The 2014 Mock draft Thread.

[captain stone]

Bump.

- Early cuts: Vince Wilfork, Isaac Sapoaga, Adrian Wilson.
- Early restructures: Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Slater.
- Pats re-sign Aqib Talib.
- Pats re-sign LeGarrette Blount.
- Pats sign UFA DT Linval Joseph.
- Pats sign UFA TE Brandon Pettigrew. If Jermaine Gresham gets released, I'd go after him.
- Pats sign UFA WR Riley Cooper.
- Pats sign UFA DE Will Smith.

Draft: (no Mallett trade this time)

29. DT: Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh (6' 1" 290#) / Timmy Jernigan, Florida St. (6' 2" 298#) / Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota (6' 6" 318#).
62. DE/OLB: Trent Murphy, Stanford (6' 6" 252#) / Marcus Smith, Louisville (6' 3 1/2" 258#) / Christian Jones, Florida St. (6' 3 1/2" 236#).
93. Interior OL: Weston Richburg, Colorado St. (6' 3" 300#) / Joel Bitonio, Nevada (6' 4" 307#) / Marcus Martin, USC (6' 3" 310#).
4. TE: Richard Rodgers, Cal (6' 4" 245#) / Arthur Lynch, Georgia (6' 5" 258#) / Xavier Grimble, USC (6'5" 250#).
6a. LB: Tyler Starr, South Dakota (6' 4 1/2" 249#).
6b. DB: Antone Exum, Virginia Tech (6' 220#).
6 (comp). DB: Jonathan Dowling, Western Kentucky (6' 2 1/2" 198#) / Dontae Johnson, North Carolina St. (6' 2 1/2" 199#).
7. FB/H-Back/Move TE: Trey Millard, Oklahoma (6' 3" 253#) / Colt Lyerla, Oregon (6' 5" 250#) / Larry Webster, Bloomsburg (6' 6" 249#; conversion prospect).

In the unlikely scenario of a Mallett trade, I'd go after more interior OL help with someone like Xavier Su'a-Filo, David Yankey or Gabe Jackson.

As of right now, this looks like the best best-case mock/free agency scenario for which we could hope.
All 4 of our (IMHO) most pressing needs are addressed in the first 4 rounds: Prisoner replacement,
Wendy replacement, Edge defender & Up-the-middle pressure.
If Talib is re-signed, then DB depth can be addressed on the 3rd day, including perhaps our SS of the
future, Antone Exum.

Make it so, Bill.

 

[mayoclinic]

As of right now, this looks like the best best-case mock/free agency scenario for which we could hope.
All 4 of our (IMHO) most pressing needs are addressed in the first 4 rounds: Prisoner replacement,
Wendy replacement, Edge defender & Up-the-middle pressure.
If Talib is re-signed, then DB depth can be addressed on the 3rd day, including perhaps our SS of the
future, Antone Exum.

Make it so, Bill.

Thanks for the kind words.

I think it's reasonably realistic, and I've tried to factor in a lot of input from the board regarding team needs. Talib and Blount have liked their time with the Pats and will re-sign if the Pats are in the neighborhood. The only big name in FA is Linval Joseph. The WR and TE options are fairly low cost, as would be DE Will Smith (a player who BB said that he would have seriously considered in 2004 if he had lasted to #21 overall). Smith has the size and skill set to make a nice rotational player with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. As for the draft choices, I've tried to provide a couple of alternatives at each position who are in the right general range of the specified pick.

From a cap perspective, I also think it's workable:

- The Pats will hopefully have around $3M in cap space available for FA, depending on where the league-wide cap actually comes in. Using the $126.3M December estimate they might only have $1M or so to spend after allocating funds for the draft, PS, and contingency funds, but I think there's a good chance that the league-wide cap will come in a bit higher.

- Restructuring McCourty, Gostkowski and Slater should free up around $3M in 2014 cap space.

- Cutting Wilfork, Sapoaga and Adrian Wilson should free up around $12M in cap space.

