The Next Group - Red Chip Players

[mgteich]

MY PERSONAL CONCLUSION (with the top 3 gone) is
that Vrabel may be willing to trade down, but not if he has one of the players considerably above the rest. If he has 4 about equal, then he can afford to trade down to as far as 7, especially if he thinks that one or two of his 4 aren't a top consideration for others. My SUSPICION is that Campbell is his man and will be drafted at 4. For me, I have Campbell and Banks at the top of my list.
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THOUGHTS
I tend to think of the first 40 as blue chip, red chip and the rest that aren't really all that far apart in value. Obviously, where the break is changes from year to year. I would think that we want to be sure that we get a red chip player that is near the top our board. And yes, QB's get moved up since there is tremendous value for just being a QB who can start.

BLUE CHIP (3)
Hunter, Carter, Ward

RED CHIP (8) (in no particular order) [teams and posters will have a slightly different list)
Campbell
Banks
Sanders
Membou
Tet
Jeanty
Warren
Graham

If a team wants to get one of these, they can't go lower than 11. If they have a couple much higher than the others, then they should be willing to trade up to get him. Also, if one is trading down, a team can't trade beyond where they are very likely to get one of the top players on their board.

 

[Username]

I think Mason Graham is a blue chip player.

 

[signbabybrady]

I'm still pissed that we are as high as 4 and don't automatically get a blue chip.

So I'm not giving up on Carter or Hunter.

And I'm hopeful that if we stay at 4 and select who we think is the best of the rest and get it right that the best of the rest will also wind up a blue chip. Even if it's hard for us to differentiate I'd like to think the professionals know and are convinced he's blue chip too.

 

[billdog3484]

cam ward a blue chipper? no way. just because hes supposedly going 1 doesnt make him a better player

 

[Headcase]

I'm still pissed that we are as high as 4 and don't automatically get a blue chip.

So I'm not giving up on Carter or Hunter.

And I'm hopeful that if we stay at 4 and select who we think is the best of the rest and get it right that the best of the rest will also wind up a blue chip. Even if it's hard for us to differentiate I'd like to think the professionals know and are convinced he's blue chip too.

You don't end up a blue chip, you either you are or you aren't....its a combination of elite traits, production, and room for additional growth. And on top of that you can add importance of position.

If Campbell's arms were an 1.5 inches longer, and his chest was 3 inches wider, he would likely be a true Blue Chip....but they aren't.

If Graham was 30 pounds heavier and still moved like he does, he would likely be a Blue Chip.

Hunter has enough size, has really good explosion, acceleration and ball skills; production on both sides of the ball; and room for growth with the assumption he will play less snaps and actually focus the majority of his energy on one position.

It doesn't mean Blue Chips can't bust or that other players can't make the HoF, it is just a way of codifying the potential of a prospect.

 

[stinkypete]

Jalon Walker probably can be added to the red chippers.

 

[Headcase]

cam ward a blue chipper? no way. just because hes supposedly going 1 doesnt make him a better player

I agree, Cam is getting a big boost because of the position, but he is far from a clean prospect.

 

[signbabybrady]

You don't end up a blue chip, you either you are or you aren't....its a combination of elite traits, production, and room for additional growth. And on top of that you can add importance of position.

If Campbell's arms were an 1.5 inches longer, and his chest was 3 inches wider, he would likely be a true Blue Chip....but they aren't.

If Graham was 30 pounds heavier and still moved like he does, he would likely be a Blue Chip.

Hunter has enough size, has really good explosion, acceleration and ball skills; production on both sides of the ball; and room for growth with the assumption he will play less snaps and actually focus the majority of his energy on one position.

It doesn't mean Blue Chips can't bust or that other players can't make the HoF, it is just a way of codifying the potential of a prospect.

I agree with what you're saying and I didn't mean it in a hindsight type way after a few years looking back.

I just meant that the guy who is the best of the rest is probably closer to that blue chip level than most of us think right now.

