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Content Post The Joe Milton Experience All-22

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Let's take a look from the other direction: you're a QB-desperate team and looking at Ward and Sanders...or maybe both are gone before you pick.

What do you offer for Milton? (I like him better than anyone coming out this year.)

I wouldn't trade him away for a 3rd, probably not even a second. A back-up QB is worth about 8 million in payroll.
4th round and later picks are historically very low chance of success, so I'd throw a 4th or later flyer at a QB every year so would trade a 4th or higher knowing the odds are Milton is a career backup.

I can't imagine anyone offering more than a 4th for him. He hasn't shown he has the ability to be a starting NFL QB and he'll be 25 before next season.

I would let him play next pre-season and look to the 2026 draft to trade him as that draft will be deep and maybe with a good pre-season you can steal a 3rd.
He's the perfect backup here because his style and size is similar to Maye and you don't need to change the offense if he has to play.
There is no way he ever signs an extension, he'll want a shot to play, so 2026 draft is probably maximum value time frame.

Everyone does realize he played against guys for Buffalo that played very little snaps all year.
 
If a team dangles a third rounder for Milton... seeya.
If you honestly believe that (developing him for one year made him a 3-round upgrade); then waiting one more year of development will get you a first round pick.

HARD PASS on a trade for picks.
 
Everyone does realize he played against guys for Buffalo that played very little snaps all year.
Had to come back for this. Absolutely needs to be taken with a grain of salt given personnel and schemes, however...

Milton also played against guys for Buffalo who played a lot of snaps this year, like Hamlin (100% game, 79.2% year 2nd highest on Bills), Rapp (the one who was beaten on the Boutte TD who was a starter on the Rams during their SB winning season, 42% game, 70.5% year 4th highest on BIlls), starting CB Douglas (25% game for at least 1 TD, 75.2% year 3rd highest on Bills). There were also other starters who made more than a token appearance which would've coincided with Milton's 11 consecutive completions to start his career.

For his TD to Boutte, there were FIVE 3rd stringers on the Pats offense and arguably the worst OL and WR corps in the league. Imho, Maye, while strong, can't make that (ill advised and bad QB play per Milton himself) throw. Milton is on an historic level arm strength wise. For the 2 TDs, there were only 2-3 third stringers on the Bills' D and 4 starters (at least for 1 TD... at least 3 starters for the other - can't tell).

Please note that the vast majority of the Chargers' starters on D only played a little over half of the game (with a couple in the ~70% range), and their secondary is so beat up that a lot of 3rd stringers were playing. Maye should've done significantly better than a goose egg in the 2nd half. There is no QB controversy, as Maye is the guy, but I couldn't be happier to have Milton as the backup (which was my dream really coming into the draft). Milton is extremely run averse contrary to his label, and Maye has been reckless with his body, so unless someone gives up a 1st or very very high 2nd, keeping him is a no brainer, as we may need to have the backup step in very early like for 2 of Maye's 3 official wins.
 
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I don't get it.

The draft after the top 15 is at best a 50-50 shot to get a contributor.

So, half the time we should be getting someone who isn't worth much.

And half the time we should be getting someone of value.
====
AND THEN
When we get someone of value, posters want to trade him so that we can get another 50-50 player. That make no sense to me.
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1) The team drafted the very, very raw Milton to be the emergency QB in 2024 and to try to train up to be our #2 in 2025-2027.
2) The very good coaching of QB's succeeded. At very least, we have a QB who should be a backup for the next three years, even if some think he isn't quite ready now.
3) We should be congratulating those who drafted Milton and who filled a key roster position for a 4 year stay. I didn't want him; I was wrong. Having 3 coaches whose #1 priority was the development of QB's really helped.
4) If Milton get ZERO reps, I will celebrate. That would mean that Maye has been healthy.
5) As an aside, Milton will be active in 2025 and therefore available for a few plays if the OC wants to use that option.
Your comment makes me want to know this about the health of QB's in the NFL in an era where defenses almost have to ask for permission to touch the QB. It is odd because it seems on most teams having a QB available for all 17 games is becoming rarer and rarer. Which brings me to my question. Does anyone know just how many QB's played in all 17 games this season.

Because if that # is low, it only points out just how important a #2 QB is these days, because you have to plan on knowing that it is very likely this guy will have to start multiple games. So, Milton's seeming development IS almost as important to the team as Mayes'. So if you didn't like AVP's work as OC, you HAVE to give his flowers for the job he did as QB coach. In fact I wouldn't hate it if he comes back next year as the QB's coach, if only for the sake of continuity, which is a very underrated asset to a developing QB
 
Had to come back for this. Absolutely needs to be taken with a grain of salt given personnel and schemes, however...