That would leave around $18M in 2014 cap space to sign FAs. The hits for Talib and Linval Joseph would likely chew up about half of that. Blount, Will Smith, a FA TE and a FA WR could probably be squeezed in for around $10M or so in 2014 cap hits. Add in low-level signings like Dane Fletcher and Danny Aiken, and maybe Will Svitek (or a cheap alternative like Gabe Carimi) and the total 2014 cap cost should only be around $20-21M or so, within range of a few cuts or restructures.

I wouldn't complain if the Pats find a way to sign Michael Johnson or Alex Mack, or trade Ryan Mallett for a high 2nd or better, but those seem like very long shots right now. This seems more realistic to me, and still hits most of the major areas to improve for 2014.

 

[stelfans]

That was a very good one Mayo. Even though my preference is to sign arthur jones and maybe draft Ellis later if Wilfork is cut.
But the logic is the same.

And i noticed you didnt mentioned Kelly, is that a given he wont be back?

 

[mayoclinic]

That was a very good one Mayo. Even though my preference is to sign arthur jones and maybe draft Ellis later if Wilfork is cut.
But the logic is the same.

And i noticed you didnt mentioned Kelly, is that a given he wont be back?

No, not at all.

I don't see any need to make a rush to sort out Kelly's situation. He played very well last year before getting hurt, he embraced the Patriot way and spoke openly about enjoying his time here, he provides veteran leadership on a young line, and his cap hit is not excessive. OTOH, he's coming off an ACL injury, is 33, and the Pats could save around $2.2M by cutting him.

I wouldn't do anything with Kelly's situation right now, except check in on how he's rehabbing and touch base with him about the team moving forward. I think the odds are he'll be back, but depending on how FA and the draft go and his physical status or the Pats' cap situation he could possibly be a numbers casualty. I doubt we'll know the outcome until at least June and more likely training camp.

 

[gobesmug]

Love this mock/fa plan. When looking at DT. If the pats keep Kelly and draft a Hageman/Donald, then I would rather see the pats make a move for Jared Allen, for the cost of Joseph and Smith.

Imagine Jones, Kelly, Hageman/Donald, Allen. That would be a front 4 capable of some serious pressure. Especially if Donald lasts to #29.

 

[mayoclinic]

Love this mock/fa plan. When looking at DT. If the pats keep Kelly and draft a Hageman/Donald, then I would rather see the pats make a move for Jared Allen, for the cost of Joseph and Smith.

Imagine Jones, Kelly, Hageman/Donald, Allen. That would be a front 4 capable of some serious pressure. Especially if Donald lasts to #29.

I'm not keen about spending big money for a 32 year old DE. I'd love Allen at the right price on a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option, but not at the cost you suggest.

One guy I've overlooked a bit is Chicago DE Corey Wootton. 26 years old, 6'6" 270#. Very versatile player, played inside most of 2013 after Henry Melton got hurt. Can play in 3-4 or 4-3 schemes. He's 6-7 years younger than Allen (or Will Smith) and should be considerably cheaper.

Jones/Ninkovich/Wootton/Buchanan at DE and Joseph/Kelly/Armstead/Siliga/Jones at DT would give the Pats a very deep and solid DL going into the draft. They could the. Go after the BPA at 29 - one of the DTs, a rangy LB like Kyle Van Noy or Ryan Shazier, a TE or OL, maybe even go after Calvin Pryor.

 

[gobesmug]

I'm not keen about spending big money for a 32 year old DE. I'd love Allen at the right price on a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option, but not at the cost you suggest.

One guy I've overlooked a bit is Chicago DE Corey Wootton. 26 years old, 6'6" 270#. Very versatile player, played inside most of 2013 after Henry Melton got hurt. Can play in 3-4 or 4-3 schemes. He's 6-7 years younger than Allen (or Will Smith) and should be considerably cheaper.

