The Offense Without Gronk

[ivanvamp]

Let's assume that he's done for the year. What does that mean for the 2013 offense?

Well, let's first break it down into two segments:

W/O Gronk: 6 g, 20.8 pts, 348.8 yds, 19.7 first downs
With Gronk: 6 g, 32.8 pts, 406.7 yds, 26.0 first downs

Ok, it's a CLEAR step up with Gronk vs. without. But notice I only included twelve games. I left off Cleveland. Why? Because it's a game technically with Gronk, but I want to point out something very interesting.

On the whole, the Patriots put up 27 points and 484 yards. Brady went 32-52, 418 yds, 2 td, 1 int. Pretty awesome day overall.

However, Gronk left the field in the third quarter. The next play Brady got strip-sacked. But after that, they had five possessions. Here's what they did on those next 5 possessions: FG, TD, FG, TD, TD.

Brady: 20-27 (one spike), 74.1%, 259 yes, 9.6 ypa, 2 td, 0 int

Now, I am NOT arguing that the offense will be better without one of the best players in football. What I *AM* saying is that I think it's conceivable that this offense plays at a pretty high level the rest of the way. Why?

(1) Shane Vereen is back. He's a dynamic playmaker. Having him healthy is huge. He's a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.

(2) The rookies are starting to get it. Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins have all shown tremendous improvement from the start of the year, just as many of us hoped they would. Still far from finished products, as a group they are much, much better than they were at the start. They do need Dobson and Thompkins back healthy though.

(3) The health of Amendola and Edelman. These two guys are really solid.

(4) The emergence of Blount. At the beginning of the year he looked slow and somewhat disinterested. He's an absolute jackhammer now. Very nice weapon.

Again, I don't think this is an elite offense without Gronk. I do think they can score in the upper 20's, though, consistently, without him. Then it becomes a matter of whether the defense can keep them in games.

Long story short, this team very much has a puncher's chance to do some serious damage in the playoffs still, even without Gronk. The Gronk injury is horrible, horrible news on many levels, but as a Patriots' fan, I still have some optimism that they can make a serious run here.

 

[resdubwhite]

One positive note.

this team has a few more tools than it did last year to help us through without Gronk.

don't get me wrong. Its a huge loss. but I am not throwing the towel in yet.

this team has an attitude. Nothing seems to upset them.

 

[Shed83]

Whilst I agree 100% with your theory the problem with conjecture like this is it assumes we go the next 3/4 games completely healthy.

This season has proven time and time again that we will get more kicks in the balls in terms of injuries to key players.

If we were to go healthy by some miracle then I agree we have a chance with the playmakers we've got.

Could do with the D stepping up a little too, although with the players that have went down thus far we can't be too critical of the performances!

 

[grux]

There is no question that Gronk changes our offense. However, I wouldn't underestimate the importance of Shane Vereen. The offense improved a ton when both players returned. I think our offense will be good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs.

 

[IllegalContact]

it is not as bad now....the WR's are much further along now than they were in september

besides........we have develin

 

[The_Riddler]

This simply turns into a WR-based offense which will now have the inclusion of a promising new comer in Josh Boyce and hopefully a healthy Thompkins and Dobson in the near future. It will be a screen-based offense now with a healthy Vereen. The Patriots will adapt to what they have like they always do. The defense now knows it has to step it up and I think they will. I'm not throwing in the towel. This team has shown to much fight and heart, they never quit and I won't quit on them.

 

[IllegalContact]

This simply turns into a WR-based offense which will now have the inclusion of a promising new comer in Josh Boyce and hopefully a healthy Thompkins and Dobson in the near future. It will be a screen-based offense now with a healthy Vereen. The Patriots will adapt to what they have like they always do. The defense now knows it has to step it up and I think they will. I'm not throwing in the towel. This team has shown to much fight and heart, they never quit and I won't quit on them.

the pats won an SB with Jermaine Wiggins and Rod Rutledge with their TE's....however, thompkins and dobson are now a must-have

 

[crew1954]

it is not as bad now....the WR's are much further along now than they were in september

besides........we have develin

and Mulligan

 

[RIpats88]

We need Dobson and thompkins healthy

 

[SacPete1]

Without Gronk, you don't have that seem or clear-out presence from the line of scrimmage which if I'm playing defense against the Pats, would now make me choose to bring a safety down (more in men in the box negate the run) and challenge the Patriots to beat 1:1 on the outside. Thompkins and Dobson are key and need to get healthy soon.

