

 

[jah]

Those 1997-1999 draft disasters are the equivalent of going to high school and missing a year of midterms and ending up with a 3.7 GPA.

Pats drafts also weren't that great until the 2010s when someone left and we thought the drafting would get worse but it actually improved (Pioli?)

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

They've only been garbage for the last 5ish years. Were perpetually average before that.

Good point, but they still look overrated and should not be almost with the Pats.

 

[JDot]

Great idea, marginal execution.

The Ravens, Packers, and Colts who have combined to win a total of 3 Super Bowl titles since 1996 are all ranked higher than the Pat's who have won 4 Super Bowl titles???!!! Especially interesting considering that the Pats build their teams primarily through the draft.

Putting Ray Lewis in the same category as TB in regards to draft day steals is a complete joke. Say whatever you want about Ray Lewis, I can't stand him myself, but he was an amazing player....however he was drafted in the 1st Round while Brady was taken in the 6th!!!

I agree with you. And that is only the tip of the iceberg to argue about. That's what makes this read so good tho...

..Just a really fun read. So much to agree and disagree with. I am still digging my way through each team.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Pats drafts also weren't that great until the 2010s when someone left and we thought the drafting would get worse but it actually improved (Pioli?)

Yea from 05 to 08 the picks were pretty dearth of solid selections. Mayo and a few others but for 40 or so picks it was not a good showing.

 

[Danger Zone]

Mods you might want to move this to the Draft forum, but I am going to drop this link here first .

The Washington Post just Published a really cool draft value interactive read for each team since 1996. Just click on the link, then click on the team. A lot of great stats.

Legendary? Lousy? How your team has fared in the NFL draft

Here is WAPOS's rankings based of said stats of each team since 96.

Spoiler: Rankings 1-32

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (16.37)

2. Indianapolis Colts (15.27)

3. Green Bay Packers (14.86)

4. Baltimore Ravens (14.71)

5. New England Patriots (14.71)

Really fun stuff to read and fiddle around with. Click on the Link, and enjoy.

For what it's worth, where (on average) in the round were the top 5 Drafters picking?

Average Draft Position* (1st to 32nd) in each Round for the past 15 years.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (16.37)
23rd (23.46)

2. Indianapolis Colts (15.27)
24th (24.13)

3. Green Bay Packers (14.86)
24th (23.53)

4. Baltimore Ravens (14.71)
21st (21.00)

5. New England Patriots (14.71)
28th (27.86)

*Average Draft Position does not take trades into account, just original draft position based on end-of-year standings.

Using a Draft Trade Chart and comparing the difference in Draft Value over the first three rounds between the Patriots at 28 and say the next closest teams, the Colts/Packers at 24, we come up with a difference in Draft Value of 138. That is the equivalent of a late Third Round pick (#91).

Just based on their average starting position in the draft (and not including Trades), every team that ranked above us has received the Draft Value equivalent of a mid to late 3rd Round Pick... every year.

 

[Mike the Brit]

For what it's worth, where (on average) in the round were the top 5 Drafters picking?

Average Draft Position* (1st to 32nd) in each Round for the past 15 years.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (16.37)
23.46

2. Indianapolis Colts (15.27)
24.13

3. Green Bay Packers (14.86)
23.53

4. Baltimore Ravens (14.71)
21st

5. New England Patriots (14.71)
27.86

*Average Draft Position does not take trades into account, just original draft position based on end-of-year standings.

THAT is one amazing statistic -- drafting at 28, year in year out for 15 years.

 

[jah]

Good point, but they still look overrated and should not be almost with the Pats.

Yeah, no excuse for that one.

 

[Danger Zone]

THAT is one amazing statistic -- drafting at 28, year in year out for 15 years.

To be honest, I am fudging the numbers a little by not including 2000 and 2001 where the Patriots drafted 16th and 6th, which brings down their Average Draft Position to 26 (25.88).

I excuse this in my head because both years are isolated as it were at the very start of Belichick's career and reflect more on the previous GMs than on him. That and 15 continuous years carries with it a very real kind of significance in its own right.

 

[Danger Zone]

Yea from 05 to 08 the picks were pretty dearth of solid selections. Mayo and a few others but for 40 or so picks it was not a good showing.

That very well could be (and it really well could be).

However, I also feel it's fair to think of the Draft as a study in randomness as much as it is an exercise in talent evaluation.

For the past 15 years, the Patriots have picked on average at the 28th spot in each round. League Averages show that picking that late in the round carries with it a much higher Bust Rate than what picks have earlier in the round.

1st (pick 28)
30% Bust Rate

2nd (pick 56)
50% Bust Rate

3rd (pick 84)
70% Bust Rate

Like with poker, its normal to have clusters of failures and successes.

EDIT:
While I don't buy into this completely, I can't but feel this Paradox of Skill has a very real effect on what we see in NFL drafting.

No Team Can Beat the Draft

The author Michael Mauboussin has written about what he calls the “Paradox of Skill,” a counterintuitive theory that states that as the aggregate skill level of a market’s participants increases, the proportion of outcomes attributable to luck also increases. Put another way, the smaller the variation in skill between competitors, the more opportunity for randomness to be a differentiating factor. By this reading, NFL general managers are the victims of their own obsessive pre-draft preparations — their skill level has increased so much that only the effects of chance remain.

 

[pmb116]

Great idea, marginal execution.

The Ravens, Packers, and Colts who have combined to win a total of 3 Super Bowl titles since 1996 are all ranked higher than the Pat's who have won 4 Super Bowl titles???!!! Especially interesting considering that the Pats build their teams primarily through the draft.

Putting Ray Lewis in the same category as TB in regards to draft day steals is a complete joke. Say whatever you want about Ray Lewis, I can't stand him myself, but he was an amazing player....however he was drafted in the 1st Round while Brady was taken in the 6th!!!

Combined 5 Super Bowl titles if you want include the 96 Packers(Packersx2, Coltsx1, Ravensx2) but your point still stands.

 

[wizwor]

I cannot believe people are losing their minds over this. The Pats are top five by their calculations. Draft is just one of the ways teams are built. Also the Pats have been dominant overall since BB arrived, but each year they have been just a little better than the teams that made the tournament. This is just more support of the ideas that BB gets the most out of his resources. We all knew that. Do you really want a team that relies on the draft to win? Relax!