Jones/Ninkovich/Wootton/Buchanan at DE and Joseph/Kelly/Armstead/Siliga/Jones at DT would give the Pats a very deep and solid DL going into the draft. They could the. Go after the BPA at 29 - one of the DTs, a rangy LB like Kyle Van Noy or Ryan Shazier, a TE or OL, maybe even go after Calvin Pryor.

Wooten does seem like a BB pick up.

I agree that Allen is only worth it for the right price. I'm tempted to start a thread with the goal of gauging his FA value. If Allen wants to get paid above anything else, then I don't see him being a pat. However, if his desire is to play for a contender; I remember rumors from last year that Allen wanted to be traded to a contender. If true, then how many teams would you list as contenders during the FA.

My short list would be: Seattle, SF, NE, Denver, New Orleans, Carolina?, Colts?, Packers?.

Of those teams, how many play the 4-3 and have the potential cap space for a decent contract. I see only NE in that category. Not to mention the pats signed his Dline coach from the Vikings.

 

[stelfans]

btw, Mayo dont read Linval Joseph twitter Seems like the guy loves NYC and wants to stay a giant. Things change and it means very little but my bet is he is staying put.

 

[mayoclinic]

Wooten does seem like a BB pick up.

I agree that Allen is only worth it for the right price. I'm tempted to start a thread with the goal of gauging his FA value. If Allen wants to get paid above anything else, then I don't see him being a pat. However, if his desire is to play for a contender; I remember rumors from last year that Allen wanted to be traded to a contender. If true, then how many teams would you list as contenders during the FA.

My short list would be: Seattle, SF, NE, Denver, New Orleans, Carolina?, Colts?, Packers?.

Of those teams, how many play the 4-3 and have the potential cap space for a decent contract. I see only NE in that category. Not to mention the pats signed his Dline coach from the Vikings.

Brendan Daly could also have some influence.

Again, I'm all for Allen, but only at the right price.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

If Linval is off the board, is Meltons ACL injury going to lower his cost enough to make him a viable option?

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

btw, Mayo dont read Linval Joseph twitter Seems like the guy loves NYC and wants to stay a giant. Things change and it means very little but my bet is he is staying put.

That doesn't mean anything.

Brendan Daly could also have some influence.

Again, I'm all for Allen, but only at the right price.

I'd love Allen if he wants to take a discount and play for a ring. I wouldn't mind Jones learning from him either.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Would really have liked Pryor in the 2nd because i hate Gregory. But his stock is soaring up into the first half of the first.

 

[manxman2601]

If Ebron fell to 18, Id consider trading a future pick and player to grab him there then grab either Donald at 29. Starting to give Buchannon srs consideration at 29 though.

I wouldn't trade a future pick for Ebron, but I would trade a third to get him if he fell into the twenties.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm not keen about spending big money for a 32 year old DE. I'd love Allen at the right price on a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option, but not at the cost you suggest.

One guy I've overlooked a bit is Chicago DE Corey Wootton. 26 years old, 6'6" 270#. Very versatile player, played inside most of 2013 after Henry Melton got hurt. Can play in 3-4 or 4-3 schemes. He's 6-7 years younger than Allen (or Will Smith) and should be considerably cheaper.

Jones/Ninkovich/Wootton/Buchanan at DE and Joseph/Kelly/Armstead/Siliga/Jones at DT would give the Pats a very deep and solid DL going into the draft. They could the. Go after the BPA at 29 - one of the DTs, a rangy LB like Kyle Van Noy or Ryan Shazier, a TE or OL, maybe even go after Calvin Pryor.

I like the idea of Wootton as a BB target. 6'6" and 34" arms is ideal length. Combine that with the fact that he had a pre-draft visit and a decent 3cone* and I think he'd be on the map.

If I was to put my money on a Patriot FA signing, Wootton might be it.

A Chicago news outlet discusses Wootton

2014 NFL Off-Season: Will Corey Wootton be back with the Bears? - Bears Backer

* despite what people think, these two elements are relevant to free agent signings and are often a common theme. The 3 cone is important to BB in drafting or signing DE.