We do not have a healthy TE on the roster that can push the seam and force a safety back. I wonder if they'll bring back Williams.

 

[Rob0729]

The only positive is that the Pats have never been as deep with receivers when Thompkins and Dobson returns.

In the past, it was mostly Welker and Hernandez which was easy for opposing defenses to double both and shutdown the offense. At times, there might have been one to more receiving threats in Woodhead and Lloyd (and Vereen in the playoffs last year).

Now the Pats can have five or six legitimate threats. Brady has Edelman, Lloyd, Dobson, Thompkins, Vereen, and now maybe Boyce. The Pats may have to go to five wides a lot like in 2007 and spread out defenses.

No way around it. Gronk is a big loss, but the Pats might be equipped now to overcome the loss to be good enough to do damage in the playoffs.

 

[Triumph]

Ballard signed with AZ.

Kellen Winslow is with the Jets.

Pats need a TE. Mulligan is raw.

 

[olschool]

The biggest problem with the offense is that they only show up for the second half.

Brady's passes have been off target and dropped, much more in the first half.

They're playing like they all missed practice.

It's very weird, I don't get it, but with or without Gronk (which they should be used to by now), I hope they figure it out before the playoffs.

 

[mgteich]

Defenses will now key on Vereen, and take him out of the offense.

 

[RIpats88]

Defenses will now key on Vereen, and take him out of the offense.

Didn't seem to work yesterday..

We need Dobson back to be that deep/sideline threat

 

[Brady6]

Let's assume that he's done for the year. What does that mean for the 2013 offense?

Well, let's first break it down into two segments:

W/O Gronk: 6 g, 20.8 pts, 348.8 yds, 19.7 first downs
With Gronk: 6 g, 32.8 pts, 406.7 yds, 26.0 first downs

Ok, it's a CLEAR step up with Gronk vs. without. But notice I only included twelve games. I left off Cleveland. Why? Because it's a game technically with Gronk, but I want to point out something very interesting.

On the whole, the Patriots put up 27 points and 484 yards. Brady went 32-52, 418 yds, 2 td, 1 int. Pretty awesome day overall.

However, Gronk left the field in the third quarter. The next play Brady got strip-sacked. But after that, they had five possessions. Here's what they did on those next 5 possessions: FG, TD, FG, TD, TD.

Brady: 20-27 (one spike), 74.1%, 259 yes, 9.6 ypa, 2 td, 0 int

Now, I am NOT arguing that the offense will be better without one of the best players in football. What I *AM* saying is that I think it's conceivable that this offense plays at a pretty high level the rest of the way. Why?

(1) Shane Vereen is back. He's a dynamic playmaker. Having him healthy is huge. He's a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.

(2) The rookies are starting to get it. Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins have all shown tremendous improvement from the start of the year, just as many of us hoped they would. Still far from finished products, as a group they are much, much better than they were at the start. They do need Dobson and Thompkins back healthy though.

(3) The health of Amendola and Edelman. These two guys are really solid.

(4) The emergence of Blount. At the beginning of the year he looked slow and somewhat disinterested. He's an absolute jackhammer now. Very nice weapon.

Again, I don't think this is an elite offense without Gronk. I do think they can score in the upper 20's, though, consistently, without him. Then it becomes a matter of whether the defense can keep them in games.

Long story short, this team very much has a puncher's chance to do some serious damage in the playoffs still, even without Gronk. The Gronk injury is horrible, horrible news on many levels, but as a Patriots' fan, I still have some optimism that they can make a serious run here.

The loss of Gronkowski is big in the passing game and in the running game; Gronkowski is a top 3 offensive player (non-QB) in the NFL along with Johnson Jr. and Peterson in my opinion. He has a 1on1 matchup advantage no matter who defends him and he is capable of dominating all facets of a game offensively. His loss is going to hurt us especially in the red zone where we struggled severally in his absence earlier in the year.