Milton also played against guys for Buffalo who played a lot of snaps this year, like Hamlin (100% game, 79.2% year 2nd highest on Bills), Rapp (the one who was beaten on the Boutte TD who was a starter on the Rams during their SB winning season, 42% game, 70.5% year 4th highest on BIlls), starting CB Douglas (25% game for at least 1 TD, 75.2% year 3rd highest on Bills). There were also other starters who made more than a token appearance which would've coincided with Milton's 11 consecutive completions to start his career.

For his TD to Boutte, there were FIVE 3rd stringers on the Pats offense and arguably the worst OL and WR corps in the league. Imho, Maye, while strong, can't make that (ill advised and bad QB play per Milton himself) throw. Milton is on an historic level arm strength wise. For the 2 TDs, there were only 2-3 third stringers on the Bills' D and 4 starters (at least for 1 TD... at least 3 starters for the other - can't tell).

Please note that the vast majority of the Chargers' starters on D only played a little over half of the game (with a couple in the ~70% range), and their secondary is so beat up that a lot of 3rd stringers were playing. Maye should've done significantly better than a goose egg in the 2nd half. There is no QB controversy, as Maye is the guy, but I couldn't be happier to have Milton as the backup (which was my dream really coming into the draft). Milton is extremely run averse contrary to his label, and Maye has been reckless with his body, so unless someone gives up a 1st or very very high 2nd, keeping him is a no brainer, as we may need to have the backup step in very early like for 2 of Maye's 3 official wins.
The guys on the field for the first TD and snaps played vs Pats in the previous game when starters played

Carter-0
Solomon-2
Jeferson-14
Toohill-0
Williams-49 (Plyed 14 snaps week 18)
Andreesen-2
Ulofoshio-1
Ingram-15
Elam-73
Hamlin and Rapp-0 but likely injury related

7 scrubs and 4 guys that get real playing time.

Second TD that was wiped out, same people, No Williams and Rapp but Lewis and Bishop were in who started due to injury but are normally second string, So second TD really on 2 guys that were starters and 2 other guys that have played as starters filling in a few games.

Each play was 7 complete scrubs and 4 guys with meaningful minutes.

In early 4th quarter Chargers: Tony Jefferson for the Chargers was the only equivalent Scrub on the field for the Chargers, the rest were regular contributors every week, playing 20-50 snaps every week. So 10 guys with meaningful minutes and 1 scrub.

You judge QB's by film. Yes, The Boutte TD was a bad QB play. Against starters he's sacked or picked or runs out for minimal gain. He should have thrown to the open reads. College and against scrubs that worked. Not a recipe for success in the NFL.

Even the scramble and almost TD play, I have less issue with this but still not smart QB play. It's 3rd and goal from the 24. The play call would be to take a quick shot to EZ or drop to the underneath to make field goal easier.

He has DD open top left, Safety to right is moving in, Milton's not (I don't think) actually looking there even though he looks there first, my guess is play was to the right and looked left to move safety? He had DD in the window but did not throw it so either came off read too fast or was not the actual first read. He was slow to come off right side read so now pressure is there but all he had to do was step up and Gibson as the dump off is wide open, should have thrown it there. He scrambles and makes the throw which was actually caught out of bounds.
So how would a coach judge this play? Great scramble and rifle throw but window so small he catches it out of bounds. The proper play was DD or the dump off. Against starters might have been sacked or picked.
Solomon and Jefferson are the 2 guys he escapes from. Solomon averaged 3 snaps a game. Jefferson 9.

 
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Not that it has anything to do with qb talent but one thing JM3 is way better at then Maye is in front of the media. Drake seems uncomfortable. As he progresses that will change but for now JM3 is better.
 
Your comment makes me want to know this about the health of QB's in the NFL in an era where defenses almost have to ask for permission to touch the QB. It is odd because it seems on most teams having a QB available for all 17 games is becoming rarer and rarer. Which brings me to my question. Does anyone know just how many QB's played in all 17 games this season.

Because if that # is low, it only points out just how important a #2 QB is these days, because you have to plan on knowing that it is very likely this guy will have to start multiple games. So, Milton's seeming development IS almost as important to the team as Mayes'. So if you didn't like AVP's work as OC, you HAVE to give his flowers for the job he did as QB coach. In fact I wouldn't hate it if he comes back next year as the QB's coach, if only for the sake of continuity, which is a very underrated asset to a developing QB
I tend to think that more QBs are playing outside the pocket and making runs which increase the amount of big hits.

Maye is making such runs and taking those hits where both players are running full speed.
 
If you honestly believe that (developing him for one year made him a 3-round upgrade); then waiting one more year of development will get you a first round pick.

HARD PASS on a trade for picks.
About a dozen years ago many posters on here even the more stable ones signed on to a thread about getting the 6th overall pick for Ryan Mallet. Mallet had hardly appeared in pre season games. The idea that the pats would get the 6th pick in the draft eventually dropped to a mid first rnder. So never underestimate what posters on here are willing to believe.
 
The cap for 2025 is 275 million. For a 53 man roster that is an average of just under 5.2 mil per player. Jacoby as a veteran backup cost 7.8 mil.

