The 2014 Mock draft Thread.

[manxman2601]

@Mayo

I'm curious to know when it was you soured on ASJ. You were very high on him last year.

 

[manxman2601]

I think Belichick tracks players from early on in college right through their years in the pro's, and as combine drills go I would agree that he puts more emphasis on the 3 cone than most, however when it comes to veteran contracts i don't believe for one second that they revisit a player's combine numbers 3-4 years after they have been in the league, i think they look only at their performance in the pro's and the available tape they have on them. It would, however, be an interesting question to pose to Holley, who would have more insight on it than pretty much anyone else who can actually talk about it.

I think BB includes all data sources including tape, combine and pre-draft visits and interviews. I'm not saying a bad 3 cone is a red flag (see Michael Johnson) but I do think it helps (see Mark Anderson, Rob Ninkovich).

 

[ashley]

Would really have liked Pryor in the 2nd because i hate Gregory. But his stock is soaring up into the first half of the first.

Agree, wish we could have even grabbed him with our first round pick. It looks like he might even pass Dix as the first safety picked in the draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

@Mayo

I'm curious to know when it was you soured on ASJ. You were very high on him last year.

Manx,

I'm not sure I've "soured" on ASJ, but I'm not quite as high on him as I was.

First, I am a huge TE fan. It's probably my favorite position on offense, and I fully subscribe to Mike Smith's "queen on the chessboard" theory in which TEs can act as "compound multipliers" and increase the degrees of motion of an offense. For that reason, I rate them much more highly than WRs. I've been pretty open on that front, and my views haven't changed.

Y! SPORTS
Y! SPORTS

Nothing would make me happier on offense than to see the return of a dominant TE-based approach, especially merged with a power running game.

I tend to re-evaluate prospects multiple times over the course of their college career. Lots of guys have an initial appeal, but over the course of their career my perception of them changes. I'm tremendously intrigued by Baylor's Shawn Oakman, for example, but it's way too early in his development to form a definite opinion of just how good he can be. I thought Stephon Tuitt could potentially be another Richard Seymour at one point, but I don't see it right now, and wouldn't take him in the 1st round (2nd round would be quite reasonable).

Austin Seferian-Jenkins had a great rookie season followed by a dominant sophomore one. I thought early in his sophomore year that he could be "another Gronk", and the idea of putting 2 Gronks + Ahern on the field was very, very appealing. Obviously things have changed tremendously since then between Gronk's injuries and Hernandez' incarceration.

I still think ASJ will be a fine player, but his junior season paled in comparison to his sophomore one - whether because of a lack of effort/development, a lack of his being properly used, or a combination of the two is hard to say - and I don't think that he has Gronk's absurd athleticism and explosiveness. But he's a very solid facsimile. I agree that he's a relatively developed pass-catcher who is adept in traffic (probably due to his basketball background) and who can run the entire route tree. Right now only Gronk and Troy Niklas appeal to me as in-line TE prospects in this draft, and I haven't made up my mind about the two of them. Niklas is obviously rawer right now, and Matt Miller questions his speed. I am not high on CJ Fiedorowicz at all - I don't think he can get separation, and is a limited receiving threat.

I'm not sure I'd take ASJ with a 1st round pick - I'm just not sure the explosiveness is there. I wouldn't be at all disappointed with a trade back/up to get him around the 40-45 range, but I think 29 is a bit of a reach. Right now I rate him behind Eric Ebron but well ahead of Jace Amaro, with Niklas still not full evaluated. So I don't think I'm "down" on him, just not quite as high as you are, or perhaps as I once was. I've by no means set my views in stone with 3 months to go before the draft, and I'm just as fallible as the next guy, but that's sort of where I am at the moment.

As usual, a long-winded answer to a short question.

 

[JerseyShore99]

Just saw a 3 round mock draft and the Pats took Amaro, Coleman, and Sankey respectively. Although NE has several D-needs I don't really mind this mock

 

[mayoclinic]

Just saw a 3 round mock draft and the Pats took Amaro, Coleman, and Sankey respectively. Although NE has several D-needs I don't really mind this mock

That draft is just about my worst nightmare.

