The Lockout might help us in the draft

[patsfanboy]

Since no player can be signed or traded before a new CBA is in place and god knows how long it will take. Now there are lots of teams that needs QBs, since they cannot acquire them by trade or by signing them, they will need to address the issue in the draft. This might mean that we can trade our 28 or any other pick to get some high second round pick with a great return value, and also hopefully some great DE might slip out, well that is just me being hopeful.

 

[mgteich]

I see 5 quarterbacks gone in the first 39 picks. The open question is when teams will panic. I expect Gabbert and Newton to be in the top 4, certainly in the top 12. Ponder, Lockett and Mallett all have their supporters.

 

[stinkypete]

I see 5 quarterbacks gone in the first 39 picks. The open question is when teams will panic. I expect Gabbert and Newton to be in the top 4, certainly in the top 12. Ponder, Lockett and Mallett all have their supporters.

Agreed. 28 and 33 would both be great picks to trade for a QB desperate team, and there will still be 5-6 of them by the end of round 1. I expect some team will overvalue one of those picks in a trade.

 

[patchick]

Since no player can be signed or traded before a new CBA is in place and god knows how long it will take. Now there are lots of teams that needs QBs, since they cannot acquire them by trade or by signing them, they will need to address the issue in the draft. This might mean that we can trade our 28 or any other pick to get some high second round pick with a great return value, and also hopefully some great DE might slip out, well that is just me being hopeful.

I think it's a good point. A team like Minnesota that feels like all the other pieces are in place would likely look for a vet QB (again). But who can risk waiting to see if you can land a Kolb or McNabb? At the very least you have to make sure you have somebody like Ponder or Dalton in hand to avoid a desperation situation. And if you HAVE to be sure of that, you have to move up.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Unfortunately some of our best drafts have involved trading draft picks for players like Moss and Welker.

That doesn't help us in the draft as far as I'm concerned - I'd rather have the ability to trade unproven draft picks for proven players.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Unfortunately some of our best drafts have involved trading draft picks for players like Moss and Welker.

That doesn't help us in the draft as far as I'm concerned - I'd rather have the ability to trade unproven draft picks for proven players.

Since that 2007 draft, from which the Patriots basically ran screaming (the only reason they took all those 5s, 6s, and 7s was b/c they couldn't get rid of them), the Pats haven't traded a single high draft pick for a player.

 

[MaineMan]

Also a chance that a team like BUF takes defense with their early first rounder and then trades back in to the first to snag an OT before the Bears pick.

 

[TealSox]

Teams with a need at the QB position:

1. Carolina Panthers: 2011 is already a nightmare and it hasn't began for the Panthers. What to do with Clausen?

2. Buffalo Bills: Cam Newton? Really?!?!? If the Raiders were picking third overall and they took Newton, every media member would shake there head. But the Bills can do it and its okay?

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Garrard is "okay", but how much longer can the Jags accept "okay" from the quarterback position? As if there is a single QB in the draft that could do better.... time to ring Denver and see if they want to unload Tebow, right?

4. San Francisco 49ers: New HC, same mistake by sticking with Alex Smith?

5. Tennessee Titans: Bye, bye Vince Young... right?

6. Cincinnati Bengals: My money is on Palmer playing football in 2011, rather than retire. Where, though? Can Christian Ponder step in and get the job done early? Maybe Alex Smith or Trent Edwards?

7. Minnesota Vikings: Is it safe to say that Brett has retired for good? Does this mean we'll have a screening of "Meet Joe Webb" in 2011?

8. Seattle Seahawks: If Hasselbeck isn't the answer in the Pacific Northwest, he'll solve another teams immediate needs at the QB position.

9. Washington Redskins: McNabb is as good as gone, the question is "when" and not "if".

10. Miami Dolphins: How much longer will the Dolphins give before they pull the plug on the Henne project?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Also a chance that a team like BUF takes defense with their early first rounder and then trades back in to the first to snag an OT before the Bears pick.

With a slight reshuffling at the top as trades move things around, I runs developing in two areas:
-- Once the first of Watt or Jordan come off the board a run on defensive ends carrying 3-4 tags is likely to develop.
-- Once the first OT comes off the board I expect a run to develop.

