* Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? *

[Off The Grid]

I like Jordan a lot, but I am concerned that he is indifferent when playing the run and that will not fly with BB.

I think Kerrigan is exactly what we need on the outside, a guy that can play the run and get pressure on the QB. Consistent pressure on the QB will help our 3rd down defense tremendously.

However if a stud 3-4 DE should suddenly appear, I would bump that player to 1A on my draft board.

Unfortunately I do not see any in this draft.

You really need to watch some tape of Nick Fairley, dude.

 

[Peachhead]

JJ Watt from Wisconsin is also really high on my list. I'll bet by draft time he's considered a top 15 guy. So if we can't get Fairly I'd be very happy with JJ Watt at our 1a spot.

 

[Off The Grid]

JJ Watt from Wisconsin is also really high on my list. I'll bet by draft time he's considered a top 15 guy. So if we can't get Fairly I'd be very happy with JJ Watt at our 1a spot.

Heh! We've both got Fairley as #1 and Watt as #2?? Cool.

I've got some notions about where those two cats will eventually get hit, but it's a long explanation, so I'll spare y'all, for now.

Nick Fairley is GODZILLA.

Like I said in the other thread: If we failed to get every other one of my Binkies, this year, but still landed Nick Fairley, I would consider the Draft a spectacular success.

 

[UofApatsfan]

Things have changed a little since when I posted my original top 6 pick wish list so I might as well post a revised one. Oakland looked like they might be giving a top 10 pick at the time, and now we'd prolly be thrilled if Oakland gets us a top 15 pick. Revised semi-realistic dream draft:

Pick 1A: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami*. The front 7 looked fine against Pittsburgh's patchwork O-line, but after Peyton Hillis ran everything over last week, IMO a consistent presence on the D-line next to Wilfork is still as big a need as anything. Nick Fairley is a possibility but Bailey is in the middle of his 2nd great season, Fairley was nothing prior to this year, Bailey seems like the safer pick with just as much potential. Fairley might be the flavor of the month guy who ends up being a huge top 10 bust (Vernon Gholston for example).
*If his stock falls enough and he's still available I would say Robert Quinn and address DE later, but since that's unlikely Bailey is the pick. If he is available though, it would be very hard to pass him up. He's potentially the 270 pound OLB they haven't had since McGinest.

Pick 1B: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU. Pre-Pollard, Brady's fearlessness in the pocket and ability to sidestep edge pressure made the lack of speed at tackle a not-so-big deal when they had to protect against speed rushers. As good as Brady still is, he isn't as fearless as he once was, and he isn't as good as sidestepping pressure as he once was. Vollmer was projected to be the future left tackle, but he, like Light, struggles against speed. Light isn't gonna be around much longer, and Kazcur is not a worthwhile starter, so they are going to need to address tackle anyway. Since going through the AFC means limiting the pass rush from guys like Suggs, Freeney and Pace, Barksdale is worth a 1st rounder as the guy athletic enough to block them. On top of Barksdale's athleticism, he doesn't get enough credit for his polish and technique. He'd be ready to step in immediately

Pick 2A: Jeremy Beal, OLB, OU. There are higher rated 3-4 OLB prospects who are projected to be available with this pick, but we all know that having the size and strength to set the edge in this system is extremely important. I haven't watched Von Miller but he seems like someone who is great at getting pressure with his speed but is too undersized to be consistent against the run. Watching UCLA play Arizona, Hakeem Ayers was horrible at setting the edge and preventing plays from getting to the outside. At the rate he's going it might be a pipe dream to think Beal will be available in the 2nd round, but aside from Quinn he fits the system more than any other 3-4 OLBs.

Pick 2B: Deunta Williams, FS, UNC. Thanks to a suspension, Williams went from being a guy who could sneak into the 1st round with a good year to someone who could be available here. Has the size (6'2") we don't have at the safety position and has great range in coverage. I believed in Meriweather and was sure this team shouldn't use another top 2 round pick in the secondary, but if he's still making the mistakes he is, it's not gonna get better. We need a free safety who provides good over the top help, can keep the offense in front of him, and can sometimes pick up the tight end in coverage.

Pick 3A: Kristofer O'Dowd, C, USC. Basically as mentioned previously. Is the center in an offense that loves multiple TE formations and has all the physical tools. Give him a year to learn the offense and hopefully in that time he gets over his injuries that are preventing him from being a much higher pick.

Pick 3B: Terrance Toliver, WR, LSU. LSU has tons of talent at receiver but Jordan Jefferson is one of the worst pocket passers in college football. Terrance Toliver's draft value is way lower because of that. Coming out of high school he was the #1 WR recruit ahead of guys like Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Arrelius Benn, Leonard Hankerson and Greg Little, he has enough talent where its worth a 3rd rounder to see what he can do with a real quarterback.