 

[JerseyShore99]

That draft is just about my worst nightmare.

I like them all as prospects just not all for NE, besides Amaro, want him

 

[Luxusdk]

Mayo, You talk about Troy Niklas could be a Hernandez type player, do have the multi-concussions added to that list also? So he would be out as much as Hernandez aswell

Regard ASJ: I think he's the main target for Seahawks, i dont see him be there in the second.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, You talk about Troy Niklas could be a Hernandez type player, do have the multi-concussions added to that list also? So he would be out as much as Hernandez aswell

If you intend this as a serious question, would you mind translating it into English please?

Niklas has nothing in common with Hernandez other than the nominal designation "TE", and I've never compared them. I'm not aware of Hernandez having a concussion history prior to the 2010 draft, either.

Niklas' concussion history is well known, I was aware of it, and it would have to be part of his medical evaluation and factored in to his overall appraisal. The Pats have taken players with concussion histories before (Nate Solder, I believe).

I'm not aware of any player in the NFL who is immune to injuries. It's part of the nature of the sport, and that's the reason to develop depth. It's a pretty good bet that anyone we draft at any position will miss some time due to injury during his career.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I'm not aware of any player in the NFL who is immune to injuries. It's part of the nature of the sport, and that's the reason to develop depth. It's a pretty good bet that anyone we draft at any position will miss some time due to injury during his career.

This is such a true statement. There is so much behind the scenes that goes into scouting these players. Medical histories and character/background checks are two that are vital to the process, but we see very little of as outsiders.

I can imagine that agents want to keep certain injuries like concussion histories buried from pro teams/scouts,but at the same time that has to be harder and harder to do since concussions have become a more visible part of the game.

Any player that walks onto any field is one play away from a serious or career threatening injury at any time, practice or game.

 

[zimmy]

Quick new mock from me.

1. Ryan Shazier LB. Love Shazier and I've been wanting a coverage backer for a few years now. Would make up for missing out on Lavonte David a few years ago. Shazier could even possibly convert to safety, but he can play on 3rd down in the big nickel, blitzing and covering. Our biggest issues are on 3rd down and he'd help hugely.

2. Jarvis Landry WR. People are going to say taking a WR this high is a waste after taking 3 last year but I don't see it. After Gronk went down we really couldn't move the ball through the air. Getting another weapon for Brady is important and I like Landry. My ideal would be to somehow pick up Brandin Cooks but I don't think he lasts this far.

Trade Mallett to Houston for a 3rd rounder.

3a. Kelcy Quarles DT. If we keep Wilfork and Kelly this becomes a luxury pick, but I think he could wreak havoc on 3rd down rushing the passer. I'm picking him on the basis that one of Wilfork/Kelly won't be back.

3b Richard Rodgers TE.
4. Joel Bitonio OT.
6 Brett Smith QB
6 Aaron Colvin CB
6 Tyler Larsen C.
7 DeAnthony Thomas RB

 

[mayoclinic]

Quick new mock from me.

1. Ryan Shazier LB. Love Shazier and I've been wanting a coverage backer for a few years now. Would make up for missing out on Lavonte David a few years ago. Shazier could even possibly convert to safety, but he can play on 3rd down in the big nickel, blitzing and covering. Our biggest issues are on 3rd down and he'd help hugely.

2. Jarvis Landry WR. People are going to say taking a WR this high is a waste after taking 3 last year but I don't see it. After Gronk went down we really couldn't move the ball through the air. Getting another weapon for Brady is important and I like Landry. My ideal would be to somehow pick up Brandin Cooks but I don't think he lasts this far.

Trade Mallett to Houston for a 3rd rounder.

3a. Kelcy Quarles DT. If we keep Wilfork and Kelly this becomes a luxury pick, but I think he could wreak havoc on 3rd down rushing the passer. I'm picking him on the basis that one of Wilfork/Kelly won't be back.

3b Richard Rodgers TE.
4. Joel Bitonio OT.
6 Brett Smith QB
6 Aaron Colvin CB
6 Tyler Larsen C.
7 DeAnthony Thomas RB

Love the Shazier pick - he's moved into my short list for 29 if the top 3 DTs aren't available (thanks, Manx). Not wild about Landry. Quarles in the 3rd and Bitonio in the 4th are terrific values - you might need to flip-flop Bitonio and Rodgers as things currently stand. Rodgers, Smith, Colvin, Larsen and Thomas are all solid values where you have them. Good job.

