Team needs aside, who is worth #29 to you?

[Ochmed Jones]

I am not really sure it matters who is available at #29. unless one of the few red chip players falls unrealistically down to #29. This draft has 6 or 7 blue chip players at the top, but only about 10 to 12 red chip players for the middle of the first round. After that, there is very little separation in grades from #21 to #50.

Add in a class where QB's appear to be sliding down draft boards and it appears the perfect opportunity for BB to put #29 on the auction block.

The Texans will be taking a QB at #33 if they take Clowney at #1. How many teams call BB if Bridgewater or Manziel or Carr is available at #29?

 

[mgteich]

And how many teams will wait until 29 if one of the top 4 quarterbacks s available at 25? Won't teams try to start trading up for a quarterback once the red chippers are gone, at Pick 20 according to your analysis? After all, other teams should be willing to move down once the red chippers are gone.

We've all seen the no-trade scenarios where Bridgewater is available at 29. I just don't buy it. The quarterback needy teams will move up for the top 4.

What seems more likely is that someone will want to trade with us for a player that they consider a red-chipper that they want to have for 5 years, perhaps a Hageman or Tuitt. I suppose that someone could want to trade with us and pick Garappolo.

The Texans will be taking a QB at #33 if they take Clowney at #1. How many teams call BB if Bridgewater or Manziel or Carr is available at #29?

 

[Huckleberry1]

Overall the Patriots need to stick to a best player approach to the draft because they have too many needs and consistently reaching for needs will leave them with a weaker roster in coming years. That doesn't mean that need is completely out of the equation and if Austin Sefarian-jenkins was available at #29 then I would take him because i think that TE is their greatest need and critical to getting another ring before Brady retires. The list, in order, of who I would take at #29 is as follows:

1) Austin Sefarian-Jenkins TE Washington - Sefarian-Jenkins gives the Patriots what they need most imo, a replacement for hernandez and a jimmy Graham type receiver who would complement Gronkowski perfectly and give them a number of red zone threats that would make them incredibly difficult to stop.

2) Ryan Shazier LB Ohio State - This was a tough call for me but ultimately i think Shazier could be a star in the making and provide them with the athleticism they need at LB. he would step into their LB rotation immediately and give them the flexibility to use different looks and LB sets, and if Hightower doesn't step up they could go with mayo in the middle and Collins and Shazier on the outside.

3) Xavier Sua-Filo OG UCLA - Not the sexiest pick but Sua-Filo would start from day one and give their interior OL a serious upgrade. they would still have a need at Center but with mankins and Sua-Filo at Guard and Solder and Vollmer at Tackle they would have 4/5ths of an excellent OL. OG is a need but the pick is more about who will become a great player and imo Sua-Filo is going to be a long term Pro Bowl caliber OG.

4) Jimmy Ward S - Northern Illinois _I don't see their defensive backfield as a need but Ward is another prospect who could become a long term star in the right system and he would completely fill out their defensive backfield, give them versatility on the unit and in all likelihood the best secondary in football. What a change for the better that would be.

5) Louis Nix DT Notre Dame - If i were going by need Nix would be the pick over Ward but I think he is more likely to be a steady quality performer but his upside wouldn't be as high as Ward's is. However at this point i think Nix is the best player available if he is there and the likelihood of him becoming a really good pro is better Hagemann's

6) Stephen Tuitt DL Notre Dame - Much like Nix i think Tuitt is going to be a consistent and steady performer as a pro, i think his upside could be higher but there's a little more boom or bust than Nix. he would be able to address two needs for them as they need help at both DE and DT and he can play both.

7) Ra'Sheed Hagemann- DT Minnesota - Hagemann has a big time upside but is the riskiest of the interior DL picks I have for them. he could be a star or he could never realize his potential consistently and wash out. At this point i would take the risk.

8) Kyle Fuller CB West Virginia CB is not a need but you can never have enough really good ones . Fuller is the best player on the board at this point and he should be a good pro CB.

 

[patchick]

Well, I like the creativity and the Angle of your Idea, but ~ speaking for myself ~ I was daunted by your Condition that an hand-picked list of Prospects were "off the List". That meant that in order for me to give you a useful answer, I'd have to rack my brain, position by position, toggling back and forth endlessly to see if I was meeting your hand-picked Criteria. No way in Hell I'm working that hard when it could've been far, far easier:

Were you instead to approach it by saying something like "Going by CBS's Ranking, with the following exceptions, because my studies tell me that they're realistically gone by #29", you wouldn't be forcing us to choose between working our assets off for no good reason or simply ignoring what seems to me to be a needlessly complicated question. We could simply consult the CBS Grid in one Screen, while excluding your Exceptions.