Round 4: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor. You can never have too much depth at D-line. Taylor will never be an every down player in the NFL because of his weight, and while he doesn't have near as much talent as Mt. Cody, Baltimore has shown ways to use guys like Cody and Taylor sporadically to get players rest and provide size at certain times.

Round 5: Andrew Jackson, G, Fresno State. Doesn't get much notoriety in the WAC, but the one Fresno State game I watched he got great push on every running play and was also great as pulling when required. It's hard to tell how his dominance in the WAC transfers to the NFL, but it's worth a 5th rounder.

Round 6: Owen Marecic, FB/ILB, Stanford. This is the kind of versatility you want to fill your roster out with. He's the lead blocker in a very good power running game that gets extremely overshadowed by Andrew Luck. While I don't know how he is on special teams, a guy with his work ethic, IQ and motor seems like a perfect fit on special teams. When you watch this guy play, you want him on your team.

 

[SteveBelichick]

Great looking crew, Brother Steve!!

Editor's Note: You'd probably have to go a LOT earlier to get Carter, but you could probably pick up Morris a lot LATER, so it works out!!

Thanks, brother OTG! Glad you liked it.
I wouldn't mind drafting Carter at the 3rd, really. I have high hopes for this kid.

It's too early for me to have names but I like your concept completely. I know we'll make trade but with two 1, two 2, two 3, if we were to keep them I want, not in this order, a WR, RB, OLB, DE, two OL. And you provided that for me, thanks

At the end of the day I think we may get Ingram at 1a, I don't think he'll go too high as he's not a freak athletically. We are in desperate need of playmakers on offense, I'd love to get Ingram at 1a, one of the WR you list at 1b then hit OL, DE, OLB with the next four picks. Although I would be happy to wait on RB as you did if the RB class gets deeper as the draft approaches - as of now it seems a little on the weak side and I REALLY want a good RB.

Oh, you're too glad. Glad you liked it.
Ingram is my prospect too, but I really doubt the Dolphins will left him on the board if given the chance. Still, Leshoure looks to be a great talent, and a very-above-average pass catcher. If his stock doesn't rise into 1rst round talk I wouldn't mind getting him with 2A or 2B, maybe trade up like they did with the Gronk. But if Ingram's there, take him, don't even think about it. Ingram-BJGE-Woodhead will give 31 teams something to think about. Oh, and don't forget about the guy with three rings that throws the ball. It's almost overkill, really.
Also, I think the early return of Mankins and his fiery play of the Steelers' game could change his mind, and he could sign a long term deal and stay in New England. That would be great, and could make those 2 top OL (that they NEED to draft) develop and learn without that much pressure of having to protect the franchise.
Right now my wish list stands with a deep threat as the main need, closely followed by DL and OLB. Something I'd like to get in this draft is also a Wright-like player, a DE-DT who can rush the QB from the Nickel 4-2. Most of the 3rd down pressure in Belichick's latest schemes seem to come the DTs of the Nickel 4-2, so upgrading the position looks like a must to me.

Things have changed a little since when I posted my original top 6 pick wish list so I might as well post a revised one. Oakland looked like they might be giving a top 10 pick at the time, and now we'd prolly be thrilled if Oakland gets us a top 15 pick. Revised semi-realistic dream draft:

Pick 1A: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami*. The front 7 looked fine against Pittsburgh's patchwork O-line, but after Peyton Hillis ran everything over last week, IMO a consistent presence on the D-line next to Wilfork is still as big a need as anything. Nick Fairley is a possibility but Bailey is in the middle of his 2nd great season, Fairley was nothing prior to this year, Bailey seems like the safer pick with just as much potential. Fairley might be the flavor of the month guy who ends up being a huge top 10 bust (Vernon Gholston for example).
*If his stock falls enough and he's still available I would say Robert Quinn and address DE later, but since that's unlikely Bailey is the pick. If he is available though, it would be very hard to pass him up. He's potentially the 270 pound OLB they haven't had since McGinest.

Pick 1B: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU. Pre-Pollard, Brady's fearlessness in the pocket and ability to sidestep edge pressure made the lack of speed at tackle a not-so-big deal when they had to protect against speed rushers. As good as Brady still is, he isn't as fearless as he once was, and he isn't as good as sidestepping pressure as he once was. Vollmer was projected to be the future left tackle, but he, like Light, struggles against speed. Light isn't gonna be around much longer, and Kazcur is not a worthwhile starter, so they are going to need to address tackle anyway. Since going through the AFC means limiting the pass rush from guys like Suggs, Freeney and Pace, Barksdale is worth a 1st rounder as the guy athletic enough to block them. On top of Barksdale's athleticism, he doesn't get enough credit for his polish and technique. He'd be ready to step in immediately

Pick 2A: Jeremy Beal, OLB, OU. There are higher rated 3-4 OLB prospects who are projected to be available with this pick, but we all know that having the size and strength to set the edge in this system is extremely important. I haven't watched Von Miller but he seems like someone who is great at getting pressure with his speed but is too undersized to be consistent against the run. Watching UCLA play Arizona, Hakeem Ayers was horrible at setting the edge and preventing plays from getting to the outside. At the rate he's going it might be a pipe dream to think Beal will be available in the 2nd round, but aside from Quinn he fits the system more than any other 3-4 OLBs.