 

[mayoclinic]

Just a game, but I got this mock out of my most recent attempt at First-Draft (with a lot of trading back):

39. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh.
62. Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech. I'm not a huge Amaro fan, but he would be great value here.
68. Christian Jones, LB, Florida St.
70. Weston Richburg, OC, Colorado.
94. Dominique Easley, DT, Florida.
99. Jimmy Ward, S, Northern Illinois.
125. Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska.
143. Brandon Thomas, OG, Clemson.
174. Antone Exum, DB, Virginia Tech.
182. Brent Urban, DT/DE, Virginia.
190. Marcus Martin, OC, USC.
221. Aaron Lynch, DE, USF.

I could live with that draft.

 

[Brady6]

- Extend and restructure Vince Wilfork.
- Extend Stephen Gostkowski.
- Extend Devin McCourty.

- Release Isaac Sopoaga.
- Release Steven Gregory.
- Release Dan Connolly.
- Release Tommy Kelly.
- Release Adrian Wilson.

- Resign Aqib Talib.
- Resign Julian Edelman.
- Resign LeGarrette Blount.
- Resign Dane Fletcher

- Sign Arthur Jones.
- Sign TJ Ward
- Sign Riley Cooper.
- Sign Scott Chandler.
- Sign Matt Cassel.

- Trade Ryan Mallett and a conditional 2015 draft pick to the Houston Texans for their 2014 second round draft pick.

- Draft Stephon Tuitt (1st)
- Draft Travis Swanson (2nd)
- Draft Troy Niklas (2nd)
- Draft Marcus Smith (3rd)
- Draft C.J. Fiedorowicz (4th)
- Draft Telvin Smith (5th)
- Draft Brandon Coleman (6th)
- Draft Zach Mettenberger (6th)

*Traded a sixth and seventh round draft picks to move back into the fifth round.

 

[manxman2601]

- Extend and restructure Vince Wilfork.
- Extend Stephen Gostkowski.
- Extend Devin McCourty.

- Release Isaac Sopoaga.
- Release Steven Gregory.
- Release Dan Connolly.
- Release Tommy Kelly.
- Release Adrian Wilson.

- Resign Aqib Talib.
- Resign Julian Edelman.
- Resign LeGarrette Blount.
- Resign Dane Fletcher

- Sign Arthur Jones.
- Sign TJ Ward
- Sign Riley Cooper.
- Sign Scott Chandler.
- Sign Matt Cassel.

- Trade Ryan Mallett and a conditional 2015 draft pick to the Houston Texans for their 2014 second round draft pick.

- Draft Stephon Tuitt (1st)
- Draft Travis Swanson (2nd)
- Draft Troy Niklas (2nd)
- Draft Marcus Smith (3rd)
- Draft C.J. Fiedorowicz (4th)
- Draft Telvin Smith (5th)
- Draft Brandon Coleman (6th)
- Draft Zach Mettenberger (6th)

*Traded a sixth and seventh round draft picks to move back into the fifth round.

Like the draft (Coleman in the 6th!?!) a lot but I don't really like the FA moves. I would keep Gregory and Kelly.

I would also say that Niklas, Chandler and Fiedorowicz are too similar. Rodgers or Grimble would make more sense there and you don't need to sign Chandler.

But good mock again.

 

[Brady6]

Like the draft (Coleman in the 6th!?!) a lot but I don't really like the FA moves. I would keep Gregory and Kelly.



I would also say that Niklas, Chandler and Fiedorowicz are too similar. Rodgers or Grimble would make more sense there and you don't need to sign Chandler.



But good mock again.

Coleman is wishful thinking.

I was thinking the money invested in Kelly and Gregory would go toward signing Jones and Ward.

I agree on the TEs.

 

[mayoclinic]

- Extend and restructure Vince Wilfork.
- Extend Stephen Gostkowski.
- Extend Devin McCourty.

