Tom Brady and the 4 Year Plan

[heavyde050]

It's more likely than you want to think that Garoppolo will win the job by 2020. Brady is borrowing heavily on his credit with Father Time right now. He's worked his ass off to be able to play like a man 10 years his junior for at least the last 3 seasons. I really don't know how much farther he can ratchet up the workout and lifestyle game to keep holding back entropy when it's pretty clear he's already doing nearly everything mortally possible.

I think that the 5 year projection is accurate in the sense that a player who's staring at the cliff can put off Father Time for 5 years if they remain healthy and work very hard, I just happen to think that as many as 3 of those years are already behind us.

Brady has been going flat out with the workouts and lifestyle adjustments since at least 2014. No matter what kind of freak of nature he is, there's only so much a 40 year old man can do to stay at an elite NFL level for more than a couple more seasons. He might go farther most, but no one runs forever.

There's also the fact that there's only so much time Brady can devote to fighting off the Reaper with training and lifestyle until he makes himself inaccessible to his own family. He's already pushing the boundaries of what he can achieve and have some kind of life outside football. We saw some rumors Giselle's a little unhappy with his choice of work life balance as it is, and if he steps it down to please her, it's going to be all the harder to keep his career going at the level we're used to. That's not going to get better over time as the pressures of playing elite level football are placed on an older and older human body. I'd hate for Brady to elect to destroy his family in the name of squeezing out a handful of seasons in uniform when he already has nothing to prove and probably won't need more money for the rest of his life.

If asked to don my silver turban and peer into the crystal ball, I'd say that this all comes to a head at the end of the 2018 season, especially if we have at least one more Lombardi at Gillette in the meantime. It'll start with a few more games towards the end of 2017 that are not that Brady-like. Possibly even one between games 12 and 16 where he has a couple turnovers on short yardages amd Belichick feels obliged to bring on the backup. That'd be the sign that the wheels are in motion. Then Brady, sensing the end might be near, throws everything he has into getting back to where he feels he should be in time for the Superbowl, and we win the Lombardi again for 3 out of 4.

Then... he comes out the gate in 2018 very rough as the wear and tear of all the hard work above and beyond the call of duty that he puts in to stay in elite shape for the last 5 years catches up and cascades on him. We lose 3 of the first 7 games of the season with at least 2 of the 3 losses on Brady, and while there's flashes of vintage Brady, enough to win us significantly more games than we lose, it becomes clear that he's just not quite on the level he used to be. We get to the playoffs after a year of either 10-6 or 11-5, make some noise, but have a disappointing AFCCG and don't make the Superbowl.

Fans here will find something to blame, probably the offensive line or perhaps the defense or the running backs, and insist that Brady has still got it and he was let down by something or someone. but that's the point where I think the onset of physical decline, the demands of family, and the franchise's own need for security for the future combine and end Brady's tenure as a New England Patriot despite more than enough evidence to support either side of what one might call the "keep or kick" debate.

The Brady loyalists and the franchise-first fans will have some bitter arguments on forums like this one, but the deed will be done, the Bradyists will fume, and the franchise will be handed to Garoppolo to see what he does with it in the sure knowledge that while he probably isn't as good as Brady, no one would be and the Brady era was going to need to end sometime, with some kind of replacement, and the franchise could do far worse.

It is a possibility that Jimmy G isn't a franchise QB.
I think he will be a good starting QB, but this entire Brady end date argument is taking it as a fact that Jimmy G is a top 10 QB.
I can't predict Brady's end date any more accurately than I can predict how good Jimmy G will be.
It is just funny that people bring up the fact that Father Time is undefeated (I agree) and Brady can't play forever (I agree), but fail to mention that Jimmy G being a sure thing is not a sure thing.

 

[Simpelton]

It is a possibility that Jimmy G isn't a franchise QB.
I think he will be a good starting QB, but this entire Brady end date argument is taking it as a fact that Jimmy G is a top 10 QB.
I can't predict Brady's end date any more accurately than I can predict how good Jimmy G will be.
It is just funny that people bring up the fact that Father Time is undefeated (I agree) and Brady can't play forever (I agree), but fail to mention that Jimmy G being a sure thing is not a sure thing.