Example we are all getting caught up on Campbell's arms but what if most scouts think he's so good it doesn't matter and they have consensus he should be top 5. Wouldn't that kind of make him blue chip still?

 

[patfanken]

The only thing that keeps Graham off my must take list of BLUE chippers is the current glut of quality DTs on the roster. But should both Carter and Hunter are gone at #4, he'd be on my list. DT is just too important a position to pass up a blue chipper.

BTW- has Michigan had its pro day yet and we get a confirmation on his weight? Has there been any explanation by his camp as to why there was a 30lb discrepancy at the combine? Just asking.

I have to say that I WOULD be let down if Campbell was the pick at #4. Not unhappy necessarily just not excited. Membou, Connerly, Banks or or three others would leave me just as excited if we traded down or got with our 2nd pick.

I'm not usually one who cares about a 40 time or an arm span, but I'm having a problem with the fact NO one in the last 2 decades has been a great LT with an arm span that short and I don't want to draft even a sure fire all pro LG with the #4 pick plus spend 2 years getting to the point where you make the move to LG.

About the only combine drill that I had any interest in was the 3 cone drill and no one seems to run it anymore and they certainly don't mention it, and that drill used to give you a better correlation to success than the 40.

 

[DarrylS]

Big fan of Warren even though we have 2 TE's under contract. He is 6'5 and plays violently, saw him in a several games last year and he is would add another dimension to our O. Think about how many teams have a great QB/TE combo..

 

[mike_usagisan]

I don't think anyone is trading up with us for any of these players.

 

[jmt57]

The only thing that keeps Graham off my must take list of BLUE chippers is the current glut of quality DTs on the roster. But should both Carter and Hunter are gone at #4, he'd be on my list. DT is just too important a position to pass up a blue chipper.

BTW- has Michigan had its pro day yet and we get a confirmation on his weight? Has there been any explanation by his camp as to why there was a 30lb discrepancy at the combine? Just asking.

I have to say that I WOULD be let down if Campbell was the pick at #4. Not unhappy necessarily just not excited. Membou, Connerly, Banks or or three others would leave me just as excited if we traded down or got with our 2nd pick.

I'm not usually one who cares about a 40 time or an arm span, but I'm having a problem with the fact NO one in the last 2 decades has been a great LT with an arm span that short and I don't want to draft even a sure fire all pro LG with the #4 pick plus spend 2 years getting to the point where you make the move to LG.

About the only combine drill that I had any interest in was the 3 cone drill and no one seems to run it anymore and they certainly don't mention it, and that drill used to give you a better correlation to success than the 40.

Michigan had its pro day on March 21.

From everything I have found, all Graham did was step on the scales; no running, no bench press, nothing else.

He weighed in at 306 pounds, which is ten pounds more than he weighed at the combine.

 

[patfanken]

Michigan had its pro day on March 21.

From everything I have found, all Graham did was step on the scales; no running, no bench press, nothing else.

He weighed in at 306 pounds, which is ten pounds more than he weighed at the combine.

Thanks,

No comments about weight results at the combine? Why would they over report his weight when it is obvious it will all come out prior to the draft?

Does he have the frame to gain those 20lbs? Not surprised he didn't work out. That's an agent thing and these kids are pros in college now, with the stars probably making 6 figures PLUS their scholarships

Finally if Hunter and Carter are gone as they likely will be, would you pick him?

 

[signbabybrady]

The only thing that keeps Graham off my must take list of BLUE chippers is the current glut of quality DTs on the roster. But should both Carter and Hunter are gone at #4, he'd be on my list. DT is just too important a position to pass up a blue chipper.

BTW- has Michigan had its pro day yet and we get a confirmation on his weight? Has there been any explanation by his camp as to why there was a 30lb discrepancy at the combine? Just asking.

For me it's not just that we have several players already but that they are also pretty light themselves. Barmore, Milton, and White aren't Wilfork or even Ty Warren.

This is clearly intentional as we switch from a 3 man line to a 4 man line. But that that doesn't mean everyone should be 290 or less.