 

[mayoclinic]

I like the idea of Wootton as a BB target. 6'6" and 34" arms is ideal length. Combine that with the fact that he had a pre-draft visit and a decent 3cone* and I think he'd be on the map.

If I was to put my money on a Patriot FA signing, Wootton might be it.

A Chicago news outlet discusses Wootton

2014 NFL Off-Season: Will Corey Wootton be back with the Bears? - Bears Backer

* despite what people think, these two elements are relevant to free agent signings and are often a common theme. The 3 cone is important to BB in drafting or signing DE.

Actually 34 3/4" arms according to the 2010 NFL Combine sheet:

NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Corey Wootton

Jared Allen is a nice dream, but he'll likely be too pricey, will be 32, and there was some question last season as to whether he was starting to drop off significantly.

Wootton, OTOH, is a solid under-the-radar BB kind of signing, and a very under-rated player. Good length and movement skills. The knock on him coming out was that he was a pass rusher but couldn't play the run; the knock on him now is that he's solid against the run but not much of a pass rusher. Wootton's stats were affected by throwing him inside when Henry Melton got hurt, and he played through a hip condition which slowed him, for which he had arthoscopic surgery last month:

According to the doctor who performed the surgery, Dr. Benjamin Domb, Wootton had his hip labrum repaired as well as a decompression of a terminal femoroacetabular impingement, a condition that occurs when a person's hip bones are abnormally shaped and therefore rub against the labrum and cartilage, causing joint damage.

Wootton is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after the 6-foot-6 defensive lineman recorded 35 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 2013. Wootton had a career-high 7.0 sacks in 2012, but was forced to move inside and play heavy snaps at defensive tackle this past season due to a rash of injuries on the Bears' defensive line.

“I'm looking forward to being 100 percent recovered from this, to really showcase what I can do,” Wootton said in the release.

Dr. Domb expects Wootton to make a full recovery from the procedure in time for next season.

NFL players routinely undergo offseason surgical procedures to deal with nagging injuries. Wootton appeared in only 13 regular-season games over his first two years with the Bears because of a variety of health issues, but managed to play in all 16 games in each of the past two seasons.

“Corey is an incredible athlete and physical specimen and generates tremendous power with his body. In order to perform at his elite level, he needs a well-functioning hip,” Domb said. “Now that he has had his hip issue repaired, my expectation is that Corey will perform even better on the field than in previous years.”

Corey Wootton undergoes hip surgery - Chicago Bears Blog - ESPN Chicago

That article also has this tidbit from Bears GM Phil Emery:

In his end of the year press conference, Bears general manager Phil Emery said he expected Wootton to have options in free agency, but Emery noted the club would keep the lines of communications open with Wootton up until and through the start of the new league year on March 11.

“Corey is one of the guys that would transcend scheme,” Emery said. “I was in a 3-4, a pure, straight 3-4 defense in Kansas City and he could have been the right end. If he put a little weight on, he could be the left end. He played under-tackle for us. Actually Corey was most disruptive as a pass-rusher, between the defensive end and defensive tackle, at defensive tackle this year. Now in the past obviously he had a pretty good year a year ago. He's a guy that transcends scheme for us.

We said bye to each other as he was leaving and he knows that we're going to work through it and I know he's going to have options. We're going to be very thorough, like we are with all our evaluations. I'm sure that we'll continue to talk to him.”

I think a core DE group of Jones-Ninkovich-Wootton-Buchanan would be very solid, with Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and Armond Armstead also probably getting snaps at DE (not including 3 man base fronts). That would give a lot of versatility, pretty much give the Pats a solid base end rotation going into the draft, and allow them to focus on adding more speed at the second level through the draft with guys along the lines of Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones and Tyler Starr.

 

[manxman2601]

Actually 34 3/4" arms according to the 2010 NFL Combine sheet:

NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Corey Wootton

Jared Allen is a nice dream, but he'll likely be too pricey, will be 32, and there was some question last season as to whether he was starting to drop off significantly.

