Tom Brady - Projecting the Remaining Years

[mosslost]

I wouldn't discount stats completely. We would notice if Brady had an 85 passer rating though and as fans we would all be saying he is getting older now.

I am not so concerned how many TD's he throws going forward but I think we can count on about 30 TD's and less than 10 INTs going forward. I will be looking at the number of picks he throws as a major indicator that he is starting to slip.

>>count on about 30 TD's and less than 10 INTs going forward

I think this is a safe bet considering he just through 28 and 2 in just 12 games. Brady's mental dominance of the game and offense is off the charts. His biggest strengths are elements that actually improve the longer he plays. If he declines it will be a physical decline, and I think it may not begin noticeably for three more seasons. (based on nothing of course.. just that I have seen him get better and more clutch as he ages. And tougher too. Man he seems tough and clutch even when they lose, like the end of AFCCG @ Denver 15/16

 

[sb1]

I agree. Which, of course, is why I used other stats in my OP.

But even a collection of stats doesn't really tell you what's going on. Again, go back to the example I just gave. What collection of stats tells you, really, how a QB played in a given game?

Suppose, on the Pats' last TD in regulation, that when Brady hit White for a pass that White took down to the one yard line, that White had managed to break the tackle and score (like he did in OT). That would have counted as a TD for Brady, and would have made his final stat line (assuming everything else subsequently happened the same way) different.

From: 43-62 (69.4%), 466 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 95.2 rating
To: 43-62 (69.4%), 467 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.7 rating

So White breaking that one tackle (which would have been completely HIS effort, not Brady's), would have improved Brady's passer rating by 5.5 points.

True but then again maybe it wouldn't necessarily be all his effort. Maybe Brady throws it to a spot that lets White catch it at full speed in stride for the TD. Or... maybe Brady misses his throw but it happens to go to a spot that lets White catch it at full speed in stride for the TD. It's really hard to make that judgement on a team sport stat and maybe that's why people are trying and failing to come up with these SABR like metrics for football. It doesn't work for a pure team sport.

Even the YAC thing... people use it as a knock against the QB or as an accomplishment all on the receiver and I don't think that always has to be true. A QB can hit a guy in a spot that lets him get YAC easily instead of working to break tackles, etc.

 

[ivanvamp]

True but then again maybe it wouldn't necessarily be all his effort. Maybe Brady throws it to a spot that lets White catch it at full speed in stride for the TD. Or... maybe Brady misses his throw but it happens to go to a spot that lets White catch it at full speed in stride for the TD. It's really hard to make that judgement on a team sport stat and maybe that's why people are trying and failing to come up with these SABR like metrics for football. It doesn't work for a pure team sport.

Even the YAC thing... people use it as a knock against the QB or as an accomplishment all on the receiver and I don't think that always has to be true. A QB can hit a guy in a spot that lets him get YAC easily instead of working to break tackles, etc.

I agree totally. So how in the world can we really evaluate QB play? I don't want to hear people in this forum say "the eye test" as if most people here have any clue as to how to really evaluate QBs, given what little information we have available to us (what play was supposed to be run, how the QB is feeling, etc etc etc).

As fans, ultimately, a good set of statistics, used over a long period of time, is about as objective as it gets.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Eye test

Ah seen that.

5 times.

 

[reflexblue]

3-4 more years for TFB, trade prince Aladin.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If the o line keeps Brady healthy, he should continue to be among the best qb's.

But consistent pressure is his cryptonite (as well as just about every qb not named Rodgers).

Keep him from taking a bunch of hits and he will continue to be elite.