Terrified of our WR situation

[Lamanai]

They have 16.8 million before Arrington and Wilson as cap details not out yet. You can track cap space up to date at 2013 NFL Cap Tracker and click on the team, they already updated for Lloyd release and within hours seems to be updated and accurate

It also includes $2.25m for Brian Waters, which I do not believe should count...

According to the list, PIttsburgh has $13m left to play with. I was under the impression that Sanders would be easy to pluck due to the Steelers current cap situation. Something is missing in the equation...

 

[iapatsfan]

This is my take on the WR situation if they remain healthy this season and play 14+ games each I see no reason why Gronkowski and Hernandez cannot combine for 2000-2500 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.

So lets say with our running attack being more of a focus we'd be looking to a combination of Amendola, Sanders, Jones, Vereen, Ballard, Ridley, Washington, Hoomanawanui, Fells and anyone else we add for basically 1500-2000 yards and 10-15 touchdowns. Even if we go high side that's 222 yards and 1.66 touchdowns per player. Maybe I'm simplifying the situation.

You are simplifying the situation by assuming Gronkowski and Hernandez will be as effective with such a lack off threats to pull coverage off them. You are also assuming Sanders is on the team which is not the case yet. I cannot believe we will go into the season with a Bills throwaway and the Steelers third WR as our primary options on the outside.

There is no way BB can think we are ok at the WR position. There has to be a trade or something in the works, because we don't have enough draft picks to address the WR core and our terrible pass defense. That is especially the case if we do get Sanders and have to give up a third rounder.

 

[mgteich]

A signing of Sanders would be a lose-lose. The patriots would lose a week of significant cap space. The Steelers would likely end up matching and paying more than want to. Sanders will be fine, except for the resentment from the Steelers. Also, he would then be subject to being traded outside the bounds of RFA rules.

According to the list, PIttsburgh has $13m left to play with. I was under the impression that Sanders would be easy to pluck due to the Steelers current cap situation. Something is missing in the equation...

 

[Brady6]

You are counting on the following

A) that Sanders will be signed

B) that Hernandez will be healthy for fourteen or more games

C) that Gronkowski will be healthy for fourteen or more games

D) that Amendola will be healthy

E) that Sanders, Amendola and Jones will learn the system early and basically have career years.

IMHO, we need two more WR's.

I'm really only counting on A & B Gronk, AH playing at least 14 games. I am just asking the rest to contribute an average of 222 yards and 1.6 touchdowns each.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Also, he would then be subject to being traded outside the bounds of RFA rules.

Yes, he would, but how would the Squealers afford that?

 

[Brady6]

You are simplifying the situation by assuming Gronkowski and Hernandez will be as effective with such a lack off threats to pull coverage off them. You are also assuming Sanders is on the team which is not the case yet. I cannot believe we will go into the season with a Bills throwaway and the Steelers third WR as our primary options on the outside.

There is no way BB can think we are ok at the WR position. There has to be a trade or something in the works, because we don't have enough draft picks to address the WR core and our terrible pass defense. That is especially the case if we do get Sanders and have to give up a third rounder.

I think you spend you 1st round pick on Keenan Allen or another X type receiver and develop him. I think short term the WR group will be weaker but these moves were about the long term and they had to happen at some point.

Right you have Brady for 5 years so you give Welker 2-3 more years and then Brady is forced to adjust to a new group in his final 2 seasons. Makes more sense to do it now while we have a wider window with him. Welker was a great player but he was not lasting 5 more seasons.

 

[supafly]

It also includes $2.25m for Brian Waters, which I do not believe should count...

According to the list, PIttsburgh has $13m left to play with. I was under the impression that Sanders would be easy to pluck due to the Steelers current cap situation. Something is missing in the equation...

Those are just an approximate estimation of how the teams usually manage their contracts. It is not the official NFLPA records of actual cap hits.

Also, Pittsburgh restructured many pacts and pushed money into the future.
The missing part of the equation is nothing more than the perception of fans that they're in total cap hell, which is not true. They need to be cautious, but as you can see they have at least 12+ million in cap room at the moment.

Of course the way they've been doing business lately is a gamble, but it seems to be a gamble they are willing to take at the moment for their own personal reasons.

 

[supafly]

You are simplifying the situation by assuming Gronkowski and Hernandez will be as effective with such a lack off threats to pull coverage off them. You are also assuming Sanders is on the team which is not the case yet. I cannot believe we will go into the season with a Bills throwaway and the Steelers third WR as our primary options on the outside.

There is no way BB can think we are ok at the WR position. There has to be a trade or something in the works, because we don't have enough draft picks to address the WR core and our terrible pass defense. That is especially the case if we do get Sanders and have to give up a third rounder.

