The Offense Without Gronk

[Triumph]

Defenses will now key on Vereen, and take him out of the offense.

Edelman and Vereen are now the 2 main weapons that Brady trusts.

NE needs more from Almendola, Bolden, Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce. Boyce has some moves out there.

 

[IndianPat]

There is only one player that matters to this team. He must be protected at all times and given time to perform. To me, the health and performance of the OL is the determining factor in how far TB12 can take this team - be it with Vereen, Mulligan or Collie! Hope, Cannon comes back soon.

 

[Crononaut]

The idea of a 2RB set actually sounds pretty appealing to me, and I think it may be the best allocation of our talent.

I was going to make a separate thread for this, but I'll just post it here:

Obviously this might be jumping the gun a bit as we're still not through their first season, but given the information we have to go by at this moment, has this been the best WR draft class in the Belichick era? At least in the past 6-7 years? A 2nd rounder, 4th rounder, and UFDA... perhaps none of them have shown elite receiver ability, but Dobson looks like a legitimate outside threat, Thompkins has GREATLY improved at being physical and getting separation, and Boyce, while still raw, looks like he has the potential to be the BEST find of the bunch!

Maybe this is premature, and maybe Boyce doesn't 'get there', and Thompkins and Dobson reach disappointing plateaus. But given the lack of success we've had drafting WRs over the previous years, to be in a position where we may have hit on all three of our choices seems pretty remarkable.

 

[Fixit]

One positive is that they have a month to work someone else into the offense. The last two times Gronk got hurt, it was 1) right before the SB, and b) the week before we met the Ravens in the playoffs.

Mulligan looked like a competent fill-in. And I can't be the only guy who's falling hard in man-love for Develin. SIGN THE BEAST!

 

[IllegalContact]

Defenses will now key on Vereen, and take him out of the offense.

the slot guys will be wide open then.

I would consider using vereen the way the pats used to use hernandez, and have him out there when blount or ridley are out there

 

[NYCPatsFan]

However, Gronk left the field in the third quarter. The next play Brady got strip-sacked. But after that, they had five possessions. Here's what they did on those next 5 possessions: FG, TD, FG, TD, TD.

Brady: 20-27 (one spike), 74.1%, 259 yes, 9.6 ypa, 2 td, 0 int

Now, I am NOT arguing that the offense will be better without one of the best players in football. What I *AM* saying is that I think it's conceivable that this offense plays at a pretty high level the rest of the way.

......... The Gronk injury is horrible, horrible news on many levels, but as a Patriots' fan, I still have some optimism that they can make a serious run here.

First - let me say that I absolutely share your thoughts and your optimism.

that said, I am curious about the #s you posted on our O once Gronk left.

It is tempting to use that as a base and hope that the 'pretty high level' continues rest of the way but how much of that high level is due to the Browns D suddenly dealing with "Gronk-less" schemes the rest of the game?

Wouldn't they have prepared for Gronk being in for most snaps and so a bit unprepared for the multiple WRs for the reminder of the game?

That IMO could be a plausible explanation for the flurry of scores we managed to suddenly obtain only in the fourth Q.

Follow-up thought assuming my theory is correct: wouldn't other teams D be better prepared to face our O, especially if BB and Josh are forced to use the game plans we used prior to Gronk and AH's days?

 

[ivanvamp]

First - let me say that I absolutely share your thoughts and your optimism.

that said, I am curious about the #s you posted on our O once Gronk left.

It is tempting to use that as a base and hope that the 'pretty high level' continues rest of the way but how much of that high level is due to the Browns D suddenly dealing with "Gronk-less" schemes the rest of the game?

Wouldn't they have prepared for Gronk being in for most snaps and so a bit unprepared for the multiple WRs for the reminder of the game?

That IMO could be a plausible explanation for the flurry of scores we managed to suddenly obtain only in the fourth Q.

Follow-up thought assuming my theory is correct: wouldn't other teams D be better prepared to face our O, especially if BB and Josh are forced to use the game plans we used prior to Gronk and AH's days?

I think it cuts both ways. The Browns had to suddenly adjust to a Gronk-less offense by NE, but the Patriots had to suddenly adjust to working without him as well.

Obviously I don't think they're going to average 5 points a possession without Gronk. I'm just saying that they were VERY effective without him, and I think it's primarily because of Vereen and the improvement in the WR position from early in the year. There are still lots of targets for Brady. The key is the OL run and pass blocking. They do their job, this offense will still score points.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

X's and O's - without Gronk

I am not much of an X's and O's guy but I am curious to know what offensive direction/philosophy (aided by any defensive changes) do we all think this team will follow from here on out in 2013 minus 87 for the rest of the year.

I personally would love to see more screens, that has always been our bread and butter play and Vareen, Ridley and Edleman are good in the open field. Do we have the lineman to get upfield? Can this group of wideouts effectively block for these plays?

How much time will 85 now get? I would love to be able to see some more seam routes but those could be very dangerous on this group.

I don't like this groups ability to run the in cuts. Thompkins has been running a lot of that route lately.

I mean you obviously still take what the defense gives you but pre-snap without Gronk makes it harder of TFB to call plays.

What say you?

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Re: X's and O's - without Gronk

This discussion started yesterday...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/1079235-offense-without-gronk.html

 

[Ring 6]

Defenses will now key on Vereen, and take him out of the offense.

They will try. I doubt they will succeed without opening up something else to exploit.

