The McDaniels Effect... Passing Numbers up across the board

[Triumph]

Having an actual offensive line instead of the Walmart door greeters doesnt hurt either.

Campbell has been outstanding.

From the looks of things right now, the Pats have a franchise LT and QB.

 

[maust]

Stats for just Maye's 1st 4 starts in '24 vs '25. None of this is surprising but to Pape's core point, unquestionably improved. The 4 starts from 2024 were vs Texans, Jags, Jete and the Titans so not exactly a murderer's row of opponents either

 

[borg]

If Brisket is the measuring stick that sends tingles up the leg, why not seek a harder, more lasting wood.....

Let's compare this uplifting 2025 data to NFL shot-putter/Jackie O impersonator/QB sneak specialist Glam Newton's first 4 Patriots' games as well.

 

[Triumph]

We are seeing a NE passing offense that has been missing since 2019.

In the Redzone the Pats are more likely to score a TD than a FG too.

2025 Pats rank 8th @ 66.7% RZ success rate.
2024 Pats rank 30th @ 46.8% RZ success rate.

Mickey D has made a huge difference and Maye has responded like a Professional. Vs the Panthers, the one Maye roll out pass to the left to Henry was brilliant. The defense was left with a choice to go after Maye with the ball (They did) or cover Henry. Maye slipped the ball ( running left and Maye throws right) to Henry like a screen and the Panthers defense was to far behind to stop the play for a TD.

 

[Triumph]

If Brisket is the measuring stick that sends tingles up the leg, why not seek a harder, more lasting wood.....

Let's compare this uplifting 2025 data to NFL shot-putter/Jackie O impersonator/QB sneak specialist Glam Newton's first 4 Patriots' games as well.

lEavE CaM AloNe

He has covid.

 

[lancerman]

1. the numbers are the numbers... he was the guy we brought in the be "the guy" while Maye rode the bench... this speaks volumes about the quality of the staff on the team last year - they are the ones who thought he would be a good place holder...

2. the seahawks were the best team we faced last year in the first four games. the 49ers and jets started 2-2, and the bengals started 1-3... did we have to face the 9ers with CMC or Justin Hargrave? no we did not... they had already hit the slide in week 4... Hardly a murderers row to start the year... so lets not make it out to be so...

I am using the data that we have... nothing wrong with that... what the data tells us is that we are a better team this year than we were last year. Nothing more... nothing less... no grandiose claims are being made, no shouts of "PLAYOFFS" are rebounding off the sides of the echo chamber...

tldr:

Numbers without context are meaningless. The offenses numbers flatlined from 2019 to 2020. We know why that happened. With the same QB and same coordinator the numbers from 06 to 07 skyrocketed. You know what all 4 of those seasons have in common? Josh McDaniels was the OC. He didn't magically level up tenfold in 07 and he didn't just get worse in 2020

Sometimes when the response is "this is the only data we have" it's just an indication that we don't have enough data.

When you use data and isolate a variable, you need to control for everything else. Obviously here the assessment is making McDaniels the variable. The data isn't controlling for everything else yet. The QB and the opponents are different so far as is several pieces on offense (Campbell for instance is proving to be a big upgrade that the last OC didn't have), Henderson and Diggs in the mix are two extra threats the last OC didn't have the ability to utilize.

We soon will play teams that we played last year that are of similar quality to when we played them last year with Drake Maye and we can see if Josh is adding new dimensions to the game that are making a significant difference in outcome. And we can actually evaluate the play calling and the effectiveness of that.

 

[Pape]

Numbers without context are meaningless.

dude... come on... without context? WTF are you talking about?

Trying waaaayyyyy tooo hard to tear it up, to toss it aside.

You might feel more at home here --> TheGangGreen.com - New York Jets Message Board

 

[Hugepatsfan]

AVP just flat out wasn’t an NFL caliber offensive coordinator. And I don’t even mean any disrespect. For the situation they were in, he was fine. They had no league wide connections and no one wanted to come in blind to such a terrible situation. AVP is a fine Qb coach and did reasonably well Maye. All things considered, he was probably a home run hire for what it was last year. Fortunately, this year the situation was one where we could get a real coordinator. Whatever gripe or criticism people may have for McD, he’s clearly a viable coordinator and that alone is a huge improvements.

 

[lancerman]

dude... come on... without context? WTF are you talking about?

Trying waaaayyyyy tooo hard to tear it up, to toss it aside.

You might feel more at home here --> TheGangGreen.com - New York Jets Message Board

Do you think Josh's numbers with Jacoby last year would be as good or better than his numbers with Maye in the first 4 games this year?

I don't think a single person would buy that Josh's offense wouldn't be worse and have a decline in numbers compared to this year if he was put in the exact same spot as AVP last year and that 4 game to 4 game comparison is the one you are trying to make.

And no pointing the blindingly obvious doesn't make someone a Jets fan.

Josh SHOULD have better numbers in the 4 games this year. If he didn't we'd be in a nightmare scenario right now.

 

[Pape]

Do you think Josh's numbers with Jacoby last year would be as good or better than his numbers with Maye in the first 4 games this year?

I don't think a single person would buy that Josh's offense wouldn't be worse and have a decline in numbers compared to this year if he was put in the exact same spot as AVP last year and that 4 game to 4 game comparison is the one you are trying to make.

And no pointing the blindingly obvious doesn't make someone a Jets fan.

Josh SHOULD have better numbers in the 4 games this year. If he didn't we'd be in a nightmare scenario right now.

Josh wasn't here last year. He is this year.