Those realities aside we can find a way to be successful without him but it will rely heavily on our players stepping up:

1. Danny Amendola needs to play like he did in week 1 of the season; 3.85 receptions for 43 receiving yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game is not enough for the seventh highest paid player on the team and third highest paid on offense behind just Brady and Mankins.
2. Stevan Ridley needs to be involved in the running game and protect the football; he is a top runner when he is on the field whatever issues he is having confidence, technique or other need to be worked out.
3. The game plan needs to be better along with the execution; overall preparation needs to improve during the week, we have scored 10 points in the first half since coming out of the bye that is not going to get it done and if we did not have the GOAT at QB there is a real possibility that we could have lost 6 out of our last 7.
4. Connolly, Wendell and Mankins need to get their **** together we allow far too much pressure on the inside of the line, people may think Solder has regressed and maybe he might of but part of his problem is he is always dropping in to help Mankins or pick up Mankins man or at least that’s how I am seeing it play out.
5. We need to figure out way to keep Vereen on the field even when we have players like Ridley, Blount or Bolden on the field; he is so valuable and probably our most dynamic weapon without Gronkowski.
6. The turnovers need to stop, Brady is making horrible decisions over the past few weeks early in games forcing balls into places they have very little chance of getting through.
7. Aaron Dobson needs to get healthy, he was playing at very high level before the bye week and since he has been injured and a non-factor.
8. We need to continue to integrate Josh Boyce into the offense; I am not sure if anyone else has ever looked at the comparison but Boyce on paper is more physically talented than Bethel Johnson a player considered by many to be the fastest player we’ve ever had. Obviously the hope is that Boyce becomes a better NFL player but my point is only that he has great potential.
9. A healthy Hooman can give us something at the tight end position; he is very good after the catch and hard to take down. In his 2 seasons he has been targeted 21 times resulting in 15 receptions for 223 yards and 9 first downs that is actually very good production based on the opportunity.
10. If Thompkins and give us what he did in the second half of the Broncos game we would be golden.

At the end of the day we have the GOAT at QB and HC along with many other talented players and coaches, we can get through this but it will not be an easy next man up type of situation, Gronkowski is all world and unlike any other player not name Calvin Johnson Jr. or Adrian Peterson.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I hope we can all agree on this:

1. Vereen is way better than Hooman/Mulligan.
2. Vereen is way better than our WR4. (Boyce/Collie)

If we want to pound the rock with Blount/Ridley, keep Vereen on the field! His mere presence will help the offense out there.

As long as he's up to it, I can't see how Vereen won't be an every snap player from this point. He's replaced the Prisoner's role in my eyes.

 

[Brady6]

Defenses will now key on Vereen, and take him out of the offense.

I agree completely, even on the touchdown pass to Amendola they sent 3 defenders at Edelman and 2 at Vereen we need another weapon to at least pull attention off them two.

Didn't seem to work yesterday..

Unfortunately the difference between making an in game adjustment is a lot different than teams having an entire week to prepare with Vereen as their #1 player to stop.

 

[Brady6]

I hope we can all agree on this:

1. Vereen is way better than Hooman/Mulligan.
2. Vereen is way better than our WR4. (Boyce/Collie)

If we want to pound the rock with Blount/Ridley, keep Vereen on the field! His mere presence will help the offense out there.

As long as he's up to it, I can't see how Vereen won't be an every snap player from this point. He's replaced the Prisoner's role in my eyes.

Absolutely I just said the same thing in my post above yours, Vereen needs to be on the field 95% of the time.

 

[ivanvamp]

I hope we can all agree on this:

1. Vereen is way better than Hooman/Mulligan.
2. Vereen is way better than our WR4. (Boyce/Collie)

If we want to pound the rock with Blount/Ridley, keep Vereen on the field! His mere presence will help the offense out there.

As long as he's up to it, I can't see how Vereen won't be an every snap player from this point. He's replaced the Prisoner's role in my eyes.

I actually like the idea of a 3WR-2RB set with Amendola, Edelman, Thompkins/Boyce/Dobson, Ridley, and Vereen. It opens up all kinds of possibilities. Which RB is going to stay in the backfield? You can power run, you can run wide, you have 4 1/2 really good receiving threats (Ridley is the 1/2). You can run up-tempo with this as well.