- Release Isaac Sopoaga.
- Release Steven Gregory.
- Release Dan Connolly.
- Release Tommy Kelly.
- Release Adrian Wilson.

- Resign Aqib Talib.
- Resign Julian Edelman.
- Resign LeGarrette Blount.
- Resign Dane Fletcher

- Sign Arthur Jones.
- Sign TJ Ward
- Sign Riley Cooper.
- Sign Scott Chandler.
- Sign Matt Cassel.

The Pats will have about $3-4M at most to spend on FA prior to cuts and extensions/restructurings. Releasing Sapoaga, Gregory, Connolly, Kelly, Wilson frees up something around $11M in cap space. Call it (generously) $15M in total cap space to spend on FAs. Restructuring Wilfork and extending McCourty and Ghost would free up another $5-6M or so in 2014 cap space. Call it (generously, again) $21M in total cap space to spend on FAs.

If you can sign Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, Julian Edelman, Arthur Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Riley Cooper, Scott Chandler, Matt Cassel and Dane Fletcher, and do it for a 2014 cap hit of $21M, you should be a candidate for Executive of the Year. I'm guessing you're looking at upwards of $30M in 2014 cap hit for those contracts.

 

[jsull87]

Coleman is wishful thinking.

I was thinking the money invested in Kelly and Gregory would go toward signing Jones and Ward.

I agree on the TEs.

Re Jones in FA.

I'd keep Kelly and not sign Jones. It's cheaper, Kelly was good last year before injury and hopefully he'll get impact game time i.e Gerrard Warren as Jones, Silinga and your 1st rounder (tuitt - i'd pick Donald here) get more game time.

That would save money for your more important impact signing of Ward at S and at the same time allow the youth and vets to mingle at the DT position with good depth.

Arthur Jones IMO is not going to be worth the money in FA.

 

[ashley]

- Extend and restructure Vince Wilfork.
- Extend Stephen Gostkowski.
- Extend Devin McCourty.

- Release Isaac Sopoaga.
- Release Steven Gregory.
- Release Dan Connolly.
- Release Tommy Kelly.
- Release Adrian Wilson.

- Resign Aqib Talib.
- Resign Julian Edelman.
- Resign LeGarrette Blount.
- Resign Dane Fletcher

- Sign Arthur Jones.
- Sign TJ Ward
- Sign Riley Cooper.
- Sign Scott Chandler.
- Sign Matt Cassel.

- Trade Ryan Mallett and a conditional 2015 draft pick to the Houston Texans for their 2014 second round draft pick.

- Draft Stephon Tuitt (1st)
- Draft Travis Swanson (2nd)
- Draft Troy Niklas (2nd)
- Draft Marcus Smith (3rd)
- Draft C.J. Fiedorowicz (4th)
- Draft Telvin Smith (5th)
- Draft Brandon Coleman (6th)
- Draft Zach Mettenberger (6th)

*Traded a sixth and seventh round draft picks to move back into the fifth round.

If we can get a 2nd round pick for Mallet, I'd be the happiest girl in Mass!!!!!!

I really like that you have us resigning Talib and Edelman. I think most people think we will not resign both, but I think it's very important that we do.

As far as the draft goes, I don't know a lot of the players like some of the other posters do and have just started watching tape, but I wasn't that big on Tuitt. I really liked Hageman better or Donald better. I know they might be gone though.

The two tight ends would be perfect, I really like double dipping. I also like Smith as well.

 

[Brady6]

Trades:
New England Patriots trade pick #29 to the Houston Texans (who use #29 to draft Zack Martin) for picks #33, and #65.
New England Patriots trade Ryan Mallett, and a conditional 2015 draft pick to the Minnesota Vikings for picks #40 and #72.

Mock:
#33 – Louis Nix III, NT/DT
#40 – Stephon Tuitt, DE/DT
#62 – Travis Swanson, OC
#65 – Ed Reynolds, FS/SS
#72 – Troy Niklas, TE
#93 – Marcus Smith, DE/OLB
#126 – Brandon Coleman, WR
Compensatory – Telvin Smith, LB/S
#182 – Trey Burton, TE/WR
#190 – Pierre Desir, CB
#229 – Jeff Janis, WR