The Offensive Line conundrum

[ATippett56]

No they don't because neither player was drafted or signed by the Patriots. I am not saying that a good vertical jump makes a good center. I am saying that for an O Lineman to be drafted by the Patriots, the chances are he needs a good vertical jump in and around 30". That is all I'm saying. If you bothered to read rather than making assumptions you'd see that.

That does not explain Ted Larsen, who was drafted in this decade.

Ted Larsen | North Carolina State, C : 2010 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

Ted Larsen = 24" Vertical Jump (combine result)

 

[manxman2601]

There are a number of OL excluded from your list so the correlation may be more or less than what you showed.
Additionally, the Patriots have always valued athletic OL. The screen game, pass heavy offense and propensity to pull and trap makes that an important characteristic.
More athletic can tend to mean better jumper, but does not have to.
I think what you see is that the Patriots have certain characteristics that they look for and those characteristics tend to make them better jumpers too.

That's possible. But just as I can't be sure that the vertical leap is a priori, you can't be certain it isn't. When you take into the consideration that other athletic measurements are important at Defensive End and the skill positions, the importance of athletic thresholds within our scouting system is given more credence. All I know is that if I'm looking at who might be our next offensive lineman in the draft, I'm more likely to find him by looking at vertical jumps than other measures.

 

[manxman2601]

That does not explain Ted Larsen, who was drafted in this decade.

Ted Larsen*|*North Carolina State,*C*:*2010 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

Ted Larsen = 24" Vertical Jump (combine result)

And I've already said that that's an exemption. And I've also made clear that this is about offensive linemen generally and not necessarily centers. Good Lord man. Will you read what I've written before arguing against it!

 

[manxman2601]

Manx, I don't think he was being combative. I think he's just trying to see if all or most of the acknowledged best centers in the league have had strong VJ's. If guys like the Pouncey's and Mack had 30'' or more VJ's it would bolster your hypothesis. And just who are considered the best 5 C's in the NFL these days. I'd like to know that as well.

This is one of the reasons I'm glad I continued this thread. I have never heard of this correlation between the VJ and success in offensive linemen. But now that its been brought up, it makes some sense. I learned something new today. That being said, I also think an OLman's 3 cone and short shuttle can be just as important. Especially in this day and age, quick feet are critical weapons to an offensive lineman in the passing game.

BTW- Volmer's 36" VJ is just sick for a guy his size

When he talks about "mythical" thresholds, he's being combative.

And those names do nothing to my thesis because my thesis is only about predicting potential draftees for the Patriots on the O Line. I have not said anything about what makes a good center and wouldn't claim to.

And I should point out that this thesis is nothing new. I got it from Box O'Rocks a couple of years ago, a well respected participant. He was talking about high draft picks on the OL, I adapted his thinking to draftees and signings as a whole.

 

[ATippett56]

And I've already said that that's an exemption. And I've also made clear that this is about offensive linemen generally and not necessarily centers. Good Lord man. Will you read what I've written before arguing against it!

Since the Ted Larsen draft selection refutes your theory, you just dismiss the evidence outright.

Gotcha!

How about all the centers in the NFL with notoriety:

Maurkice Pouncey = 27" Vertical Jump
Mike Pouncey = 25" Vertical Jump
Ryan Kalil = 26" Vertical Jump
Max Unger = 24.5" Vertical Jump
Nick Mangold = 27.5" Vertical Jump

None of the aforementioned centers meets your 28" vertical jump criteria. It's a fishing expedition, nothing more nothing less.

 

[manxman2601]

Since the Ted Larsen draft selection refutes your theory, you just dismiss the evidence outright.

Gotcha!

How about all the centers in the NFL with notoriety:

Maurkice Pouncey = 27" Vertical Jump
Mike Pouncey = 25" Vertical Jump
Ryan Kalil = 26" Vertical Jump
Max Unger = 24.5" Vertical Jump
Nick Mangold = 27.5" Vertical Jump

None of the aforementioned centers meets your 28" vertical jump criteria. It's a fishing expedition, nothing more nothing less.