Both should see some interesting trade scenarios, with NE sitting pretty at #17 to exploit the market or make a minor move up or down for their guy.

 

[MaineMan]

With a slight reshuffling at the top as trades move things around, I runs developing in two areas:
-- Once the first of Watt or Jordan come off the board a run on defensive ends carrying 3-4 tags is likely to develop.
-- Once the first OT comes off the board I expect a run to develop.

Both should see some interesting trade scenarios, with NE sitting pretty at #17 to exploit the market or make a minor move up or down for their guy.

Looking over team needs (in MY exclusive twisted perception):

I only see three teams in the top 15 with OT as a major need: BUF (though I think they go OLB), DAL at #9 (though I think they go for Watt) and DET (though there's still a chance they're stupid enough to go a different direction). However, starting with IND at #22, I see about SEVEN teams (actually, including OAK) who might have OT as a major need, though five of them would pick after #28. If things work out as I think they might, there could be 2-3 of the top five OT's available at #28 with a "run" about to start. If the Pats have no particular desire for one of these guys, the #28 might be the subject of a bidding war.

WRT QB, I see EIGHT "possibiles" through #16 - CAR, CIN, ARZ, WAS (though I think they go defense), TEN, MIN, MIA and JAX - but none of them as absolutely, positively certain. Among those, only CAR has no 2nd rounder to fall back on and all appear to have other needs that may trump QB (at least the ones in THIS class). But there's definitely the potential for a "run" here, at #28 or #33 for teams that skipped QB early.

For DT, I could see (possibly):
CAR, ARZ, WAS (NT), HOU (NT), MIN (possibly Wilkerson, who seems like a Williams replacement more than most), or STL (though WR seems more likely), with KC (NT), SEA, the JETS (NT) and PIT (NT) all looking in the second half of the first round. However, I don't necessarily see a "panic run" for this position, at least among 4-3 teams. OTOH, if Kenrick Ellis grades out well enough, I could see one of the later 1st round teams reaching for him (and, yes, it would be REALLY reaching).

For 3-4 DE: possibly BUF, likely (IMO) DAL, possibly WAS and (as I noted) Wilkerson could go as a DT to MIN. After the Pats at #17, though: SD, KC, the JETS, PIT and GB might all be looking for 34DE if their first priorities can't be better satisfied with who's left on the board.

For 4-3 DE: possibly DEN, ARZ, MIN and (likely) CLE in the first half with TB, NO and SEA in the second half.

For OLB: DEN (Miller), BUF (Kerrigan), very possibly ARZ (with TEN and STL possibly looking for 4-3 types) in the first half, and KC (Houston or Smith) and (possibly) the JETS looking in the second half. Between the demand for 4-3DE and 34 OLB, if we don't take an OLB at #28, we may be looking at the likes of Sheard and Acho as the best 34OLB prospects left on the board by #33. And I suspect that we'll see some reaching for 4-3 OLB prospects transpiring in round two.

 

[supafly]

Good topic and point, OP.

I'm predicting 4 QB's in round one. The 2 that we all agree in the first 8 or so picks, Gabbart and Newton.

1 in the mid-level picks, I'm guessing Minnesota at #12, and I'm actually going out on a limb and predicting Ponder. Surely one of MIN, JAX, MIA will pick a QB, with the probability of it being MIN.

And 1 in the late first round, with someone taking either Locker, Mallett, or even Caepernick.

No doubt the lack of player movement, especially at QB, should help us out. I think that Kolb, Mcnabb, even Bulger would have likely found new homes by the draft in any other yr. And that's not even bringing up some of the 'other' teams such as CIN with Palmer, or SEA with Hasselbeck, and their situations.

At the end of the day, I just cannot see how 4 QB's aren't taken in round 1.

 

[mgteich]

If Minny wants their man at QB, they may need to draft him at 12 or at 17.

I think it's a good point. A team like Minnesota that feels like all the other pieces are in place would likely look for a vet QB (again). But who can risk waiting to see if you can land a Kolb or McNabb? At the very least you have to make sure you have somebody like Ponder or Dalton in hand to avoid a desperation situation. And if you HAVE to be sure of that, you have to move up.