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The Myth of the Easy AFC East: The Definitive Guide

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Wheelman, Jan 3, 2019.

  1. Wheelman

    Wheelman Pro Bowl Player

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  2. TennisBallHead

    TennisBallHead Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    None of the slappies in the AFC East have gone better than 11-5 (and that's only happened like three times total) during this entire 18 year run. I think almost all 28 other teams have at least one 12-4 season in that time span.

    Their division stinks, and it helps them get home playoff games and byes. It's okay.
     
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  3. TennisBallHead

    TennisBallHead Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    8-8 was good enough to win the division. Only the NFC South matches that.
     
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  4. Adam Seward

    Adam Seward Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Who ya got in the playoffs troll? Hope to curb stomp your team if they’re still playing.
     
  5. TruthSeeker

    TruthSeeker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Choosing one metric to classify how good a division is - particularly a metric that is impacted by having a dominant NFL team in the division, is poor analysis. How many divisions have two 12 win teams in them in any given year? It’s pretty rare (although it happened this year). The Patriots get 12 wins more often than not.

    Just admit the obvious; the rest of the AFC East looks bad only because the Patriots have been so good. They are actually a little better than average compared with the other divisions. It’s not surprising, actually. They have to try harder than teams in other divisions in order to win their division.
     
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  6. TennisBallHead

    TennisBallHead Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I'm pretty sure the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills would still suck if the Pats weren't there.

    It's an easy division, just deal with it.
     
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  7. robertweathers

    robertweathers PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We've been through this exercise before. Some years the afce has had winning records vs other divisions and some years not.

    If the Pats sucked they'd be knocked out of the playoffs every year (like 05-10 and 2012 -2013)
     
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  8. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Pro Bowl Player

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    They would but the only reason you trolls bring that up is to try and diminish the Pats success in the league. If you're right then once they played outside of the division you'd see a clear drop off...but you don't. Then especially in the playoffs you'd see an even bigger drop off. The Pat's are dominant. Just deal with it.
     
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  9. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Pro Bowl Player

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    Read the article and then try and make your case.
     
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  10. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Florida Man PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The division does suck hard lately, but if you look back (starting in 2001) and research the years where the AFCE has fielded two playoff teams for the AFC, you would actually be surprised.
     
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  11. italian pat patriot

    italian pat patriot Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I N C R E D I B L E
     
  12. Urgent

    Urgent In the Starting Line-Up

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    Interesting.
    The author sets a thesis and performs a lot of analysis to support his thesis. But little of the analysis is relevant.
    If you want to compare the Jets Bills and Dolphins to the rest of the league the simple comparison is to look at their record against teams outside their division. Is that group above or below .500 over the sample period?
     
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  13. tasmlab

    tasmlab Starting QB, won 20 SBs, number is retired PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Outside of maybe Pennington and Tannehill (both frequently injured), the other East teams really haven't found or had a long-term guy at QB for the past two decades. Am I forgetting someone? It seems like it would be hard to be good outside of some lucky seasons.
     
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  14. 40yrpatsfan

    40yrpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There hasn't been a real threat from any of them to win the division, except briefly when Rex took over the Jets. But there's been many decent 8-8 or 9-7 teams that manage to beat us once or twice per year out of 6 games.

    When we go 5-1 against the AFC East (.833), that's consistent with a 13-3 overall record, meaning we beat non-division opponents at the same rate. When we go 4-2 (.667), that's consistent with an 11-5 record. We almost always go either 5-1 or 4-2, so more or less at the same rate as we beat all other opponents. Overall we average a record of 12-4 (.750, the article says .740 to be exact), which is right in the middle of 5-1 and 4-2. So it's clear we beat non-division opponents at the same rate as everyone else.
     
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  15. 1960Pats

    1960Pats PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This type of discussion is a direct result of the idiotic 4 team division setup and the huge variation in schedules that each team plays. It's especially stupid when a team get's a playoff spot with a worse record simply because they finished better than three of the other 15 teams, thus becoming a division "champion."
     
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  16. TB_Helmet

    TB_Helmet In the Starting Line-Up Weekly NFL Picks Winner

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    The Jets and Dolphins are both right at .500 outside the division and the Bills are below. But if you rank the worst team in each division, the Bills have the best record outside of the division of those 8.
     
  17. maust1013

    maust1013 Just Another Guy PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly NFL Picks Winner

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    The author's numbers include the Bledsoe year of 2000, the Brady/Belichick win %'s by division:
    NFCE .813
    NFCN .850
    AFCN .806
    AFCE .794
    AFCS .788
    NFCS .750
    NFCW .667
    AFCW .647
    Considering where the franchise is located, what Northern or Eastern division do you think the "sh!tty division" whiners would rather see the Pats in? The correct answer, of course, is not whatever division their pathetic team plays in.

    The .806 vs the creampuff AFCN is even more impressive when you realize in 2 of every 3 years NE only plays the division winner of that craptastic collection.

    Teams are built first and foremost to win their divisions. The Pats are the reason the other teams in the division struggle achieving sustained success and why they hire/fire so many coaches & GM's. The Pats have swept the division twice in the Brady/Belichick era, in 2007 and 2012.

    The reality is the AFCE has more right to complain about the rest of the league not carrying their share of the load against the Pats than the league does.


    Numbers don't lie, trolls do.
     
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  18. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly NFL Picks Winner

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    The AFCE is crap hawt take is crap. Here's an analysis I did a year ago, so it doesn't reflect this year's stats:

    Division Comps since 2002 (division realignment)

    Winning percentages by division against teams outside the division:
    • AFC East: 0.545
    • NFC East: 0.523
    • NFC South: 0.519
    • AFC North: 0.505
    • AFC West: 0.498
    • NFC North: 0.488
    • AFC South: 0.480
    • NFC West: 0.447
    Team winning percentages against teams from outside the division:
    • New England: 0.769
    • Pittsburgh: 0.616 (not even close)
    • Indianapolis: 0.594
    • Denver: 0.581
    • Green Bay: 0.575 And so on...
    Further, the Patriots only have 33.6% of their wins coming from inside the division. Here's how that ranks against the top 5 teams since 2002:
    • Indianapolis: 40.6%
    • Green Bay: 38.7%
    • Pittsburgh: 35.9%
    • Denver: 35.9%
    • New England: 33.6%
     
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  19. TommyBrady12

    TommyBrady12 Pro Bowl Player

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  20. TB_Helmet

    TB_Helmet In the Starting Line-Up Weekly NFL Picks Winner

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    By the way the link in the OP is eerily similar to my post here:

    Tough division games

    Especially the whole “take the top team out to make it a fair comparison” point.
     
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