I have nothing more left to say except to ask you how many times you need to be told that this is not about centers generally but Patriot offensive linemen specifically before it sinks in?

 

[ATippett56]

I have nothing more left to say except to ask you how many times you need to be told that this is not about centers generally but Patriot offensive linemen specifically before it sinks in?

Answer the question:

Do the New England Patriots currently have an offensive tackle conundrum?

 

[manxman2601]

Answer the question:

Do the New England Patriots currently have an offensive tackle conundrum?

Never said they did.

 

[ATippett56]

I have nothing more left to say except to ask you how many times you need to be told that this is not about centers generally but Patriot offensive linemen specifically before it sinks in?

Regardless of the aforementioned criteria, rate the top five offensive centers in this draft. It's obvious that offensive tackle is not the main priority in resolving the "offensive line conundrum".

 

[manxman2601]

Regardless of the aforementioned criteria, rate the top five offensive centers in this draft. It's obvious that offensive tackle is not the main priority in resolving the "offensive line conundrum".

Offensive guard might be part of the conundrum though and historically the Patriots draft tackles to play guard. I make no claims about center. Maybe the threshold doesn't apply on centers, I can see why they might not.

 

[AzPatsFan]

THe most importnt observation yo make about this draft is the gret quanrity of good Offensive linmen availalble. It appears that there may be six tackles and 5 -6 tackles/guards that merit a first or second round selection. There are no great C candidates, but several who merit mid-late picks who might develop.

1) So there is an unusually great supply of talent

2) The Pats interior line is old, and outside of Mankins not greatly talented.

3) Brady was sacked 40 times in 2013, twice or three times the historical number.

4) Brady's mobility comes from shuffling around and stepping up into the pocket, except there seldom was a pocket to step up into,

Therefor Take advantage of the situation and load up, DRAFT one or even two Offensive linemen. There is even the possibility to take one late in the draft.

Keeping Brady healthy and upright, is the #1 need for this Super Bowl contender.

 

[ATippett56]

Offensive guard might be part of the conundrum though and historically the Patriots draft tackles to play guard. I make no claims about center. Maybe the threshold doesn't apply on centers, I can see why they might not.

It seems that offensive center is the main issue or number one priority on the New England Patriots offensive line. In addition, some posters on this message board question the value of Ryan Wendell's contract let alone Dan Connolly's.

Whether Wendell or Connolly is the answer at the center position for the 2014 NFL season remains to be seen. I certainly hope the New England Patriots address the interior offensive line deficiencies via the 2014 NFL Draft.

Personally, I view Braxston Cave as nothing more than a long shot since he never was promoted to the 53 man roster last season.

 

[Gumby]

OK, that's up to you. I provide the evidence, how other people treat that evidence is up to them - and I don't mean that aggressively, I just don't have an agenda, I'm oly interested in the empirical data.

ok, empirical data. I took yours and re-worked it a little bit.

1. I added in a couple of players the patriots drafted that you didnt mention
2. I added the data of year and draft round
3. I coudlnt find much VJ data on many players so a lot have ???s.

Here is my revised list; sorted in a data point I seem to find a lot more relevant to success criteria than VJ; that is....... DRAFT ROUND

[FONT=&quot]Logan Mankins ?? Rd 1, 2005[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Nate Solder – 32 Rd1 – 2011
Sebastian Vollmer - 36.5 Rd 2 2009
Nick Kaczur - 31.5 Rd 3 2005[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Clint Oldenburg - 30" Rd 5 2007
Marcus Cannon - 30.5 Rd 5 - 2011
Dan Koppen - 28.5" Rd 5, 2003
Donald Thomas - 29.5" Rd 6(Mia) 2008[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Dan Connolly - 28.5 UDRFA(Jags) 2005
------------------Bust Line------------
Rich Ohrnberger ?? Rd 4 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Ryan O'Callaghan - 26" Rd 5 2006
George Bussey ?? Rd 5 2009 0 yrs [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jake Ingram ?? Rd 6 2009 2yrs[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Corey Hilliard - 29" Rd 6 2007
Ted Larsen - 26" Rd 6 2010
Dan Stevenson - 24.5 Rd 6 2006
Mike Elgin ?? Rd 7 2007[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Thomas Welch – 29 Rd 7 2010 (4yrs now 2 w/ Buffy)