Pick 2B: Deunta Williams, FS, UNC. Thanks to a suspension, Williams went from being a guy who could sneak into the 1st round with a good year to someone who could be available here. Has the size (6'2") we don't have at the safety position and has great range in coverage. I believed in Meriweather and was sure this team shouldn't use another top 2 round pick in the secondary, but if he's still making the mistakes he is, it's not gonna get better. We need a free safety who provides good over the top help, can keep the offense in front of him, and can sometimes pick up the tight end in coverage.

Pick 3A: Kristofer O'Dowd, C, USC. Basically as mentioned previously. Is the center in an offense that loves multiple TE formations and has all the physical tools. Give him a year to learn the offense and hopefully in that time he gets over his injuries that are preventing him from being a much higher pick.

Pick 3B: Terrance Toliver, WR, LSU. LSU has tons of talent at receiver but Jordan Jefferson is one of the worst pocket passers in college football. Terrance Toliver's draft value is way lower because of that. Coming out of high school he was the #1 WR recruit ahead of guys like Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Arrelius Benn, Leonard Hankerson and Greg Little, he has enough talent where its worth a 3rd rounder to see what he can do with a real quarterback.

Round 4: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor. You can never have too much depth at D-line. Taylor will never be an every down player in the NFL because of his weight, and while he doesn't have near as much talent as Mt. Cody, Baltimore has shown ways to use guys like Cody and Taylor sporadically to get players rest and provide size at certain times.

Round 5: Andrew Jackson, G, Fresno State. Doesn't get much notoriety in the WAC, but the one Fresno State game I watched he got great push on every running play and was also great as pulling when required. It's hard to tell how his dominance in the WAC transfers to the NFL, but it's worth a 5th rounder.

Round 6: Owen Marecic, FB/ILB, Stanford. This is the kind of versatility you want to fill your roster out with. He's the lead blocker in a very good power running game that gets extremely overshadowed by Andrew Luck. While I don't know how he is on special teams, a guy with his work ethic, IQ and motor seems like a perfect fit on special teams. When you watch this guy play, you want him on your team.

Great mock, I support the way you think. Really, really good.
I like your Bailey pick, but I'm not sure he has the football smarts and character Belichick looks for. If he is sold on Bailey I'm all for it, but I wouldn't be surprised if he just ignores him all together.
I also think tackle at 1B is great, but I don't see the value. Barksdale's mains issue, IMO, is the lack of a killer instinct. I think getting a top RB (Ingram, Leshoure) would be the better way of getting some pressure off Brady. Just look how the play action worked yesterday.
Beal is my pick. I'll be thrilled if he ends up being a Patriot. Looks like a Belichick pick too.
Deunta is a baller, and could provide the ball-hawking FS this defense needs. Draft him and trade Meriweather for a 5th rounder or something on draft day. Just like Ellis Hobbs. He's not worth his roster spot or starting position, IMO. I don't like his attitude or his dumb mistakes.
O'Dowd is a good plan for 2012, nice idea.
Toliver, Taylor and Jackson are nice picks. I'd try to get someone for the receiving corps before 3B, but I can't argue with your pick. Nice choice.
Marecic has 'Patriot' written all over him. Hopes he gets drafted.

 

[UofApatsfan]

Great mock, I support the way you think. Really, really good.
I like your Bailey pick, but I'm not sure he has the football smarts and character Belichick looks for. If he is sold on Bailey I'm all for it, but I wouldn't be surprised if he just ignores him all together.
I also think tackle at 1B is great, but I don't see the value. Barksdale's mains issue, IMO, is the lack of a killer instinct. I think getting a top RB (Ingram, Leshoure) would be the better way of getting some pressure off Brady. Just look how the play action worked yesterday.
Beal is my pick. I'll be thrilled if he ends up being a Patriot. Looks like a Belichick pick too.
Deunta is a baller, and could provide the ball-hawking FS this defense needs. Draft him and trade Meriweather for a 5th rounder or something on draft day. Just like Ellis Hobbs. He's not worth his roster spot or starting position, IMO. I don't like his attitude or his dumb mistakes.
O'Dowd is a good plan for 2012, nice idea.
Toliver, Taylor and Jackson are nice picks. I'd try to get someone for the receiving corps before 3B, but I can't argue with your pick. Nice choice.
Marecic has 'Patriot' written all over him. Hopes he gets drafted.

