Tom Brady and the 4 Year Plan

[TruthSeeker]

Hell no. They're definitely going to at least MAKE the playoffs. As built this team probably makes the playoffs with Jacoby Brissett under center, with Brady in uniform I think a Superbowl is very possible next year.

Just getting a little tired of some of the "Well he can just do this thing that he's clearly already been doing for years and that will mean he is our starting quarterback for the rest of my life and everything will be fine and nothing bad will ever happen and rainbows and fairies and unicorns will dance in the endzone forever!"

Do you guys really think there's any harder that this guy can work to take care of himself and be the best quarterback he can be? Really, search your souls, do you honestly think that? Once that stops being enough, we have no idea what's going to happen, and I don't expect Brady does either -- but I suspect when he's reached his physical maximum and pushed his body to its credit limit, when the crash comes, it could indeed come pretty suddenly.

Because when the time comes that Brady has to push himself harder to maintain his elite performance than he's actually capable of doing... well there's a price tag for demanding more of yourself than you can possibly give for too many years in a row. And for playing at such a high level for this many years, the backlash could wind up being pretty shocking. Only his lack of an injury history is letting him avoid this consequence THIS long. I'm just not sure how much I trust Brady to keep cheating the reaper when he's already several standard deviations from the mean as it is.

I get the impression that he's doing everything short of taking PED's to remain at a peak level now, so far after most athletes' actual physical peak. When his body stops cashing the checks he's writing, the transition could actually be pretty sudden -- and come a lot sooner than any of us WANT it to. Because he's absolutely not going to let himself slide gently down the bell curve until he physically can't prevent it from happening anymore, so when he does finally have no choice bit to let his play level decline, the backlash could be moderately spectacular.

My personal take? Projecting ANYTHING in football out beyond 2 years is foolish and stupid. Ask me whether brady will be around in 2019, I say yes, probably, at least in some form. Ask me about 2020 my response will be to ask me in 2018. And I'm not going to sell out to get behind Brady when my gut take is that the ride is ending soon -- not next year, but not 5 more years either.

OK, i'm confused.

Do you want discuss his body? Or do you want to discuss his age?

If you want to discuss his body, then let's look at what we know. He looks great on the field from a physical perspective. He has improved his measurables in every category the last three years. These are the facts. So what's the problem? Clearly he's doing great. So I don't see that you have an argument if you are discussing his body.

If you're discussing his age, then you have to determine what is relevant in the discussion. Should you be comparing him to other quarterbacks who do very different types of things in order to prepare themselves for football? Or should you just look at the age blindly and ignore everything else like so many have been doing in this discussion? (He's 39 and this is what 39-year-olds are like.)

Personally, I think discussing age apart from his body doesn't add a lot of value. I think the discussion is really all about his body, not about his age. And his performance, his body and his continual care of himself argue that he has a lot of years left to play.

 

[farn]

Maybe I've been underrating Brady. Watching the game a few seasons ago vs Baltimore (#11 to Danny game).

On the field, on the go ahead score, Brady had almost an entirely different team than he did in FEB. Bolden at RB (because Vereen lost the ball, but Pats kept it because knee was down). Solder-Connelly-Wendell-Kline-Vollmer. Gronk & Hooman. LaFell-Edelman-Danny.

Wow.

 

[TruthSeeker]

... and even had a pretty serious lapse in reading defenses when he gave up that pick 6 on a pass he's made and completed all his life.

Au contraire. How many times has Tom Brady faced a robber defense? And what do you know about robber defenses? I don't think I had ever heard of the robber defense until this game.

I've studied that interception. Three men lined up in man coverage on the left offensive side. There were no other defenders over there. Now when Edelman cut to the middle of the field, the man defender of Edelman gave up his man responsibility and passed it on to the robber in the middle of the field. This is a very sophisticated defense. This freed up Edelman's cover guy to be the new robber – and it happened very quickly from a rather unfamiliar style of defense.

I think your contention that this was an obvious switch that Brady and other quarterbacks should have easily recognized and avoided the throw is ridiculous. Yes, I wish Brady recognized the switch and had not thrown the ball there. But this was about as difficult a read as quarterbacks have to make in the NFL.

 

[sb1]

A good system quarterback is not THAT easy to replace, is the thing. Generally speaking a quarterback that's good enough to really excel in a system is all you need to contend as long as your team is reasonably well balanced in its construction. Heck that's arguably where our first 2 Superbowls came from.

People sneered at Brady for being a system quarterback for most of his early career, but the fact of the matter is that he started out learning his trade at the NFL level by playing in a system while he developed and honed his craft, and that merely allowed him to be relevant while he mastered his art and he proved he was capable of stepping outside the initial system by 2007 at the lates.

