Trading Back Up Into The First Isn't Something To Count On

[mgteich]

We need to draft a LT with our first pick. It is really that simple. That pick could be anywhere in the first half of the draft, but our first pick needs to be a LT if we want any of the top 5. The pickings are thin after that although folks have mentioned Ersery, Grant and Ozzie as THREE who MIGHT be available with our first 3rd round pick

We tried the strategy last year of trying to trade back into the first for a major need. It simply didn't work.

First, there will be several teams trying to trade back into the bottom of the first to get a player for the extra year. This is especially important at QB.

But let us look at OT. I expect the top 5 OT's be gone by 16. We would need to get that high to HOPE to get a Simmons, Banks or even Conerly. In addition, that kind of trade would likely cost at least two picks from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

[Ring 6]

We need to draft a LT with our first pick. It is really that simple. That pick could be anywhere in the first half of the draft, but our first pick needs to be a LT if we want any of the top 5. The pickings are thin after that although folks have mentioned Ersery, Grant and Ozzie as THREE who MIGHT be available with our first 3rd round pick

We tried the strategy last year of trying to trade back into the first for a major need. It simply didn't work.

First, there will be several teams trying to trade back into the bottom of the first to get a player for the extra year. This is especially important at QB.

But let us look at OT. I expect the top 5 OT's be gone by 16. We would need to get that high to HOPE to get a Simmons, Banks or even Conerly. In addition, that kind of trade would likely cost at least two picks from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

The smart move is to trade down to 12-15 draft the LT, then take 38 plus some of what we got in the trade down to move back into round 1 and draft a WR.

After take BPA at any position other than QB, WR or S.

 

[patfanken]

We need to draft a LT with our first pick. It is really that simple. That pick could be anywhere in the first half of the draft, but our first pick needs to be a LT if we want any of the top 5. The pickings are thin after that although folks have mentioned Ersery, Grant and Ozzie as THREE who MIGHT be available with our first 3rd round pick

We tried the strategy last year of trying to trade back into the first for a major need. It simply didn't work.

First, there will be several teams trying to trade back into the bottom of the first to get a player for the extra year. This is especially important at QB.

But let us look at OT. I expect the top 5 OT's be gone by 16. We would need to get that high to HOPE to get a Simmons, Banks or even Conerly. In addition, that kind of trade would likely cost at least two picks from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Here's the thing. You. are correct in that we shouldn't expect a trade back on Thursday. The only way that could possibly happen is if Carter falls to #4 based on all the very late "character issues" that have, to my mind, suddenly popped up in the last week of the run up to the draft. If he falls to us, we MAY get some interest in the fourth pick.

Sorry but when you are picking at #4 and the best player at a PREMIUM position becomes available to you and your alternative is to draft for "need" and your selection of alternatives ALL come with significant physical or athletic flaws. You CANNOT pass up on that player.

Campbell comparisons to Vrabel first round draft pick short armed Nick Sikorsky are eerily similar, and he too was moved to guard and the transition hasn't been smooth at G either.

Membou "flaw is that he's young and hasn't played on the left side as a T. His "athletic potential" is just as good as Campbell's, but he's not as polished a technician. Higher ceiling perhaps lower floor.

Banks, who actually was the Outland winner, is the #3 rated OT. He has plenty of experience and success and 3 years as a LT. Not quite the athlete that Membou and Campbell are; Banks would be a solid pick if we were to trade down to the #10 area

Joe Thuney is a PROVEN all pro quality offensive linemen who has an arm length similar to Campbell's and lots and LOTS of NFL experience, and HE couldn't cope with a strong 4 man pass rush.

For me it is NOT about the arm length because the differences between Membou and Banks and several others of the top 5 OT prospects is literally FRACTIONS of an inch. But it's the 77 inch wing-span that scares the **** out of me. In that area Cambell is 5-6 inches shorter than Membou and Banks. His absurd athleticism and superior effort will make up for some of that physical liability, but not against the best players in the biggest games. Thuney has played a number of games at OT for the Chiefs over the years and did pretty well, by all accounts, but the issue was pretty clear in the superbowl.