Thanks for the props. Its a real shame with Meriweather given how good he started to look at the beginning of last year, but he shouldn't be making these mistakes as a 4th year player, you make a great comparison with Ellis Hobbs. Chung being able to play at the line of scrimmage and Deunta being able to focus on coverage would be a nasty combo.

As for waiting forever to address receiver, I'm just very hesitant to add a talent like Green, Baldwin Floyd or Jones after having Moss hurt the offense overall. The receiving group of Toliver/Tate/Branch/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez would easily be more talented than what they had in 01, 03 and 04. The one problem not having a stud #1 leads to is never having a chance on 3rd and long, but Toliver is a beast on 3rd down in the LSU games I've watched this year.

 

[Off The Grid]

Things have changed a little since when I posted my original top 6 pick wish list so I might as well post a revised one. Oakland looked like they might be giving a top 10 pick at the time, and now we'd prolly be thrilled if Oakland gets us a top 15 pick. Revised semi-realistic dream draft:

Pick 1A: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami*.

The front 7 looked fine against Pittsburgh's patchwork O-line, but after Peyton Hillis ran everything over last week, IMO a consistent presence on the D-line next to Wilfork is still as big a need as anything. Nick Fairley is a possibility but Bailey is in the middle of his 2nd great season, Fairley was nothing prior to this year, Bailey seems like the safer pick with just as much potential. Fairley might be the flavor of the month guy who ends up being a huge top 10 bust (Vernon Gholston for example).
*If his stock falls enough and he's still available I would say Robert Quinn and address DE later, but since that's unlikely Bailey is the pick. If he is available though, it would be very hard to pass him up. He's potentially the 270 pound OLB they haven't had since McGinest.

Pick 1B: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU.

Pre-Pollard, Brady's fearlessness in the pocket and ability to sidestep edge pressure made the lack of speed at tackle a not-so-big deal when they had to protect against speed rushers. As good as Brady still is, he isn't as fearless as he once was, and he isn't as good as sidestepping pressure as he once was. Vollmer was projected to be the future left tackle, but he, like Light, struggles against speed. Light isn't gonna be around much longer, and Kazcur is not a worthwhile starter, so they are going to need to address tackle anyway. Since going through the AFC means limiting the pass rush from guys like Suggs, Freeney and Pace, Barksdale is worth a 1st rounder as the guy athletic enough to block them. On top of Barksdale's athleticism, he doesn't get enough credit for his polish and technique. He'd be ready to step in immediately

Pick 2A: Jeremy Beal, OLB, OU.

There are higher rated 3-4 OLB prospects who are projected to be available with this pick, but we all know that having the size and strength to set the edge in this system is extremely important. I haven't watched Von Miller but he seems like someone who is great at getting pressure with his speed but is too undersized to be consistent against the run. Watching UCLA play Arizona, Hakeem Ayers was horrible at setting the edge and preventing plays from getting to the outside. At the rate he's going it might be a pipe dream to think Beal will be available in the 2nd round, but aside from Quinn he fits the system more than any other 3-4 OLBs.

Pick 2B: Deunta Williams, FS, UNC.

Thanks to a suspension, Williams went from being a guy who could sneak into the 1st round with a good year to someone who could be available here. Has the size (6'2") we don't have at the safety position and has great range in coverage. I believed in Meriweather and was sure this team shouldn't use another top 2 round pick in the secondary, but if he's still making the mistakes he is, it's not gonna get better. We need a free safety who provides good over the top help, can keep the offense in front of him, and can sometimes pick up the tight end in coverage.

Pick 3A: Kristofer O'Dowd, C, USC.

Basically as mentioned previously. Is the center in an offense that loves multiple TE formations and has all the physical tools. Give him a year to learn the offense and hopefully in that time he gets over his injuries that are preventing him from being a much higher pick.

Pick 3B: Terrance Toliver, WR, LSU.

LSU has tons of talent at receiver but Jordan Jefferson is one of the worst pocket passers in college football. Terrance Toliver's draft value is way lower because of that. Coming out of high school he was the #1 WR recruit ahead of guys like Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Arrelius Benn, Leonard Hankerson and Greg Little, he has enough talent where its worth a 3rd rounder to see what he can do with a real quarterback.

Round 4: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor.

You can never have too much depth at D-line. Taylor will never be an every down player in the NFL because of his weight, and while he doesn't have near as much talent as Mt. Cody, Baltimore has shown ways to use guys like Cody and Taylor sporadically to get players rest and provide size at certain times.

Round 5: Andrew Jackson, G, Fresno State.