[/FONT] Note that guys with draft rounds 6+ are generally not sticking around the league or at least the patriots long (even if they do have +28 VJ. guys in the 4-5 are 50/50, and guys in the 1-3 generally have careers.

I think the fact that guys who get drafted higher are generally more athletic so they would be more likely to have a higher VJ is just as likely a reason (coincidence) as to believe that the patriots are actually looking for this criteria.

And your point that only 30% of the combine has a +28 VJ doesnt do much for me either. Probably only 30% of the combine makes it to the NFL (for more than 1 season anyway). That isnt comparing apples to apples. And I dont know that the patriots hi ratio of +28s is any different than any other nfl team (athletic guys have careers).

I still have a little open mind as the 3-cone correlation with the patriots seems pretty substantiated AND it is different from much of rest of league. But so far I havent seen enough to believe it isnt either coincidence or related to generla athleticism.

 

[Gumby]

Having just scanned through the NEP draft history looking for data on Manxman's VJ point, I came up with an interesting observation.

In the past 10 years BB has drafted OL in all but 4 years. And when he drafted OL, he generally drafted multiples (2, 2, 4, 3, 2, 2):
The 0 years were:
2004
2008
2012
2013

hmmmm, seems like he is a bit overdue.
I suspect we will see him pick up as many as 3 OL throughout all 7 rnds.

but If 2 of the first 3 picks address DL and interior OL, I'll be happy. (2 of first 4 is grudingly ok)

 

[manxman2601]

ok, empirical data. I took yours and re-worked it a little bit.

1. I added in a couple of players the patriots drafted that you didnt mention
2. I added the data of year and draft round
3. I coudlnt find much VJ data on many players so a lot have ???s.

Here is my revised list; sorted in a data point I seem to find a lot more relevant to success criteria than VJ; that is....... DRAFT ROUND

[FONT=&quot]Logan Mankins ?? Rd 1, 2005[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Nate Solder – 32 Rd1 – 2011
Sebastian Vollmer - 36.5 Rd 2 2009
Nick Kaczur - 31.5 Rd 3 2005[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Clint Oldenburg - 30" Rd 5 2007
Marcus Cannon - 30.5 Rd 5 - 2011
Dan Koppen - 28.5" Rd 5, 2003
Donald Thomas - 29.5" Rd 6(Mia) 2008[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Dan Connolly - 28.5 UDRFA(Jags) 2005
------------------Bust Line------------
Rich Ohrnberger ?? Rd 4 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Ryan O'Callaghan - 26" Rd 5 2006
George Bussey ?? Rd 5 2009 0 yrs [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jake Ingram ?? Rd 6 2009 2yrs[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Corey Hilliard - 29" Rd 6 2007
Ted Larsen - 26" Rd 6 2010
Dan Stevenson - 24.5 Rd 6 2006
Mike Elgin ?? Rd 7 2007[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Thomas Welch – 29 Rd 7 2010 (4yrs now 2 w/ Buffy)

[/FONT] Note that guys with draft rounds 6+ are generally not sticking around the league or at least the patriots long (even if they do have +28 VJ. guys in the 4-5 are 50/50, and guys in the 1-3 generally have careers.

I think the fact that guys who get drafted higher are generally more athletic so they would be more likely to have a higher VJ is just as likely a reason (coincidence) as to believe that the patriots are actually looking for this criteria.

And your point that only 30% of the combine has a +28 VJ doesnt do much for me either. Probably only 30% of the combine makes it to the NFL (for more than 1 season anyway). That isnt comparing apples to apples. And I dont know that the patriots hi ratio of +28s is any different than any other nfl team (athletic guys have careers).