Is it really so crazy to think that Garoppolo could go the same way -- develop in a system while he's learning the ropes, and then transcend it? Why is that so absurd when we clearly have an example of the same thing on the roster already?

There isn't really any such thing as a good system QB imo.

Good QBs are never system QBs. Good QBs have lots of talent and can play in almost any system. System QBs are neither...they are not asked to do much just let your playmakers make plays, stay within the system, don't improvise, stay with the script and most importantly don't screw up. That's why they run into trouble when things don't go as planned in a game.

So far that describes Jimmy short NFL career quite accurately, at least to date. It describes why his stats looked less than impressive when the Dolphins started to figure him out. That is typical for a system QB. I didn't see him go out there and sling it to win the game. He was a QB staying within the system. And I suspect that is one reason why the big trade haul has not materialized yet. We do not know if he is good enough to go beyond that. I have not seen him demonstrate that ability yet and if I haven't seen it then I doubt other teams have either.

And as we all know Brady has played and excelled in many different offensive systems with this team. Jimmy has played and looked competent in- one.

 

[sb1]

The mistakes are well documented. Missed block by Freeman on the strip sack, horrible playcalling by the HC/OC on the other sack, and an offensive holding call that had nothing to do with Ryan.

If you can show where Brady's problems in the first half were not simply the result of Brady elderliness, I'm more than prepared to listen, but the fact of the matter is that based on what I saw he was slow in the pocket, inaccurate on the short routes and couldn't connect with his receivers reliably for almost the entire first half and even had a pretty serious lapse in reading defenses when he gave up that pick 6 on a pass he's made and completed all his life.

Ryan's problems were a result of the Cinderella nature of the Falcons' even being there, very few Falcons other than Ryan, Alford, Freeney and Jones really belonged in a Superbowl. Brady's problems were, or at least so it seems to me, with his own body.

That's because you're seeing what you want to see to fit your narrative. It's an easy trap to fall into.

 

[IllegalContact]

OK, i'm confused.

Do you want discuss his body? Or do you want to discuss his age?

If you want to discuss his body, then let's look at what we know. He looks great on the field from a physical perspective. He has improved his measurables in every category the last three years. These are the facts. So what's the problem? Clearly he's doing great. So I don't see that you have an argument if you are discussing his body.

If you're discussing his age, then you have to determine what is relevant in the discussion. Should you be comparing him to other quarterbacks who do very different types of things in order to prepare themselves for football? Or should you just look at the age blindly and ignore everything else like so many have been doing in this discussion? (He's 39 and this is what 39-year-olds are like.)

Personally, I think discussing age apart from his body doesn't add a lot of value. I think the discussion is really all about his body, not about his age. And his performance, his body and his continual care of himself argue that he has a lot of years left to play.

you might be right.......but it would be the first time

I'll stick with my prediction that his overall play tails off substantially within the next 2 years....unless he quits outright after winning the next SB which is my most likely scenario

 

[1960Pats]

The people clamoring for Garrapolo like to pretend they just want a good transition to the next QB, and that it could happen any time over the next few years but that isn't the truth or the reality of it. ForcJimmy Garrapolo to become the next QB of the Patriots it means cutting or trading Brady after the 2017 season, which makes absolutely no sense at all for many reasons, all of which have been outlined repeatedly but ignored by those who keep chanting " Kellerman's Cliff" over and over and over and over again. At no point do they use anything factual to support their case, but it's hard to blame them for that given that all of the facts on hand support the idea that Brady will continue to play at a high level for the near future. Add to that the fact that Brady went on record the week after the Super Bowl that he plans to play another 4-5 seasons and will decide then whether or not to continue, and reports out of the organization after the Super Bowl that they would be looking to extend Brady's contract and it is very clear that Jimmy Garrapolo will have to go elsewhere to be a starter. They also completely ignore the fact that Belichick prizes durability and the ability to answer the bell every week in his players, andvwhen Garrapolo was asked to just play 4 games Brady was suspended for he couldn't even make it through two of them. Not exactly a great advertisement for a guy whose supporters keep
Insistingvwill be THE FRANCHISE QB for the next 10-15 seasons, yet can't make it through 6 quarters of NFL football.

I hope they get something good for Garrapolo, after 3 seasons of training him and the use of a 2nd round pick to get him that's the least we can hope for.

I'd just be happy seeing you spell the young man's name correctly.

All kidding aside, if the Pats are serious about not dealing Garoppolo then that must mean that they like him. I find that encouraging.

With the team as strong as it appears to be, the Pats would be fools to have no backup plan in place in case TB12 goes down.

 

[heavyde050]

The mistakes are well documented. Missed block by Freeman on the strip sack, horrible playcalling by the HC/OC on the other sack, and an offensive holding call that had nothing to do with Ryan.

