The case for Jeanty at 4, Go for the homerun!! LFG

[sportnik]

Even Chat GBT knows better than to take Campbell at 4. And I quote. “Identifying successful NFL offensive tackles with a wingspan of 77 inches or less is challenging”

I’d have more confidence in Chat GBT running the board than Wolf/Vrabel!

 

[Huckleberry1]

Teams destined to win Championships don’t settle for average players in the Top 5. The Pats need to find a stud, a game changer, if they are forced to pick at 4. To my thinking, there would only be three options: Walker, Warren or Jeanty. All three are impact players the other team will need to to gameplan around. If they draft Campbell and play him at OT, other teams will thrilled and gameplan to exploit his weaknesses.

Campbell at 4 overall would be a complete disaster. Better OT’s will be taken between 20 & 30.

Walker would be a horrible pick. Campbell is going to be a very good NFL tackle.

 

[sportnik]

If you told me that Will Campbell would be as good at LT as Nate Solder was with the Patriots, I'd draft him at #4 and be very comfortable with it.

LOL! Campbell is no Nate Soldier!

Campbell is 6’5 with 32.5 inch arms & a 77 inch wingspan

Soldier was 6’8 with 35 inch arms & a 89 inch wingspan!

Campbell is a Lilliputian compared to Soldier!

 

[Gator Mike]

LOL! Campbell is no Nate Soldier!

Campbell is 6’5 with 32.5 inch arms & a 77 inch wingspan

Soldier was 6’8 with 35 inch arms & a 89 inch wingspan!

Campbell is a Lilliputian compared to Soldier!

Rashawn Slater is 6'4 with 33" arms and an 80" wingspan, and he might be the best LT in all of football.

My point is if they draft Will Campbell, and he's good enough where they can stop worrying about a gaping hole LT for the next decade, then that's worth the #4 pick in the draft.

 

[dliverey44]

No, what I'm saying is that you can't afford to take a player that is meh. None of the tackles have been mentioned as can't miss and aren't going to be mixed up with Tony Boselli, Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas, Trent Williams, etc.

This team can't draft a Nate Solder type player at #4.

I get the Solder is not a HOFer but dude played 10 years in the league at a pretty high level, almost 9000 snaps and was only called for 24 holding penalties (Nate Solder Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com).

We could do worse than Solder

 

[Wozzy]

Thats a lot of faith, I am not sure I believe in anything as much as you do out LG situation.

When healthy both players have shown the ability.

Many fans look at 8 or 4 wins and assume it’s a byproduct of “talent” across the board. Even bad teams have some talented players on them.

A year before posting the single greatest receiving season in history on an undefeated team Randy Moss was on a two win team. Jamie Collins came from a tiny college and had no wins his final season.

 

[Grogan14]

It is far from a Sure thing that Will Campbell will be a plug and play LT or G for 10 years. If you want to see what can go wrong, have a look at the case of the Giants Evan Neal.
I like Jeanty’s chances for sustained success better than Campbell’s.

 

[Gator Mike]

Given their options, I think Will Campbell is a reasonable pick at #4. No, he doesn't check as many boxes as your typical 4th overall selection, but the players that do check all the boxes are in incredibly short supply in this class.

If the Patriots take Campbell, and he can play LT at a fairly high level, then it's a home run pick.

If he's closer to a league average LT, then it's more like a double.

If he's a really good LG, then it's a single.

Anything less than that, and they whiffed.

 

[KCSVEN]

It is far from a Sure thing that Will Campbell will be a plug and play LT or G for 10 years. If you want to see what can go wrong, have a look at the case of the Giants Evan Neal.
I like Jeanty’s chances for sustained success better than Campbell’s.

You are completely ignoring positional value.
There is a shortage and lack of LT's in the NFL, while RB's are regularly starting that were drafted 4th round on.

The cap hit on a RB at 4 is way above rb value, and then you look at the 5th year option and a second contract for a rb the value is bad unless they are elite of elite. A legitimate starting LT is better value by quite a bit.

Will Campbell needs to be the 15th best tackle in the league and he's a better pick than Jeanty unless Jeanty becomes Saquon Barkley. Which is more likely?

I recently watched a ton of tape on Campbell. You can easily see why everyone thinks he's an all pro if he moves to guard. I'd say he's equally as likely to be an all pro guard as Jeanty is an all pro RB.

Campbell is likely a solid LT or an all pro guard but with room to improve he's possibly better Than that.

Not sure why you bring up Evan Neal when historically running backs in the first round succeed at a lower rate than tackles. If you want to go by draft history the hit rate on Tackles in round 1 is 21% higher than rb.

Do you want Joe Thuney or Leonard Fournette? That's a better comparison then Neal.

If Campbell moves to guard the odds are even higher of success:

• Interior offensive linemen are draft-day gold: No position more consistently outperforms expectations in both Rounds 1 and 2.

2025 NFL Draft: What historical hit rates reveal about positional success

www.pff.com

 

[Huckleberry1]

LOL! Campbell is no Nate Soldier!

Campbell is 6’5 with 32.5 inch arms & a 77 inch wingspan

Soldier was 6’8 with 35 inch arms & a 89 inch wingspan!

Campbell is a Lilliputian compared to Soldier!

Campbell was a much better player at a much higher level of collegiate play. He’s also one of the best athletes to ever come out of college at left tackle. If the depth of your knowledge is limited to how big a player is then it really isn’t worth much.

 

[TommyD4207]

Campbell was a much better player at a much higher level of collegiate play. He’s also one of the best athletes to ever come out of college at left tackle. If the depth of your knowledge is limited to how big a player is then it really isn’t worth much.

Solder played in the Big 12, when the Big 12 was still a real conference.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Solder played in the Big 12, when the Big 12 was still a real conference.