The fact is that Belichick will be bringing in a total of at least 4-5-6 more WRs for competition and depth.

Donald Jones may not even make the roster. I imagine that he would as a WR4 or something, but there's no guarantee.

People are acting like the players we're chooing at the moment are all going to start. That isn't even remotely the case. Last year we were going to have a WR corps of Chad Johnson, Anthony Gonzeles, Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth etc....How did that work out? How about Addai as our RB2, like people were suggesting?

Plenty of WR's will be added through the usual methods of the draft, FA, cap casualties/roster cuts, UDFA's, and maybe even trades. There's also the possibility that Belichick will try and develop one or more of our own in Aiken and Holmes too.

It's March 17th. The SB was played 6 weeks ago. We have 5+ months to make all of the necessary moves that may go into our WR corps, our DB grouping, and our DL depth. There will be plenty of additions of so called "names" that won't even make the team.

 

[mgteich]

Restructures of Polamalu, Woodley and Colon could add $8-9M to the cap monies that they already have available.

Yes, he would, but how would the Squealers afford that?

 

[Brady6]

Restructures of Polamalu, Woodley and Colon would add $8-9M to the cap monies that they already have available.

Isn't Colon gone to the NYJ?

 

[supafly]

They have 16.8 million before Arrington and Wilson as cap details not out yet. You can track cap space up to date at 2013 NFL Cap Tracker and click on the team, they already updated for Lloyd release and within hours seems to be updated and accurate

Sure, if you overlook the following statement located at the top of the page:

"Our numbers do not reflect the actual real-time cap numbers provided through the NFLPA, rather an estimation based on the team's current contracts.."

It's got Leon Washington's cap hit for 2013 at 1.5 million dollars....

It's a nice tool for approximation though, but to say that "within hours it seems to be updated and accurate" would be misleading. It may be fine at the moment to get an approximation of things though.

There are still cuts to be made to free up more space, there is still the Waters money of 2.25 that won't count, there is still the Fanane money of 2.5 million to possibly be recovered too, not to mention restructures and extensions that can take place if/when they need them to.

 

[Bruins29]

Right you have Brady for 5 years so you give Welker 2-3 more years and then Brady is forced to adjust to a new group in his final 2 seasons. Makes more sense to do it now while we have a wider window with him. Welker was a great player but he was not lasting 5 more seasons.

Jax,

This is a great point a lot of the WW guys miss. In 2-3 years (when WW would have most likely moved on) Brady may have to rely on his chemistry with his receiving group and make quicker adjustments and reads. He will be less mobile, have less arm strength, perhaps even less accuracy as he approaches his late 30s.

Now I hope none of this stuff happens but people age and slow down etc..

Plus in a couple of years as he is older he may not be as hungry as he is now...Granted it is tough to imagine TB not being hungry but the body and mind are mysterious things.

I am sure they were considering lets get TB in synch right now with his new units so that in a few years they wont have to put as much effort into it when TB might not be able to/ want to/ who knows.....

Its the old "its going to happen so lets make it happen now" kinda thing,

 

[mgteich]

The patriots are looking for a formula to help them score 20 points in each playoff game. Our running game is fine. Belichick is working on his continuing task of upgrading the defense.

But in the end, we need to be able to score 20 points in any playoff game. We also have to able to do this even with the injury to one or two of our skill players. After all, injuries happen.

Welker didn't really want to come back in a diminished role.

=======

In any case, we are VERY FAR from having an TOP passing game. The good news is that we are only 5 days into free agency. Given that everyone is new (hopefully almost everyone), we should carry 5 receivers, in addition to STer Slater.

We have Amendola, which is fine.

We have Jones, who wasn't even worth a signing bonus; I don't see why we would count on him at all, ALTHOUGH he certainly may beat out the half-dozen JAGs Belichick brings in for the Branch roster spot.

We seem to be dialed up for drafting a wide receiver. Given patriot history, I would consider the draftee to be the #5 receiver for now.
====
THE BOTTOM LINE is that we are short two receivers to replace Lloyd and Edelman.

Jax,

This is a great point a lot of the WW guys miss. In 2-3 years (when WW would have most likely moved on) Brady may have to rely on his chemistry with his receiving group and make quicker adjustments and reads. He will be less mobile, have less arm strength, perhaps even less accuracy as he approaches his late 30s.

Now I hope none of this stuff happens but people age and slow down etc..

Plus in a couple of years as he is older he may not be as hungry as he is now...Granted it is tough to imagine TB not being hungry but the body and mind are mysterious things.

I am sure they were considering lets get TB in synch right now with his new units so that in a few years they wont have to put as much effort into it when TB might not be able to/ want to/ who knows.....

