The Official 'I'd like to Revise my Won-Loss Prediction' Thread

[Deus Irae]

Re: in August we were 10-6 at best how bout now?

Predictions for the team ran a wide range, with most people coming between 9-11 wins. Given that we've already got a "revised win total" thread, I'm not sure what purpose this thread is supposed to serve.

 

[mosi]

Re: in August we were 10-6 at best how bout now?

The difference between winning and loosing is a play here or a play there. The key to to work hard on every play. If the Pats keep doing that, they will be competitive. If they get lazy and start thinking they can win just by showing up, they will be in trouble.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: in August we were 10-6 at best how bout now?

Simply projecting 4-1 to the end of season we end up with 12-4.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Re: in August we were 10-6 at best how bout now?

Some of these threads are therapy either due to guilt or abject unobjectiveness.

For my self I never doubt what Bill can achieve ... never but I am realistic in that we are competing with 31 other teams for coaches and players. We have no exclusive path to the Super Bowl.

On any given week the worst teams can look great ... so we never know who we will lose to. I guessed 11 wins but let's face it ... we're rebuilding and this is all gravy IMO.

 

[jmt57]

I've been thinking 10-6 from mid-summer right through till last week, though I'll admit I was considering lowering that to 9-7 after Warren, Bodden and Faulk went on IR. I'm going to up that now to 11-5 based on how the defense and special teams have played the last two games - and also in part because some of the other teams on the Pats schedule don't look quite as formidable now as they did several weeks ago.

 

[jmt57]

Looks like I may have to at least consider revising my prediction again already.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Schedule Analysis

The Pats are 5-1 with 10 games left in the regular season.

The Patriots in the pre-season rated to be the underdogs to the Bengals, @ Jets, @ Dolphins, Ravens, perhaps the Vikings, @ Chargers, @ Steelers, perhaps Colts.

They have played 5 of 8, with all but the Vikings, @ Steelers, and Colts. The Vikings, like the Bengals and Chargers, do not look like the preseason expectations, nor do the Colts. The toughest game remaining, and the only one sure to be as an underdog, is @ Steelers. The Patriots very young and immature on Defense, have navigated to a 5-1 record despite the Iron they have played.

Simply projecting the same winning ratio forward, they project to finish with a 13-3 record. That would be despite a theoretically weaker set of remaining opponents.

Ironically if one of those additional losses, is to the Jets, they might only get in as a Wildcard with that awesome record. It's shades of being shutout of the Playoffs, with an 11-5 record in 2008.

Last year the Patriots played the Iron on the road, and the weaker sisters at home. They finished 2-6 on the road, and 8-0 at home, getting a reputation for not holding leads in the fourth
Quarter on the road. This year most of the Iron comes to Gillette and the weaker sisters are on the road.

What are your new orrevised record projections at this point of the season?

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Schedule Analysis

putting a "W" next to a team you are favored to beat, and adding those up, is a very flawed way to project wins. it treats being a very small favorite (say, home again the Jets) and being a huge favorite (say home against Cleveland) as the same. obviously thats not right.

a much better way to do it is based off the projected winning probability to give to each game.

for instance, this week the Pats moneyline is currently -250. that means the wisdom of crowds/betting market says the Pats have a 71% chance to win the game. so, mark that down as .71 wins

now, do that for every single game remaining. add up how many wins you get

that is a much better way than projecting either a Win or a Loss

or, you could just wait until tomorrow when Football Outsiders updates their playoff odds report. they run a 10,000 scenario model based off their propriety rankings, which at this point converges pretty closely with the betting market. my guess is they project us to finish with 11.4 wins. (obviously you can't finish with a fraction of a win, this just indicated that starting 5-1, we are just about equally likely to finish with 11 or 12 wins)

 

[captain stone]

I'm changing my prediction of 10-6 to 11-5..

Over the next 2 weeks, the Pats should beat the Vikings at home,
but they might get shut out at PitsDirt; that's how piss-poor their offense is on the road..

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

10-6 is STILL my guess

I think at least a few of our rookies may hit the perverbial wall come winter.

 

[jsull87]

it's a great start to the season no doubt... but at the start of the season i said 10-6 if i was a betting man and 11-5 is what i was hoping for... i am sticking with those numbers. We still have some very hard games coming up and as others have said we might be hitting the rookie wall come November.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I'm still thinking 11-5, but the over on that is looking more realistic by the week.

 

[patsfan13]

I was at 17-2, that is my story and I'm sticking to it. Hope P Chung's leg is ok.

 

[ausbacker]

I projected the Patriots to be a 10-6 or 11-5 team. With the remaining schedule I think 12-4 may be a possibility if they continue to win the close ones.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I was a 10-6 predictor... but looking at that schedule and how it looks NOW compared to the start of the season I can see the potential to escape the rest of the season with no more than 2 losses.

Of course any game is loseable but they've got some hard fought ugly wins under their belt - and that can be a good thing sometimes.

That's part of what makes this sport great - just a small swing in terms of injury and intensity and a 10-6 season can become a 13-3 season... or vice versa.

My qualifier to all of that is Alge Crumpler's health. He didn't look good on Sunday and I think that's part of why they looked so sloppy. Hopefully that says more about the Chargers skill on Defense more than his capabilities, but it wouldn't surprise me if more teams tried to put pressure on Brady by focusing on Crumpler after this game.

 

[Joker]

yeah...well, I'm a Pats homer...at least that's where I fall in the Homer/CL's demarcation on this board. I figured the Pats for 8-8....MAYBE 9-7 with a break or two. Looking at their home performance so far,and how they showed up to play in Miami, I don't think 10-6 is unreasonable...as the team is currently constituted. Anything more than that I save for sleepytime when I'm dreaming....:sleeping:

 

[VectorPrime]

yeah...well, I'm a Pats homer...at least that's where I fall in the Homer/CL's demarcation on this board. I figured the Pats for 8-8....MAYBE 9-7 with a break or two. Looking at their home performance so far,and how they showed up to play in Miami, I don't think 10-6 is unreasonable...as the team is currently constituted. Anything more than that I save for sleepytime when I'm dreaming....:sleeping:

You don't think 10-6 is unreasonable? Like you have to carefully consider our chances to get to 10-6 before settling on it? Come on, they will not lose half their remaining games.

 

[Nikolai]

Well, I said 11-5 (linky in my sig). I also had them at 3-3 by this point. If I were being truthful, I'd have to admit that 13-3 looks good, but I'll stick by my 11-5 prediction, even if it's looking wrong.

 

[Joker]

You don't think 10-6 is unreasonable? Like you have to carefully consider our chances to get to 10-6 before settling on it? Come on, they will not lose half their remaining games.

well...if you go back to the start...where most of the Pats homers had it before the season started was 10-6 and up...like I said, I saw it as 8-8...so yes,I don't think 10-6 is unreasonable now...why that offends you puzzles me...like I won't accept 11-5 OR 12-4??? I just prefer to be cautiously conservative...

 

[Nikolai]

well...if you go back to the start...where most of the Pats homers had it before the season started was 10-6 and up...like I said, I saw it as 8-8...so yes,I don't think 10-6 is unreasonable now...why that offends you puzzles me...like I won't accept 11-5 OR 12-4??? I just prefer to be cautiously conservative...

So far, the "homers" have it right. I based my 11-5 prediction on what I thought was a solid analysis.

Either way, 10-6 would represent quite the collapse (5-5 the rest of the way) relative to how the team has started.