Doesn't get much notoriety in the WAC, but the one Fresno State game I watched he got great push on every running play and was also great as pulling when required. It's hard to tell how his dominance in the WAC transfers to the NFL, but it's worth a 5th rounder.

Round 6: Owen Marecic, FB/ILB, Stanford.

This is the kind of versatility you want to fill your roster out with. He's the lead blocker in a very good power running game that gets extremely overshadowed by Andrew Luck. While I don't know how he is on special teams, a guy with his work ethic, IQ and motor seems like a perfect fit on special teams. When you watch this guy play, you want him on your team.

Beauty!! Love the picks of Phil Taylor and ~ especially ~ Owen Marecic, who is my official Late Round Binkie!!

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Thanks for the props. Its a real shame with Meriweather given how good he started to look at the beginning of last year, but he shouldn't be making these mistakes as a 4th year player, you make a great comparison with Ellis Hobbs. Chung being able to play at the line of scrimmage and Deunta being able to focus on coverage would be a nasty combo.

As for waiting forever to address receiver, I'm just very hesitant to add a talent like Green, Baldwin Floyd or Jones after having Moss hurt the offense overall. The receiving group of Toliver/Tate/Branch/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez would easily be more talented than what they had in 01, 03 and 04. The one problem not having a stud #1 leads to is never having a chance on 3rd and long, but Toliver is a beast on 3rd down in the LSU games I've watched this year.

I agree that WR's are very difficult to project. Unless Green or Jones fall into our lap, I would pass on using a 1st on Bladwin or Floyd.

Chung seems to be able to bring the entire secondary together while Merriweather struggles in zone coverage. I am sure Manning is more than aware of that fact for this week's game.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

You really need to watch some tape of Nick Fairley, dude.

My team has done two Auburn games this year and to me, Fairley is a pure three technique. Warren Sapp wanna be.

He does not read, has no gap discipline and is purely an up the field rusher.

Not sure Fairley works as a five technique.

 

[SteveBelichick]

Thanks for the props. Its a real shame with Meriweather given how good he started to look at the beginning of last year, but he shouldn't be making these mistakes as a 4th year player, you make a great comparison with Ellis Hobbs. Chung being able to play at the line of scrimmage and Deunta being able to focus on coverage would be a nasty combo.

As for waiting forever to address receiver, I'm just very hesitant to add a talent like Green, Baldwin Floyd or Jones after having Moss hurt the offense overall. The receiving group of Toliver/Tate/Branch/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez would easily be more talented than what they had in 01, 03 and 04. The one problem not having a stud #1 leads to is never having a chance on 3rd and long, but Toliver is a beast on 3rd down in the LSU games I've watched this year.

I liked your mock so much, and gave so much attention to your comments, to be fair, that I changed my own mock. Here's the new one:

1A - Heyward, Ohio St, DL
I like Dareus/Farley/Bailey better, but I bet they won't be there. So the Patriots go to the next guy who, in my opnion, could be a better fit in the scheme. A great run defender, Heyward just has to learn some pass rush moves to be complete - and if Peppers can teach that to 7th rounders, he surely can to top-notch talent like Heyward.

1B - Beal, Oklahoma, OLB
My same old pick, Cunningham's new friend. I think it's important to see that versatility is huge for this new Belichickean defense, and Beal provides that. I think he's more proven at 3-4 OLB than, say, Quinn or Bowers. He might not be the impact player, but we at least have seen him dropping into coverage. And then again, he has the work ethic to make it work.

2A - Leshoure, Illinois, RB
As much as I like Ingram, he won't be there at the Raiders pick, so I have to live with that. So going with 2A towards the next best option is a great idea, and Leshoure can run and catch. He's an exciting player to help BJGE and Woodstock.

2B - Wisniewski, Penn St, G/C
He might not be here at 2B. In fact, he should be gone. Still, I'd trade a pick to move up and grab him (just like they did with the Gronk) because the guy is the typical Patriot linemen, and can play both G and C. He'll be the second Penn State offensive linemen in the roster, so it's possible.

3A - Young, Boise St, WR
I really like Young. After a suspension he really pulled it together and even became a team leader and a lead-by-example guy at that. I used to have Johnson-Koulianos from Iowa at this spot, but I believe he's too much of a media needy guy to Belichick's taste. Still, Bill has always talked about how much he likes Ochocinco, so he could draft DJK and live with it. I doubt it, but it could happen. Anyway, both are great deep threats with lots of potential, and I think that's what the Patriots should look at a 3A, a guy to be what Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson never were.