All that said I wouldn't hate a 4 man line with Milton, White, Barmore, and Graham. Could turn into a real wrecking crew. The question becomes who are the DTs and who are the ends? Also kind of limits Landry a little as I wouldn't really want to take any of them off the field other than for a quick breather.

 

[jmt57]

Thanks,

No comments about weight results at the combine? Why would they over report his weight when it is obvious it will all come out prior to the draft?

Does he have the frame to gain those 20lbs? Not surprised he didn't work out. That's an agent thing and these kids are pros in college now, with the stars probably making 6 figures PLUS their scholarships

Finally if Hunter and Carter are gone as they likely will be, would you pick him?

This article below suggest that Graham dropped weight for the combine, though that doesn't make sense, since he only participated in the bench press. Then he gained ten pounds for the pro day to allay concerns that he was too light?

Mason Graham Not Worried About His Weight After Michigan Pro Day

Mason Graham is a former wrestler so he’s used to losing and regaining weight. And on Friday at Michigan’s pro day, he weighed in at 306, 10 pounds heavier than

www.si.com

There are also some article that said that he was going to work out at the pro day rather than the combine, but that did not happen.

Mason Graham 2025 NFL combine performance: Ex-Michigan does bench press, but how many reps?

Mason Graham opted out of most of the on-field 2025 NFL combine events. Here’s how he did on the bench press.

sports.yahoo.com

Reports on his actual playing weight this season are all over the place too.
I don't know, all of that doesn't make sense to me.
Or maybe it's just the silly season for rumors/speculation/lies.


At this point I don't know who I would take at #4, presuming Hunter and Carter are both gone.

 

[Steve102]

This article below suggest that Graham dropped weight for the combine, though that doesn't make sense, since he only participated in the bench press. Then he gained ten pounds for the pro day to allay concerns that he was too light?

Mason Graham Not Worried About His Weight After Michigan Pro Day

Mason Graham is a former wrestler so he’s used to losing and regaining weight. And on Friday at Michigan’s pro day, he weighed in at 306, 10 pounds heavier than

www.si.com

There are also some article that said that he was going to work out at the pro day rather than the combine, but that did not happen.

Mason Graham 2025 NFL combine performance: Ex-Michigan does bench press, but how many reps?

Mason Graham opted out of most of the on-field 2025 NFL combine events. Here’s how he did on the bench press.

sports.yahoo.com

Reports on his actual playing weight this season are all over the place too.
I don't know, all of that doesn't make sense to me.
Or maybe it's just the silly season for rumors/speculation/lies.


At this point I don't know who I would take at #4, presuming Hunter and Carter are both gone.

I was all about him prior to the combine. The weird weight thing and the signing of Milton Williams have backed me off on him a bit. He seems like a culture fit but I am all in on a LT at this point. Like everyone else, I want to trade back, but no one else is going to want the pick, either, so they need to be ready to pick, which I am sure they are.

 

[PatsFan2]

The only thing that keeps Graham off my must take list of BLUE chippers is the current glut of quality DTs on the roster. But should both Carter and Hunter are gone at #4, he'd be on my list. DT is just too important a position to pass up a blue chipper.

BTW- has Michigan had its pro day yet and we get a confirmation on his weight? Has there been any explanation by his camp as to why there was a 30lb discrepancy at the combine? Just asking.

I have to say that I WOULD be let down if Campbell was the pick at #4. Not unhappy necessarily just not excited. Membou, Connerly, Banks or or three others would leave me just as excited if we traded down or got with our 2nd pick.

I'm not usually one who cares about a 40 time or an arm span, but I'm having a problem with the fact NO one in the last 2 decades has been a great LT with an arm span that short and I don't want to draft even a sure fire all pro LG with the #4 pick plus spend 2 years getting to the point where you make the move to LG.

About the only combine drill that I had any interest in was the 3 cone drill and no one seems to run it anymore and they certainly don't mention it, and that drill used to give you a better correlation to success than the 40.