Because he isn't a sure thing. Jimmy G is the logical choice not because he's awesome, but because he's better than an average replacement that we already have under contract.

This is not a high standard, replacement quarterbacks are notoriously terrible, Jimmy G is NOT notoriously terrible, therefore he has the inside track on any harebrained scheme to replace him until and unless Jacoby Brissett shows us something we haven't seen yet from him.

To sum it up briefly, you go to Jimmy G not because he's better than Brady, but because you've already decided to cut ties with Brady and he is therefore not an option, and the only remaining question is who to replace him with.

Making that decision while you know you have a replacement option that's considerably better than what you could scrape out of the free agent barrel in an average year has its attractive qualities even if Brady is still playing at a very high level indeed when the decision comes to a head by, say, being in danger of losing this better than normal quality replacement to free agency.

I can't think this franchise will run the risk of only having average replacements on hand when the time comes to pull the trigger and bring on the post-Brady era, that's a bridge too far, even with their loyalty to and friendship with Brady factored in. Business is, after all, business.

And I think Jimmy G may wind up being a very pleasant surprise. He has all the talent he needs to be very effective if he can put it together and stay on the field. That's why the Browns are rumored to be interested in backing up the truck for him. We should take their willingness to field some pretty tempting offers to bring Jimmy G to Cleveland to be, if nothing else, an endorsement by them of what they see as Garoppolo's potential. That should advise our debates here because as much crap as the Browns organization gets at time, they do know a little more about football than we do.

 

[heavyde050]

Because he isn't a sure thing. Jimmy G is the logical choice not because he's awesome, but because he's better than an average replacement that we already have under contract.

This is not a high standard, replacement quarterbacks are notoriously terrible, Jimmy G is NOT notoriously terrible, therefore he has the inside track on any harebrained scheme to replace him until and unless Jacoby Brissett shows us something we haven't seen yet from him.

To sum it up briefly, you go to Jimmy G not because he's better than Brady, but because you've already decided to cut ties with Brady and he is therefore not an option, and the only remaining question is who to replace him with.

Making that decision while you know you have a replacement option that's considerably better than what you could scrape out of the free agent barrel in an average year has its attractive qualities even if Brady is still playing at a very high level indeed when the decision comes to a head by, say, being in danger of losing this better than normal quality replacement to free agency.

I can't think this franchise will run the risk of only having average replacements on hand when the time comes to pull the trigger and bring on the post-Brady era, that's a bridge too far, even with their loyalty to and friendship with Brady factored in. Business is, after all, business.

And I think Jimmy G may wind up being a very pleasant surprise. He has all the talent he needs to be very effective if he can put it together and stay on the field. That's why the Browns are rumored to be interested in backing up the truck for him. We should take their willingness to field some pretty tempting offers to bring Jimmy G to Cleveland to be, if nothing else, an endorsement by them of what they see as Garoppolo's potential. That should advise our debates here because as much crap as the Browns organization gets at time, they do know a little more about football than we do.

You bring up some good points. But I think that is a little bit of wishful thinking on Jimmy G.
How can he be a pleasant surprise when people are already calling him a top 10 QB (I have seen it posted)?
Also the Browns are on record as saying they won't give up the first pick and won't give up multiple high picks.
I think Jimmy will be good. But I doubt the Pats will use any rumored offer from the Browns to sway their opinion on Jimmy.

 

[1960Pats]

Because he isn't a sure thing. Jimmy G is the logical choice not because he's awesome, but because he's better than an average replacement that we already have under contract.

This is not a high standard, replacement quarterbacks are notoriously terrible, Jimmy G is NOT notoriously terrible, therefore he has the inside track on any harebrained scheme to replace him until and unless Jacoby Brissett shows us something we haven't seen yet from him.

To sum it up briefly, you go to Jimmy G not because he's better than Brady, but because you've already decided to cut ties with Brady and he is therefore not an option, and the only remaining question is who to replace him with.

Making that decision while you know you have a replacement option that's considerably better than what you could scrape out of the free agent barrel in an average year has its attractive qualities even if Brady is still playing at a very high level indeed when the decision comes to a head by, say, being in danger of losing this better than normal quality replacement to free agency.