Milton next year will cost 1 mil. That compared to a vet backup like Jacoby saves 6.8 mil that can be used towards another position.

Having Joe Milton as a backup is valuable. If he was terrible they would need to either resign Jacoby next year or sign another equally expensive vet.

Hooper and Gibson combined made less than Jacoby as valuable veteran backups, about 6.3 mil. At their respective positions they are better than Brissett but made much less due to the value of the QB position. If you don't have a competent QB you aren't winning games.
 
Milton didn't beat backups. The Bills are arguably the second best team in the AFC and we're one of the very worst. Their backups are better on paper than our first stringers

That means, if you follow the logic all the way to its conclusion, that Milton carried our team to a win against a superior opponent.
Let's not get carried away. The Bills weren't playing to win. They had nothing at stake with the #2 seed locked up. They played as vanilla as possible so not to give away any wrinkles for the playoffs. Milton was set up to win that game against a disinterested Bills team who mostly played second stringers to prevent injuries to starters.

Everybody who followed the draft knows Milton has an exceptional arm. We were thrilled to get him with a 6th round pick. But he's one of those minerals that isn't fully shaped yet. We don't know if he's going to be great eventually or if he will flop. 1 meaningless game doesn't change that.

He will definitely be on the roster next season and compete in camp again. But chances are very high that he only remains our backup unless something disastrous *knock on wood* happens to Drake Maye. I don't buy his chances of beating out Maye in a direct head to head competition. But if he looks good in camp again that will build up his value for us so I'm hoping he continues to improve.
 
Let's not get carried away. The Bills weren't playing to win. They had nothing at stake with the #2 seed locked up. They played as vanilla as possible so not to give away any wrinkles for the playoffs. Milton was set up to win that game against a disinterested Bills team who mostly played second stringers to prevent injuries to starters.

Everybody who followed the draft knows Milton has an exceptional arm. We were thrilled to get him with a 6th round pick. But he's one of those minerals that isn't fully shaped yet. We don't know if he's going to be great eventually or if he will flop. 1 meaningless game doesn't change that.

He will definitely be on the roster next season and compete in camp again. But chances are very high that he only remains our backup unless something disastrous *knock on wood* happens to Drake Maye. I don't buy his chances of beating out Maye in a direct head to head competition. But if he looks good in camp again that will build up his value for us so I'm hoping he continues to improve.
I'll take functional.
 
If a team dangles a third rounder for Milton... seeya.
Third rounder is too low to consider getting rid of him as a backup with true starter upside. A few good games amidst a Drake Maye injury would be enough to make him a hot commodity.
 
Poppycock. No team goes out there trying to lose.
Players on the field may play to win, coaches decide who plays and make in game decisions that influence the outcome. The Bills went out of their way to block a division rival from getting the #1 pick in a game that had no bearing on their season.
 
Players on the field may play to win, coaches decide who plays and make in game decisions that influence the outcome. The Bills went out of their way to block a division rival from getting the #1 pick in a game that had no bearing on their season.
BUF could have been more direct as KC was, just sit almost all their starters. Did Andy even have his headset on? tuned in to what?

Who is criticizing KC?
 
BUF could have been more direct as KC was, just sit almost all their starters. Did Andy even have his headset on? tuned in to what?

Who is criticizing KC?
No one was criticizing KC. Sorry if it wasn't clear, I was trying to point out that WC teams that won the super bowl also had HOF QBs. Schemes don't win championships by themselves, it always comes down to players executing on the field.
 
No one was criticizing KC. Sorry if it wasn't clear, I was trying to point out that WC teams that won the super bowl also had HOF QBs. Schemes don't win championships by themselves, it always comes down to players executing on the field.
Belichick ALWAYS said it was the players. He may have been the architect of the blueprint but the players had to make the plans work.
 
I'm telling you guys as a volunteer fan... if Milton could develop... he will be better than Maye...

He had an injury... lost his job... then played as a senior...in college...

The vols were good because of him on offense in 23... that team was mediocre.

He never had time to develop.


Id like to see if Milton could beat maye for the starting job...

Vrabel will test this theory... qbs held him back in TN big time
 
I’d like to add a 3rd qb. One of those squat option college qb’s to do that Tush Push.
 
I'm telling you guys as a volunteer fan... if Milton could develop... he will be better than Maye...
I've never seen a QB improve processing ability more than a little bit. Milton is slow to process, below average for an NFL QB. Maye is really good and probably elite at it.

It's impossible for Milton to ever be a better processor than Maye. Granted Josh Allen is not a great processor but he's not below average either. If you went through all the qualities of a QB, Milton has a stronger arm and is bigger. Every other quality Maye has over Milton.

If Milton could be a 1% outlier of all historical QB's he can develop and be better than Maye. A 1% shot is a shot but considering he'll not play if Maye is playing, he won't be doing that development here.

There is less than ZERO chance Milton beats Maye out for the job.
 
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