But he never played at the level Campbell did, or as well. Solder was a decent tackle, but imo comparing Campbell to him is a deliberate diss.

 

[Grogan14]

You are completely ignoring positional value.
There is a shortage and lack of LT's in the NFL, while RB's are regularly starting that were drafted 4th round on.

The cap hit on a RB at 4 is way above rb value, and then you look at the 5th year option and a second contract for a rb the value is bad unless they are elite of elite. A legitimate starting LT is better value by quite a bit.

Will Campbell needs to be the 15th best tackle in the league and he's a better pick than Jeanty unless Jeanty becomes Saquon Barkley. Which is more likely?

I recently watched a ton of tape on Campbell. You can easily see why everyone thinks he's an all pro if he moves to guard. I'd say he's equally as likely to be an all pro guard as Jeanty is an all pro RB.

Campbell is likely a solid LT or an all pro guard but with room to improve he's possibly better Than that.

Not sure why you bring up Evan Neal when historically running backs in the first round succeed at a lower rate than tackles. If you want to go by draft history the hit rate on Tackles in round 1 is 21% higher than rb.

Do you want Joe Thuney or Leonard Fournette? That's a better comparison then Neal.

If Campbell moves to guard the odds are even higher of success:

• Interior offensive linemen are draft-day gold: No position more consistently outperforms expectations in both Rounds 1 and 2.

2025 NFL Draft: What historical hit rates reveal about positional success

www.pff.com

Yes, I agree that LT has a higher positional value than RB....although I believe the positional value of RB has been severely under rated over the past 5 years. However we are looking at a LT with some very serious red flags about his potential to be successful at LT. Clearly LG has a lower positional value than LT.
Regarding RBs, not all RBs are created equal. If a RB is coming out with truly elite skills and physical traits that differentiate them from 99% of other RBS (like Barkley or Ladainlian Thompson), than the overall value of that RB should be consider higher than a more traditional RB position value would imply.
If you look at the scouting reports for Jeanty, the consistency has been pretty amazing and nearly all state he has traits that separate him from most RB's over the past 10 years.
If the choice is a mediocre LT or a game changing playmaking RB, despite the difference in positional value...I think a team like the Patriots with complete absence of offensive and playmaking threats should go for the elite RB when they can.
You are forgetting that the Patriots can still select a LT in the second round and based on the scouting reports the difference in quality between Campbell and a LT selected at 38 is highly debatable.

Can they find a "generational" (I know this term is overused) playmaking RB other than Jeanty in this draft. I doubt it. Hampton is a good player but not in Jeanty's class.

 

[KCSVEN]

Can they find a "generational" (I know this term is overused) playmaking RB other than Jeanty in this draft. I doubt it. Hampton is a good player but not in Jeanty's class.

I guess it comes down to how good Jeanty will be,

Everyone has him below Barkley, most have him below Bijan as a prospect. Haven't seen many say generational. If he's not generational then you're better off with a back later in the draft that is better value.

If Jeanty is a generational RB then, yeh, take him, just don't see that myself.

 

[scott99]

Jeanty’s film screams Laurence Maroney.

He’d also be the 3rd highest paid RB in the NFL if picked at #4. It’s not happening.

I’d like to lend you my glasses, they are extremely strong. The only person to ever say Jeanty’s and Maroney’s film is similar, is Stevie Wonder. You’d have to be a complete maroney to say the film is similar. The only similarities are they are RBs.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Picking a flawed LT at 4 when there is a much higher ranked offensive weapons available is crazy. Pats don’t have the luxury of picking for positional need at 4. They need top talent at any position period.

Taking Campbell at 4 is a mistake. There are LTs just as good who will be there in round 2

You don’t know what you are talking about. The tackles drop off a cliff after the first round, and Campbell is a highly decorated and extremely athletic prospect. You are doing almost as well at this as you did last year Sam, when you didn’t want Jayden Daniel’s because you “ didn’t like his articulation at the Heisman ceremony,” and then wanted them to trade out instead of taking their franchise QB.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I guess it comes down to how good Jeanty will be,

Everyone has him below Barkley, most have him below Bijan as a prospect. Haven't seen many say generational. If he's not generational then you're better off with a back later in the draft that is better value.

If Jeanty is a generational RB then, yeh, take him, just don't see that myself.

I agree. Jeanty is a decent prospect, but he’s not Barkley. And there are really good backs to be had on day 2 of this draft. Fix left tackle, then you can go RB or WR.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

It is hard to get a read on Jeanty. In the highlights I saw, he was running through holes that my pickup truck could get through. I did not see him run over anyone or around anyone; maybe he can, I just cannot tell. I don't get the hype.

The Patriots need to do the basics such as fixing the OLine before they make luxury picks like Jeanty. If Jeanty tried to run behind the current Patriots OLine, he would get killed.

 

[jdlboot14]

If we're going to go for a home run, get Warren.
Henry is average right now for the type of TE's that are coming up. We have Pop & Diggs, and if we add a dominate TE, we will have the type of weapons that we ruled the NFL during the heyday of Gronk & JE/Amendola.
We can get one of the OT's in the bottom 1st or top 2nd.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I’d like to lend you my glasses, they are extremely strong. The only person to ever say Jeanty’s and Maroney’s film is similar, is Stevie Wonder. You’d have to be a complete maroney to say the film is similar. The only similarities are they are RBs.

It is hard to get a read on Jeanty. In the highlights I saw, he was running through holes that my pickup truck could get through. I did not see him run over anyone or around anyone; maybe he can, I just cannot tell. I don't get the hype.

The Patriots need to do the basics such as fixing the OLine before they make luxury picks like Jeanty. If Jeanty tried to run behind the current Patriots OLine, he would get killed.

That's where the Maroney college highlights comparison came from with me.