I can't think this franchise will run the risk of only having average replacements on hand when the time comes to pull the trigger and bring on the post-Brady era, that's a bridge too far, even with their loyalty to and friendship with Brady factored in. Business is, after all, business.

And I think Jimmy G may wind up being a very pleasant surprise. He has all the talent he needs to be very effective if he can put it together and stay on the field. That's why the Browns are rumored to be interested in backing up the truck for him. We should take their willingness to field some pretty tempting offers to bring Jimmy G to Cleveland to be, if nothing else, an endorsement by them of what they see as Garoppolo's potential. That should advise our debates here because as much crap as the Browns organization gets at time, they do know a little more about football than we do.

This post is a breath of fresh air compared to the name calling going on with the 'can't even spell Garoppolo's name' crowd. Maybe if he stays another 2 or 3 years they'll figure it out.

I look at the Pats insistence on keeping Garoppolo as comforting. If they believe that he's a decent replacement for Brady when the time comes, then I'm going to trust that they know what they're doing.

 

[bruce_w]

'

Or like the best reporter in the NFL said.. the Patriots are not trading Jimmy G.

The best coach in the history of sports also said that the Patriots are not trading Jimmy G and Jimmy G is a sure thing. He will replace Brady much sooner than later and people like Ivan the Terrible will whine and cry about how disrespectful and disloyal Belichick is. He has done it before though all the way back to Bernie Kosar and then of course Drew Bledsoe, so he knows how to make the transition.

 

[PatriotDynasty99]

The best coach in the history of sports also said that the Patriots are not trading Jimmy G and Jimmy G is a sure thing. He will replace Brady much sooner than later and people like Ivan the Terrible will whine and cry about how disrespectful and disloyal Belichick is. He has done it before though all the way back to Bernie Kosar and then of course Drew Bledsoe, so he knows how to make the transition.

So when is he replacing Brady exactly? This year? No? Another year backing up Tom Brady? That would mean 4 years on the bench for Jimmy.

OK, then the year after that? If true that means you either cut or trade Tom Brady. Is that how it's going to happen? No again? Brady is playing two years from now and it means: Jimmy is backing up Brady AGAIN for the 5th straight year AND you'll have to franchise tag Jimmy and pay him considerably more than your starter. Does that seem likely?

So, what's it going to be. Keep Jimmy around, pay him a boatload of money and get rid of Tom Brady.

Yeah, this all fits like a perfect jigsaw puzzle.

 

[DarrylS]

Haven't read all 86 posts in this thread, but not much love for Brissett?? Considering he is new to the NFL and new to this system thought he played well last year, IMO he is the future..

Do not see BB paying two premium QB's for the next 4 years... every once and a while I hear a suggestion that they will franchise Jimmy G.. do not see any of this at all.. any suggestion of "paying" Jimmy G goes against the economic principles of the NE Patriots..

 

[Huckleberry1]

So when is he replacing Brady exactly? This year? No? Another year backing up Tom Brady? That would mean 4 years on the bench for Jimmy.

OK, then the year after that? If true that means you either cut or trade Tom Brady. Is that how it's going to happen? No again? Brady is playing two years from now and it means: Jimmy is backing up Brady AGAIN for the 5th straight year AND you'll have to franchise tag Jimmy and pay him considerably more than your starter. Does that seem likely?

So, what's it going to be. Keep Jimmy around, pay him a boatload of money and get rid of Tom Brady.

Yeah, this all fits like a perfect jigsaw puzzle.

The people clamoring for Garrapolo like to pretend they just want a good transition to the next QB, and that it could happen any time over the next few years but that isn't the truth or the reality of it. ForcJimmy Garrapolo to become the next QB of the Patriots it means cutting or trading Brady after the 2017 season, which makes absolutely no sense at all for many reasons, all of which have been outlined repeatedly but ignored by those who keep chanting " Kellerman's Cliff" over and over and over and over again. At no point do they use anything factual to support their case, but it's hard to blame them for that given that all of the facts on hand support the idea that Brady will continue to play at a high level for the near future. Add to that the fact that Brady went on record the week after the Super Bowl that he plans to play another 4-5 seasons and will decide then whether or not to continue, and reports out of the organization after the Super Bowl that they would be looking to extend Brady's contract and it is very clear that Jimmy Garrapolo will have to go elsewhere to be a starter. They also completely ignore the fact that Belichick prizes durability and the ability to answer the bell every week in his players, andvwhen Garrapolo was asked to just play 4 games Brady was suspended for he couldn't even make it through two of them. Not exactly a great advertisement for a guy whose supporters keep
Insistingvwill be THE FRANCHISE QB for the next 10-15 seasons, yet can't make it through 6 quarters of NFL football.

