The 11 point rule...

[VrabelMayeWin]

You still haven't compared the Pats to any other team. How often do other teams win after being down by 11 points? Right now you're just giving a no-brainer: it's hard to come back from an 11 point defecit.

Additionally I would like to see more in depth numbers. 11 point deficit - OK - but when in the game. How often do we end up down by 11 in the first half ? Down by 11+ midway through the 2nd quarter is much more likely to result in a comeback than early in the 4th quarter and our defense isn't one that gives up lots of early points.

If someone wants to make a useful point I would like to see the Patriots' record compared to other teams when down by 11 at halftime - then we're talking.

 

[Patjew]

I really don't think this is such a bad topic. I know I never feel the Colts are out of a game regardless of the deficit. I think it's a matter of perceived explosiveness. Right or wrong, the Pats seem more like grinder-them-outers than light-em-up-in-a-hurry. Anyway, for me it's all perception.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I really don't think this is such a bad topic. I know I never feel the Colts are out of a game regardless of the deficit. I think it's a matter of perceived explosiveness. Right or wrong, the Pats seem more like grinder-them-outers than light-em-up-in-a-hurry. Anyway, for me it's all perception.

I just don't think the stats are relevant until we know when in the game we were down by 11. You can bet your last dollar the Colts have more big deficits early than we do - thus more chances at big comebacks.

 

[Mix]

I'm not sure what the point of this thread is other than to nit-pick at stats and find something to complain about. It should be obvious that the odds of a team coming back from a 12+ point deficit aren't good.

I went through and checked on the records of 8 teams during the regular season over the last 5 years while trailing by 12+ at any point of the game.

Colts: 4-15 (.211)
Rams: 5-28 (.152)
Chargers: 2-20 (.091)
Ravens: 2-20 (.091)
Pats: 1-14 (.067)
Eagles: 1-15 (.063)
Jets: 1-20 (.048)
Steelers: 0-16 (0)

TOTAL: 16-148 (.098)


I also checked when they first trailed by 12 or more before half-time.

Colts: 4-11 (.267)
Rams: 4-15 (.211)
Ravens: 2-10 (.167)
Eagles: 1-8 (.111)
Jets: 1-11 (.083)
Chargers: 1-14 (.067)
Pats: 0-7 (0)
Steelers: 0-7 (0)

TOTAL: 13-83 (.135)


Over half of the time the Pats didn't go down by 12+ until the second half of the game, compared to the Colts who were down by that much before halftime in all but 4 games.
Obviously the winning percentage when trailing by that much isn't very high. While the Pats winning percentage is slightly lower than the average of the teams I looked up, you can't really fault them for what its at or expect it to be considerably higher.

 

[cstjohn17]

Lets hope we are not in a position to improve our 1-15 performance. Someone made the point about the 03 season when the Patriots played with a lead the majority of the time. This is how the team is built, get a lead and let the other offense become one dimensional (except if it is the Colts).

 

[rabthepat]

I am thinking with the addition of Moss, Stallworth and Maroney starting we may be able now to over come a deficit of more than 11 points now. Perhaps make us explosive like the Colts and Chargers. As I mentioned in an earlier thread the Chargers did it 2 out of 3 times last year alone.

It would be nice, if we had to, to go toe to toe with the Chargers and Colts offensively. We have to play both of them in the regular season and our recent regular season matches were not pleasant. They jumped on us and that was that.

 

[PYPER]

very correlative. We don't tend to take many risks, so if we are down, it's because the team is definitely better than us.

Have you ever actually watched the Patriots play? BB is one of the most aggressive coaches out there. No team goes for it more often on 4th down.

In over 90% of all of their losses since 2003, the Patriots have turned the ball over AT LEAST four times.

When the Patriots lose, which isn't that often, they tend to give the game away. They're rarely ever simply beaten by another team.

They are a team that doesn't make many mistakes but when they do, they tend to make a lot of them at once. In 2003-2004, the Patriots lost a total of four games. In those four games they totaled 19 turnovers.

 

[PYPER]

I have noticed that during the Belichick era the Patriots tend to lose when the other team takes more than an 11 point lead any time during the game. What is it about our offense that we cannot over come leads like the Colts, Chargers, etc.?

I think it also has something to do with style. Keep in mind, we set the NFL record for the # of games scoring first. Offensively, we tend to start and finish strong and sort of coast in the middle portions of the game.

In the few games that where we've fallen behind by 11 plus points, we've usually fallen behind b/c we've turned the ball over so many times. In most, if not all, of those games, we turned the ball over four or five times.

It's almost as if after going a number of games without making mistakes, all of our mistakes tend to hit us at once in one game. These are the games where Brady's passes get deflected and picked off and Faulk does his fumbling thing. It's as if the universe is guided by some mathematical principle and eventually the odds are going to break against you.

Having said all that, there are a few other factors that weigh in on this issue.

1) In most of our games trailing by 11+, we were decimated with injuries in those games and were actually quite out-manned. Just about all of the 2005 losses fall under this factor, as well as the 04 loss to the Steelers.

2) Instability at WR. Our WR corps have always been a work in progress. Givens and Branch took a few years to develop and then they had some issues staying healthy. We really only had one or two seasons with them performing at peak level. Incidentally, those were the two seasons where we practically never trailed. 2006 is a prime example of this factor as Brady simply didn't have the weapons. The truth is that our 2006 team OVERACHIEVED. It amazes me that that team went 12-4 and came as close as they did to making the Super Bowl. It's a credit to them. This team has such a great collective personality. They play with so much heart and passion that they often win when they really shouldn't. That's how we beat the Rams in 2001 and I'd say the same thing about beating the Chargers last year.

OK, sorry to make it such a long post. I'm done.

);p

 

[rabthepat]

I think it also has something to do with style. Keep in mind, we set the NFL record for the # of games scoring first. Offensively, we tend to start and finish strong and sort of coast in the middle portions of the game.

In the few games that where we've fallen behind by 11 plus points, we've usually fallen behind b/c we've turned the ball over so many times. In most, if not all, of those games, we turned the ball over four or five times.

It's almost as if after going a number of games without making mistakes, all of our mistakes tend to hit us at once in one game. These are the games where Brady's passes get deflected and picked off and Faulk does his fumbling thing. It's as if the universe is guided by some mathematical principle and eventually the odds are going to break against you.

Having said all that, there are a few other factors that weigh in on this issue.

1) In most of our games trailing by 11+, we were decimated with injuries in those games and were actually quite out-manned. Just about all of the 2005 losses fall under this factor, as well as the 04 loss to the Steelers.

2) Instability at WR. Our WR corps have always been a work in progress. Givens and Branch took a few years to develop and then they had some issues staying healthy. We really only had one or two seasons with them performing at peak level. Incidentally, those were the two seasons where we practically never trailed. 2006 is a prime example of this factor as Brady simply didn't have the weapons. The truth is that our 2006 team OVERACHIEVED. It amazes me that that team went 12-4 and came as close as they did to making the Super Bowl. It's a credit to them. This team has such a great collective personality. They play with so much heart and passion that they often win when they really shouldn't. That's how we beat the Rams in 2001 and I'd say the same thing about beating the Chargers last year.

OK, sorry to make it such a long post. I'm done.

);p

I think you make a good point about the injuries. There were times I knew by who left the field injured that we were in trouble. Particularly when Ty Law left the Steelers game.