3B - Morris, Temple, T/G
4A - Carter, Fresno St, OLB
5A - Gilbert, Florida, T/G
6A - Carpenter, Alabama, T/G
7A - Marecic, Stanford, FB/LB
These other picks are all the same, but I dropped Morris from 3A to 3B and raised Carter from 6A to 4A. I really like those prospects, and three of them are from programs Belichick has inside info (Fresno St, Florida, Alabama) and the other two are great fits. They give more help to the pass rush, help rebuild the offensive line by giving Scar some new toys to play with, and close the deal with a versatyle player from a good program.

 

[Off The Grid]

My team has done two Auburn games this year and to me, Fairley is a pure three technique. Warren Sapp wanna be.

He does not read, has no gap discipline and is purely an up the field rusher.

Not sure Fairley works as a five technique.

All right, sir. Fair enough.

 

[patsfaninpa]

My team has done two Auburn games this year and to me, Fairley is a pure three technique. Warren Sapp wanna be.

He does not read, has no gap discipline and is purely an up the field rusher.

Not sure Fairley works as a five technique.

Not many college teams run a two-gap scheme. It's not really needed against a spread offense. Which is what most college teams are. He might just be doing what their coaches want him to. Get upfield. Rush the passer and disrupt running lanes. I feel his size allows him to become a two-gap player with the right coaching. And, when we go to nickel/dime packages. We don't play two-gap either. Defensing the spread is going to bring more athletic players to all positions. Won't be as dramatic in the pros as college. Because you still have to be able to stop the run. But, Fairley shouldn't be written off because he's not playing a two gap scheme in college. We probably won't get a crack at him anyway. But, he's got to be in our board.

 

[SirApropos]

At this point though the odds of Fairley being available when the Pats make the Raiders pick are slim. He will probably go in the Top 10 if he has a good combine so unless we trade up (unlikely) he will not be availble in the 15-22 range where the pick will probably end up.

 

[Off The Grid]

Not many college teams run a two-gap scheme. It's not really needed against a spread offense. Which is what most college teams are. He might just be doing what their coaches want him to. Get upfield. Rush the passer and disrupt running lanes. I feel his size allows him to become a two-gap player with the right coaching. And, when we go to nickel/dime packages. We don't play two-gap either. Defensing the spread is going to bring more athletic players to all positions. Won't be as dramatic in the pros as college. Because you still have to be able to stop the run. But, Fairley shouldn't be written off because he's not playing a two gap scheme in college. We probably won't get a crack at him anyway. But, he's got to be in our board.

Nicely put.

As most Colleges don't run our Scheme, we can't afford to pass up a guy simply because he hasn't had the chance to demonstrate his ability to play in it: We must make a judgment call.

At this point though the odds of Fairley being available when the Pats make the Raiders pick are slim. He will probably go in the Top 10 if he has a good combine so unless we trade up (unlikely) he will not be availble in the 15-22 range where the pick will probably end up.

I actually disagree on both points.

1 ~ As I previously predicted, Fairley is continuing to skyrocket all the way to the Top 5 on some boards...But it doesn't follow that he stays there. Once the momentum from his spectacular senior season has died down, and the next 5 months of analysis and reflection play out, I predict that a lot of GM's will start to question the wisdom of taking a kid, with only one effective year on his resume, ahead of all the richly talented Defensive Ends coming out who have a more substantial body of work to inspire confidence with.

Furthermore, there are an enormous number of High Grade Defensive Ends coming out, this year. Because of that, it seems very likely, to me, that High Grade Prospects at other positions ~ where there are fewer High Grade Prospects available ~ are likely to see themselves snatched up quickly, while supplies last.

If Fairley ends up being the 4th or 5th End drafted ~ or 4th or 5th Tackle ~ as I suspect he will be, then I can easily see him shocking most draft fans by dropping all the way to the mid 20's...where it wouldn't take too much for us to move up from #32 to snag him!!

2 ~ The Raiders have indeed played very well. However, they've been doing so against a soft schedule, one which now becomes dramatically tougher.

Only 1 game currently separates #11 from #22 in the Draft.

Only 2 games separate #6 from #22.

And the Raiders are about to Run the Gauntlet.

They still have very real Top 10 potential.

 

[Metaphors]

2 ~ The Raiders have indeed played very well. However, they've been doing so against a soft schedule, one which now becomes dramatically tougher.

Only 1 game currently separates #11 from #22 in the Draft.

Only 2 games separate #6 from #22.

And the Raiders are about to Run the Gauntlet.

They still have very real Top 10 potential.

Absolutely. The Raiders are 1-3 on the road, getting spanked by TEN and dropping games to poor teams in SF and ARZ. Only the DEN debacle is on the plus side.

Now the Raiders have to go to:
PIT - Think they are anxious to take out their frustrations from the Pats game?
SD - Revenge game that SD will probably need to make the playoffs.
JAX - Jags playing well and cross-country trip.
KC - Not a short trip and KC might be playing for a playoff spot.

