The WR position for the first 4 games now...

[TBR]

Within minutes I went from optimistic about the 2018 crop of wideouts to CONCERNED.

It's an ok crop, but Matthews is the only loss so far. Edelman being gone for 4 games sucks, but thankfully, the playoff games are what really matter.

 

[Dingleberry]

Umm... that wasn't a subtle troll. It was a lousy one, given the fragility of Hogan, and Britt/Mitchell/Decker, but not a subtle one. And being strong at one position doesn't magically mean people shouldn't be concerned about another position, so get out of here with that "When I troll, you'll know it" crap. If you weren't trolling, you were being ridiculous.

Take the "I was trolling" path. It's less embarrassing for you.

Oh crap, I've been embarrassed! I have been embarrassed on a message board.

If I took myself as seriously as you or had half the superiority complex that you display, this shameful embarrassment might bother me. Alas, I find your response to my opinion kind of cute.

i stand by opinion that the WR situation is not an issue for 4 games. Someone with your expertise and infallibility ****ting on my opinion is awfully intimidating, I must confess.

 

[maineman209]

In 2017 (without Edelman), Brady's top four targets were (in order): TE, WR, WR, RB.
--- These four accounted for 65% of all receptions, 63% of all receiving TDs, and over 70% of all receiving yards.

In 2016, the top targets were (in order): WR, RB, TE, WR.
--- They accounted for 68% of receptions, 60% of receiving TDs, 68% of receiving yards.


In 2015, the top THREE were: TE, WR, WR
--- 49% of receptions, 58% of receiving TDs, 52% of receiving yards

The NEXT three included 2 RBs & WR #3 who contributed about equally:
--- 28% of receptions, 17% of receiving TDs, 27% of receiving yards


In 2014, the top four were: WR, TE, WR, RB
--- 77% of receptions, 76% of receiving TDs, 81% of receiving yards


Typically, Brady's top four targets have accounted for 65%-75% of all receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs - and those top four targets have included a TE, an RB and only two WRs. Brady's "2nd-tier" target group (accounting for nearly all the remaining targets, receptions, receiving yards & receiving TDs) has also typically included a TE, an RB and the #3WR. This pattern extends back through at least the Watson-Faulk era.

 

[luuked]

In 2017 (without Edelman), Brady's top four targets were (in order): TE, WR, WR, RB.
--- These four accounted for 65% of all receptions, 63% of all receiving TDs, and over 70% of all receiving yards.

In 2016, the top targets were (in order): WR, RB, TE, WR.
--- They accounted for 68% of receptions, 60% of receiving TDs, 68% of receiving yards.


In 2015, the top THREE were: TE, WR, WR
--- 49% of receptions, 58% of receiving TDs, 52% of receiving yards

The NEXT three included 2 RBs & WR #3 who contributed about equally:
--- 28% of receptions, 17% of receiving TDs, 27% of receiving yards


In 2014, the top four were: WR, TE, WR, RB
--- 77% of receptions, 76% of receiving TDs, 81% of receiving yards


Typically, Brady's top four targets have accounted for 65%-75% of all receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs - and those top four targets have included a TE, an RB and only two WRs. Brady's "2nd-tier" target group (accounting for nearly all the remaining targets, receptions, receiving yards & receiving TDs) has also typically included a TE, an RB and the #3WR. This pattern extends back through at least the Watson-Faulk era.

Yep. While the WR group might be thin for the first few weeks without Edelman it is laughably short sighted to ignore the fact that the Pats offense is a lot more than just WR. There are not many teams that use RBs and TEs as receiving options as often and well as this team.

Is it a similar stack of riches as it was last year at the same point of the year? No. But it doesn't have to be.

 

[maineman209]

If you haven't seen Evan Lazar's highlight clips of Patterson ...

Keep in mind that Patterson is 6'2"/220 with 4.42 speed. His career catch rate is only 63%, however, his last two seasons he's been at nearly 75% - with a YAC percentage of 68%. He can break some tackles.

 

[Deus Irae]

Oh crap, I've been embarrassed! I have been embarrassed on a message board.

If I took myself as seriously as you or had half the superiority complex that you display, this shameful embarrassment might bother me. Alas, I find your response to my opinion kind of cute.

i stand by opinion that the WR situation is not an issue for 4 games. Someone with your expertise and infallibility ****ting on my opinion is awfully intimidating, I must confess.

I take pretty much nothing seriously when it comes to the internet. Internet censorship? Worth taking seriously. Someone who can't fathom a WR discussion in a thread specifically intended to be about WR issues? Worth mocking, but not worth taking seriously.

 

[Hyped]

Our offense is far more vertical than it has been in the past. Patterson (sub 4.5/40) and Dorsett (4.24/40 at the combine) can take the top off a D...and Hogan is good at getting open deep...as is Gronk.

Gonna come down to blocking up front....but Brady can hit those guys if he can't dump off the ball.

 

[captain stone]

Decker?

 

[rochrist]

Decker?

If nobody else has reported it, they've signed Decker to a one year deal.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Our offense is far more vertical than it has been in the past. Patterson (sub 4.5/40) and Dorsett (4.24/40 at the combine) can take the top off a D...and Hogan is good at getting open deep...as is Gronk.