If you can show where Brady's problems in the first half were not simply the result of Brady elderliness, I'm more than prepared to listen, but the fact of the matter is that based on what I saw he was slow in the pocket, inaccurate on the short routes and couldn't connect with his receivers reliably for almost the entire first half and even had a pretty serious lapse in reading defenses when he gave up that pick 6 on a pass he's made and completed all his life.

Ryan's problems were a result of the Cinderella nature of the Falcons' even being there, very few Falcons other than Ryan, Alford, Freeney and Jones really belonged in a Superbowl. Brady's problems were, or at least so it seems to me, with his own body.

I agree that Brady wasn't at his best in the first half, but to not put some of the blame on the receivers for dropping catchable passes seems wrong. They didn't come down with any contested balls in the first half.
To be fair, they came down with almost all of them in the second half, especially the ones that mattered.
Placing all the blame on Brady is reaching.

 

[Oswlek]

Au contraire. How many times has Tom Brady faced a robber defense? And what do you know about robber defenses? I don't think I had ever heard of the robber defense until this game.

I've studied that interception. Three men lined up in man coverage on the left offensive side. There were no other defenders over there. Now when Edelman cut to the middle of the field, the man defender of Edelman gave up his man responsibility and passed it on to the robber in the middle of the field. This is a very sophisticated defense. This freed up Edelman's cover guy to be the new robber – and it happened very quickly from a rather unfamiliar style of defense.

I think your contention that this was an obvious switch that Brady and other quarterbacks should have easily recognized and avoided the throw is ridiculous. Yes, I wish Brady recognized the switch and had not thrown the ball there. But this was about as difficult a read as quarterbacks have to make in the NFL.

Exactly. This was no garden variety misread, it was a sophisticated switch specifically designed to bait Brady into a read and exploit it. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Atlanta hadn't run that switching robber D to that point in the game.

I agree that Brady wasn't at his best in the first half, but to not put some of the blame on the receivers for dropping catchable passes seems wrong. They didn't come down with any contested balls in the first half.

To be fair, they came down with almost all of them in the second half, especially the ones that mattered.
Placing all the blame on Brady is reaching.

Yes, Simpleton's narrative is extremely biased. Every Brady error is evidence of age-based decline, every Ryan error is either normal per-play variance or a coach's fault.

You actually underplay the issues in the first half. Brady was under constant pressure and receivers weren't getting open. Sans Gronk, there wasn't a single elite playmaker who could make Atlanta pay for their coverage choices.... which is part of why Bill invested so much in Cooks. It's not a coincidence that Brady "played better" as Atlanta's speed edge wore down and guys started winning more 1:1 battles.

I don't begrudge anyone their uncertainty about Brady's future and interest in a succession plan, but the evidence for Brady's supposed decline-in-progress is really weak.

 

[Soliel]

It wasent bradys fault in the first half. Look into this if you like.. The last three years it seems like the pats come out really flat in the first half after a by week.. Its like the week off does them more harm than good.. I cant figure it out. The entire team had a rotten first half due to Atlanta throwing everything they had. They couldnt sustain it then the pats woke up in the second half..look at the seattle game

 

[Huckleberry1]

I'd just be happy seeing you spell the young man's name correctly.

All kidding aside, if the Pats are serious about not dealing Garoppolo then that must mean that they like him. I find that encouraging.

With the team as strong as it appears to be, the Pats would be fools to have no backup plan in place in case TB12 goes down.

No one argues that Brady will play forever, other than me. The debate is whether Garrapolo will succeed him in 2018.

My apologies on the spelling issues.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It wasent bradys fault in the first half. Look into this if you like.. The last three years it seems like the pats come out really flat in the first half after a by week.. Its like the week off does them more harm than good.. I cant figure it out. The entire team had a rotten first half due to Atlanta throwing everything they had. They couldnt sustain it then the pats woke up in the second half..look at the seattle game

It's also not Brady's fault that games aren't decided at halftime, as much as the simplest among us would like that.

 

[deroc5050]

Sure, for any normal 40 year old QB, that would be true. Tom Brady isn't normal. He takes care of himself perhaps better than any athlete ever has. And to this point, he HASN'T shown any signs of slowing down. And whatever athleticism he might lose over the next 4 years, it's likely not to matter that much because that has never been a big part of his game. As long as his arm doesn't get injured, he very likely is to be the same Tom Brady we've all known for the next 2 years with only slight loss of skill over the two years following that.

Count Brady out for 4 seasons if you wish. But I'd suggest if you do so you've never understood the man who's taken you to a record 5 Super Bowl victories and glory beyond any fan's wildest dreams.