Michigan have another solid DT Kenneth Grant.

 

[Lansdowne]

Between the guys in consideration at 4, here’s how I have them ranked in tiers not based on team needs but rather just their overall profile and likelihood of being a perennial star:

Tier 1
Travis Hunter
Abdul Carter

Tier 2
Ashton Jeanty
Tyler Warren
Mason Graham

Tier 3
Armand Membou
Will Campbell
Tetairoa McMillan

 

[VJCPatriot]

Between the guys in consideration at 4, here’s how I have them ranked in tiers not based on team needs but rather just their overall profile and likelihood of being a perennial star:

Tier 1
Travis Hunter
Abdul Carter

Tier 2
Ashton Jeanty
Tyler Warren
Mason Graham

Tier 3
Armand Membou
Will Campbell
Tetairoa McMillan

I agree with this tier list.

My thinking is that if a blue chipper makes it to #4 such as Hunter or Carter you run in your card without any hesitation. The top of this draft is just so light on genuine blue chip talent. If both Hunter and Carter are gone, you end up in no man's land and I hope they have held preliminary discussions for potential trade downs. I'm fine dropping to 7-10 range and picking up a red chip. with the extra ammo we can hopefully trade back into bottom of the 1st for a lower ranked red chipper who still has potential to become a league average starter.

 

[BobDigital]

Not to get TOO into it, but i see first round players in 3 tiers. The First being players with particularly impressive traits and film. Like having great film along with a crazy 40 speed or super elite quickness. Along with fitting the prototype for the role. The Second being players who perfectly fit the prototype and have the film. But not singular amazing traits which blow you out of the water. The last being players who have first round level film and ability... but some kind of prototype of minor film defect you hope won't matter or you can work around.

With that in mind here is how i see the players I've looked at.

First Tier

Hunter - WR
Carter - DE

Second Tier -

Warren - TE
McMillian - WR
Jeanty - RB
Johnson - CB
Booker - G
Grant - DT/NT
Mykel Williams - DE
Burden - WR
Tyliek Williams - DT


Third Tier

Campbell - OT (You keep hearing how he may fit better as a guard due to his body type. That to me is a big red flag for an OT peoeple see as a possible top 5 pick)
Banks - OT - (Another first round OT people think may be better as a guard)
Membou - OT (Yet another OT people think will fit better as a guard due to size and body type... Seems to be a theme this year and i don't like it).
Graham - DT (undersized and without the burst you want for a smaller DT)
Pearce - DE (but if he can transition to a 3-4 OLB I see him being a much better fit... however it what i watched he didn't play it much... but i think he maybe could. So could be tier 2?)

And just to be clear... I am not saying you can't take someone a tier down, particularly if they are at a more impactful position, but doing so should give you pause.

Personally I believe only 3 People are worthy of our 4th overall pick due to fit, need and ability. In order..

#1 Hunter
#2 Carter
#3 McMillian

There is no 4th option I'd considering taking at that spot. I don't believe any OT this draft is worth the 4th overall pick when it seems very possible they may end up being kicked insider to guard in the end. Nor do i believe any other player in tier 2 is valuable enough to be worth that pick for us. McMillian has pretty rare traits and checks off the boxes as well as filled a need. If somehow none are there a trade down should be easy. If McMillian is there we can weigh his value vs a trade down.

I don't think there is a huge difference between McMillian and Burden, but maybe enough to make a cheap trade down package not worth it. Unless a team offers something pretty good I'm fine taking McMiillan at 4. Though i do want to leave the first round with Burden at worst... I'm not sure how I'd feel about leaving with Golden or Egbuka or Bond when what we need is a true impact guy... they may well turn out to be that. But i think the above 2 are more likely.

My ideal options in order..

#1 - Get Hunter and be very very happy

#2 Trade down for a good package..... Get Burden at another high second round pick to help the OL... maybe even another WR or TE.

#3 Take McMillian. I would be okay with this and would not accept package with bad value to give him up.