Its the old "its going to happen so lets make it happen now" kinda thing,

 

[Bruins29]

====
THE BOTTOM LINE is that we are short two receivers to replace Lloyd and Edelman.

Definitely. They have some work to do. I wonder of Lloyd will be back on a cheaper deal if he finds out the market is soft. I would take JE back in a second.

But your point is all that matter. Under 20 points wasn't getting it done. Something had to change.

 

[iapatsfan]

I think you spend you 1st round pick on Keenan Allen or another X type receiver and develop him. I think short term the WR group will be weaker but these moves were about the long term and they had to happen at some point.

Right you have Brady for 5 years so you give Welker 2-3 more years and then Brady is forced to adjust to a new group in his final 2 seasons. Makes more sense to do it now while we have a wider window with him. Welker was a great player but he was not lasting 5 more seasons.

I am not worried about the WR group being weaker. I am worried about it being the worst WR group Brady has ever had to work with, and one of the worst in the entire league. As it stands now, we do not have a single WR that was even drafted (other than Ebert who I'm not counting).

 

[Brady6]

The patriots are looking for a formula to help them score 20 points in each playoff game. Our running game is fine. Belichick is working on his continuing task of upgrading the defense.

But in the end, we need to be able to score 20 points in any playoff game. We also have to able to do this even with the injury to one or two of our skill players. After all, injuries happen.

Welker didn't really want to come back in a diminished role.

=======

In any case, we are VERY FAR from having an TOP passing game. The good news is that we are only 5 days into free agency. Given that everyone is new (hopefully almost everyone), we should carry 5 receivers, in addition to STer Slater.

We have Amendola, which is fine.

We have Jones, who wasn't even worth a signing bonus; I don't see why we would count on him at all, ALTHOUGH he certainly may beat out the half-dozen JAGs Belichick brings in for the Branch roster spot.

We seem to be dialed up for drafting a wide receiver. Given patriot history, I would consider the draftee to be the #5 receiver for now.
====
THE BOTTOM LINE is that we are short two receivers to replace Lloyd and Edelman.

I really expect us to draft an X receiver that can make a day 1 impact. Whether we trade Mallett or a future draft pick to move up and take an Allen or someone else I cannot say. I compare the WR position to the RDE position last year we let Carter and Anderson walk brought in a JAG's just in case like Scott (WR = Donald Jones) but BB had a player he wanted and moved up to get him. I also think that BB is confident in Amendola/Sanders combo replacing Welker. I really believe there is a bigger plan for that X receiver position though and it is the draft IMO.

 

[Nehalem]

I am not worried about the WR group being weaker. I am worried about it being the worst WR group Brady has ever had to work with, and one of the worst in the entire league. As it stands now, we do not have a single WR that was even drafted (other than Ebert who I'm not counting).

How is that different than last year when we had Welker(undrafted), Edelman(7th), and Lloyd(I can't stick on a team).

Oh and Matt Slater (avg 0.2 rec/yr) and the corpse of Deion Branch.

 

[Brady6]

I am not worried about the WR group being weaker. I am worried about it being the worst WR group Brady has ever had to work with, and one of the worst in the entire league. As it stands now, we do not have a single WR that was even drafted (other than Ebert who I'm not counting).

Welker was undrafted and Lloyd was 4th rounder that can be very misleading. Listen if after the draft Donald Jones is the #1 X receiver then I will share your concerns but I strongly believe Donald Jones is a Trevor Scott type signing and BB is going to draft his Chandler Jones version of a outside WR.

 

[iapatsfan]

Welker was undrafted and Lloyd was 4th rounder that can be very misleading. Listen if after the draft Donald Jones is the #1 X receiver then I will share your concerns but I strongly believe Donald Jones is a Trevor Scott type signing and BB is going to draft his Chandler Jones version of a outside WR.

My problem is the team has glaring needs on D, and we don't have the draft picks to address both. If we sign Sanders, who has not shown a great deal of production, that leaves us with two meaningful draft picks. I know you can get lucky in the 7th, but the odds are not in your favor. How do we get a respectable WR core, and move up from the 29th ranked pass defense with the few draft picks we have?

 

[mgteich]

I will not consider Sanders until he is at least signed.

I really expect us to draft an X receiver that can make a day 1 impact. Whether we trade Mallett or a future draft pick to move up and take an Allen or someone else I cannot say. I compare the WR position to the RDE position last year we let Carter and Anderson walk brought in a JAG's just in case like Scott (WR = Donald Jones) but BB had a player he wanted and moved up to get him. I also think that BB is confident in Amendola/Sanders combo replacing Welker. I really believe there is a bigger plan for that X receiver position though and it is the draft IMO.