I honestly think Brady will play 4 more seasons. I just have my doubts that all 4 of his remaining seasons will be with the Patriots. I would be very surprised if they franchised JG and rolled with Brady as the starter in 2018 though. Technically they could probably pull it off and this is not a typical situation. You have your HOF QB 5 time Super Bowl winner nearing the end of his career and lets just pretend that they think JG is the heir apparent to Brady.. If thats what they think then I could maybe see that situation happening. If you did Franchise JG in 2018, at that point Brady at most has 2 years left. And thats asking and presuming alot out of Brady. So the question becomes is it worth to keep Brady around for at most 2 more years after 2018 or would it be smarter to move forward with JG in 2019?

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[sb1]

I honestly think Brady will play 4 more seasons. I just have my doubts that all 4 of his remaining seasons will be with the Patriots. I would be very surprised if they franchised JG and rolled with Brady as the starter in 2018 though. Technically they could probably pull it off and this is not a typical situation. You have your HOF QB 5 time Super Bowl winner nearing the end of his career and lets just pretend that they think JG is the heir apparent to Brady.. If thats what they think then I could maybe see that situation happening. If you did Franchise JG in 2018, at that point Brady at most has 2 years left. And thats asking and presuming alot out of Brady. So the question becomes is it worth to keep Brady around for at most 2 more years after 2018 or would it be smarter to move forward with JG in 2019?

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I know it's happened with Montana, Manning, Bledsoe and Favre and others but I don't see Brady finishing his career with another team.

Brady will be 42 at the start of the 2019 season. The only non Patriot teams that would be interested in a rental of a 42 year old Brady are teams like the Jags and Bills that want to sell tickets or teams like the Jets who want to sell tickets AND get headlines. Yeah- as if.

He is staying here... and he will walk away when he decides it's time.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Somebody is making an argument that Brady looked "old" in the first half of SB51? Wha?

If anybody looked old, it was Solder. While Mason and Cannon struggled with the stunts on ther right, Solder had troubles with wide rushes from all comers. It was those rushes causing Brady the most trouble early on. While all 3 still had lapses in the 2nd half, Solder clearly fixed most of his problems at halftime.

The Pats also changed up a lot of their play calls after getting down by 25. Lots more comeback routes to avoid the robber coverage in the middle. More out routes. Less Blount into the line.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Simpelton]

I know it's happened with Montana, Manning, Bledsoe and Favre and others but I don't see Brady finishing his career with another team.

Brady will be 42 at the start of the 2019 season. The only non Patriot teams that would be interested in a rental of a 42 year old Brady are teams like the Jags and Bills that want to sell tickets or teams like the Jets who want to sell tickets AND get headlines. Yeah- as if.

He is staying here... and he will walk away when he decides it's time.

I actually disagree with this. Let's say for a moment that the Patriots did cut ties with Brady. There's always a handful of teams on the playoff bubble that feel like they're a quarterback away, and perhaps another 1 or 2 where a great quarterback would put them on the playoff bubble. This year the Texans would have been an example. And I don't think anything Houston's done to its quarterback position is going to be a longterm fix either, they might easily be back on the market over the next few years, and might be joined by others.


Now if you've got a young team, or a veteran team right on the verge of relevance, and this Tom Brady fellow let it be generally known that he was looking for a team to play for, please tell me with a straight face that you wouldn't be interested. Even knowing that he's not going to be in vintage Brady form, the depth of knowledge that man has, his professionalism, his passion for the game -- there's a ton he could teach a team while he frontlined the franchise for 2 years and bought them time to develop the quarterback behind him.

I think that if Brady hit the market in 2 years, even if he does wear down in the meantime I think you might expect somewhere between 2 and 6 teams to be scouting him either for the last few gasps of Brady magic he might still have in the tank, or for the human-training-wheels effect and his ability to compete just about as well as anyone, even at his age, while passing on a vast wealth of experience to the roster around him while the guy they think is their future develops behind him..

 

[Huckleberry1]

Won't it be great when they get rid of Brady? Then we won't have to watch football in February anymore. People are clearly pretty sick of that.

 

[Soliel]

Oh man. I hate the idea of brady going anywhere else to play. The thought of him in a jets uniform is more evil than having a picture of pagano anwhere in a house.

 

[Simpelton]

I think Brady's smart enough to stay the hell away from the Jets whatever happened -- Brady's in no danger of being stupid enough to sign with a team that had no idea what they were doing or which wasn't going anywhere anytime soon, and the Jets are both.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Oh man. I hate the idea of brady going anywhere else to play. The thought of him in a jets uniform is more evil than having a picture of pagano anwhere in a house.

You don't have to worry about it, Brady will retire a Patriot in 4-5 years with two more rings.