I would expect OAK to drop all 4 of these games. Of the 3 home games, they have a good chance in 2 of them (MIA and DEN) but should struggle with an IND team that will at least be playing for seeding...and maybe fighting for their playoff lives.

So IMO that leaves OAK with an 8-8 ceiling, a 6-10 floor and 7-9 likely. Based on last years final results, that puts their range between #9 and #17 with the sweet spot being #10-#12. Not as good as I was expecting but not bad considering the talent at the top of this draft class.

 

[SirApropos]

Here's my current mock through 5 rounds. I think our 6th round pick (from New Orleans) will go to KC for Jarrod Page. It was conditional and since he has been hurt and not playing I think it will drop from a 5th to a 6th.

1A. Brandon Harris - CB Miami
Considering the fact that BB has never taken an OLB in the 1st round because they have a high bust rate and that he also generally selects three down players this early, I think Harris will be the pick if available. Harris is a good all around corner that can play both the run and shut down rolls and can get off blocks. McCourty has been better than expected this year and Bodden is due back next year but every other CB has issues (Butler – Regression, Wilhite – Average CB, Arrington – ST guy). Butler will get one more year to make the roster and it would be great if he could get back to his rookie form but another CB needs to be added.

1B. Stefan Wisniewski – C/G Penn State
Center of the future but can play Guard until then and replace Stephen Neal if he retires or Mankins if he moves on. Last year the draft class was used to bring youth to the Defense (3rd youngest in the league). This year the offense gets its youth injection starting in the trenches. The OL prospects from last year got picked up by other teams after final cuts (Larsen – TB, Welch – Min) so the cupboard is a little bare. Connolly has shown that he can be a starter but I think he would be better utilized as the main OL Backup. Levoir and Ojinnaka are journeyman type guys that could use upgrading. Ohrnberger (Penn State) and Wendell are still developing.

2A. Mikel LeShoure – RB Illinois
LeShoure is the potential breakout RB of the 2011 draft class and the big back (6-1, 230lbs) that we need to get the run game up to snuff. Has nice combination of power and speed. Since Ingram will be long gone before the 1A pick now this will be a nice substitute at the top of round 2. Lawfirm and Woody have carried the load this year along with two Methuselah’s (Morris, Taylor) that won’t be back next year. LeShoure and a value free agent back should sustain the running game for years to come.

2B. Jared Crick – DE/DT Nebraska
Versatile DL that can play in both the 4-3 and 3-4 which BB likes. Hasn’t played up to his 2009 standards (12.5 TFL, 9.5 Sacks) without N. Suh as his side or else would have been an easy top 15 pick. Fortunately the Pats have one of the best NT in the league in Wilfork to take pressure off him. So I think this is a very good value pick and could have high returns if Deaderick and Brace continue to improve making the DL rotation a strength and not a weakness.

3A. Rahim Moore – FS UCLA
Moore had 10 picks in 2009. He’s regressed a little this year which will drop him a little in the draft but has the talent to succeed in the league given some time. Fortunately the Pats are loaded at S so he should have that time to develop. Chung has made great strides this year and should anchor the SS position for years to come. Meriweather’s contract is up after 2011 so he may need to be replaced eventually. Sanders has helped out this year mainly due to all the injuries to the other Safeties but he is scheduled to earn $2.8 Mil in 2011 which is high for a backup. There are still questions about Page, Brown, Barrett, Lockett and McGowan so making a pick for the future here would be smart.

3B. Steven Friday DE/OLB – Virginia Tech
Has good burst and speed off the edge but also can drop into coverage and has the range the Pats are looking for. Finally getting a chance to show his skills this year and hasn’t disappointed. Had good game against top LT candidate Castonzo from Boston College (2 Sacks). Has cooled off a little after collecting 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles early but that is because he’s been drawing double teams once teams recognized his speed. Will be 25 yrs old his Rookie season.

4. Clint Boling – G/T Georgia
Primarily a Guard but can also play LT. Adds needed depth to the OL and could be an eventually replacement for Neal/Light. Fast for his size. Good prospect for Scar to mold.


5. DeAndre Brown – WR Southern Miss
Somewhat of an injury concern after a leg injury but so was Brandon Tate. If you are looking for a tall (6-6), fast (4.48) and big (239lbs) receiver you can’t get much better. Depending on how Taylor Price develops this offseason I could see the Pats spending a mid round pick on a high upside guy like Brown.

 

[Metaphors]

1A. Brandon Harris - CB Miami
1B. Stefan Wisniewski – C/G Penn State
2A. Mikel LeShoure – RB Illinois
2B. Jared Crick – DE/DT Nebraska
3A. Rahim Moore – FS UCLA
3B. Steven Friday DE/OLB – Virginia Tech
4. Clint Boling – G/T Georgia
5. DeAndre Brown – WR Southern Miss

I actually like the direction you are taking, but think you could do better without radically changing...