I still have a little open mind as the 3-cone correlation with the patriots seems pretty substantiated AND it is different from much of rest of league. But so far I havent seen enough to believe it isnt either coincidence or related to generla athleticism.

Fair enough. Bear in mind that I put this in the draft forum for a reason. I see it as an aid in predicting who might be a Patriots pick, not in predicting who might be successful That was why I came up with it in the first place. I don't really feel a need to convince anyone of it and am always open to contrary interpretations.

Edit: According to NFL Draft Scout, Logan Mankins had a 31.5" at the combine. You had him down as a question mark.

 

[Ring 6]

Couldn't resist a shot at criticism, Andy? It was pretty clear that I was talking about the 2011 season. Sorry that my typo confused you.

Its not a typo.
I was referring to this:

Connolly had every chance to establish himself as the 2012 starting C and failed to beat out Wendell in a direct competition.

Wendell never beat out Connolly. Connolly started 11 games in 2011 and Wendell 3.

 

[Ring 6]

That's possible. But just as I can't be sure that the vertical leap is a priori, you can't be certain it isn't. When you take into the consideration that other athletic measurements are important at Defensive End and the skill positions, the importance of athletic thresholds within our scouting system is given more credence. All I know is that if I'm looking at who might be our next offensive lineman in the draft, I'm more likely to find him by looking at vertical jumps than other measures.

But that kind of is my point though, that it is coincidental. In other words, the players drafted shared many characteristics, at a 70% or something like that frequency. Some cause them to be drafted, others follow.
There is no way to know without asking someone in the personel department, but my opinion is that the decision to draft an OL depends on other criteria than vertical jump.
For example if 2 players are otherwise equal but differ in vertical jump plus one other measurable (40 time, bench reps, 3 cone, etc) I would assume the Patriots would value those other measurables over jumping.
I think if you looked at all measurables you would find a similar cutoff line for 70% of the picks.

 

[Galeb]

Too bad this thread didn't happen a couple of months ago. Since BB regularly consults this forum, he certainly would have recommended the abolition of the vertical jump to the competition committee.

Manxman, the info you posted was excellent. Please don't let the noise get to you.

 

[manxman2601]

But that kind of is my point though, that it is coincidental. In other words, the players drafted shared many characteristics, at a 70% or something like that frequency. Some cause them to be drafted, others follow.
There is no way to know without asking someone in the personel department, but my opinion is that the decision to draft an OL depends on other criteria than vertical jump.
For example if 2 players are otherwise equal but differ in vertical jump plus one other measurable (40 time, bench reps, 3 cone, etc) I would assume the Patriots would value those other measurables over jumping.
I think if you looked at all measurables you would find a similar cutoff line for 70% of the picks.

This is guesswork though. Why would they value those other vertical jump when there's clear evidence that they value the vertical jump. Vertical jump is a measure of lower body explosiveness, the very trait you wasn't from an offensive lineman who has to power into a block. I do not see why so many people have an issue seeing the possible connection.

As for your final sentence, prove your thesis. As I've looked and seen no other pattern, I think this is wrong. (Edit: I don't mean this to sound so aggressive. I just mean that I'm willing to hear evidence to the contrary).

For example, Nate Solder ran a 4.96 40, Nick Kazcur a 5.28. Vollmer had a 7.51 3-cone, Marcus Cannon a 8.07. There is some correlation between our high picks on the OL and the short shuttle, something else which makes sense in terms of measuring a lineman's short area quickness, but it's not as pronounced a correlation as the VJ one is. I'm confident that VJ is a useful method of judging the likelihood of a Patriot draft pick on the OL, however I can accept that it might be less applicable for a center. We shall see in a months time possibly.

I would just note that Shelley Smith who they brought in for a visit had a 34" VJ which I've just noticed

 

[Luxusdk]

Regarding Center, then i beleave its the same for them as QB, brain power is better then numbers. But combinded then you have ELITE status potential.