As I write this, I just can find myself thinking that Campell isn't going to be much better than a top 15-20 starting LT at best. It makes you better, but just not what you want when you are picking at #4.

So if going OT is a must. Take Membou and live with him making the transition to the left side. He's an AWESOME athlete, there is no doubt in my mind he can do it. But there is also no doubt that the transition will not be without its hiccups along the way. But in the end, in 2 or three years we could have a top 5 LT to show for it.

Trading down and getting Banks would be a good first day as well. Hearing Campbell's name will leave me less than thrilled.

 

[Ring 6]

Here's the thing. You. are correct in that we shouldn't expect a trade back on Thursday. The only way that could possibly happen is if Carter falls to #4 based on all the very late "character issues" that have, to my mind, suddenly popped up in the last week of the run up to the draft. If he falls to us, we MAY get some interest in the fourth pick.

Sorry but when you are picking at #4 and the best player at a PREMIUM position becomes available to you and your alternative is to draft for "need" and your selection of alternatives ALL come with significant physical or athletic flaws. You CANNOT pass up on that player.

Campbell comparisons to Vrabel first round draft pick short armed Nick Sikorsky are eerily similar, and he too was moved to guard and the transition hasn't been smooth at G either.

Membou "flaw is that he's young and hasn't played on the left side as a T. His "athletic potential" is just as good as Campbell's, but he's not as polished a technician. Higher ceiling perhaps lower floor.

Banks, who actually was the Outland winner, is the #3 rated OT. He has plenty of experience and success and 3 years as a LT. Not quite the athlete that Membou and Campbell are; Banks would be a solid pick if we were to trade down to the #10 area

Joe Thuney is a PROVEN all pro quality offensive linemen who has an arm length similar to Campbell's and lots and LOTS of NFL experience, and HE couldn't cope with a strong 4 man pass rush.

For me it is NOT about the arm length because the differences between Membou and Banks and several others of the top 5 OT prospects is literally FRACTIONS of an inch. But it's the 77 inch wing-span that scares the **** out of me. In that area Cambell is 5-6 inches shorter than Membou and Banks. His absurd athleticism and superior effort will make up for some of that physical liability, but not against the best players in the biggest games. Thuney has played a number of games at OT for the Chiefs over the years and did pretty well, by all accounts, but the issue was pretty clear in the superbowl.

As I write this, I just can find myself thinking that Campell isn't going to be much better than a top 15-20 starting LT at best. It makes you better, but just not what you want when you are picking at #4.

So if going OT is a must. Take Membou and live with him making the transition to the left side. He's an AWESOME athlete, there is no doubt in my mind he can do it. But there is also no doubt that the transition will not be without its hiccups along the way. But in the end, in 2 or three years we could have a top 5 LT to show for it.

Trading down and getting Banks would be a good first day as well. Hearing Campbell's name will leave me less than thrilled.

I am shocked that someone who has played and coached the game thinks players are only their measurables.
Why would “wingspan” make a good player bad? Exactly what do you think a tackle does with wingspan?show me some plays where being able to reach out a couple inches farther accomplished anything but a holding penalty

That said the best move is to trade down and take Simmons.

 

[mgteich]

Trading down and getting Banks would be a good first day as well. Hearing Campbell's name will leave me less than thrilled.

this

 

[patfanken]

I am shocked that someone who has played and coached the game thinks players are only their measurables.
Why would “wingspan” make a good player bad? Exactly what do you think a tackle does with wingspan?show me some plays where being able to reach out a couple inches farther accomplished anything but a holding penalty

That said the best move is to trade down and take Simmons.

Well, it seems to me that you're telling me that drafting a 6'9 great college basketball player to be a C, because Bill Russell and Dave Cowens were both successful C's. Well maybe that not the greatest metaphor, but you see what I mean.

BTW, I am NOT saying that Campbell is going to be unable to play LT or that he will be horrible at it. If his name is called the Pats will be a better team. My complaint is that I very much doubt if he will be a GREAT LT. And that is what I'm hoping to find when I'm picking #4, a potentially great player.