 

[ivanvamp]

Obviously Gronk brings so much to the team offensively - a huge target that is nearly uncoverable, great run blocking skills, a threat on every level, etc. But one place where you really see the difference is in the red zone.

I looked back on this season and just charted the games where he played and games where he did not. Obviously sometimes there was a game where he played but wasn't in on a particular snap, etc. But here are the red zone numbers in games with Gronk and games without Gronk.

Record
- With: 5-2
- W/O: 5-2

Points per game
- With: 32.0
- W/O: 20.7

Red Zone trips per game
- With: 4.4 (31 in 7 games)
- W/O: 3.6 (25 in 7 games)

Red Zone TD%
- With: 67.7% (21 td in 31 RZ trips)
- W/O: 40.0% (10 td in 25 RZ trips)

Red Zone FG%
- With: 22.6% (7 fg in 31 RZ trips)
- W/O: 44.0% (11 fg in 25 RZ trips)

Red Zone scoring %
- With: 90.3% (28 scores in 31 RZ trips)
- W/O: 84.0% (21 scores in 25 RZ trips)

Red Zone turnover %
- With: 9.7% (3 turnovers in 31 RZ trips)
- W/O: 16.0% (4 turnovers in 25 RZ trips)

Average points per RZ trip
- With: 5.4
- W/O: 4.1

RZ points per game
- With: 4.4 x 5.4 = 23.8
- W/O: 3.6 x 4.1 = 14.8

Now, you might be saying, wait a minute, in the Cleveland game they had all their red zone opportunities without Gronk, as he was injured before they made their first RZ trip. Ok, let's re-do the numbers with the Cleveland stats going in the "without Gronk" column. Here's the numbers again:

Red Zone trips per game
- With: 3.9
- W/O: 4.1

Red Zone TD%
- With: 66.7% (18 td in 27 RZ trips)
- W/O: 44.8% (12 td in 29 RZ trips)

Red Zone FG%
- With: 22.2% (6 fg in 27 RZ trips)
- W/O: 41.4% (12 fg in 29 RZ trips)

Red Zone scoring %
- With: 88.9% (24 scores in 27 RZ trips)
- W/O: 86.2% (25 scores in 29 RZ trips)

Red Zone turnover %
- With: 11.1% (3 turnovers in 27 RZ trips)
- W/O: 13.8% (4 turnovers in 29 RZ trips)

Average points per RZ trip
- With: 5.3
- W/O: 4.4

So they're averaging nearly a full point more per red zone trip. Over the course of a game, here's the difference in points:

- With: 3.9 x 5.3 = 20.7 RZ points per game
- W/O: 4.1 x 4.4 = 18.0 RZ points per game

Seems like not very much until you realize that virtually every one of their games this year has been really close. And if the Pats had those nearly three points extra yesterday, they could have kicked a game-winning field goal instead of having to score a touchdown.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Let's assume that he's done for the year. What does that mean for the 2013 offense?

Well, let's first break it down into two segments:

W/O Gronk: 6 g, 20.8 pts, 348.8 yds, 19.7 first downs
With Gronk: 6 g, 32.8 pts, 406.7 yds, 26.0 first downs

Ok, it's a CLEAR step up with Gronk vs. without. But notice I only included twelve games. I left off Cleveland. Why? Because it's a game technically with Gronk, but I want to point out something very interesting.

On the whole, the Patriots put up 27 points and 484 yards. Brady went 32-52, 418 yds, 2 td, 1 int. Pretty awesome day overall.

However, Gronk left the field in the third quarter. The next play Brady got strip-sacked. But after that, they had five possessions. Here's what they did on those next 5 possessions: FG, TD, FG, TD, TD.

Brady: 20-27 (one spike), 74.1%, 259 yes, 9.6 ypa, 2 td, 0 int

Now, I am NOT arguing that the offense will be better without one of the best players in football. What I *AM* saying is that I think it's conceivable that this offense plays at a pretty high level the rest of the way. Why?

(1) Shane Vereen is back. He's a dynamic playmaker. Having him healthy is huge. He's a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.

(2) The rookies are starting to get it. Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins have all shown tremendous improvement from the start of the year, just as many of us hoped they would. Still far from finished products, as a group they are much, much better than they were at the start. They do need Dobson and Thompkins back healthy though.

(3) The health of Amendola and Edelman. These two guys are really solid.

(4) The emergence of Blount. At the beginning of the year he looked slow and somewhat disinterested. He's an absolute jackhammer now. Very nice weapon.

Again, I don't think this is an elite offense without Gronk. I do think they can score in the upper 20's, though, consistently, without him. Then it becomes a matter of whether the defense can keep them in games.

Long story short, this team very much has a puncher's chance to do some serious damage in the playoffs still, even without Gronk. The Gronk injury is horrible, horrible news on many levels, but as a Patriots' fan, I still have some optimism that they can make a serious run here.

The Patriots have a lot more weapons on offense than just Gronk. Unfortunately they have an offensive coordinator who simply refuses to use what he has. Where was Vereen yesterday?? See any screens?? Ever see Vereen and Ridley out there together?? How about Ridley in the backfield and sending Vereen in motion to give the Dolphins something to think about?? How about Vereen outside to draw a favorable matchup? How about incorporating Ridley into this pass offense??
There are players on this offense with definite NFL skills whose skill sets are not being utilized.

 

[captain stone]

I completely agree. Skippy ThanksDad McD's Goal-to-Go play-calling is garbage.