I don't care what you think about what-ifs. We only have what is and what was. The whole context thing is a *****, isn't it?

as for he jets fan jab, if the shoe fits...

 

[Jim Beankie]

We are seeing a NE passing offense that has been missing since 2019.

In the Redzone the Pats are more likely to score a TD than a FG too.

2025 Pats rank 8th @ 66.7% RZ success rate.
2024 Pats rank 30th @ 46.8% RZ success rate.

Mickey D has made a huge difference and Maye has responded like a Professional. Vs the Panthers, the one Maye roll out pass to the left to Henry was brilliant. The defense was left with a choice to go after Maye with the ball (They did) or cover Henry. Maye slipped the ball ( running left and Maye throws right) to Henry like a screen and the Panthers defense was to far behind to stop the play for a TD.

Interestingly, Pats in 2021 were ranked 7th (dead last in 2022). Avg pts per drive was WAY higher in 2021 than 2019. Passing offense was about the same both years even though McD didn't let Mac burn himself too much on the stove (let him cook).

 

[VrabelJr]

We’re all looking for signs to know whether the ship is pointed in the right direction. I think it is. The ship just hasn’t gone that far yet. This forum is all high highs and low lows.

 

[Pape]

We’re all looking for signs to know whether the ship is pointed in the right direction. I think it is. The ship just hasn’t gone that far yet. This forum is all high highs and low lows.

Just trying to spread some sunshine with a positive post...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I looked this up earlier this week. . . .

Their conversion rate on third down for all of last season was 35%, or 29th league-wide (4.4/12.7 per game). This year they're up to 42%, which ranks 10th (5.0/12.0).

On fourth down, they were at 58%, which was 14th; right now, they're at 87.5%, which ranks 4th, just a hair behind KC and two teams that are 1/1 and 4/4.

 

[maust]

Just trying to spread some sunshine with a positive post...

I for one have always thought of you as Mr Sunshine & F'n Light

 

[lancerman]

Josh wasn't here last year. He is this year.

I don't care what you think about what-ifs. We only have what is and what was. The whole context thing is a *****, isn't it?

as for he jets fan jab, if the shoe fits...

Little kids in grade school learn that when you make an evaluation on a variable you have to have a defined control variable to make a meaningful evaluation of a hypothesis. Like 5th and 6th graders take tests on **** just like this and have to answer "the controlled variable is insufficient to draw a conclusion".

Very basic ****. When your data set is that flawed, the answer isn't to throw your hands up and say "well this is all we have" to make a flawed assessment. It's to acknowledge the reality that the data isn't valuable enough yet to create the circumstances for an evaluation.

Another tidbit, AVP's numbers last year WENT UP when they switched from Brissett to Maye.

I see a difference in talent. Maye is better than Brissett. He even took a step up from last year. The line is holding up a bit better and Maye has more time to work with. Henderson is more dynamic than are other RB's and adds more dimension there. Diggs is being accounted for more in the backfield. Those are things to be positive about.

But if you are comparing McDaniels? Not a whole lot to go by. They still have turn over issues, Henry running the same routes is still the bread and butter for the offense, they generally are still going with a similar RBBC by committee package. It's very difficult to look at McDaniels and say he's in any way the difference here. The players so far are better and that's adding more to the overall package. Also let's be real, we've seen McDaniels for 13 seasons of Josh running the offense, we know he's very talent dependent like most OC's. We've seen extreme highs and we've seen lows with him. Its pretty easy to assess who he is.

I appreciate what you are trying to do, but this isn't about Josh. It's about a second year QB, a better line, and some added pieces that are making us less of a one dimensional team that other DC's don't respect.

 

[Pape]

I for one have always thought of you as Mr Sunshine & F'n Light

 

[Pape]

but this isn't about Josh

you just don't get it do you? It is about Josh. Its about the improvements I see in the offense this year vs last year.

Its about the offense running familiar concepts (to us) and doing well after a four week stress test of what is described as a very complex offensive system to learn.

Doing all of that and succeeding. and based on the numbers we saw in the first four weeks of last year, doing really well.

Period. End of Story. Stop trying to make it out as something its not. Its not a huge epic break down of the offense, with all the differing variables from last year put into whatever god damn context that makes you feel smugly superior and this year parsed and diagnosed so we can have a Cold Hard Football Facts discussion of the X's and O's on a series by series breakdown of every drive while watching the All-22.

The analysis made in this thread can succinctly be summed up in one sentence =
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS THEY ARE BETTER!!!!!

 

[TheRainMaker]

Will Campbell, McDaniels, Diggs and a more experienced Boutte and Maye.

We'd be having a different conversation had the team picked Hunter or Carter.

 

[lancerman]

you just don't get it do you? It is about Josh. Its about the improvements I see in the offense this year vs last year.

Its about the offense running familiar concepts (to us) and doing well after a four week stress test of what is described as a very complex offensive system to learn.

Doing all of that and succeeding. and based on the numbers we saw in the first four weeks of last year, doing really well.

Period. End of Story. Stop trying to make it out as something its not. Its not a huge epic break down of the offense, with all the differing variables from last year put into whatever god damn context that makes you feel smugly superior and this year parsed and diagnosed so we can have a Cold Hard Football Facts discussion of the X's and O's on a series by series breakdown of every drive while watching the All-22.

The analysis made in this thread can succinctly be summed up in one sentence =
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS THEY ARE BETTER!!!!!

I can't do this anymore. If that's the analysis you want to go with, it's a bad one that means next to nothing and is heavily flawed by almost every metric. The end. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.

We don't need to make extreme reaches to talk up an OC. It's not worth fighting over, think whatever you want.