Now I recognize that there are a LOT of top 4 picks don't end up being great players, BUT on the day they were drafted that fan base had the HOPE of them being great. Given his physical limitations I do not see Campbell being great. Just take the Joe Thuney example. I know he IS a great OG, but physical limitations make him just an average LT, and Campbell's limitations are greater than Thuney's

If Campbell's name IS the pick, I will hope like hell that he will be the anomaly, but the odds are they won't. The fact is that we will be picking at #4 a player who in most years would be picked in the mid-teens or early 20's.

 

[Kdo5]

We need to draft a LT with our first pick. It is really that simple. That pick could be anywhere in the first half of the draft, but our first pick needs to be a LT if we want any of the top 5. The pickings are thin after that although folks have mentioned Ersery, Grant and Ozzie as THREE who MIGHT be available with our first 3rd round pick

We tried the strategy last year of trying to trade back into the first for a major need. It simply didn't work.

First, there will be several teams trying to trade back into the bottom of the first to get a player for the extra year. This is especially important at QB.

But let us look at OT. I expect the top 5 OT's be gone by 16. We would need to get that high to HOPE to get a Simmons, Banks or even Conerly. In addition, that kind of trade would likely cost at least two picks from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

The Pats will draft Campbell because they are scared of ****ing up like they did last draft and watching a run on tackles happen before they could pick one.

I certainly don’t love it and hope like hell we can trade back if they are dead set on this. Guard Will Campbell is a mid first round value. And we’re taking him at 4. Ehhhh

 

[Grogan14]

There are going to be lots of teams drafting below the patriots who will get players with much higher ceilings.

 

[dliverey44]

this

I am low on Banks and I would incredibly disappointed with him as out LT. I would be thrilled with the extra picks from a trade down though.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, it seems to me that you're telling me that drafting a 6'9 great college basketball player to be a C, because Bill Russell and Dave Cowens were both successful C's. Well maybe that not the greatest metaphor, but you see what I mean.

BTW, I am NOT saying that Campbell is going to be unable to play LT or that he will be horrible at it. If his name is called the Pats will be a better team. My complaint is that I very much doubt if he will be a GREAT LT. And that is what I'm hoping to find when I'm picking #4, a potentially great player.

Now I recognize that there are a LOT of top 4 picks don't end up being great players, BUT on the day they were drafted that fan base had the HOPE of them being great. Given his physical limitations I do not see Campbell being great. Just take the Joe Thuney example. I know he IS a great OG, but physical limitations make him just an average LT, and Campbell's limitations are greater than Thuney's

If Campbell's name IS the pick, I will hope like hell that he will be the anomaly, but the odds are they won't. The fact is that we will be picking at #4 a player who in most years would be picked in the mid-teens or early 20's.

He won’t be great or not great because of an inch of arm length.
Thuney physical limitations that make him a G and not a LT isn’t the length of his arm.
I’m not sure what this limitation you think Campbell has is, unless it’s the ridiculous arm length which Dante scarnecchia and Joe Thomas both say is meaningless. No one has yet to tell me what a half inch of arm length would impede or how it is a disability. Look at you hand. Take away the last knuckle. Does that affect your ability to block?
Campbell is consensus the best LT in the draft, there is no way he is going 20th in a different year. His tape is worthy of #4.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

There are going to be lots of teams drafting below the patriots who will get players with much higher ceilings.

TFB was drafted 199th.
Way to go out on a fkn limb there Schleprock.

 

[signbabybrady]

If this is actually the plan and the players we want are available then here is a novel idea outbid everyone else so one of the few teams willing to trade actually trades with us.

 

[KCSVEN]

The smart move is to trade down to 12-15 draft the LT, then take 38 plus some of what we got in the trade down to move back into round 1 and draft a WR.

After take BPA at any position other than QB, WR or S.

Consensus mock has Campbell at 4, Membou at 7, Banks at 10 so going to 12-15 might leave you with Josh Simmons, with a massive injury question, and someone who might not be ready for the start of the season. Maybe Banks then slips if you trade out of 4 but Banks tape at LT is much worse than Campbell.

That move down assume you rank the top 4-5 tackles somewhat equally. That is highly unlikely. With a weak LT draft, why not just take the guy you think is the best? If none of them are good enough then just draft Ersery in the 2nd, move up slightly if you have to.