Do you see 1A being in the 20's or do you like Harris that much? I see 1A being closer to #10 when all is said and done. If you like Harris, you can probably get him at 1B (with Aaron Williams/Ras-I Dowling being the backup plan if Harris goes earlier). Slide Wisniewski to 2A and you could have something like:

1A - BA front 7 (Quinn, Dareus, Fairley, Bailey, Bowers, Clayborn, Heyward)
1B - Harris
2A - Wisniewski

There are too many top guys to not get someone on the front 7 on the 1st day. Still likely you can end up with your top 2 targets as well.

2B - Crick
3A - Moore

No complaints with these or your remaining picks, though Boling is unlikely to last into the 4th round or even to 3B. Friday is a reach with 3B considering he didn't get meaningful snaps until last year and didn't start until this year. May only be a one-trick pony at this level as well. So swap these 2 and hope Boling slips a little:

3B - Boling
4 - Friday
5 - Brown

Crick + another elite guy for the front 7.
Wisniewski and Boling to bolster the OLine.
Harris and Moore injecting some needed ball hawking to the D backfield.
Brown would be a nice big target or if you really want a RB, Mario Fannin has a similar makeup to LeShoure and can be had much later.

Not bad at all.

 

[SirApropos]

Do you see 1A being in the 20's or do you like Harris that much? I see 1A being closer to #10 when all is said and done.

I see the pick being in the late teens (17-18). I think the Raiders can easily be 8-8 or 9-7 and just miss out on the playoffs. They have Miami at home in 2 weeks and the Fins are hurting right now and will be on the west coast. They have already crushed the Broncos once and get them at home now. The Jags and Chiefs are the wildcards since they are up and down evey week. So that's 2-4 wins I can see happen. Other than the opening game against Tenn it's not like the Raiders have been blown out this year. They had their Bye week at a good time of the year to make a final push and the AFC West is wide open.

 

[Off The Grid]

Absolutely. The Raiders are 1-3 on the road, getting spanked by TEN and dropping games to poor teams in SF and ARZ. Only the DEN debacle is on the plus side.

Now the Raiders have to go to:
PIT - Think they are anxious to take out their frustrations from the Pats game?
SD - Revenge game that SD will probably need to make the playoffs.
JAX - Jags playing well and cross-country trip.
KC - Not a short trip and KC might be playing for a playoff spot.

I would expect OAK to drop all 4 of these games. Of the 3 home games, they have a good chance in 2 of them (MIA and DEN) but should struggle with an IND team that will at least be playing for seeding...and maybe fighting for their playoff lives.

So IMO that leaves OAK with an 8-8 ceiling, a 6-10 floor and 7-9 likely. Based on last years final results, that puts their range between #9 and #17 with the sweet spot being #10-#12. Not as good as I was expecting but not bad considering the talent at the top of this draft class.

I see the pick being in the late teens (17-18). I think the Raiders can easily be 8-8 or 9-7 and just miss out on the playoffs. They have Miami at home in 2 weeks and the Fins are hurting right now and will be on the west coast. They have already crushed the Broncos once and get them at home now. The Jags and Chiefs are the wildcards since they are up and down evey week. So that's 2-4 wins I can see happen. Other than the opening game against Tenn it's not like the Raiders have been blown out this year. They had their Bye week at a good time of the year to make a final push and the AFC West is wide open.

Ah!! Great Arguments for both positions...

With my unabashedly Red White and Blue Hued Glasses, I observe that the Raiders could ~ quite realistically ~ plummet all the way to #6, if they simply gain 2 games on all the "competition". And, indeed, ALL of the 3-6 teams ~ currently tied at #6-#10 ~ are showing signs of life.

FootBall is a very emotional game, and a few beat downs at the hands of the rough opponents, ahead, could very well lead to a lovely Death Spiral.

More realistically, a Perfect Storm is a rare thing: I find it more likely that they suffer a partial collapse, and end up dropping down into the middle of that tier, ending up about #8.

Considering their current position, that would be very cool.

Of course, the way they're playing now, and with the Steelers hurting up front, and the Fish having their own troubles, they could very well run it all the way to 7-4, in the next 10 days, bringing that pick up to unspeakable heights!!

In any case....Gooooooooooooooooo Steelers!!

 

[Snake Eyes]

* Sign Vincent Jackson

1a) Robert Quinn (I can dream, can't I?) - OLB
2) Allen Bailey - DE
2a) Mark Barron - S
2b) Clint Boling - G
3a) Ryan Winterswyk - OLB
4a) Ricky Stanzi/Nathan Enderle - QB
4b) Zane Taylor - C
5) Marcus Gilbert - T/G
6) Owen Marecic - FB
7) Da'Rel Scott - RB