Gonna come down to blocking up front....but Brady can hit those guys if he can't dump off the ball.

Patterson is not a vertical threat and Dorsett has not proven it.

The only proven vertical threat on the roster is Hogs.

You could argue Gronk is deep intermediate

 

[Dingleberry]

I take pretty much nothing seriously when it comes to the internet. Internet censorship? Worth taking seriously. Someone who can't fathom a WR discussion in a thread specifically intended to be about WR issues? Worth mocking, but not worth taking seriously.

I, too abhor internet censorship. I also support the death penalty and the flat tax. Not sure what any of them have to do with this thread.

Oh wait, I get it! You twisted my initial post into a call for censorship. I already said your shtick was cute, but at least try to be intellectually honest. I stated that I didn't get the angst over the WR situation because of strengths at TE and RB. It was an OPINION on the other side of the premise of this thread that we're f'd. That's the type of thing that usually creates interesting discussion and back and forth. It seems that many have agreed with my point, and many have disagreed. Oh that pesky censorship. Taking the other side of a thread premise is inferred to demand nobody talk about it? That's an impressive leap and quite the liberal interpretation of the word censorship.

You chose dismiss my opinion in a kunty, condescending manner. The mocking you prefer doesn't do much for discourse, but it is more interesting. I'll give you that.

Like I said, others may find your shtick offputting. I think it's adorable. I'd offer you a reach-around, but I fear you'd critique my handy work.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I expect them to make a move from here. Decker or someone else. But it needs to be done or else there's going to be some rough sledding in the first 4 weeks of the season for the passing game.

Game, Set and Match, Kontra

 

[maineman209]

Patterson is not a vertical threat and Dorsett has not proven it.

The only proven vertical threat on the roster is Hogs.

You could argue Gronk is deep intermediate

Paterson's average depth of target for the past two seasons is under 5 yards. His ypc is 68% YAC. Not a vertical route threat.

In 2016, when Gronk and Hogan were, respectively, #1 & #2 in the league in ypc (for the games that Gronk was healthy), Gronk's depth of target was about the same as Hogan's (Gronk had a slightly higher YAC%).

In 2017, Dorsett's depth of target was much higher than Gronk's, and just under what Hogan's had been in 2016. Cooks' 2017 depth of target was significantly higher than any of Gronk, Hogan or Dorsett over the past two seasons.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Have to admit I'm a lil surprised so many have Patterson's role twisted. Reminds me of when people thought Cooks was an AB type & good rr.

5 min's after he was here - Elite/Best return man in the league by far. Gadget player you have to create for.

We don't need him to be & shouldn't expect much more than that.

 

[maineman209]

Have to admit I'm a lil surprised so many have Patterson's role twisted. Reminds me of when people thought Cooks was an AB type & good rr.

5 min's after he was here - Elite/Best return man in the league by far. Gadget player you have to create for.

We don't need him to be & shouldn't expect much more than that.

From what I've seen, Patterson basically takes misdirection hand-offs and dump-off range passes and turns them into good yardage by steamrolling would-be tacklers - the kind of plays that, if timed correctly, can break a defense's concentration, if not its spirit.

And, in between those scrimmage touches, his tackle-breaking physicality can be well-used blocking for others.

He seems more like a hybrid RB/FB/WR to me than a WR.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

From what I've seen, Patterson basically takes misdirection hand-offs and dump-off range passes and turns them into good yardage by steamrolling would-be tacklers - the kind of plays that, if timed correctly, can break a defense's concentration, if not its spirit.

And, in between those scrimmage touches, his tackle-breaking physicality can be well-used blocking for others.

He seems more like a hybrid RB/FB/WR to me than a WR.

Exactly, he'll get in where he fits in. We'll give him manufactured touches & he'll be that "big play threat" w teams #3-4 DB'S on him focusing on 11-87-our RB'S etc

 

[Mack Herron]

Reminder of the benchmark:

 

[RobertWeathers]

Paterson's average depth of target for the past two seasons is under 5 yards. His ypc is 68% YAC. Not a vertical route threat.

In 2016, when Gronk and Hogan were, respectively, #1 & #2 in the league in ypc (for the games that Gronk was healthy), Gronk's depth of target was about the same as Hogan's (Gronk had a slightly higher YAC%).

In 2017, Dorsett's depth of target was much higher than Gronk's, and just under what Hogan's had been in 2016. Cooks' 2017 depth of target was significantly higher than any of Gronk, Hogan or Dorsett over the past two seasons.

Yep.

I still don't see Dorsett at a deep threat

 

[maineman209]

Yep.

I still don't see Dorsett at a deep threat

Hogan is clearly a significant threat on verticals and deep-crossers. And he's probably better at those than on other routes.

Dorsett was used similarly to some degree - in 2016 with Indy - and got open on verticals and deep-crossers with the Pats last season without being targeted. It remains to be seen how the Pats use him this year, but I sincerely hope that opposing defenses don't see him as a "deep threat", either.

 

[DarrylS]

Jo Jo LaFell anyone?? Maybe he has straightened out his head, he does know the system and its expectations..