All reports are Pats love Campbell and love him as a LT. If you don't feel that way about anyone else then why trade down to take a weaker prospect in your #1 position of need? Especially since trade downs are being offered 70 cents on the dollar this year?

 

[patfanken]

He won’t be great or not great because of an inch of arm length.
Thuney physical limitations that make him a G and not a LT isn’t the length of his arm.
I’m not sure what this limitation you think Campbell has is, unless it’s the ridiculous arm length which Dante scarnecchia and Joe Thomas both say is meaningless. No one has yet to tell me what a half inch of arm length would impede or how it is a disability. Look at you hand. Take away the last knuckle. Does that affect your ability to block?
Campbell is consensus the best LT in the draft, there is no way he is going 20th in a different year. His tape is worthy of #4.

Andy, Here's why I don't like to get into discussions with you. You don't seem to read my posts. How many times do I have to say that I DON'T have a problem with Campbell's arm length. I say it in EVERY post I have made on the subject. I make a point of saying it. And I said it CLEARLY in the post you quoted, but since it the comment conflicts with your point of view, you chose to simply ignore it and continue your repetitive argument as if it wasn't said.

My problem with Campbell's physical limitations is his WING-SPAN, which is significantly shorter (5-6 inches) than the other OT prospect. IIRC, it's been pointed out that ZERO long term LT's have had a wingspan that short over the last 2 and half decades. Again it's not by fractions of inches, it's by almost a half a foot.

What that means on the playing field is that a LOT of edge rusher will be able to get their hands on Campbell first and make blocking them harder. As I have said before, and you seem to ignore, Campbell's success in college is a credit to his athletic ability and effort. I have repeatedly stated that he might even become a decent NFL starter and would certainly be an improvement on our team.

BUT his upside is limited by his physical limitation of his WING-SPAN, not his arm length. He is unlikely to be a bust, just not an elite LT in the league. So if you want to select a draft pick at #4, whose ceiling is being a top 15-20 LT, that's your choice, but I would rather choose someone at that spot who offers a higher ceiling even if it isn't a LT

So buddy, please read my posts more carefully in the future, so we don't run into these confusions. The point is. is Campbell worth the #4 pick or our we over drafting based on need.

 

[BelizePats]

There are going to be lots of teams drafting below the patriots who will get players with much higher ceilings.

Your commitment to misery is rather odd

 

[Nunchucks]

The other problem with a trade back in to round 1 is it makes it more difficult to get players who will contribute this year.

 

[patman52]

We need to draft a LT with our first pick. It is really that simple. That pick could be anywhere in the first half of the draft, but our first pick needs to be a LT if we want any of the top 5. The pickings are thin after that although folks have mentioned Ersery, Grant and Ozzie as THREE who MIGHT be available with our first 3rd round pick

We tried the strategy last year of trying to trade back into the first for a major need. It simply didn't work.

First, there will be several teams trying to trade back into the bottom of the first to get a player for the extra year. This is especially important at QB.

But let us look at OT. I expect the top 5 OT's be gone by 16. We would need to get that high to HOPE to get a Simmons, Banks or even Conerly. In addition, that kind of trade would likely cost at least two picks from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

What didn't work last year was the trade down in the 2nd with Polk over McConkey. I dont think Simmons goes top 20 at all. Great upside, but to think he is sure to be ready in sept to push a 300 lb DT for 60 times a game is a big gamble for a mid 1st. And I much rather have a guy like Jalon Walker who has the potential to be an all pro than a LT who may be Matt Light at his ceiling. If you dont go LT in the first I have no problem taking Grant, Ersery in the 2nd. Trappilo should not even be on the list as a RT. In the 3rd Belton. Hell, I think Donavan Jackson did very good at LT last year and Brown's diabetes does not scare me. My ffirst choice for LT next sept is DJ Humphries who should be fully revered from his ACL 18 months out.