I was trying to do even better than what you suggested. Any single ranking is just a plaything; you just end up with everybody trying to game the system by finding outliers in that ranking. ("Aha, Eric Ebron is #23 on their list so he counts, I pick him! Done!")

I tried to eliminate that by identifying 21 players who were all long gone on 11 different mocks, then making it easy on you by listing the 15 other players who were most often taken in the 1st. It's ok, you don't have to thank me.

 

[bbell31]

Shazier, Hyde, or Aaron Donald is my guess for our first pick if we stay put or trade up. Altho, I could c a trade back or a trade of players like Amendola, Mallett, Arrington, etc and then stuff gets crazy......I like ASJ, Easley in late 2nd, Van Noy, Tripp, Pierre Louis, whole lot of OL, TE, RBS n middle rounds but I think our biggest needs r RB, Lb/de depth, and DT

 

[Off The Grid]

LOL! I should have known it would be impossible to have an "ignore who you want for the Patriots" thread. Even I couldn't do it.

FWIW, I was trying to tease apart player caliber and team needs in order to take a longer view. While I know the 2014 Patriots have needs, with a 1st-round pick I'm more concerned about getting a long-term impact player -- the kind of guy we'll be building around 3 and 4 years down the line.

IMO the 4-3 DEs, the TEs and probably OLs available at #29 wouldn't be serious considerations if it weren't for perceived need. Ergo, I don't want them there. The highest caliber possibilities seem to be at DT, LB, DB and WR.

Well, I like the creativity and the Angle of your Idea, but ~ speaking for myself ~ I was daunted by your Condition that an hand-picked list of Prospects were "off the List". That meant that in order for me to give you a useful answer, I'd have to rack my brain, position by position, toggling back and forth endlessly to see if I was meeting your hand-picked Criteria. No way in Hell I'm working that hard when it could've been far, far easier:

Were you instead to approach it by saying something like "Going by CBS's Ranking, with the following exceptions, because my studies tell me that they're realistically gone by #29", you wouldn't be forcing us to choose between working our assets off for no good reason or simply ignoring what seems to me to be a needlessly complicated question. We could simply consult the CBS Grid in one Screen, while excluding your Exceptions.

I, for one, would enthusiastically embrace the Endeavor. Once More Unto The Breach??

Your Devoted Servant

Fanatical Yankee

I was trying to do even better than what you suggested. Any single ranking is just a plaything;

you just end up with everybody trying to game the system by finding outliers in that ranking. ("Aha, Eric Ebron is #23 on their list so he counts, I pick him! Done!")

I tried to eliminate that by identifying 21 players who were all long gone on 11 different mocks, then making it easy on you by listing the 15 other players who were most often taken in the 1st. It's ok, you don't have to thank me.

Ah, no.

As I specifically suggested:

"Were you instead to approach it by saying something like "Going by CBS's Ranking, with the following exceptions, because my studies tell me that they're realistically gone by #29", you wouldn't be forcing us to choose between working our assets off for no good reason or simply ignoring what seems to me to be a needlessly complicated question. We could simply consult the CBS Grid in one Screen, while excluding your Exceptions."

So much for Gaming the System.

If you just wanted us to select from that list of 15, you should've said so. And if that list of 15 was just a starting point, why bother? My point ~ that you went to a lot of trouble to make this as difficult as possible ~ still stands, I think. My first choice, for starters, isn't even on your list of 15.

I don't mean to rain on your parade: I was offering some helpful advice for taking a 3rd shot at this, because you're obviously interested in starting a discussion about who might realistically be available at #29 and who we (A) like at that spot and (B) like at that spot specifically for the Patriots, as you've indicated in the two Threads.

The CBS List is not a plaything so much as it's an extremely useful Point of Reference.

I don't know why you object to simply saying "OK, these guys (A, B, C, et cetera) are listed lower than #29 on the CBS List, but my studies tell me that they're likely actually gone by #29, so I'm asking you to exclude them. Other than that, who in this highly useful and nearly comprehensive List do you like at #29?"

Honestly, I'm baffled that a Lady of your well-documented Intelligence would object to this approach.

 

[bbell31]

Shazier, Donald, Hyde, Sankey or trade back