Wootton, OTOH, is a solid under-the-radar BB kind of signing, and a very under-rated player. Good length and movement skills. The knock on him coming out was that he was a pass rusher but couldn't play the run; the knock on him now is that he's solid against the run but not much of a pass rusher.

Interesting because the NFL.com pre-draft scouting report on Wootton was that "he excels in run defense using his long arms and toughness to disengage from blockers and make plays". That's close to #1 on BB's 'What I look for from a DE' list.

NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Corey Wootton

I'm starting to wonder why they didn't draft him now Seems too perfect a fit.

 

[Ivan]

We've had extensive discussions about perception of draft needs. I see TE as an important need, but not more important than the defense. Obviously, I recognize that there are other points of view on this issue.

I have had TE as a priority for a while but the Super Bowl moved it to the top of the list. watching the Seahawks dismantle the Bronco's drove home the point to me that the reason the Patriots played them so tough in Seattle was because they had their two TE offense going full tilt. To beat Seattle, SF, and some of the other top defenses i think that they are going to need both a really good two TE offense and they will need to get back to their NASCAR offense to keep them on their heels. You cannot allow those teams to dictate the pace of the game and you won't beat them with a strong run game or an offense that relies heavily upon the wideouts. With a really good receiving TE added to the mix and the young WR's with another year under their belt they can achieve both of those goals.

I wouldn't reach for one but if they have a top TE ranked high enough to warrant a first then I would be all for it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Interesting because the NFL.com pre-draft scouting report on Wootton was that "he excels in run defense using his long arms and toughness to disengage from blockers and make plays". That's close to #1 on BB's 'What I look for from a DE' list.

NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Corey Wootton

I'm starting to wonder why they didn't draft him now Seems too perfect a fit.

I think that the problem was that the Pats were still focused on the 3-4 in 2010, and Wootton didn't fit cleanly into that scheme. He was a bit too light for a 3-4 DE, and not quite mobile enough for a 3-4 OLB, though he can play both in a pinch. But he's best suited as a 4-3 power end. The 2010 draft was rich in 4-3 power ends - Carlos Dunlap and Greg Hardy also came out of that draft - and the Pats missed out IMO by not yet being fully transitioned to more of a hybrid defensive approach. They were obviously intrigued by Wootton, and worked him out privately, but weren't quite ready to pull the trigger.

The situation is entirely different now, because Wootton is a much more natural fit in our defense.

 

[Ivan]

I tried to address in-line TE in FA (Pettigrew, or Gresham if he's cut). If that need wasn't addressed in FA, I'd see it as a higher priority in the draft - if we somehow got a Mallett pick I'd use it on ASJ or Niklas, depending on how high it was.

I tried to address the "move TE" (prisoner replacement) position via a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick. I think Richard Rodgers or Arthur Lynch would be very, very good. I also think that a guy like Trey Millard has the tools to be a versatile H-back weapon for us. Colt Lyerla is obviously too much like he-who-shall-not-be-named in more respects than one. I also think that Mark Harrison has potential as a conversion. I'm personally happy with that combo, but again, I recognize that viewpoints will differ.




.

I would be fine with either the Gresham or Pettigrew move if they can get them at the right price and if so the move to take one later in the draft, e.g..Rodgers, makes sense, however if they cannot address it adequately in free agency then it goes to the top of the list for me, although i still would never reach to address it, so if their grade on a guy like Amaro is mid to late 2nd then don't touch him in the 1st.

 

[Ivan]

* despite what people think, these two elements are relevant to free agent signings and are often a common theme. The 3 cone is important to BB in drafting or signing DE.

I think Belichick tracks players from early on in college right through their years in the pro's, and as combine drills go I would agree that he puts more emphasis on the 3 cone than most, however when it comes to veteran contracts i don't believe for one second that they revisit a player's combine numbers 3-4 years after they have been in the league, i think they look only at their performance in the pro's and the available tape they have on them. It would, however, be an interesting question to pose to Holley, who would have more insight on it than pretty much anyone else who can actually talk about it.