I hope they get something good for Garrapolo, after 3 seasons of training him and the use of a 2nd round pick to get him that's the least we can hope for.

 

[Soliel]

I started laughing when it was suggested that Cleveland liking someone means they are good.

Thanks for the laugh man

 

[sb1]

The best coach in the history of sports also said that the Patriots are not trading Jimmy G and Jimmy G is a sure thing. He will replace Brady much sooner than later and people like Ivan the Terrible will whine and cry about how disrespectful and disloyal Belichick is. He has done it before though all the way back to Bernie Kosar and then of course Drew Bledsoe, so he knows how to make the transition.

Belichick didn't say either of those things. I'm sure he said complimentary things about JG's abilities but he also said that with Tebow.

Agree that Belichick knows how to make the transition. I don't believe it will be to JG.

 

[sb1]

Because he isn't a sure thing. Jimmy G is the logical choice not because he's awesome, but because he's better than an average replacement that we already have under contract.

This is not a high standard, replacement quarterbacks are notoriously terrible, Jimmy G is NOT notoriously terrible, therefore he has the inside track on any harebrained scheme to replace him until and unless Jacoby Brissett shows us something we haven't seen yet from him.

To sum it up briefly, you go to Jimmy G not because he's better than Brady, but because you've already decided to cut ties with Brady and he is therefore not an option, and the only remaining question is who to replace him with.

Making that decision while you know you have a replacement option that's considerably better than what you could scrape out of the free agent barrel in an average year has its attractive qualities even if Brady is still playing at a very high level indeed when the decision comes to a head by, say, being in danger of losing this better than normal quality replacement to free agency.

I can't think this franchise will run the risk of only having average replacements on hand when the time comes to pull the trigger and bring on the post-Brady era, that's a bridge too far, even with their loyalty to and friendship with Brady factored in. Business is, after all, business.

And I think Jimmy G may wind up being a very pleasant surprise. He has all the talent he needs to be very effective if he can put it together and stay on the field. That's why the Browns are rumored to be interested in backing up the truck for him. We should take their willingness to field some pretty tempting offers to bring Jimmy G to Cleveland to be, if nothing else, an endorsement by them of what they see as Garoppolo's potential. That should advise our debates here because as much crap as the Browns organization gets at time, they do know a little more about football than we do.

It's not an either/or with JG and Brissett. If they trade or move on from JG there is nothing stopping the team from drafting a guy in the QB rich class next year, or even this year... or find someone else if they don't like Brissett. Maybe even grabbing a guy like Siemien if DEN makes him available. There are options.

As for "not notoriously terrible"... a lot of JAG QBs that can be had for cheap would fit that description. It says nothing about Jimmy.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It's not an either/or with JG and Brissett. If they trade or move on from JG there is nothing stopping the team from drafting a guy in the QB rich class next year, or even this year... or find someone else if they don't like Brissett. Maybe even grabbing a guy like Siemien if DEN makes him available. There are options.

As for "not notoriously terrible"... a lot of JAG QBs that can be had for cheap would fit that description. It says nothing about Jimmy.

Agree completely, if Brady were actually showing signs of deterioration then an argument could be made that Garrapolo is their best bet for a succession to Brady. Brady isn't, however, showing any signs of deterioration and in fact has been getting better over the past few seasons, and Garrapolo, when asked to fill in was unable to do so and they had to have Brissett take over for him just to get through 4 games. Despite that those supporting Garrapolo continue to insist that he should get the job even though they admit that he can't win it on his own. They are flat out saying that the inferior player should get the job based solely upon their imagination's.