 

[mgteich]

What didn't work last year was the trade down in the 2nd with Polk over McConkey. I dont think Simmons goes top 20 at all. Great upside, but to think he is sure to be ready in sept to push a 300 lb DT for 60 times a game is a big gamble for a mid 1st. And I much rather have a guy like Jalon Walker who has the potential to be an all pro than a LT who may be Matt Light at his ceiling. If you dont go LT in the first I have no problem taking Grant, Ersery in the 2nd. Trappilo should not even be on the list as a RT. In the 3rd Belton. Hell, I think Donavan Jackson did very good at LT last year and Brown's diabetes does not scare me. My ffirst choice for LT next sept is DJ Humphries who should be fully revered from his ACL 18 months out.

Y'all seem to think that QB, LT and WR are the only positions on the team. Certainly, those who controlled the draft last year believed that.

Then and now, I would much rather have drafted DeJean than McConkey. The fact that we were getting an extra 4th was gravy.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy, Here's why I don't like to get into discussions with you. You don't seem to read my posts. How many times do I have to say that I DON'T have a problem with Campbell's arm length. I say it in EVERY post I have made on the subject. I make a point of saying it. And I said it CLEARLY in the post you quoted, but since it the comment conflicts with your point of view, you chose to simply ignore it and continue your repetitive argument as if it wasn't said.

My problem with Campbell's physical limitations is his WING-SPAN, which is significantly shorter (5-6 inches) than the other OT prospect. IIRC, it's been pointed out that ZERO long term LT's have had a wingspan that short over the last 2 and half decades. Again it's not by fractions of inches, it's by almost a half a foot.

What that means on the playing field is that a LOT of edge rusher will be able to get their hands on Campbell first and make blocking them harder. As I have said before, and you seem to ignore, Campbell's success in college is a credit to his athletic ability and effort. I have repeatedly stated that he might even become a decent NFL starter and would certainly be an improvement on our team.

BUT his upside is limited by his physical limitation of his WING-SPAN, not his arm length. He is unlikely to be a bust, just not an elite LT in the league. So if you want to select a draft pick at #4, whose ceiling is being a top 15-20 LT, that's your choice, but I would rather choose someone at that spot who offers a higher ceiling even if it isn't a LT

So buddy, please read my posts more carefully in the future, so we don't run into these confusions. The point is. is Campbell worth the #4 pick or our we over drafting based on need.

Of course I am reading your posts. I am referring to arm length and wing span as the same topic.
If you want to convince me, please explain how wingspan affects a tackled ability to block. It’s a non-issue to me. There are no cases where a LTs distance to reach out to his maximum affects his play, unless giving FB him a better opportunity to get called for holding.

Wingspan doesn’t affect “getting your hands on him” you are conflating that with arm length, which again is the difference of knuckle. No one blocks with their arms extended parallel to the ground.

Elite tackles are elite because of agility, technique, strength, determination and effort, intelligence and grit, not how far they can reach for the dinner rolls.
Again if you can show me a specific example of a liability in blocking created by how far you can reach horizontally you would have a chance to convince me.

What amazes me is that you think you can distinguish a #4 ceiling from a #15-20. Have you ever been wrong about a player? Do you slot them 1 to 250 in exact order of who turns out best every year?
If you select the player that has the 15th best career out the entire class at #4 you have probably done better than most #4 picks.

4 of the last 6 were Anthony Richardson, Andrew Thomas, Kyle Pitts and Clellin Ferrel.

 

[Ring 6]

Consensus mock has Campbell at 4, Membou at 7, Banks at 10 so going to 12-15 might leave you with Josh Simmons, with a massive injury question, and someone who might not be ready for the start of the season. Maybe Banks then slips if you trade out of 4 but Banks tape at LT is much worse than Campbell.

That move down assume you rank the top 4-5 tackles somewhat equally. That is highly unlikely. With a weak LT draft, why not just take the guy you think is the best? If none of them are good enough then just draft Ersery in the 2nd, move up slightly if you have to.

All reports are Pats love Campbell and love him as a LT. If you don't feel that way about anyone else then why trade down to take a weaker prospect in your #1 position of need? Especially since trade downs are being offered 70 cents on the dollar this year?

If you think those 4 will be gone by 12-15 then trade back to 10ish.
Simmons is actually my first choice.
And yes I do have the top 4 close enough that any one of them plus a 2nd round pick is better than the others.
And of course if the Patriots have him far above the others they should just take him.
The 70 cents on the dollar is something you just made up with nothing to support it, by the way.