 

[IllegalContact]

insisting on a 4 year plan with Brady is pretty ignorant

 

[PatriotDynasty99]

insisting on a 4 year plan with Brady is pretty ignorant

Sure, for any normal 40 year old QB, that would be true. Tom Brady isn't normal. He takes care of himself perhaps better than any athlete ever has. And to this point, he HASN'T shown any signs of slowing down. And whatever athleticism he might lose over the next 4 years, it's likely not to matter that much because that has never been a big part of his game. As long as his arm doesn't get injured, he very likely is to be the same Tom Brady we've all known for the next 2 years with only slight loss of skill over the two years following that.

Count Brady out for 4 seasons if you wish. But I'd suggest if you do so you've never understood the man who's taken you to a record 5 Super Bowl victories and glory beyond any fan's wildest dreams.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It's amazing that none of those arguing for a transition to Garrapolo are able to back it up with anything of substance at all.

 

[IllegalContact]

Sure, for any normal 40 year old QB, that would be true. Tom Brady isn't normal. He takes care of himself perhaps better than any athlete ever has. And to this point, he HASN'T shown any signs of slowing down. And whatever athleticism he might lose over the next 4 years, it's likely not to matter that much because that has never been a big part of his game. As long as his arm doesn't get injured, he very likely is to be the same Tom Brady we've all known for the next 2 years with only slight loss of skill over the two years following that.

Count Brady out for 4 seasons if you wish. But I'd suggest if you do so you've never understood the man who's taken you to a record 5 Super Bowl victories and glory beyond any fan's wildest dreams.

It is idiotic to simply assume he will last another 4 years and that his slide will be gradual.....especially considering how little he would actually have to slide to have the Pats not contend for an AFCC

what you fail to understand is basic physiology......just because he hasn't aged yet does not mean he will not age in the next 4 years...and when he does, it will be fast

LOL.....as long as his arm doesn't get injured

 

[IllegalContact]

It's amazing that none of those arguing for a transition to Garrapolo are able to back it up with anything of substance at all.

QB's get old.....and when they do, it is fast

 

[Simpelton]

Haven't read all 86 posts in this thread, but not much love for Brissett?? Considering he is new to the NFL and new to this system thought he played well last year, IMO he is the future..

Brissett played well for a replacement. He's in no danger of being good enough to start for this team for 16 games at the moment. He's talented, has great intangibles, showed good poise and confidence. Clearly a prospect worth working with. Just as clearly not a starting quarterback for a premiere team at this time.

If they do lose Garoppolo and have to delay the replacement plans for 2-3 years, I think with 2-3 years of development under his belt Brissett could easily be good enough to take the reins and try to lead the team somewhere. I actually would not mind seeing this scenario unfold. But he's not good enough now, and when it comes to developing a longer term prospect like Brissett you simply never know how it can go, so you can't just trade Garoppolo and take Brissett on faith. Not when we're so close to needing to replace the biggest asset on our roster.

 

[Simpelton]

It is idiotic to simply assume he will last another 4 years and that his slide will be gradual.....especially considering how little he would actually have to slide to have the Pats not contend for an AFCC

what you fail to understand is basic physiology......just because he hasn't aged yet does not mean he will not age in the next 4 years...and when he does, it will be fast

LOL.....as long as his arm doesn't get injured

Or to put that another way -- Tom Brady is already doing everything he humanly can do to fight off decline. His body is slowly deteriorating just like everyone else's, meaning the standard of work required to continue to play at an elite level is getting higher and higher. When the level of work required to remain elite exceeds the level of work he's physically capable of, the decline that is already happening will start to become obvious on the field. But Brady will not let that happen where we can see it if he can possibly help it. And the harder he fights Father Time, the more likely it is the first time we see any sign of weakness will be the major cascade failure Max Kellerman sneeringly refers to as a "cliff."

If he's showing any weakness at all, it's because all the hard work, self-care, guile, intelligence, tactical adjustments, etc have already failed and his body has deteriorated to the point that all the hard work in the world may no longer be sufficient.

Once that happens, one of the things that can happen to a player is a kind of cascade backlash, where a player goes from "good" to "cooked" over a very short period of time, this usually happens when the heavy workouts they've been doing to try to stay on form result in a string of minor injuries culminating in a major injury as the body simply breaks down. That's what the "cliff" looks like. They live in credit too hard for too long and then the bill comes due.

That's why some of us consider the first 2 quarters of the Superbowl to be so disturbing. beyond the scoreboard -- Brady was clearly playing like he'd lost a step, couldn't get out of the way of the rush, couldn't step up in the pocket, had some inefficient passes on short routes, couldn't get the ball to Edelman -- a receiver who of all receivers should have timing with Brady -- several times. And even threw a pick on a short pass, which Tom Brady simply does not do. He was doing that against an elite defense -- but even against elite defenses Brady just doesn't get flat out crushed like that.

BB found ways to get Brady going and Brady went into his late game Superman mode and he was able to atone. but that doesn't magically make the first 2 quarters disappear. Anyone think Brady was mailing it in in the first 2 quarters? Anyone actually think that there was an attitude where Brady was giving less than everything he had in the first half? No. That means that Brady was having a problem with things he expected to be able to do -- and found he COULDN'T. That *is* what the beginning of a decline phase looks like, ability to rally later in the game and all.

There's a reason that that game gets cited by those of us concerned about Brady's decline, even with the amazing finish. Max Kellerman is wrong, it's not a sign that the cliff is imminent. But if Brady is beginning to show signs of deterioration despite all he can do -- at the very least it's cause for concern for anyone trying to project the guy outward for multiple seasons.

 

[sb1]

Or to put that another way -- Tom Brady is already doing everything he humanly can do to fight off decline. His body is slowly deteriorating just like everyone else's, meaning the standard of work required to continue to play at an elite level is getting higher and higher. When the level of work required to remain elite exceeds the level of work he's physically capable of, the decline that is already happening will start to become obvious on the field. But Brady will not let that happen where we can see it if he can possibly help it. And the harder he fights Father Time, the more likely it is the first time we see any sign of weakness will be the major cascade failure Max Kellerman sneeringly refers to as a "cliff."

If he's showing any weakness at all, it's because all the hard work, self-care, guile, intelligence, tactical adjustments, etc have already failed and his body has deteriorated to the point that all the hard work in the world may no longer be sufficient.

Once that happens, one of the things that can happen to a player is a kind of cascade backlash, where a player goes from "good" to "cooked" over a very short period of time, this usually happens when the heavy workouts they've been doing to try to stay on form result in a string of minor injuries culminating in a major injury as the body simply breaks down. That's what the "cliff" looks like. They live in credit too hard for too long and then the bill comes due.

That's why some of us consider the first 2 quarters of the Superbowl to be so disturbing. beyond the scoreboard -- Brady was clearly playing like he'd lost a step, couldn't get out of the way of the rush, couldn't step up in the pocket, had some inefficient passes on short routes, couldn't get the ball to Edelman -- a receiver who of all receivers should have timing with Brady -- several times. And even threw a pick on a short pass, which Tom Brady simply does not do. He was doing that against an elite defense -- but even against elite defenses Brady just doesn't get flat out crushed like that.

BB found ways to get Brady going and Brady went into his late game Superman mode and he was able to atone. but that doesn't magically make the first 2 quarters disappear. Anyone think Brady was mailing it in in the first 2 quarters? Anyone actually think that there was an attitude where Brady was giving less than everything he had in the first half? No. That means that Brady was having a problem with things he expected to be able to do -- and found he COULDN'T.

There's a reason that that game gets cited by those of us concerned about Brady's decline, even with the amazing finish. Max Kellerman is wrong, it's not a sign that the cliff is imminent. But if Brady is beginning to show signs of deterioration despite all he can do -- at the very least it's cause for concern for anyone trying to project the guy outward for multiple seasons.

As I said above, Brady did not have a good first half, but the reasons for that had absolutely nothing to do with his age. And I've seen him do much worse than that over the years when he was younger. He's also thrown picks on short routes plenty of times.

There is no compelling reason why the Patriots should look to move on from Brady right now. Yes they should plan for it and that day is coming but it's not today or anytime in the near future. Such a premature move does not make the team better at all. Put JG or JB in there today permanently and this is not a likely playoff team.